• Asia pacific journal of information systems
• /
• v.24 no.2
• /
• pp.233-253
• /
• 2014

Can the stock market really be predicted? Stock market prediction has attracted much attention from many fields including business, economics, statistics, and mathematics. Early research on stock market prediction was based on random walk theory (RWT) and the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). According to the EMH, stock market are largely driven by new information rather than present and past prices. Since it is unpredictable, stock market will follow a random walk. Even though these theories, Schumaker [2010] asserted that people keep trying to predict the stock market by using artificial intelligence, statistical estimates, and mathematical models. Mathematical approaches include Percolation Methods, Log-Periodic Oscillations and Wavelet Transforms to model future prices. Examples of artificial intelligence approaches that deals with optimization and machine learning are Genetic Algorithms, Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Neural Networks. Statistical approaches typically predicts the future by using past stock market data. Recently, financial engineers have started to predict the stock prices movement pattern by using the SNS data. SNS is the place where peoples opinions and ideas are freely flow and affect others' beliefs on certain things. Through word-of-mouth in SNS, people share product usage experiences, subjective feelings, and commonly accompanying sentiment or mood with others. An increasing number of empirical analyses of sentiment and mood are based on textual collections of public user generated data on the web. The Opinion mining is one domain of the data mining fields extracting public opinions exposed in SNS by utilizing data mining. There have been many studies on the issues of opinion mining from Web sources such as product reviews, forum posts and blogs. In relation to this literatures, we are trying to understand the effects of SNS exposures of firms on stock prices in Korea. Similarly to Bollen et al. [2011], we empirically analyze the impact of SNS exposures on stock return rates. We use Social Metrics by Daum Soft, an SNS big data analysis company in Korea. Social Metrics provides trends and public opinions in Twitter and blogs by using natural language process and analysis tools. It collects the sentences circulated in the Twitter in real time, and breaks down these sentences into the word units and then extracts keywords. In this study, we classify firms' exposures in SNS into two groups: positive and negative. To test the correlation and causation relationship between SNS exposures and stock price returns, we first collect 252 firms' stock prices and KRX100 index in the Korea Stock Exchange (KRX) from May 25, 2012 to September 1, 2012. We also gather the public attitudes (positive, negative) about these firms from Social Metrics over the same period of time. We conduct regression analysis between stock prices and the number of SNS exposures. Having checked the correlation between the two variables, we perform Granger causality test to see the causation direction between the two variables. The research result is that the number of total SNS exposures is positively related with stock market returns. The number of positive mentions of has also positive relationship with stock market returns. Contrarily, the number of negative mentions has negative relationship with stock market returns, but this relationship is statistically not significant. This means that the impact of positive mentions is statistically bigger than the impact of negative mentions. We also investigate whether the impacts are moderated by industry type and firm's size. We find that the SNS exposures impacts are bigger for IT firms than for non-IT firms, and bigger for small sized firms than for large sized firms. The results of Granger causality test shows change of stock price return is caused by SNS exposures, while the causation of the other way round is not significant. Therefore the correlation relationship between SNS exposures and stock prices has uni-direction causality. The more a firm is exposed in SNS, the more is the stock price likely to increase, while stock price changes may not cause more SNS mentions.

