• 제목/요약/키워드: lumber demand

검색결과 8건 처리시간 0.023초

Development of the Lumber Demand Prediction Model

  • Kim, Dong-Jun
    • 한국산림과학회지
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    • 제95권5호
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    • pp.601-604
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    • 2006
  • This study compared the accuracy of partial multivariate and vector autoregressive models for lumber demand prediction in Korea. The partial multivariate model has three explanatory variables; own price, construction permit area and dummy. The dummy variable reflected the boom of lumber demand in 1988, and the abrupt decrease in 1998. The VAR model consists of two endogenous variables, lumber demand and construction permit area with one lag. On the other hand, the prediction accuracy was estimated by Root Mean Squared Error. The results showed that the estimation by partial multivariate and vector autoregressive model showed similar explanatory power, and the prediction accuracy was similar in the case of using partial multivariate and vector autoregressive model.

인공림의 황폐실태와 도시지역 홍수 위험성 증대에 대하여 (Degradation of Planted Forest and Flood Management in Urban Area)

  • 쯔치야 노부유키
    • 한국환경생태학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국환경생태학회 2009년 학술대회 논문집 2호
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2009
  • Japan is one of the major forest-rich countries in the world with two thirds of its national territory covered with forests. The various functions of forests, including the prevention of global warming, conservation of national land, recharging of water resources, and maintenance of biotic diversity, play an important role in our safe, secure, and comfortable living. With the increasing national expectations on the role of forests to contribute to the prevention of global warming and "Accelerating forest carbon-sink measures to achieve Kyoto Protocol Commitment", it is necessary to make efforts toward a large-scale forest regeneration in order to secure an absorption of 13 million carbon tons through forest carbon sink for the achievement of the target of six percent reduction under the Kyoto Protocol. Most importantly, however, is to accelerate the measures for forests as absorption sources, including thinning and other forestry management activities. However, there is a situation, among others, where thinning is not implemented properly due to the decreased willingness of forest owners to manage forests, because of the long-term low demand for domestic lumber and lumber prices. In addition, forestry workers are aging and decreasing in number. Thus, the circumstances surrounding forestry are severe. It is necessary for the protection of our precious forests to make efforts to create and maintain forests with activities that involve citizens such as the "National Movement for Utsukushii Mori Zukuri(Fostering Beautiful Forests)".

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난연처리 제재목으로 제조한 구조용 집성재의 강도 성능평가 (Performance of Structural Glulam Manufactured with Fire Retardants Treated Lumbers)

  • 손동원;엄창득;박준철;박주생
    • Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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    • 제42권4호
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    • pp.477-482
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    • 2014
  • 최근 목재이용에 대한 소비자의 요구가 다양화 되면서 목조 주택뿐만 아니라 공공건물 및 놀이시설 등에 고내구성 집성재에 대한 시장수요가 증가할 것으로 예상된다. 본 연구는 국산 낙엽송으로 제조한 구조용 집성재에 적합한 난연처리 기술개발 및 기준을 정립하기 위한 목적으로 수행되었다. 난연처리된 국산 낙엽송 제재목을 이용하여 구조용 집성재를 제조하고 제조 후 집성재에 미치는 영향을 조사하였다. 낙엽송 난연처리재의 경우 구조용 집성재의 강도조건에는 만족하였으나 난연제 처리에 의한 강도적인 감소와 박리 발생 등은 개선될 필요가 있었다. 집성재의 제조 후 주입식 난연처리 혹은 도포식 난연처리 기술 개발이 요구되었다.

