Since the first implanted in September 1997, the use of On-X prosthetic heart valve has been increasing around in the world. This study was designed to assess the feasibility, safety, and the postoperative hemodynamics with this new valve in clinical setting. Material and Method: The current study was carried out on 52 patients undergoing aortic valve replacement with this prosthesis between April 1999 to August 2002 at Chonnam National University Hospital to evaluate the surgical results. 52％ of the patients were male and the average age at implant was 50
The rule of the Warsaw Convention of 1929 are well known and still being all over the world. The Warsaw Convention is undoubtedly the most widely accepted private international air law treaty with some 140 countries. In the international legal system for air transportation, the Warsaw Convention has played a major role for more than half century, and has been revised many times in consideration of the rapid developments of air high technology, changes of social and economic circumstances, need for the protection of passengers. Some amendments became effective, but others are still not effective. As a result, the whole international legal system for air transportation is at past so complicated and tangled. However, the 'Warsaw system' consists of the Warsaw Convention of 1929 the Guadalajara Convention of 1961, a supplementary convention, and the following six protocols: (1) the Hague Protocol of 1955, (2) the Guatemala Protocol of 1971, (3) the Montreal Additional Protocols, No.1, (4) the Montreal Additional Protocol No.2, (5) the Montreal Additional Protocol No.3, and (6) the Montreal Additional Protocol No.4. of 1975. As a fundamental principle of the air carrier's liability in the international convention and protocols, for instance in the Warsaw Convention and the Hague Protocol, the principle of limited liability and a presumed fault system has been adopted. Subsequently, the Montreal Inter-carrier Agreement of 1966, the Guatemala City Protocol, the Montreal Additional Protocol No.3, and the Montreal Additional Protocol No. 4 of 1975 maintained the limited liability, but substituted the presumed liability system by an absolute liability, that is, strict liability system. The Warsaw System, which sets relatively low compensation limits for victims of aircraft accidents and regulates the limited liability for death and injury of air passengers, had become increasingly outdated. Japanese Airlines and Inter-carrier Agreement of International Air Transport Association in 1995 has been adopted the unlimited liability of air carrier in international flight. The IATA Inter-Carrier Agreement, in which airlines in international air transportation agree to waive the limit of damages, was long and hard in coming, but it was remarkable achievement given the political and economic realities of the world. IATA deserves enormous credit for bringing it about. The Warsaw System is controversial and questionable. In order to find rational solution to disputes between nations which adopted differing liability systems in international air transportation, we need to reform the liability of air carriers the 'Warsaw system' and fundamentally, to unify the liability system among the nations. The International Civil Aviation Organization(ICAO) will therefore reinforce its efforts to further promote a legal environment that adequately reflects the public interest and the needs of the parties involved. The ICAO Study Group met in April, 1998, together with the Drafting Committee. The time between the "Special Group on the Modernization and Consolidation of the 'Warsaw system'(SGMW)" and the Diplomatic Conference must be actively utilized to arrange for profound studies of the outstanding issues and for wide international consultations with a view to narrowing the scope of differences and preparing for a global international consensus. From 11 to 28 May 1999 the ICAO Headquarters at Montreal hosted a Diplomatic Conference convened to consider, with a view to adoption, a draft Convention intended to modernize and to integrate replace the instruments of the Warsaw system. The Council of ICAO convened this Conference under the Procedure for the Adoption of International Conventions. Some 525 participants from 121 Contracting States of ICAO attended, one non-contracting State, 11 observer delegations from international organizations, a total of 544 registered participants took part in the historic three-week conference which began on 10 May. The Conference was a success since it adopted a new Convention for the Unification of Certain Rules for International Carriage by Air. The 1999 Montreal Convention, created and signed by representatives of 52 countries at an international conference convened by ICAO at Montreal on May 28, 1999, came into effect on November 4, 2003. Representatives of 30 countries have now formally ratified the Convention under their respective national procedures and ratification of the United States, which was the 30th country to ratify, took place on September 5, 2003. Under Article 53.6 of the Montreal Convention, it enters into force on the 60th day following the deposit of the 30th instrument of ratification or acceptation. The United States' ratification was deposited with ICAO on September 5, 2003. The ICAO have succeeded in modernizing and consolidating a 70-year old system of international instruments of private international law into one legal instrument that will provide, for years to come, an adequate