• Title/Summary/Keyword: lumber demand

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Development of the Lumber Demand Prediction Model

  • Kim, Dong-Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.95 no.5
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    • pp.601-604
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    • 2006
  • This study compared the accuracy of partial multivariate and vector autoregressive models for lumber demand prediction in Korea. The partial multivariate model has three explanatory variables; own price, construction permit area and dummy. The dummy variable reflected the boom of lumber demand in 1988, and the abrupt decrease in 1998. The VAR model consists of two endogenous variables, lumber demand and construction permit area with one lag. On the other hand, the prediction accuracy was estimated by Root Mean Squared Error. The results showed that the estimation by partial multivariate and vector autoregressive model showed similar explanatory power, and the prediction accuracy was similar in the case of using partial multivariate and vector autoregressive model.

Degradation of Planted Forest and Flood Management in Urban Area (인공림의 황폐실태와 도시지역 홍수 위험성 증대에 대하여)

  • Tsuchiya, Nobuyuki
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Environment and Ecology Conference
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    • 2009.10a
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2009
  • Japan is one of the major forest-rich countries in the world with two thirds of its national territory covered with forests. The various functions of forests, including the prevention of global warming, conservation of national land, recharging of water resources, and maintenance of biotic diversity, play an important role in our safe, secure, and comfortable living. With the increasing national expectations on the role of forests to contribute to the prevention of global warming and "Accelerating forest carbon-sink measures to achieve Kyoto Protocol Commitment", it is necessary to make efforts toward a large-scale forest regeneration in order to secure an absorption of 13 million carbon tons through forest carbon sink for the achievement of the target of six percent reduction under the Kyoto Protocol. Most importantly, however, is to accelerate the measures for forests as absorption sources, including thinning and other forestry management activities. However, there is a situation, among others, where thinning is not implemented properly due to the decreased willingness of forest owners to manage forests, because of the long-term low demand for domestic lumber and lumber prices. In addition, forestry workers are aging and decreasing in number. Thus, the circumstances surrounding forestry are severe. It is necessary for the protection of our precious forests to make efforts to create and maintain forests with activities that involve citizens such as the "National Movement for Utsukushii Mori Zukuri(Fostering Beautiful Forests)".

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Performance of Structural Glulam Manufactured with Fire Retardants Treated Lumbers (난연처리 제재목으로 제조한 구조용 집성재의 강도 성능평가)

  • Son, Dong-Won;Eom, Chang-Deuk;Park, Jun-Cheol;Park, Joo-Saeng
    • Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.477-482
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    • 2014
  • Consumer demand for wood use has diversified recently. Laminated wood has been used for large-scale buildings and public buildings, not only the durability but also the demand for fire safety has increased. In this study. it was performed for the purpose of developing a standard and flame-retardant treatment technology suitable for structural laminated wood, which was prepared in domestic larch. In this study, by using the domestic larch and Korean pine lumber which treated with flame-retardants, to manufacture the glulam, the effect of strength properties were investigated. In the case of fire retardant treated larch Glulam was satisfactory conditions of the strength of structural laminated wood, but had to be improved, such as the occurrence of delamination and decrease strength by the flame retardant treatment. Development of application-type flame retardant treatment technology or injection-type flame retardant treatment after production of laminated lumber were required.

Analysis of Forestry Structure and Induced Output Based on Input - output Table - Influences of Forestry Production on Korean Economy - (산업관련표(産業關聯表)에 의(依)한 임업구조분석(林業構造分析)과 유발생산액(誘發生産額) -임업(林業)이 한국경제(韓國經濟)에 미치는 영향(影響)-)

