• Environmental Engineering Research
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• 제21권2호
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• pp.171-179
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• 2016

This study analyzes guidelines to select optimum number of grids to represent behavior of a given water system appropriately. The EFDC model was chosen as a 3-D hydrodynamic and water quality model and salt was chosen as a surrogate variable of pollutant. The model is applied to an artificial canal that receives salt water from coastal area and fresh water from a river from respective gate according to previously developed gate operation rule. Grids are subdivided in vertical and horizontal (longitudinal) directions, respectively until no significant changes are found in salinity concentrations. The optimum grid size was determined by comparing errors in average salt concentrations between a test grid systems against the most complicated grid system. MSE (mean squared error) and MAE (mean absolute error) are used to compare errors. The CFL (Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy) number was used to determine the optimum number of grid systems for the study site though it can be used when explicit numerical method is applied only. This study suggests errors seem acceptable when both MSE and MAE are less than unity approximately.

• 산경연구논집
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• 제8권4호
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• pp.15-21
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• 2017

Purpose - In this work, we examined the causal relationship between credit loans from households (CLH), loan collateralized with housing (LCH) and an interest of certificate of deposit (ICD) among others in South Korea. Furthermore, the optimal forecasts on the underlying model will be obtained and have the potential for applications in the economic field. Research design, data, and methodology - A total of 31 realizations sampled from the 4th quarter in 2008 to the 4th quarter in 2016 was chosen for this research. To achieve the purpose of this study, a regression model with correlated errors was exploited. Furthermore, goodness-of-fit measures was used as tools of optimal model-construction. Results - We found that by applying the regression model with errors component ARMA(1,5) to CLH, the steep and lasting rise can be expected over the next year, with moderate increase of LCH and ICD. Conclusions - Based on 2017-2018 forecasts for CLH, the precipitous and lasting increase can be expected over the next two years, with gradual rise of two major explanatory variables. By affording the assumption that the feedback among variables can exist, we can, in the future, consider more generalized models such as vector autoregressive model and structural equation model, to name a few.

• Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering
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• 제1권2호
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• pp.73-80
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• 2000

Aerodynamics in a naturally ventilated multi-span greenhouse with plants was analyzed numerically by the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation. To investigate the potential application of CFD techniques to greenhouse design and analysis, the numerical results of the CFD model were compared with the results of a steady-state mass and energy balance numerical model. Assuming the results of the mass and energy balance model as the standard, reasonably good agreement was obtained between the natural ventilation rates computed by the CFD numerical model and the mass and energy balance model. The steady-state CFD model during a sunny day showed negative errors as high as 15% in the morning and comparable positive errors in the afternoon. Such errors assumed to be due to heat storage in the floor, benches, and greenhouse structure. For a west wind of 2.5 m s$^{-1}$ , the internal nonporous shading screens that opened to the east were predicted to have a 15.6% better air exchange rate than opened to the west. It was generally predicted that the presence of nonporous internal shading screens significantly reduced natural ventilation if the horizontal opening of the screen for each span was smaller that the effective roof vent opening.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제20권2호
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• pp.200-209
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• 2019

미래 값을 예측할 때, 학습 오차(training error)를 최소화하여 추정된 모형은 보통 많은 테스트 오차(test error)를 야기할 수 있다. 이것은 추정 모델이 주어진 데이터 집합에만 집중하여 발생하는 모델 복잡성에 따른 과적합(overfitting) 문제이다. 일부 정규화 및 리샘플링 방법은 이 문제를 완화하여 테스트 오차를 줄이기 위해 도입되었지만, 이 방법들 또한 주어진 데이터 집합에서만 국한 되도록 설계되었다. 본 논문에서는 테스트 오차 최소화 문제를 학습 오차 최소화 문제로 변환하여 테스트 오차를 줄이기 위한 새로운 최적화 방법을 제안한다. 이 변환을 수행하기 위해 주어진 데이터 집합에 대해 의사(pseudo) 데이터라고 하는 새로운 데이터를 추가하였다. 그리고 적절한 의사 데이터를 만들기 위해 결측 데이터 보정법의 세 가지 유형을 사용하였다. 예측 모델로서 선형회귀모형, 자기회귀모형, ridge 회귀모형을 사용하고 이 모형들에 의사 데이터 방법을 적용하였다. 또한, 의사 데이터로 조정된 최적화 방법을 활용하여 환경 데이터 및 금융 데이터에 적용한 사례를 제시하였다. 결과적으로 이 논문에서 제시된 방법은 원래의 예측 모형보다 테스트 오차를 감소시키는 것으로 나타났다.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제34권5호
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• pp.476-488
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• 2016

이 연구에서는 교통수요예측의 신뢰성에 영향을 미치는 요소와 원인을 검토하였다. 통행의 다양성과 불규칙성, 입력자료 한계, 자료의 집합화, 모형의 단순화가 포괄적 의미에서 교통예측 오차원인이 된다. 또한 불가피하게 존재하는 예측 오차의 이론적 배경을 정확히 규명함으로써 예측결과를 실무적 정책결정에 활용할 시에 합리적 판단을 하는데 도움이 되도록 하였다. 본 연구에서는 특히 노선배정모형의 예측 오차의 요인에 초점을 두고, KTDB 자료기반 분석오차를 6개 항목으로 나누어 설명하였다. 즉, (1) 입력 자료의 오차, (2) 공간 집합화와 네트워크 표현방식에 따른 오차, (3) 교통패턴 변동에 대한 대푯값 설정에 따른 오차, (4) 교통류모형 단순화에 따른 오차, (5) 노선선택 행태 집합화에 따른 오차로 구분하여 설명하였다.