level of compensation for those involved in international aircraft accidents. An international diplomatic conference on air law by ICAO of 1999 succeeded in adopting a new regime for air carrier liability, replacing the Warsaw Convention and five other related legal instruments with a single convention that provided for unlimited liability in relation to passengers. Victims of international air accidents and their families will be better protected and compensated under the new Montreal Convention, which modernizes and consolidates a seventy-five year old system of international instruments of private international law into one legal instrument. A major feature of the new legal instrument is the concept of unlimited liability. Whereas the Warsaw Convention set a limit of 125,000 Gold Francs (approximately US$ 8,300) in case of death or injury to passengers, the Montreal Convention introduces a two-tier system. The first tier includes strict liability up to l00,000 Special Drawing Rights (SDR: approximately US$ 135,000), irrespective of a carrier's fault. The second tier is based on presumption of fault of a carrier and has no limit of liability. The 1999 Montreal Convention also includes the following main elements; 1. In cases of aircraft accidents, air carriers are called upon to provide advance payments, without delay, to assist entitled persons in meeting immediate economic needs; the amount of this initial payment will be subject to national law and will be deductable from the final settlement; 2. Air carriers must submit proof of insurance, thereby ensuring the availability of financial resources in cases of automatic payments or litigation; 3. The legal action for damages resulting from the death or injury of a passenger may be filed in the country where, at the time of the accident, the passenger had his or her principal and permanent residence, subject to certain conditions. The new Montreal Convention of 1999 included the 5th jurisdiction - the place of residence of the claimant. The acceptance of the 5th jurisdiction is a diplomatic victory for the US and it can be realistically expected that claimants' lawyers will use every opportunity to file the claim in the US jurisdiction - it brings advantages in the liberal system of discovery, much wider scope of compensable non-economic damages than anywhere else in the world and the jury system prone to very generous awards. 4. The facilitation in the recovery of damages without the need for lengthy litigation, and simplification and modernization of documentation related to passengers. In developing this new Montreal Convention, we were able to reach a delicate balance between the needs and interests of all partners in international civil aviation, States, the travelling public, air carriers and the transport industry. Unlike the Warsaw Convention, the threshold of l00,000 SDR specified by the Montreal Convention, as well as remaining liability limits in relation to air passengers and delay, are subject to periodic review and may be revised once every five years. The primary aim of unification of private law as well as the new Montreal Convention is not only to remove or to minimize the conflict of laws but also to avoid conflict of jurisdictions. In order to find a rational solution to disputes between nations which have adopted differing liability systems in international air transport, we need fundamentally to reform their countries's domestic air law based on the new Montreal Convention. It is a desirable and necessary for us to ratify rapidly the new Montreal Convention by the contracting states of lCAO including the Republic of Korea. According to the Korean and Japanese ideas, airlines should not only pay compensation to passengers immediately after the accident, but also the so-called 'condolence' money to the next of kin. Condolence money is a gift to help a dead person's spirit in the hereafter : it is given on account of the grief and sorrow suffered by the next of kin, and it has risen considerably over the years. The total amount of the Korean and Japanese claims in the case of death is calculated on the basis of the loss of earned income, funeral expenses and material demage (baggage etc.), plus condolence money. The economic and social change will be occurred continuously after conclusion of the new Montreal Convention. In addition, the real value of life and human right will be enhanced substantially. The amount of compensation for damage caused by aircraft accident has increased in dollar amount as well as in volume. All air carrier's liability should extend to loss of expectation of leisure activities, as well as to damage to property, and mental and physical injuries. When victims are not satisfied with the amount of the compensation for damage caused by aircraft accident for which an airline corporation is liable under the current liability system. I also would like to propose my opinion that it is reasonable and necessary for us to interpret broadly the meaning of the bodily injury on Article 17 of the new Montreal Convention so as to be included the mental injury and condolence. Furthermore, Korea and Japan has not existed the Air Transport Act regulated the civil liability of air carrier such as Air Transport Act (Luftverkehrsgestz) in Germany. It is necessary for us to enact "the Korean Air Transport Contract Act (provisional title)" in order to regulate the civil liability of air carrier including the protection of the victims and injured persons caused by aircraft accident.