  • Lee, Sung-Yoon
    • Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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    • v.2 no.4
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    • pp.4-14
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    • 1974
  • The total forest land area in Korea accounts for some 67 percent of the nation's land total. Its productivity, however, is very low. Consequently, forest production accounts for only about 2 percent of the gross national product and a minor proportion of no more than about 5 percent versus primary industry. In this case, however, only the direct income from forestry is taken into account, making no reference to the forestry output induced by other industrial sectors. The value added Or the induced forestry output in manufacturing the primary wood products into higher quality products, makes a larger contribution to the economy than direct contribution. So, this author has tried to analyze the structure of forestry and compute the repercussion effect and the induced output of primary forest products when utilized by other industries for their raw materials, Hsing the input-output table and attached tables for 1963 and 1966 issued by the Bank of Korea. 1. Analysis of forestry structure A. Changes in total output Durng the nine-year period, 1961-1969, the real gross national product in Korea increased 2.1 times, while that of primary industries went up about 1. 4 times. Forestry which was valued at 9,380 million won in 1961, was picked up about 2. 1 times to 20, 120 million won in 1969. The rate of the forestry income in the GNP, accordingly, was no more than 1.5 percent both in 1961 and 1962, whereas its rate in primary industries increased 3.5 to 5.4 percent. Such increase in forestry income is attributable to increased forest production and rise in timber prices. The rate of forestry income, nonetheless, was on the decrease on a gradual basis. B. Changes in input coefficient The input coefficient which indicates the inputs of the forest products into other sectors were up in general in 1966 over 1963. It is noted that the input coefficient indicating the amount of forest products supplied to such industries closely related with forestry as lumber and plywood, and wood products and furniture, showed a downward trend for the period 1963-1966. On the other hand, the forest input into other sectors was generally on the increase. Meanwhile, the input coefficient representing the yolume of the forest products supplied to the forestry sector itself showed an upward tendency, which meant more and more decrease in input from other sectors. Generally speaking, in direct proportion to the higher input coefficient in any industrial sector, the reinput coefficient which denotes the use of its products by the same sector becomes higher and higher. C. Changes in ratio of intermediate input The intermediate input ratio showing the dependency on raw materials went up to 15.43 percent m 1966 from 11. 37 percent in 1963. The dependency of forestry on raw materials was no more than 15.43 percent, accounting for a high 83.57 percent of value added. If the intermediate input ratio increases in any given sector, the input coefficient which represents the fe-use of its products by the same sector becomes large. D. Changes in the ratio of intermediate demand The ratio of the intermediate demand represents the characteristics of the intermediary production in each industry, the intermediate demand ratio in forestry which accunted for 69.7 percent in 1963 went up to 75.2 percent in 1966. In other words, forestry is a remarkable industry in that there is characteristics of the intermediary production. E. Changes in import coefficient The import coefficient which denotes the relation between the production activities and imports, recorded at 4.4 percent in 1963, decreased to 2.4 percent in 1966. The ratio of import to total output is not so high. F. Changes in market composition of imported goods One of the major imported goods in the forestry sector is lumber. The import value increased by 60 percent to 667 million won in 1966 from 407 million won in 1963. The sales of imported forest products to two major outlets-lumber and plywood, and wood products and furniture-increased to 343 million won and 31 million won in 1966 from 240million won and 30 million won in 1963 respectively. On the other hand, imported goods valued at 66 million won were sold to the paper products sector in 1963; however, no supply to this sector was recorded in 1963. Besides these major markets, primary industries such as the fishery, coal and agriculture sectors purchase materials from forestry. 2. Analysis of repercussion effect on production The repercussion effect of final demand in any given sector upon the expansion of the production of other sectors was analyzed, using the inverse matrix coefficient tables attached to the the I.O. Table. A. Changes in intra-sector transaction value of inverse matrix coefficient. The intra-sector transaction value of an inverse matrix coefficient represents the extent of an induced increase in the production of self-support products of the same sector, when it is generated directly and indirectly by one unit of final demand in any given sector. The intra-sector transaction value of the forestry sector rose from 1.04 in 1963 to 1, 11 in 1966. It may well be said, therefore, that forestry induces much more self-supporting products in the production of one unit of final demand for forest products. B. Changes in column total of inverse matrix coefficient It should be noted that the column total indicates the degree of effect of the output of the corresponding and related sectors generated by one unit of final demand in each sector. No changes in the column total of the forestry sector were recorded between the 1963 and 1966 figures, both being the same 1. 19. C. Changes in difference between column total and intra-sector transaction amount. The difference between the column total and intra-sector transaction amount by sector reveals the extent of effect of output of related industrial sector induced indirectly by one unit of final demand in corresponding sector. This change in forestry dropped remarkable to 0.08 in 1966 from 0.15 in 1963. Accordingly, the effect of inducement of indirect output of other forestry-related sectors has decreased; this is a really natural phenomenon, as compared with an increasing input coefficient generated by the re-use of forest products by the forestry sector. 3. Induced output of forestry A. Forest products, wood in particular, are supplied to other industries as their raw materials, increasng their value added. In this connection the primary dependency rate on forestry for 1963 and 1966 was compared, i. e., an increase or decrease in each sector, from 7.71 percent in 1963 to 11.91 percent in 1966 in agriculture, 10.32 to 6.11 in fishery, 16.24 to 19.90 in mining, 0.76 to 0.70 in the manufacturing sector and 2.79 to 4.77 percent in the construction sector. Generally speaking, on the average the dependency on forestry during the period 1963-1966 increased from 5.92 percent to 8.03 percent. Accordingly, it may easily be known that the primary forestry output induced by primary and secondary industries increased from 16, 109 million won in 1963 to 48, 842 million won in 1966. B. The forest products are supplied to other industries as their raw materials. The products are processed further into higher quality products. thus indirectly increasing the value of the forest products. The ratio of the increased value added or the secondary dependency on forestry for 1963 and 1966 showed an increase or decrease, from 5.98 percent to 7.87 percent in agriculture, 9.06 to 5.74 in fishery, 13.56 to 15.81 in mining, 0.68 to 0.61 in the manufacturing sector and 2.71 to 4.54 in the construction sector. The average ratio in this connection increased from 4.69 percent to 5.60 percent. In the meantime, the secondary forestry output induced by primary and secondary industries rose from 12,779 million Wall in 1963 to 34,084 million won in 1966. C. The dependency of tertiary industries on forestry showed very minor ratios of 0.46 percent and 0.04 percent in 1963 and 1966 respectively. The forestry output induced by tertiary industry also decreased from 685 million won to 123 million won during the same period. D. Generally speaking, the ratio of dependency on forestry increased from 17.68 percent in 1963 to 24.28 percent in 1966 in primary industries, from 4.69 percent to 5.70 percent in secondary industries, while, as mentioned above, the ratio in the case of tertiary industry decreased from 0.46 to 0.04 percent during the period 1963-66. The mining industry reveals the heaviest rate of dependency on forestry with 29.80 percent in 1963 and 35.71 percent in 1966. As it result, the direct forestry income, valued at 8,172 million won in 1963, shot up to 22,724 million won in 1966. Its composition ratio lo the national income rose from 1.9 percent in 1963 to 2.3 per cent in 1966. If the induced outcome is taken into account, the total forestry production which was estimated at 37,744 million won in 1963 picked up to 105,773 million won in 1966, about 4.5 times its direct income. It is further noted that the ratio of the gross forestry product to the gross national product. rose significantly from 8.8 percent in 1963 to 10.7 percent in 1966. E. In computing the above mentioned ratio not taken into consideration were such intangible, indirect effects as the drought and flood prevention, check of soil run-off, watershed and land conservation, improvement of the people's recreational and emotional living, and maintenance and increase in the national health and sanitation. F. In conclusion, I would like to emphasize that the forestry sector exercices an important effect upon the national economy and that the effect of induced forestry output is greater than its direct income.