산업관련표(産業關聯表)에 의(依)한 임업구조분석(林業構造分析)과 유발생산액(誘發生産額) -임업(林業)이 한국경제(韓國經濟)에 미치는 영향(影響)- (Analysis of Forestry Structure and Induced Output Based on Input - output Table - Influences of Forestry Production on Korean Economy -)

  • 이승윤
    • Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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    • 제2권4호
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    • pp.4-14
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    • 1974
  • The total forest land area in Korea accounts for some 67 percent of the nation's land total. Its productivity, however, is very low. Consequently, forest production accounts for only about 2 percent of the gross national product and a minor proportion of no more than about 5 percent versus primary industry. In this case, however, only the direct income from forestry is taken into account, making no reference to the forestry output induced by other industrial sectors. The value added Or the induced forestry output in manufacturing the primary wood products into higher quality products, makes a larger contribution to the economy than direct contribution. So, this author has tried to analyze the structure of forestry and compute the repercussion effect and the induced output of primary forest products when utilized by other industries for their raw materials, Hsing the input-output table and attached tables for 1963 and 1966 issued by the Bank of Korea. 1. Analysis of forestry structure A. Changes in total output Durng the nine-year period, 1961-1969, the real gross national product in Korea increased 2.1 times, while that of primary industries went up about 1. 4 times. Forestry which was valued at 9,380 million won in 1961, was picked up about 2. 1 times to 20, 120 million won in 1969. The rate of the forestry income in the GNP, accordingly, was no more than 1.5 percent both in 1961 and 1962, whereas its rate in primary industries increased 3.5 to 5.4 percent. Such increase in forestry income is attributable to increased forest production and rise in timber prices. The rate of forestry income, nonetheless, was on the decrease on a gradual basis. B. Changes in input coefficient The input coefficient which indicates the inputs of the forest products into other sectors were up in general in 1966 over 1963. It is noted that the input coefficient indicating the amount of forest products supplied to such industries closely related with forestry as lumber and plywood, and wood products and furniture, showed a downward trend for the period 1963-1966. On the other hand, the forest input into other sectors was generally on the increase. Meanwhile, the input coefficient representing the yolume of the forest products supplied to the forestry sector itself showed an upward tendency, which meant more and more decrease in input from other sectors. Generally speaking, in direct proportion to the higher input coefficient in any industrial sector, the reinput coefficient which denotes the use of its products by the same sector becomes higher and higher. C. Changes in ratio of intermediate input The intermediate input ratio showing the dependency on raw materials went up to 15.43 percent m 1966 from 11. 37 percent in 1963. The dependency of forestry on raw materials was no more than 15.43 percent, accounting for a high 83.57 percent of value added. If the intermediate input ratio increases in any given sector, the input coefficient which represents the fe-use of its products by the same sector becomes large. D. Changes in the ratio of intermediate demand The ratio of the intermediate demand represents the characteristics of the intermediary production in each industry, the intermediate demand ratio in forestry which accunted for 69.7 percent in 1963 went up to 75.2 percent in 1966. In other words, forestry is a remarkable industry in that there is characteristics of the intermediary production. E. Changes in import coefficient The import coefficient which denotes the relation between the production activities and imports, recorded at 4.4 percent in 1963, decreased to 2.4 percent in 1966. The ratio of import to total output is not so high. F. Changes in market composition of imported goods One of the major imported goods in the forestry sector is lumber. The import value increased by 60 percent to 667 million won in 1966 from 407 million won in 1963. The sales of imported forest products to two major outlets-lumber and plywood, and wood products and furniture-increased to 343 million won and 31 million won in 1966 from 240million won and 30 million won in 1963 respectively. On the other hand, imported goods valued at 66 million won were sold to the paper products sector in 1963; however, no supply to this sector was recorded in 1963. Besides these major markets, primary industries such as the fishery, coal and agriculture sectors purchase materials from forestry. 