• Progress in Medical Physics
• /
• v.2 no.2
• /
• pp.109-120
• /
• 1991

Total body irradiation is operated to irradicate malignant cells of bone marrow of patients to be treated with bone marrow transplantation. Field size of a linear accelerator or cobalt teletherapy unit with normal geometry for routine technique is too small to cover whole body of a patient. So, any special method to cover patient whole body must be developed. Because such environments as room conditions and machine design are not universal, some characteristic method of TBI for each hospital could be developed. At Seoul National University Hospital, at present, only a cobalt unit is available for TBI because source head of the unit could be tilted. When the head is tilted outward by 90$^{\circ}$, beam direction is horizontal and perpendicular to opposite wall. Then, the distance from cobalt source to the wall was 319 cm. Provided that the distance from the wall to midsagittal plane of a patient is 40cm, nominal field size at the plane(SCD 279cm) is 122cm$\times$122cm but field size by measurement of exposure profile was 130cm$\times$129cm and vertical profile was not symmetric. That field size is large enough to cover total body of a patient when he rests on a couch in a squatting posture. Assuming that average lateral width of patients is 30cm, percent depth dose for SSD 264cm and nominal field size 115.5cm$\times$115.5cm was measured with a plane-parallel chamber in a polystyrene phantom and was linear over depth range 10～20cm. An anthropomorphic phantom of size 25cm wide and 30cm deep. Depth of dose maximum, surface dose and depth of 50% dose were 0.3cm, 82% and 16.9cm, respectively. A dose profile on beam axis for two opposing beams was uniform within 10% for mid-depth dose. Tissue phantom ratio with reference depth 15cm for maximum field size at SCD 279cm was measured in a small polystyrene phantom and was linear over depth range 10～20cm. An anthropomorphic phantom with TLD chips inserted in holes on the largest coronal plane was bilaterally irradiated by 15 minute in each direction by cobalt beam aixs in line with the cross line of the coronal plane and contact surface of sections No. 27 and 28. When doses were normalized with dose at mid-depth on beam axis, doses in head/neck, abdomen and lower lung region were close to reference dose within $\pm$ 10% but doses in upper lung, shoulder and pelvis region were lower than 10% from reference dose. Particulaly, doses in shoulder region were lower than 30%. On this result, the conclusion such that under a geometric condition for TBI with cobalt beam as SNUH radiotherapy departement, compensators for head/neck and lung shielding are not required but boost irradiation to shoulder is required could be induced.

• The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
• /
• v.35
• /
• pp.7-13
• /
• 2023

Purpose: In this study, we evaluated the effect of using a customized bolus on dose delivery in the treatment plan when cervical cancer protruded out of the body along with the uterus and evaluated reproducibility in patient set-up. Materials & Methods: The treatment plan used the Eclipse Treatment Planning System (Version 15.5.0, Varian, USA) and the treatment machine was VitalBeam (Varian Medical Systems, USA). The radiotherapy technique used 6 MV energy in the AP/PA direction with 3D-CRT. The prescribed dose is 1.8 Gy/fx and the total dose is 50.4 Gy/28 fx. Semiflex TM31010 (PTW, Germany) was used as the ion chamber, and the dose distribution was analyzed and evaluated by comparing the planned and measured dose according to each position movement and the tumor center dose. The first measurement was performed at the center by applying a customized bolus to the phantom, and the measurement was performed while moving in the range of -2 cm to +2 cm in the X, Y, and Z directions from the center assuming a positional error. It was measured at intervals of 0.5 cm, the Y-axis direction was measured up to ±3 cm, and the situation in which Bolus was set-up incorrectly was also measured. The measured doses were compared based on doses corrected to CT Hounsfield Unit (HU) 240 of silicon instead of the phantom's air cavity. Result: The treatment dose distribution was uniform when the customized bolus was used, and there was no significant difference between the prescribed dose and the actual measured value even when positional errors occurred. It was confirmed that the existing sheet-type bolus is difficult to compensate for irregularly shaped tumors protruding outside the body, but customized Bolus is found to be useful in delivering treatment doses uniformly.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
• /
• v.25 no.6
• /
• pp.583-603
• /
• 2023