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Performance of Structural Glulam Laminated with CuAz-3 Preservative Treated Lumber (CuAz-3처리 리기다소나무 제재목을 이용한 구조용 집성재 성능 평가)

  • Kim, Kwang-Mo;Eom, Chang-Deuk;Lee, Sang-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.521-530
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    • 2011
  • Nowadays, market demand of structural Glulam is growing and diversifying. The durability of Glulam should be significantly considered when they are intended to apply for out-door use such as timber bridge and pergola. This study was aimed to develop the manufacturing process of preservative treated structural Glulam using domestic softwood species. 10 m long structural Glulam were manufactured from domestic pitch pine logs with CuAz-3 preservative treatment. At each manufacturing process, the production yield was evaluated. Finally, bending tests were performed to verify the structural performance of manufactured Glulam. From the results, it was shown that the preservative treatment process hardly influenced on the production yield. But domestic pitch pine was proved to not be suitable for making the preservative treated Glulam due to the large difference of preservative permeability between sapwood and heartwood.

A Study on the Wooden Procurement in the Diary of Yeonggun during the Construction of Gyeongbokgung Palace in King Gojong's reign (고종대 경복궁 중건 시 영건일기에 나타난 목재 조달 고찰)

  • Kim, Bue-Dyel;Cho, Jeong-Sik
    • Journal of architectural history
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.101-112
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    • 2020
  • This study focuses on the construction of Gyeongbokgung Palace in the second year of King Gojong's reign, which has been spotlighted for political and economic history. The author analyzed the contents of wood procurement with the Yeonggeon Diary, which records each day of construction site. The results are as follows: First, the 2nd year of King Gojong's reign, Yeonggeon of Gyeongbokgung Palace, was a new building that reflected the old system and 270 years of changed environment on the existing site. Despite the poor economic conditions, it began with years of effort and voluntary volunteer work and dedication. Second, the priority of timber transport was recruiting people in the whole process and the supply and demand of transportation tools. Carrying lumber from the mountains to the riverside and floating it at the right time were all a matter of manpower. Soldiers and carts were used to carry timber that arrived in Hangang River to the construction site. The cart was a consumable product, so it was necessary to continuously use the wood to make cart at the site. Third, fire and flood were the biggest obstacles to the Yeonggeon schedule of Gyeongbokgung Palace. Especially the fire was fatal. It was difficult to extinguish the fire in temporary structure, where was the storage for wood to construct. These disasters greatly affected the construction cost and construction period. Wood procurements of Gyeongbokgung Palace were based on public offerings. At the same time, recycled materials from other palace wood and nearby houses, nationwide buying of private mountain wood, the logging of royal tombs and some of the buildings of Gyeonghui Palace and Changgyeong Palace were relocated.