2. Analysis of repercussion effect on production The repercussion effect of final demand in any given sector upon the expansion of the production of other sectors was analyzed, using the inverse matrix coefficient tables attached to the the I.O. Table. A. Changes in intra-sector transaction value of inverse matrix coefficient. The intra-sector transaction value of an inverse matrix coefficient represents the extent of an induced increase in the production of self-support products of the same sector, when it is generated directly and indirectly by one unit of final demand in any given sector. The intra-sector transaction value of the forestry sector rose from 1.04 in 1963 to 1, 11 in 1966. It may well be said, therefore, that forestry induces much more self-supporting products in the production of one unit of final demand for forest products. B. Changes in column total of inverse matrix coefficient It should be noted that the column total indicates the degree of effect of the output of the corresponding and related sectors generated by one unit of final demand in each sector. No changes in the column total of the forestry sector were recorded between the 1963 and 1966 figures, both being the same 1. 19. C. Changes in difference between column total and intra-sector transaction amount. The difference between the column total and intra-sector transaction amount by sector reveals the extent of effect of output of related industrial sector induced indirectly by one unit of final demand in corresponding sector. This change in forestry dropped remarkable to 0.08 in 1966 from 0.15 in 1963. Accordingly, the effect of inducement of indirect output of other forestry-related sectors has decreased; this is a really natural phenomenon, as compared with an increasing input coefficient generated by the re-use of forest products by the forestry sector. 3. Induced output of forestry A. Forest products, wood in particular, are supplied to other industries as their raw materials, increasng their value added. In this connection the primary dependency rate on forestry for 1963 and 1966 was compared, i. e., an increase or decrease in each sector, from 7.71 percent in 1963 to 11.91 percent in 1966 in agriculture, 10.32 to 6.11 in fishery, 16.24 to 19.90 in mining, 0.76 to 0.70 in the manufacturing sector and 2.79 to 4.77 percent in the construction sector. Generally speaking, on the average the dependency on forestry during the period 1963-1966 increased from 5.92 percent to 8.03 percent. Accordingly, it may easily be known that the primary forestry output induced by primary and secondary industries increased from 16, 109 million won in 1963 to 48, 842 million won in 1966. B. The forest products are supplied to other industries as their raw materials. The products are processed further into higher quality products. thus indirectly increasing the value of the forest products. The ratio of the increased value added or the secondary dependency on forestry for 1963 and 1966 showed an increase or decrease, from 5.98 percent to 7.87 percent in agriculture, 9.06 to 5.74 in fishery, 13.56 to 15.81 in mining, 0.68 to 0.61 in the manufacturing sector and 2.71 to 4.54 in the construction sector. The average ratio in this connection increased from 4.69 percent to 5.60 percent. In the meantime, the secondary forestry output induced by primary and secondary industries rose from 12,779 million Wall in 1963 to 34,084 million won in 1966. C. The dependency of tertiary industries on forestry showed very minor ratios of 0.46 percent and 0.04 percent in 1963 and 1966 respectively. The forestry output induced by tertiary industry also decreased from 685 million won to 123 million won during the same period. D. Generally speaking, the ratio of dependency on forestry increased from 17.68 percent in 1963 to 24.28 percent in 1966 in primary industries, from 4.69 percent to 5.70 percent in secondary industries, while, as mentioned above, the ratio in the case of tertiary industry decreased from 0.46 to 0.04 percent during the period 1963-66. The mining industry reveals the heaviest rate of dependency on forestry with 29.80 percent in 1963 and 35.71 percent in 1966. As it result, the direct forestry income, valued at 8,172 million won in 1963, shot up to 22,724 million won in 1966. Its composition ratio lo the national income rose from 1.9 percent in 1963 to 2.3 per cent in 1966. If the induced outcome is taken into account, the total forestry production which was estimated at 37,744 million won in 1963 picked up to 105,773 million won in 1966, about 4.5 times its direct income. It is further noted that the ratio of the gross forestry product to the gross national product. rose significantly from 8.8 percent in 1963 to 10.7 percent in 1966. E. In computing the above mentioned ratio not taken into consideration were such intangible, indirect effects as the drought and flood prevention, check of soil run-off, watershed and land conservation, improvement of the people's recreational and emotional living, and maintenance and increase in the national health and sanitation. F. In conclusion, I would like to emphasize that the forestry sector exercices an important effect upon the national economy and that the effect of induced forestry output is greater than its direct income.