Recently, the advancement of mechanical tunnel boring machine (TBM) technology and the characteristics of subsea railway tunnels subjected to hydrostatic pressure have led to the widespread application of shield TBM methods in the design and construction of subsea railway tunnels. Subsea railway tunnels are exposed in a constant pore water pressure and are influenced by the amplification of seismic waves during earthquake. In particular, seismic loads acting on subsea railway tunnels under various ground conditions such as soft ground, soft soil-rock composite ground, and fractured zones can cause significant changes in tunnel displacement and stress, thereby affecting tunnel safety. Additionally, the dynamic response of the ground and tunnel varies based on seismic load parameters such as frequency characteristics, seismic waveform, and peak acceleration, adding complexity to the behavior of the ground-tunnel structure system. In this study, a finite difference method is employed to model the entire ground-tunnel structure system, considering hydrostatic pressure, for the investigation of dynamic behavior of subsea railway tunnel during earthquake. Since the key factors influencing the dynamic behavior during seismic events are ground conditions and seismic waves, six analysis cases are established based on virtual ground conditions: Case-1 with weathered soil, Case-2 with hard rock, Case-3 with a composite ground of soil and hard rock in the tunnel longitudinal direction, Case-4 with the tunnel passing through a narrow fault zone, Case-5 with a composite ground of soft soil and hard rock in the tunnel longitudinal direction, and Case-6 with the tunnel passing through a wide fractured zone. As a result, horizontal displacements due to earthquakes tend to increase with an increase in ground stiffness, however, the displacements tend to be restrained due to the confining effects of the ground and the rigid shield segments. On the contrary, peak compressive stress of segment significantly increases with weaker ground stiffness and the effects of displacement restrain contribute the increase of peak compressive stress of segment.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.23 no.1
• /
• pp.95-108
• /
• 2017

Recently, AlphaGo which is Bakuk (Go) artificial intelligence program by Google DeepMind, had a huge victory against Lee Sedol. Many people thought that machines would not be able to win a man in Go games because the number of paths to make a one move is more than the number of atoms in the universe unlike chess, but the result was the opposite to what people predicted. After the match, artificial intelligence technology was focused as a core technology of the fourth industrial revolution and attracted attentions from various application domains. Especially, deep learning technique have been attracted as a core artificial intelligence technology used in the AlphaGo algorithm. The deep learning technique is already being applied to many problems. Especially, it shows good performance in image recognition field. In addition, it shows good performance in high dimensional data area such as voice, image and natural language, which was difficult to get good performance using existing machine learning techniques. However, in contrast, it is difficult to find deep leaning researches on traditional business data and structured data analysis. In this study, we tried to find out whether the deep learning techniques have been studied so far can be used not only for the recognition of high dimensional data but also for the binary classification problem of traditional business data analysis such as customer churn analysis, marketing response prediction, and default prediction. And we compare the performance of the deep learning techniques with that of traditional artificial neural network models. The experimental data in the paper is the telemarketing response data of a bank in Portugal. It has input variables such as age, occupation, loan status, and the number of previous telemarketing and has a binary target variable that records whether the customer intends to open an account or not. In this study, to evaluate the possibility of utilization of deep learning algorithms and techniques in binary classification problem, we compared the performance of various models using CNN, LSTM algorithm and dropout, which are widely used algorithms and techniques in deep learning, with that of MLP models which is a traditional artificial neural network model. However, since all the network design alternatives can not be tested due to the nature of the artificial neural network, the experiment was conducted based on restricted settings on the number of hidden layers, the number of neurons in the hidden layer, the number of output data (filters), and the application conditions of the dropout technique. The F1 Score was used to evaluate the performance of models to show how well the models work to classify the interesting class instead of the overall accuracy. The detail methods for applying each deep learning technique in the experiment is as follows. The CNN algorithm is a method that reads adjacent values from a specific value and recognizes the features, but it does not matter how close the distance of each business data field is because each field is usually independent. In this experiment, we set the filter size of the CNN algorithm as the number of fields to learn the whole characteristics of the data at once, and added a hidden layer to make decision based on the additional features. For the model having two LSTM layers, the input direction of the second layer is put in reversed position with first layer in order to reduce the influence from the position of each field. In the case of the dropout technique, we set the neurons to disappear with a probability of 0.5 for each hidden layer. The experimental results show that the predicted model with the highest F1 score was the CNN model using the dropout technique, and the next best model was the MLP model with two hidden layers using the dropout technique. In this study, we were able to get some findings as the experiment had proceeded. First, models using dropout techniques have a slightly more conservative prediction than those without dropout techniques, and it generally shows better performance in classification. Second, CNN models show better classification performance than MLP models. This is interesting because it has shown good performance in binary classification problems which it rarely have been applied to, as well as in the fields where it's effectiveness has been proven. Third, the LSTM algorithm seems to be unsuitable for binary classification problems because the training time is too long compared to the performance improvement. From these results, we can confirm that some of the deep learning algorithms can be applied to solve business binary classification problems.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.25 no.4
• /
• pp.141-154
• /
• 2019