• 한국정보과학회논문지:소프트웨어및응용
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• 제34권2호
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• pp.131-139
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• 2007

본 논문에서는 띄어쓰기 오류와 철자 오류를 동시에 교정 가능한 전처리기를 제안한다. 제시된 알고리즘은 기존의 전처리기 알고리즘이 각 오류를 따로 해결하는 데에서 오는 한계를 극복하고, 기존의 noisy-channel model을 확장하여 대화체의 띄어쓰기 오류와 철자 오류를 동시에 효과적으로 교정할 수 있다. N-gram과 자소변환확률 등의 통계적 방법과 어절변환패턴 사전을 이용하여 최대한 사전을 적게 이용하면서도 효과적으로 교정 후보들을 생성할 수 있다. 실험을 통해 현재 단계에서는 만족할 만한 성능을 얻지는 못하였지만 오류 분석을 통하여 이와 같은 방법론이 실제로 효용성이 있음을 알 수 있었고 앞으로 더 많은 개선을 통해 일상적인 대화체 문장에 대해서 효과적인 전처리기로서 기능할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제10권4_5호
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• pp.485-499
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• 2012

Mode shape expansion is useful in structural dynamic studies such as vibration based structural health monitoring; however most existing expansion methods can not consider the modelling errors in the finite element model and the measurement uncertainty in the modal properties identified from vibration data. This paper presents a reliable approach for expanding mode shapes with consideration of both the errors in analytical model and noise in measured modal data. The proposed approach takes the perturbed force as an unknown vector that contains the discrepancies in structural parameters between the analytical model and tested structure. A regularisation algorithm based on the Tikhonov solution incorporating the L-curve criterion is adopted to reduce the influence of measurement uncertainties and to produce smooth and optimised expansion estimates in the least squares sense. The Canton Tower benchmark problem established by the Hong Kong Polytechnic University is then utilised to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed expansion approach to the actual structure. The results from the benchmark problem studies show that the proposed approach can provide reliable predictions of mode shape expansion using only limited information on the operational modal data identified from the recorded ambient vibration measurements.

• 한국군사과학기술학회지
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• 제17권3호
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• pp.350-357
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• 2014

MRDS is a short range missile/rocket defense system which protects a main battle tank(MBT) from threats at a short range. It is composed of 2 radars, 2 infrared trackers(IRT)s, 1 fire control computer(FCC), 2 launchers and countermeasures. In this paper, the radar and the IRT models based on sensing errors, the FCC model based on filtering errors, the launcher model based on driving errors and the countermeasure model based on flying errors are proposed to analyze the defense performance with the approaching RPG-7 and the moving MBT. The simulation results are presented to evaluate and verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2010년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.2309-2318
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• 2010

It is a plan the government increases a railroad section SOC investment, and to activate railroad construction while a railroad wins the spotlight with green transportation. But an error of the demand forecast that is a base of a railroad investment evaluation follows in occurring big, there is it with an operation with an obstacle of a railroad investment. Case of the Incheon International Airport Railroad which went into operation recently, While a present transportation demand showed about 10% than a demand forecasted in a past conference, it was magnified in a social problem. A lot of research was gone on in road project about traffic demand forecast and error, a study to find out the error cause is an insufficient situation although errors of a railroad occurs big. So, this study looked for errors and causes about trip generation model and modes sharing model of railroad demand forecast but it was defined causes so that it can occur similar problems in the future. Especially it investigated causes after comparing rate of development plan for the realization and O/D size in trip generation model and after comparing rate of modes sharing of past and current and conducting a survey for airport users. In conclusion, it suggested method to reduce errors of railroad demand forecasting in the future.

• 제어로봇시스템학회논문지
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• 제14권6호
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• pp.595-602
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• 2008

In this paper, performance of the initial alignment for INS whose attitude is not leveled is investigated. Observability of the initial alignment filter is analyzed and estimation errors of the estimated state variables are derived. First, the observability is analyzed using the rank test of observability matrix and the normalized error covariance of the Kalman filter based on the 10-state model. In result, it can be seen that the accelerometer biases on horizontal axes are unobservable. Second, the steady-state estimation errors of the state variables are derived using the observability equation. It is verified that the estimates of the state variables have errors due to the unobservable state variables and the non-leveling tilt angles of a vehicle containing the INS. Especially, this paper shows that the larger the tilt angles of the vehicle are, the larger the estimation errors corresponding to the sensor biases are. Finally, it is shown that the performance of the 8-state model excepting the accelerometer biases on horizontal axes is better than that of the 10-state model in the initial alignment by simulation.