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CuAz-3처리 리기다소나무 제재목을 이용한 구조용 집성재 성능 평가 (Performance of Structural Glulam Laminated with CuAz-3 Preservative Treated Lumber)

  • 김광모;엄창득;이상준
    • Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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    • 제39권6호
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    • pp.521-530
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    • 2011
  • 구조용 집성재의 시장 수요가 확대되고 다양화되면서 교량이나 파고라와 같이 외기에 노출되는 조건에서 사용하기 위한 고 내구성 구조용 집성재에 대한 시장 요구가 증가할 것으로 예견된다. 따라서 본 연구는 국산 침엽수재로 제조되는 구조용 집성재에 적합한 방부처리 기술 및 기준을 개발하기 위한 목적으로 진행되었다. 본 연구에서는 방부처리된 국산 리기다소나무 제재목을 이용하여 구조용 집성재를 제조하고 제조 단계별 생산수율과 KS 품질기준 충족여부를 평가하였다. 방부집성재의 제조수율은 일반 집성재와 큰 차이를 나타내지 않았으며, 목재자원의 효율적인 활용을 위해서는 집성재 제조수율 향상방안과 함께 부산물에 대한 효율적 활용방안도 함께 검토되어야 한다. 리기다소나무 방부처리재의 경우 불균일한 방부약제 흡수량으로 인하여 구조용 집성재 제조용으로 적합하지 않은 것으로 확인되었으며, 집성재 제조 후에 유용성 방부제를 처리하는 방안에 대한 추가적인 검토가 요구되었다.

고종대 경복궁 중건 시 영건일기에 나타난 목재 조달 고찰 (A Study on the Wooden Procurement in the Diary of Yeonggun during the Construction of Gyeongbokgung Palace in King Gojong's reign)

  • 김버들;조정식
    • 건축역사연구
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    • 제29권6호
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    • pp.101-112
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    • 2020
  • This study focuses on the construction of Gyeongbokgung Palace in the second year of King Gojong's reign, which has been spotlighted for political and economic history. The author analyzed the contents of wood procurement with the Yeonggeon Diary, which records each day of construction site. The results are as follows: First, the 2nd year of King Gojong's reign, Yeonggeon of Gyeongbokgung Palace, was a new building that reflected the old system and 270 years of changed environment on the existing site. Despite the poor economic conditions, it began with years of effort and voluntary volunteer work and dedication. Second, the priority of timber transport was recruiting people in the whole process and the supply and demand of transportation tools. Carrying lumber from the mountains to the riverside and floating it at the right time were all a matter of manpower. Soldiers and carts were used to carry timber that arrived in Hangang River to the construction site. The cart was a consumable product, so it was necessary to continuously use the wood to make cart at the site. Third, fire and flood were the biggest obstacles to the Yeonggeon schedule of Gyeongbokgung Palace. Especially the fire was fatal. It was difficult to extinguish the fire in temporary structure, where was the storage for wood to construct. These disasters greatly affected the construction cost and construction period. Wood procurements of Gyeongbokgung Palace were based on public offerings. At the same time, recycled materials from other palace wood and nearby houses, nationwide buying of private mountain wood, the logging of royal tombs and some of the buildings of Gyeonghui Palace and Changgyeong Palace were relocated.

Data Refactor 기법의 개선을 통한 건설원자재 가격 예측 적용성 연구 (A Study on the Application of the Price Prediction of Construction Materials through the Improvement of Data Refactor Techniques)

  • 리우양;이동은;김병수
    • 한국건설관리학회논문집
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    • 제24권6호
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    • pp.66-73
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    • 2023
  • 건설 프로젝트는 기획부터 완공까지 공사비 예측, 확인, 그리고 정산 단계로 이루어진다. 건설원자재 평균 가격은 변동성을 지닌다. 하지만 건설 프로젝트의 자재비 산정은 계획단계 시점의 시세를 반영하여 결정되기 때문에, 시공단계에서 자재가 투입될 시점의 시세 변동에 따라 예상한 가격과 차이가 날 수 있다. 건설 산업은 건설원자재 가격 변동으로 인한 수요예측 실패, 프로젝트 비용변경으로 인한 사용자 비용 증가, 예측 체계성 부족으로 인한 손실이 발생한다. 이에 따라 건설원자재 가격 예측의 정확도 개선이 필요하다. 본 연구는 Data Refactor 기법의 개선을 통해 건설원자재 가격 예측 및 적용성 검증을 목적으로 한다. 건설원자재의 가격 예측의 정확도를 높이기 위하여 기존의 데이터 리팩토 간의 저·고빈도의 분류 및 ARIMAX 활용법을 빈도 위주 및 ARIMA 기법 활용으로 개선하여 건설원자재 목재, 시멘트 등 6개 품목의 단기(미래 3개월), 중기(미래 6개월), 장기(미래 12개월) 가격을 예측하였다. 분석한 결과 개선된 Data Refactor 기법을 기반으로 한 예측값이 오차는 줄었고 변동성은 확장되었다. 따라서, 본 연구에서 제안된 Data Refactor 기법을 통해 건설원자재 가격을 더 정확하게 예측하여 예산을 효과적으로 관리할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