Rapid growth of internet technology and social media is progressing. Data mining technology has evolved to enable unstructured document representations in a variety of applications. Sentiment analysis is an important technology that can distinguish poor or high-quality content through text data of products, and it has proliferated during text mining. Sentiment analysis mainly analyzes people's opinions in text data by assigning predefined data categories as positive and negative. This has been studied in various directions in terms of accuracy from simple rule-based to dictionary-based approaches using predefined labels. In fact, sentiment analysis is one of the most active researches in natural language processing and is widely studied in text mining. When real online reviews aren't available for others, it's not only easy to openly collect information, but it also affects your business. In marketing, real-world information from customers is gathered on websites, not surveys. Depending on whether the website's posts are positive or negative, the customer response is reflected in the sales and tries to identify the information. However, many reviews on a website are not always good, and difficult to identify. The earlier studies in this research area used the reviews data of the Amazon.com shopping mal, but the research data used in the recent studies uses the data for stock market trends, blogs, news articles, weather forecasts, IMDB, and facebook etc. However, the lack of accuracy is recognized because sentiment calculations are changed according to the subject, paragraph, sentiment lexicon direction, and sentence strength. This study aims to classify the polarity analysis of sentiment analysis into positive and negative categories and increase the prediction accuracy of the polarity analysis using the pretrained IMDB review data set. First, the text classification algorithm related to sentiment analysis adopts the popular machine learning algorithms such as NB (naive bayes), SVM (support vector machines), XGboost, RF (random forests), and Gradient Boost as comparative models. Second, deep learning has demonstrated discriminative features that can extract complex features of data. Representative algorithms are CNN (convolution neural networks), RNN (recurrent neural networks), LSTM (long-short term memory). CNN can be used similarly to BoW when processing a sentence in vector format, but does not consider sequential data attributes. RNN can handle well in order because it takes into account the time information of the data, but there is a long-term dependency on memory. To solve the problem of long-term dependence, LSTM is used. For the comparison, CNN and LSTM were chosen as simple deep learning models. In addition to classical machine learning algorithms, CNN, LSTM, and the integrated models were analyzed. Although there are many parameters for the algorithms, we examined the relationship between numerical value and precision to find the optimal combination. And, we tried to figure out how the models work well for sentiment analysis and how these models work. This study proposes integrated CNN and LSTM algorithms to extract the positive and negative features of text analysis. The reasons for mixing these two algorithms are as follows. CNN can extract features for the classification automatically by applying convolution layer and massively parallel processing. LSTM is not capable of highly parallel processing. Like faucets, the LSTM has input, output, and forget gates that can be moved and controlled at a desired time. These gates have the advantage of placing memory blocks on hidden nodes. The memory block of the LSTM may not store all the data, but it can solve the CNN's long-term dependency problem. Furthermore, when LSTM is used in CNN's pooling layer, it has an end-to-end structure, so that spatial and temporal features can be designed simultaneously. In combination with CNN-LSTM, 90.33% accuracy was measured. This is slower than CNN, but faster than LSTM. The presented model was more accurate than other models. In addition, each word embedding layer can be improved when training the kernel step by step. CNN-LSTM can improve the weakness of each model, and there is an advantage of improving the learning by layer using the end-to-end structure of LSTM. Based on these reasons, this study tries to enhance the classification accuracy of movie reviews using the integrated CNN-LSTM model.

• Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
• /
• v.17 no.2
• /
• pp.31-54
• /
• 2007

The exchange between buyers and sellers in the industrial market is changing from short-term to long-term relationships. Long-term relationships are governed mainly by formal contracts or informal agreements, but many scholars are now asserting that controlling relationship by using formal contracts under environmental dynamism is inappropriate. In this case, partners will depend on each other's flexibility or interdependence. The former, flexibility, provides a general frame of reference, order, and standards against which to guide and assess appropriate behavior in dynamic and ambiguous situations, thus motivating the value-oriented performance goals shared between partners. It is based on social sacrifices, which can potentially minimize any opportunistic behaviors. The later, interdependence, means that each firm possesses a high level of dependence in an dynamic channel relationship. When interdependence is high in magnitude and symmetric, each firm enjoys a high level of power and the bonds between the firms should be reasonably strong. Strong shared power is likely to promote commitment because of the common interests, attention, and support found in such channel relationships. This study deals with environmental dynamism in high-tech industry. Firms in the high-tech industry regard it as a key success factor to successfully cope with environmental changes. However, due to the lack of studies dealing with environmental dynamism and supply chain commitment in the high-tech industry, it is very difficult to find effective strategies to cope with them. This paper presents the results of an empirical study on the relationship between environmental dynamism and supply chain commitment in the high-tech industry. We examined the effects of consumer, competitor, and technological dynamism on supply chain commitment. Additionally, we examined the moderating effects of flexibility and dependence of supply chains. This study was confined to the type of high-tech industry which has the characteristics of rapid technology change and short product lifecycle. Flexibility among the firms of this industry, having the characteristic of hard and fast growth, is more important here than among any other industry. Thus, a variety of environmental dynamism can affect a supply chain relationship. The industries targeted industries were electronic parts, metal product, computer, electric machine, automobile, and medical precision manufacturing industries. Data was collected as follows. During the survey, the researchers managed to obtain the list of parts suppliers of 2 companies, N and L, with an international competitiveness in the mobile phone manufacturing industry; and of the suppliers in a business relationship with S company, a semiconductor manufacturing company. They were asked to respond to the survey via telephone and e-mail. During the two month period of February-April 2006, we were able to collect data from 44 companies. The respondents were restricted to direct dealing authorities and subcontractor company (the supplier) staff with at least three months of dealing experience with a manufacture (an industrial material buyer). The measurement validation procedures included scale reliability; discriminant and convergent validity were used to validate measures. Also, the reliability measurements traditionally employed, such as the Cronbach's alpha, were used. All the reliabilities were greater than.70. A series of exploratory factor analyses was conducted. We conducted confirmatory factor analyses to assess the validity of our measurements. A series of chi-square difference tests were conducted so that the discriminant validity could be ensured. For each pair, we estimated two models-an unconstrained model and a constrained model-and compared the two model fits. All these tests supported discriminant validity. Also, all items loaded significantly on their respective constructs, providing support for convergent validity. We then examined composite reliability and average variance extracted (AVE). The composite reliability of each construct was greater than.70. The AVE of each construct was greater than.50. According to the multiple regression analysis, customer dynamism had a negative effect and competitor dynamism had a positive effect on a supplier's commitment. In addition, flexibility and dependence had significant moderating effects on customer and competitor dynamism. On the other hand, all hypotheses about technological dynamism had no significant effects on commitment. In other words, technological dynamism had no direct effect on supplier's commitment and was not moderated by the flexibility and dependence of the supply chain. This study makes its contribution in the point of view that this is a rare study on environmental dynamism and supply chain commitment in the field of high-tech industry. Especially, this study verified the effects of three sectors of environmental dynamism on supplier's commitment. Also, it empirically tested how the effects were moderated by flexibility and dependence. The results showed that flexibility and interdependence had a role to strengthen supplier's commitment under environmental dynamism in high-tech industry. Thus relationship managers in high-tech industry should make supply chain relationship flexible and interdependent. The limitations of the study are as follows; First, about the research setting, the study was conducted with high-tech industry, in which the direction of the change in the power balance of supply chain dyads is usually determined by manufacturers. So we have a difficulty with generalization. We need to control the power structure between partners in a future study. Secondly, about flexibility, we treated it throughout the paper as positive, but it can also be negative, i.e. violating an agreement or moving, but in the wrong direction, etc. Therefore we need to investigate the multi-dimensionality of flexibility in future research.

