• Title/Summary/Keyword: market cycle

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Cash Flow Anomalies Associated with Business Conditions in Korean Stock Market

  • Yoon, Bo-Hyun;Son, Sam-Ho
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.61-69
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    • 2014
  • Purpose - Many studies report that returns on hedge portfolios that eliminate particular risk types are abnormal from traditional asset pricing models' perspectives. This study examines the pervasiveness of anomalous returns conditioned on business cycle and group size. Research design, data, and methodology - Using KOSPI and KOSDAQ market data from July 1991 to December 2013, we categorize stocks into appropriately sized groups, and dichotomize our sample periods into expansion and recession periods then, we construct hedge portfolios by sorting stocks by anomaly variables and calculate their returns. Results - Four anomalies, including earnings yield, net stock issue, total asset growth, and liquidity appear pervasive across all groups for the entire sample period. However, only the hedge returns of net stock issues are significant across all group sizes during both expansion and recession. Conclusions - A net stock issue can be an appropriate proxy for expected growth of book equity for all group sizes in recessions. This finding could provide insights to investment industry participants and to researchers interested in the relationship between expected growth of book equity and business cycle risk.

A Study on The Business Cycle Theory of Tugan-Baranowsky (투간 바라노프스키의 경기 변동론에 대한 연구)

  • Ryu, Seung-min
    • 사회경제평론
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.71-98
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    • 2016
  • This study reveals the followings in the Tugan's business cycle thoery. First, Tugan tried to construct a business cycle theory based on his market theory. But Tugan' theory is lack of logical consistency. Second, Tugan's critics as well as defenders did not understand his theoretical error. Underconsumption theorists did not evaluate Tugan's periodical crisis theory while only criticizing Tugan's crisis theory neglected a consumption. Bauer developed Tugan's periodical crisis by using the reproduction scheme including a hoarded money. Hilferding only constructed a theory of crisis properly criticizing Tugan's crisis theory on the basis of Marx's concept of crisis.

Constrained NLS Method for Long-term Forecasting with Short-term Demand Data of a New Product (제약적 NLS 방법을 이용한 출시 초기 신제품의 중장기 수요 예측 방안)

  • Hong, Jungsik;Koo, Hoonyoung
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.45-59
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    • 2013
  • A long-term forecasting method for a new product in early stage of diffusion is proposed. The method includes a constrained non-linear least square estimation with the logistic diffusion model. The constraints would be critical market informations such as market potential, peak point, and take-off. Findings on 20 cases having almost full life cycle are that (i) combining any market information improves the forecasting accuracy, (ii) market potential is the most stable information, and (iii) peak point and take-off information have negative effect in case of overestimation.

Reliability Analysis for Price Forecasting of Chinese Cabbage (신뢰성 해석기법을 이용한 배추 가격 예측 모형의 개발)

  • Suh, Kyo;Kim, Tae-Gon;Lee, Jeong-Jae
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.71-79
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    • 2008
  • Generally the price of agricultural products has much different characteristics from that of manufacturing products. If products have the limitation of long-term storage and the short period of cultivation, the price of products can be more unstable. Moreover, the price forecasting is very difficult because it doesn't follow any cycle or trend. However price can be regarded as risk instead of uncertainty if we can calculate the probability of price. Reliability analysis techniques are used for forecasting the price change of Chinese cabbage. This study aims to show the usability of reliability analysis for price forecasting. A price-forecasting model was developed based on weather data of the first 10 days of the full cultivating cycle (80 days) 70 days and the average price and standard deviation of wholesale market prices from 1996 to 2001 and applied to forecast the boom price, or the orice which is over the tolerance of market prices, of upland Chinese cabbage in 2002 and 2003. Applied results showed the possibility of boom price forecasting using reliability analysis techniques.

The Present State of E-Business according to the Establishment Year and the Sales Approach of Dongdaemun Clothing Market (동대문(東大門) 의류시장(衣類市場)의 설립년도(設立年度)와 판매방식(販賣方式)의 차이(差異)에 따른 전자상거래(電子商去來) 현황(現況))

  • Park, Hea-Ryung;Park, Mi-Ryung
    • Journal of Fashion Business
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    • v.6 no.5
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    • pp.125-135
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    • 2002
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the present state of e-business according to the establishment year and the sales approach of Dongdaemun clothing market and to present problems according to e-business activation of it and its developmental direction. The subjects for this study were selected out of Dongdaemun clothing markets being considered as more fashion-oriented markets and were divided into two categories both according to the establishment year and according to the sales approach. As a result, Dongdaemun clothing markets are mainly divided into traditional wholesale market, eastern wholesale & retail market, and western retail market and having dealings with each other according to the market's characteristics. The utility percentage of on-line e-business according to the establishment year and the sales approach showed that traditional wholesale market was 42%, eastern wholesale & retail market 0.75%, and western retail market 11%. This result indicated that the utility percentage of traditional wholesale market showed much higher than eastern wholesale & retail market and western retail market. This would be because the structural characteristics of clothing market delayed the utility of e-business. For the problems on the utility of on-line e-business through counselling, traditional wholesale market showed much higher than wholesale & retail market and retail market because it had little problems on design imitation in retail market due to export by order and mass production. The problems of low utility of on-line e-business in Dongdaemun clothing market would result from well-timed on-line update according to rapid goods cycle, constant satisfaction for additional order, standardization of size and quality, and inexpensive internet purchase despite of express expense.