1. Sixteen normal healthy subjects free from occult blood in the stool were selected and administered with their
Recently concerns have been raised due to the unbalanced supply of crops: the price of crops has been unstable and at one point the price went up so high that the word Agflation(agriculture+ inflation) was coined. Korea, in particular, is a small-sized country and needs to secure the stable supply of crops by investing in the produce importation at a national level. Investment in foreign produce importation is becoming more important as a measure for sufficient supply of crops, limited supply of domestic crops, weakened farming conditions worldwide, as well as recent changes in the use of crops due to the development of bio-fuels, influence of carbon emission on crops, the price increase in crops, and influx of foreign hot money. However, there are many problems with investing in foreign produce importation: lack of support from the government; lack of farming information and technology; difficulty in securing the capital; no immediate pay-off from the investment and insufficient management. Although foreign produce is originally more price-competitive than domestic produce, it loses its competiveness in the process of importation (due to high tariffs) and poor distribution system, which makes it difficult to sell in Korea. Therefore, investment in foreign produce importation is being questioned for feasibility; to make it possible, foreign produce must maintain the price-competitiveness. Especially, harvest of agricultural products depends on natural and geographical conditions of each country and those products have indigenous properties, so distribution system according to import and export of agricultural products should be treated more carefully than that of other industries. Distribution costs are differentiated into each item and include cost of sorting and wrapping, cost of wrapping materials, cost of domestic transport, cost of international transport and cost of clearing customs for import and export. So transporting and storing agricultural products generates considerable costs compared with other products. Also, due to upgrade of dietary life, needs for stability, taste and visible quality toward food including agricultural products are being raised and wrong way of storage causes decomposition of food and loss of freshness, making the storage more difficult than that in room temperature, so storage and transport in distribution of agricultural products needs specialty. In addition, because lack of specialty in distribution and circulation such as storage and wrapping does not solve limit factors in distance, the distribution and circulation has been limited to a form of import and export within short-distant region. Therefore, need for distribution out-sourcing which can satisfy specialty in managing distribution and circulation and it is needed to establish more effective distribution system. However, existing distribution system of agricultural products is exposed to various problems including problems in distribution channel, making distribution and strategy for distribution and those problems are as follows. First, in case of investment in overseas agricultural industry, stable supply of the products is difficult because areas of production are dispersed widely and influenced by outer factors due to including overseas distribution channels. Also, at the aspect of quality, standardization of products is difficult, distribution system is quite complicated and unreasonable due to long distribution channels according to international trade and financial and institutional support is not enough. Especially, there are quite a lot of ineffective factors including multi level distribution process, dramatic gap between production cost and customer's cost, lack of physical distribution facilities and difficulties in storage and transport due to lack of wrapping containers. Besides, because import and export of agricultural products has been manages under the company's own distribution according to transaction contract between manufacturers and exporting company, efficiency is low due to excessive investment in fixed costs and lack of specialty in dealing with agricultural products causes fall of value of products, showing the limit to lose price-competitiveness. Especially, because lack of specialty in distribution and circulation such as storage and wrapping does not solve limit factors in distance, the distribution and circulation has been limited to a form of import and export within short-distant region. Therefore, need for distribution out-sourcing which can satisfy specialty in managing distribution and circulation and it is needed to establish more effective distribution system. Second, among tangible and intangible services which promote the efficiency of the whole distribution, a function building distribution environment which includes distribution information, system for standard and inspection, distribution finance, system for diversification of risks, education and training, distribution administration and tax system is wanted. In general, such a function building distribution environment is difficult to be changed and supplement innovatively because its effect compared with investment does not appear immediately despite of its necessity. Especially, in case of distribution of agricultural products, as a function of collecting and distributing is performed individually through various channels, the importance of distribution information and standardization is getting more focus due to the problem of repetition of work and lack of specialty. Also, efficient management of distribution is quite difficult due to lack of professionals in distribution, so support to professional education is needed. Third, though effort to keep self-sufficiency ratio of staple food, rice is regarded as important at the government level, level of dependency on overseas of others crops is high. Therefore, plan for stable securing food resources aside from staple food is also necessary. Especially, governmental organizations of agricultural products distribution in Korea are production-centered and have unreasonable structure whose function at the