• The korean journal of orthodontics
• /
• v.29 no.5 s.76
• /
• pp.599-611
• /
• 1999

The purpose of this study was to evaluate shear, tensile and shear/tensile combined bond strengths(SBS, TBS, S/TBS) in various orthodontic brackets bonded to human teeth with chemically cured adhesive (Ortho-one, Bisco, USA). Five types of metal brackets with various bracket base configurations (Micro-Loc base(Tomy, Japan), Chessboard base(Daesung, Korea), Non-Etched Foil Mesh base(Dentarum, Germany), Micro-Etched Foil Mesh base(Ortho Organiners, USA), Integral base(Unitek, USA)) were used in this study. Shear, tensile and shear/tensile combined bond strengths according to the direction of force were measured by universal testing machine. The bracket base surface after bond strength test were examined by stereoscope and scanning electron microscope. The assessment of resin remnant on bracket base surface was carried out by ARI(adhesive remnant index). The results obtained were summarized as follows, 1. In all brackets, SBS was in the greatest value(p<0.05), TBS was in 50% level and S/TBS was in 30% level of SBS. 2. In bond strength, Micro-Loc base bracket showed the maximum bond strength($SBS:22.86{\pm}1.37kgf,\;TBS:11.37{\pm}0.42kgf,\;S/TBS:6.69{\pm}0.34kgf$) and Integral base bracket showed the minimum bond strength($SBS:10.52{\pm}1.27kgf,\;TBS:4.27{\pm}1.08kgf,\;S/TBS:2.94{\pm}0.58kgf) (p<0.05). 3. In bond strength per unit area, Integral base bracket showed the minimum value, Micro-Loc base and Chessboard base brackets were in similar value(p>0.05). Non-Etched Foil Mesh base and Micro-Etched Foil Mesh base bracket were similar in SBS and TBS(p>0.05), but Micro-Etched Foil Mesh base bracket was greater than Non-Etched Foil Mesh base bracket in S/TBS(p<0.05). 4. Bond failure sites were mainly between bracket base and adhesive, therefore ARI scores were low.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.17 no.4
• /
• pp.241-254
• /
• 2011

Financial time-series forecasting is one of the most important issues because it is essential for the risk management of financial institutions. Therefore, researchers have tried to forecast financial time-series using various data mining techniques such as regression, artificial neural networks, decision trees, k-nearest neighbor etc. Recently, support vector machines (SVMs) are popularly applied to this research area because they have advantages that they don't require huge training data and have low possibility of overfitting. However, a user must determine several design factors by heuristics in order to use SVM. For example, the selection of appropriate kernel function and its parameters and proper feature subset selection are major design factors of SVM. Other than these factors, the proper selection of instance subset may also improve the forecasting performance of SVM by eliminating irrelevant and distorting training instances. Nonetheless, there have been few studies that have applied instance selection to SVM, especially in the domain of stock market prediction. Instance selection tries to choose proper instance subsets from original training data. It may be considered as a method of knowledge refinement and it maintains the instance-base. This study proposes the novel instance selection algorithm for SVMs. The proposed technique in this study uses genetic algorithm (GA) to optimize instance selection process with parameter optimization simultaneously. We call the model as ISVM (SVM with Instance selection) in this study. Experiments on stock market data are implemented using ISVM. In this study, the GA searches for optimal or near-optimal values of kernel parameters and relevant instances for SVMs. This study needs two sets of parameters in chromosomes in GA setting : The codes for kernel parameters and for instance selection. For the controlling parameters of the GA search, the population size is set at 50 organisms and the value of the crossover rate is set at 0.7 while the mutation rate is 0.1. As the stopping condition, 50 generations are permitted. The application data used in this study consists of technical indicators and the direction of change in the daily Korea stock price index (KOSPI). The total number of samples is 2218 trading days. We separate the whole data into three subsets as training, test, hold-out data set. The number of data in each subset is 1056, 581, 581 respectively. This study compares ISVM to several comparative models including logistic regression (logit), backpropagation neural networks (ANN), nearest neighbor (1-NN), conventional SVM (SVM) and SVM with the optimized parameters (PSVM). In especial, PSVM uses optimized kernel parameters by the genetic algorithm. The experimental results show that ISVM outperforms 1-NN by 15.32%, ANN by 6.89%, Logit and SVM by 5.34%, and PSVM by 4.82% for the holdout data. For ISVM, only 556 data from 1056 original training data are used to produce the result. In addition, the two-sample test for proportions is used to examine whether ISVM significantly outperforms other comparative models. The results indicate that ISVM outperforms ANN and 1-NN at the 1% statistical significance level. In addition, ISVM performs better than Logit, SVM and PSVM at the 5% statistical significance level.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.17 no.3
• /
• pp.187-201
• /
• 2011