Estimation of Semiconductor Market, Using NLS Diffusion Model (비선형회귀 확산모형을 이용한 반도체 시장수요 추정)

  • Kim, Gene;Khoe, Kyung-Il
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.141-147
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    • 2014
  • Diffusion model is popular research topic in marketing and economy particularly for the areas of model specification and market size forecasting. In particular, Bass model can explain Roger's innovation diffusion and product life cycle through easy mathematical representation and hence the model has been widely used for the explanation of adopting innovative new products and technologies. Nonetheless, there're only a couple of pioneering researches about semiconductor market, using diffusion models. Consequently, we'd utilise NLS approach diffusion model to estimate the market potential of MOSFET, major switching device for power management of system, and explain the process to industry stakeholders and policy makers for delivery of managerial implication with pragmatic purpose.

A Study on Sizing System of the Domestic and Overseas Cycle Wear Brands (국내외 사이클 웨어 브랜드의 치수체계 조사)

  • Park, Hyunjeong;Do, Wolhee
    • Fashion & Textile Research Journal
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.647-657
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    • 2016
  • This study investigated domestic and foreign cycle wear sizing systems for the domestic market and provided basic data for development of a high functional cycle wear with excellent fitness qualities. Each brand was found to have different dimension items and different sizes as well as size deviation and range according to each item. Therefore, a size selected by referring to the dimension items would be expected to have confusion when selecting a size. Domestic brands are able to selects sizes relatively easily because they suggest sizes mainly by height and weight (which are a universal size). However, the development of a sizing system for domestic cycle wear brands is needed because each brand have different sizes according to its dimension items. Foreign brands are also different from domestic brands in size marking items and sizes according to items. Therefore, the establishment of a sizing system standard for foreign brands is necessary because there could be a problem with fitness in the same sizes selected for domestic brands. Cycle wear is also able to cover various body types due to the elasticity of its material; however, and evaluation of fitness and a follow-up study will be necessary to develop cycle wear with a fitness that is proper for a Korean body type.

A Study on Office Rental Cycle and Time-Varying Regression Parameters of Rental Determinants in Hedonic Price Model (오피스 임대료 하락기 및 상승기의 임대료 결정모형 회귀모수의 변화 - 서울시 강남과 도심권역을 중심으로 -)

  • Choi, Jonggeun;Kim, Suhkyong
    • Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.3-17
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    • 2018
  • This paper empirically investigates time-varying regression parameter of hedonic price model for Seoul office rental market in distinct periods of a market cycle. Office rental index is constructed and the index indicates that the global financial crisis differentiates the analysis period into decline stage and recovery stage. Pre-crisis period is classified into decline stage and post-crisis is classified into recovery stage. Structural break-point test suggests structural change of hedonic model of rent determinants occurred in 2008. Evidence indicates that individual regression parameters of hedonic price model for decline stage are significantly different from those for recovery stage. Changes in the regression parameters of land price, distance to metro, building size, building age, and conversion rate are consistent. In recovery stage, the effect of locational advantage on office rent decreases whereas the effect of building characteristics on the rent increases.

Effect of Risk Factors on the Management of Working Capital in Hospital Management (병원경영의 위험요인이 운전자본 관리에 미치는 영향)

  • Ha, Au-Hyun
    • Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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    • v.10 no.8
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    • pp.187-193
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    • 2020
  • This study analyzed how risk factors in management affect the management of working capital in general hospitals in Korea. The data used accounting information for three years (2016~2017 and 2018) of 271 general hospitals using the medical institution accounting information disclosure system. The independent variables were the working capital level and the cash conversion cycle, The dependent variables were operational risk and market risk, Control variables were selected as components of working capital(cash, accounts receivable, inventory assets, accounts payable). According to the study, the lower the operational risk, the higher the level of working capital hospitals in Korea. Working capital decisions were confirmed to be attributable to operating risks, cash, inventory assets and accounts payable. And the lower the market risk (Operating Margin), the higher the cash conversion cycle. Therefore, it is necessary to review appropriate management measures of operational risks, cash, inventory assets and accounts payable identified as operating capital determinants so that medical institutions can also have economic response capabilities in consideration of the specificity of their operations.

Analysis of Life Cycle Assessment of Renovation Building Through Case Study (리모델링 건축물의 전과정 탄소배출량 사례 평가 분석)

  • Lim, Hyojin;Jang, Hyeongjae;Tae, Sungho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2022.04a
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    • pp.47-48
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    • 2022
  • In Korea, construction and development has been continued rapidly since the 1970s, and the reconstruction and renovation market has recently been activated to improve old buildings. Most of the environmental evaluation of reconstruction and renovation projects is focused on the use of operating energy, and It is necessary to analyze carbon emissions throughout the life cycle for a comprehensive evaluation of reconstruction and remodeling projects. Therefore, this study quantitatively predicted carbon emissions from reconstruction and renovation based on ISO 14040s through case analysis for the purpose of evaluating the carbon emissions of renovated buildings from the perspective of the whole life cycle. In additional, the amount of carbon savings of each was analyzed through comparison with existing building.

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