A Study on the Application of the Price Prediction of Construction Materials through the Improvement of Data Refactor Techniques (Data Refactor 기법의 개선을 통한 건설원자재 가격 예측 적용성 연구)

  • Lee, Woo-Yang;Lee, Dong-Eun;Kim, Byung-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.66-73
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    • 2023
  • The construction industry suffers losses due to failures in demand forecasting due to price fluctuations in construction raw materials, increased user costs due to project cost changes, and lack of forecasting system. Accordingly, it is necessary to improve the accuracy of construction raw material price forecasting. This study aims to predict the price of construction raw materials and verify applicability through the improvement of the Data Refactor technique. In order to improve the accuracy of price prediction of construction raw materials, the existing data refactor classification of low and high frequency and ARIMAX utilization method was improved to frequency-oriented and ARIMA method utilization, so that short-term (3 months in the future) six items such as construction raw materials lumber and cement were improved. ), mid-term (6 months in the future), and long-term (12 months in the future) price forecasts. As a result of the analysis, the predicted value based on the improved Data Refactor technique reduced the error and expanded the variability. Therefore, it is expected that the budget can be managed effectively by predicting the price of construction raw materials more accurately through the Data Refactor technique proposed in this study.

A Study on Health Status of the 1,559 Korean Applicants Applying for the Coal Miners in West Germany during the Year of 1972 and 1973 (우리나라 독일광부(獨逸鑛夫) 지원자(志願者)에 대(對)한 건강상태(健康狀態)에 관(關)한 조사연구(調査硏究))

  • Jun, Hyun-Sook;Choi, Sam-Sup
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.383-393
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    • 1974
  • The importance of the health care for the miners not only concerns the productivity of the enterprises but also as a fundamental human right, it has to be secured and protected by the society and the government. The Korean coal miners began to find their works at overseas since 1963 when the Korean government selected and dispatched its miners to West Germany. As years go by, the demand and the supply of the coal miners, the program of the coal miners health care became the important tasks to be solved and the further studies and research were necessary to support these tasks achievement. The writers made a statistical analysis on health status of the 1,559 Korean applicants applying for the coal miners in West Germany during the year of 1972 and 1973 by the using of the data of physical examination which were directed by the Korea Overseas Development Cooperation. The standard of physical examination which was applied for coal miners applying the jobs in West Germany was authorized by the Government Office of Labor in 1967. The results are as following; 1. The applicants were from the various provinces throughout Korea; Gang Weon 50.2%, Jeon-Nam 16.8%, Chung-Nam 13.7%, Gyeong-Nam 10.5%, City of Seoul 5.4%, and others 3.7%. 2. The ages of the applicants were from 20 to 44. The age group of 25-29(36.3%) and of 30-34(55.2%) together occupied the 91.5 per cent of the total applicants. 3. Among the 1,559 applicants 52.1 per cent passed the physical examinations. The tendency were shown that as the age increased, the passing rate decreased, and the married applicnts had lower passing rates compared to the unmarried applicants. 4. The height of the applicants averaged $168.4{\pm}4.74(cm)$ and the weight averaged $61.3{\pm}5.65(kg)$. 5. The average vision of the left eye of the applicants was $0.92{\pm}0.23$ and the right eye was $0.91{\pm}0.30$. 6. The mean value of the systolic blood pressure of the applicants was $145{\pm}13(mmHg)$ and the diastolic blood pressure was $85{\pm}8(mmHg)$. 7. Fifteen hundred and fifty-nine applicants were taken chest X-ray and 17.2 per cent were found abonrmal. For each 1,000 applicants, 46 Pulmonary calcification and fibrosis, 45 chronic bronchitis, 27 pleural thickening and adhesion, 20 pulmonary tuburculosis, 11 anomalies of the rib, 10 pulmonary infiltration and 21 others diseases were found. 8. Lumber X-ray examination showed that 23.9 per cent (372 applicants) were found abnormal. For each 1,000 applicants, 77 osteoarthritis, 56 lumbarization, 15 fracture of vertebrae, 15 spondyloarthritis, 14 deformity of vertebrae, 13 spina bifida, 12 sacralization, 12 spondylolysis, and 5 others diseases were found. 9. In total, 47.9 per cent of 1,559 applicants failed the physical examinations, and the main causes for the failure were shown to be 7.1% of anomalies of spine, 6.3% of osteoarthritis, 4.7% of pulmonary calcification and fibrosis, 4.6% of chronic brochitis, 3.6% of hypertension (only), 3.4% of fracture of vertebrae. 3.1% of underweight(under 57.0kg), 2.0% of spondyloarthritis, 2.0% oe pulmonary tuberculosis, 1.7% of pleurisy, 1.0% of spina bifida, 1.5% of syphilis, 1.5% of color blindess, and 1.0% of underheight(under 160.0cm).

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