KOSPI200 index is the Korean stock price index consisting of actively traded 200 stocks in the Korean stock market. Its base value of 100 was set on January 3, 1990. The Korea Exchange (KRX) developed derivatives markets on the KOSPI200 index. KOSPI200 index futures market, introduced in 1996, has become one of the most actively traded indexes markets in the world. Traders can make profit by entering a long position on the KOSPI200 index futures contract if the KOSPI200 index will rise in the future. Likewise, they can make profit by entering a short position if the KOSPI200 index will decline in the future. Basically, KOSPI200 index futures trading is a short-term zero-sum game and therefore most futures traders are using technical indicators. Advanced traders make stable profits by using system trading technique, also known as algorithm trading. Algorithm trading uses computer programs for receiving real-time stock market data, analyzing stock price movements with various technical indicators and automatically entering trading orders such as timing, price or quantity of the order without any human intervention. Recent studies have shown the usefulness of artificial intelligent systems in forecasting stock prices or investment risk. KOSPI200 index data is numerical time-series data which is a sequence of data points measured at successive uniform time intervals such as minute, day, week or month. KOSPI200 index futures traders use technical analysis to find out some patterns on the time-series chart. Although there are many technical indicators, their results indicate the market states among bull, bear and flat. Most strategies based on technical analysis are divided into trend following strategy and non-trend following strategy. Both strategies decide the market states based on the patterns of the KOSPI200 index time-series data. This goes well with Markov model (MM). Everybody knows that the next price is upper or lower than the last price or similar to the last price, and knows that the next price is influenced by the last price. However, nobody knows the exact status of the next price whether it goes up or down or flat. So, hidden Markov model (HMM) is better fitted than MM. HMM is divided into discrete HMM (DHMM) and continuous HMM (CHMM). The only difference between DHMM and CHMM is in their representation of state probabilities. DHMM uses discrete probability density function and CHMM uses continuous probability density function such as Gaussian Mixture Model. KOSPI200 index values are real number and these follow a continuous probability density function, so CHMM is proper than DHMM for the KOSPI200 index. In this paper, we present an artificial intelligent trading system based on CHMM for the KOSPI200 index futures system traders. Traders have experienced on technical trading for the KOSPI200 index futures market ever since the introduction of the KOSPI200 index futures market. They have applied many strategies to make profit in trading the KOSPI200 index futures. Some strategies are based on technical indicators such as moving averages or stochastics, and others are based on candlestick patterns such as three outside up, three outside down, harami or doji star. We show a trading system of moving average cross strategy based on CHMM, and we compare it to a traditional algorithmic trading system. We set the parameter values of moving averages at common values used by market practitioners. Empirical results are presented to compare the simulation performance with the traditional algorithmic trading system using long-term daily KOSPI200 index data of more than 20 years. Our suggested trading system shows higher trading performance than naive system trading.