우리나라 독일광부(獨逸鑛夫) 지원자(志願者)에 대(對)한 건강상태(健康狀態)에 관(關)한 조사연구(調査硏究) (A Study on Health Status of the 1,559 Korean Applicants Applying for the Coal Miners in West Germany during the Year of 1972 and 1973)

  • 전현숙;최삼섭
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제7권2호
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    • pp.383-393
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    • 1974
  • The importance of the health care for the miners not only concerns the productivity of the enterprises but also as a fundamental human right, it has to be secured and protected by the society and the government. The Korean coal miners began to find their works at overseas since 1963 when the Korean government selected and dispatched its miners to West Germany. As years go by, the demand and the supply of the coal miners, the program of the coal miners health care became the important tasks to be solved and the further studies and research were necessary to support these tasks achievement. The writers made a statistical analysis on health status of the 1,559 Korean applicants applying for the coal miners in West Germany during the year of 1972 and 1973 by the using of the data of physical examination which were directed by the Korea Overseas Development Cooperation. The standard of physical examination which was applied for coal miners applying the jobs in West Germany was authorized by the Government Office of Labor in 1967. The results are as following; 1. The applicants were from the various provinces throughout Korea; Gang Weon 50.2%, Jeon-Nam 16.8%, Chung-Nam 13.7%, Gyeong-Nam 10.5%, City of Seoul 5.4%, and others 3.7%. 2. The ages of the applicants were from 20 to 44. The age group of 25-29(36.3%) and of 30-34(55.2%) together occupied the 91.5 per cent of the total applicants. 3. Among the 1,559 applicants 52.1 per cent passed the physical examinations. The tendency were shown that as the age increased, the passing rate decreased, and the married applicnts had lower passing rates compared to the unmarried applicants. 4. The height of the applicants averaged $168.4{\pm}4.74(cm)$ and the weight averaged $61.3{\pm}5.65(kg)$. 5. The average vision of the left eye of the applicants was $0.92{\pm}0.23$ and the right eye was $0.91{\pm}0.30$. 6. The mean value of the systolic blood pressure of the applicants was $145{\pm}13(mmHg)$ and the diastolic blood pressure was $85{\pm}8(mmHg)$. 7. Fifteen hundred and fifty-nine applicants were taken chest X-ray and 17.2 per cent were found abonrmal. For each 1,000 applicants, 46 Pulmonary calcification and fibrosis, 45 chronic bronchitis, 27 pleural thickening and adhesion, 20 pulmonary tuburculosis, 11 anomalies of the rib, 10 pulmonary infiltration and 21 others diseases were found. 8. Lumber X-ray examination showed that 23.9 per cent (372 applicants) were found abnormal. For each 1,000 applicants, 77 osteoarthritis, 56 lumbarization, 15 fracture of vertebrae, 15 spondyloarthritis, 14 deformity of vertebrae, 13 spina bifida, 12 sacralization, 12 spondylolysis, and 5 others diseases were found. 9. In total, 47.9 per cent of 1,559 applicants failed the physical examinations, and the main causes for the failure were shown to be 7.1% of anomalies of spine, 6.3% of osteoarthritis, 4.7% of pulmonary calcification and fibrosis, 4.6% of chronic brochitis, 3.6% of hypertension (only), 3.4% of fracture of vertebrae. 3.1% of underweight(under 57.0kg), 2.0% of spondyloarthritis, 2.0% oe pulmonary tuberculosis, 1.7% of pleurisy, 1.0% of spina bifida, 1.5% of syphilis, 1.5% of color blindess, and 1.0% of underheight(under 160.0cm).

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