aspect of distribution and consumption is quite insufficient. And development of new distribution channels which can deal with changes in distribution environment and they do not achieve actual results of strategy for distribution due to non-positive strategy for price distribution. That is, it implies the possibility that base for supply will become vulnerable because it does not mediate appropriate interests on total distribution channels such as manufacturers, wholesale dealers and vendors by emphasizing consumer protection excessively in the distribution of agricultural products. Therefore, this study examined fundamental concept and actual situation for our investment to overseas agriculture, drew necessities, considerations, problems, etc. of overseas agricultural investment and suggested improvements at the level of distribution for price competitiveness of agricultural products cultivated in overseas under five aspects; government's indirect support, distribution's modernization and distribution information function's strengthening, government's political support for distribution facility, transportation route, load and unloading works' improvement, price competitiveness' securing, professional manpower's cultivation by education and training, etc. Here are some suggestions for foreign produce importation. First, the government should conduct a survey on the current distribution channels and analyze the situation to establish a measure for long-term development plans. By providing each agricultural area with a guideline for planning appropriate production of crops, the government can help farmers be ready for importation, and prevent them from producing same crops all at the same time. Government can sign an MOU with the foreign government and promote the importation so that the development of agricultural resources can be stable and steady. Second, the government can establish a strategy for an effective distribution system by providing farmers and agriculture-related workers with the distribution information such as price, production, demand, market structure and location, feature of each crop, and etc. In order for such distribution system to become feasible, the government needs to reconstruct the current distribution system, designate a public organization for providing distribution information and set the criteria for level of produce quality, trade units, and package units. Third, the government should provide financial support and a policy to seek an efficient distribution channel for foreign produce to be delivered fresh: the government should expand distribution facilities (for selecting, packaging, storing, and processing) and transportation vehicles while modernizing old facilities. There should be another policy to improve the efficiency of unloading, and to lower the cost of distribution. Fourth, it is necessary to enact a new law covering exceptional cases for importing produce in order to maintain the price competitiveness; currently the high tariffs is keeping the imported produce from being distributed domestically. However, the new adjustment should be made carefully within the WTO regulations since it can create a problem from giving preferential tariffs. The government can also simplify the distribution channels in order to reduce the cost in the distribution process. Fifth, the government should educate distributors to raise the efficiency and to modernize the distribution system. It is necessary to develop human resources by educating people regarding the foreign agricultural environment, the produce quality, management skills, and by introducing some successful cases in advanced countries.
This study investigates the current preservation and management of four records and documentary heritage in Korea that is in the UNESCO's Memory of the World Register. The study analyzes their problems and corresponding solutions in digitizing those world records heritages. This study also reviews additional four documentary books in Korea that are in the wish list to add to UNESCO's Memory of the World Register. This study is organized as the following: Chapter 2 examines the value and meanings of world records and documentary heritage in Korea. The registry requirements and procedures of UNESCO's Memory of the World Register are examined. The currently registered records of Korea include Hunmin-Chongum, the Annals of the Choson Dynasty, the Diaries of the Royal Secretariat (Seungjeongwon Ilgi), and Buljo- Jikji-Simche-Yojeol (vol. II). These records heritage's worth and significance are carefully analyzed. For example, Hunmin-Chongum("訓民正音") is consisted of unique and systematic letters. Letters were delicately explained with examples in its original manual at the time of letter's creation, which is an unparalleled case in the world documentary history. The Annals of the Choson Dynasty("朝鮮王朝實錄") are the most comprehensive historic documents that contain the longest period of time in history. Their truthfulness and reliability in describing history give credits to the annals. The Royal Secretariat Diary (called Seungjeongwon-Ilgi("承政院日記")) is the most voluminous primary resources in history, superior to the Annals of Choson Dynasty and Twenty Five Histories in China. Jikji("直指") is the oldest existing book published by movable metal print sets in the world. It evidences the beginning of metal printing in the world printing history and is worthy of being as world heritage. The review of the four registered records confirms that they are valuable world documentary heritage that transfers culture of mankind to next generations and should be preserved carefully and safely without deterioration or loss. Chapter 3 investigates the current status of preservation and management of three repositories that store the four registered records in Korea. The repositories include Kyujanggak Archives in Seoul National University, Pusan Records and Information Center of National Records and Archives Service, and Gansong Art Museum. The quality of their preservation and management are excellent in all of three institutions by the following aspects: 1) detailed security measures are close to perfection 2) archiving practices are very careful by using a special stack room in steady temperature and humidity and depositing it in stack or archival box made of paulownia tree and 3) fire prevention, lighting, and fumigation are thoroughly prepared. Chapter 4 summarizes the status quo of digitization projects of records heritage in Korea. The most important issue related to digitization and database construction on Korean records heritage is likely to set up the standardization of digitization processes and facilities. It is urgently necessary to develop comprehensive standard systems for digitization. Two institutions are closely interested in these tasks: 1) the National Records and Archives Service experienced in developing government records management systems; and 2) the Cultural Heritage Administration interested in digitization of Korean old documents. In collaboration of these two institutions, a new standard system will be designed for digitizing records heritage on Korean Studies. Chapter 5 deals with additional Korean records heritage in the wish list for UNESCO's Memory of the World Register, including: 1) Wooden Printing Blocks(經板) of Koryo-Taejangkyong(高麗大藏經) in Haein Temple(海印寺); 2) Dongui-Bogam("東醫寶鑑") 3) Samguk-Yusa("三國遺事") and 4) Mugujeonggwangdaedaranigyeong. Their world value and importance are examined as followings. Wooden Printing Blocks of Koryo-Taejangkyong in Haein Temple is the worldly oldest wooden printing block of cannon of Buddhism that still exist and was created over 750 years ago. It needs a special conservation treatment to disinfect germs residing in surface and inside of wooden plates. Otherwise, it may be damaged seriously. For its effective conservation and preservation, we hope that UNESCO and Government will schedule special care and budget and join the list of Memory of the Word Register. Dongui-Bogam is the most comprehensive and well-written medical book in the Korean history, summarizing all medical books in Korea and China from the Ancient Times through the early 17th century and concentrating on Korean herb medicine and prescriptions. It is proved as the best clinical guidebook in the 17th century for doctors and practitioners to easily use. The book was also published in China and Japan in the 18th century and greatly influenced the development of practical clinic and medical research in Asia at that time. This is why Dongui Bogam is in the wish list to register to the Memory of the World. Samguk-Yusa is evaluated as one of the most comprehensive history books and treasure sources in Korea, which illustrates foundations of Korean people and covers histories and cultures of ancient Korean peninsula and nearby countries. The book contains the oldest fixed form verse, called Hyang-Ka(鄕歌), and became the origin of Korean literature. In particular, the section of Gi-ee(紀異篇) describes the historical processes of dynasty transition from the first dynasty Gochosun(古朝鮮) to Goguryeo(高句麗) and illustrates the identity of Korean people from its historical origin. This book is worthy of adding to the Memory of the World Register. Mugujeonggwangdaedaranigyeong is the oldest book printed by wooden type plates, and it is estimated to print in between 706 and 751. It contains several reasons and evidence to be worthy of adding to the list of the Memory of the World. It is the greatest documentary heritage that represents the first wooden printing book that still exists in the world as well as illustrates the history of wooden printing in Korea.
The results of ground vegetation experiment conducted at completely denuded forestland in the mudstone region are summerized as follows: On the reaults of soiling quantity the effect of soiling was observed where depth of soiling over 10 cm was practiced, and a plot where treated with 15cm soiling and without fertilizer showed poor growth and it was even worser than the plot where soiling was practiced only 1 cm in thikness but applied adequate amount of fertilizers. The depth of slits between 30cm and 40cm showed no significant difference in the effect. A plot where covered with vegetation bag showed somewhat better results in seed loss and early growth but no differences observed in the fall result over the none covered plot. And then, it is recommendable to have soiling over 10cm in thikness with slit of 30cm and 30cm in depth and to apply 30 gram of fertilizer (22;22:11, 50 gram) per slit. On various soiling materials trial there were no striking differences in the effect of soiling between weathered granite soil, wheathered tuffs soil and weathered mudstone soil. In the treatment with various green materials, a plot treated with straw mat showed a significant difference at 1 percent. The results show that weathered mudstone soil is effective to use as soiling materials and straw mat treatment was better. On forest fertilization trial, in the mudstone region where red and black pine trees already existing at a rate of 2,000-3,000 trees per hectare had applied 110kg of compound fertilizers (9:12:3 and 22:22:11) per hectare basis in terms of plant nutrient. As a result, the difference in effect between the compound fertilizers was not found however the leaf color and leaf length of the fertilizer added plot showed darker and longer at 30 percent over the no fertilizer received plot. Compound fertilizers, 14:37:12 and 9:12:3 were applied to alder trees at a rate of 20 gram and 40 gram per tree in terms of plant nutrient and a remarkable growth accelerantion was observed where 40 grams of plant nutrient applied. The effect difference between the compound fertilizers was not found. On investigation of tree root elongation, forty years old red pine trees showed only 15cm tap root elongation through mudstone while black pine had 23 cm tap root elongation. The total length of supporting root elongtion of red and black pines showed 20 and 13 meters, respectively. The tap roots of Black locusts were not able to elongate through mudstone, however, the supporting roots tended to develop to the underneath of pine tree where some moisture content is available. Black locusts And grown on the residual soil of mudstone normally die between 8 to 10 years. The red pine trees show flat in tree shape while black pine had triangle in the shape. With the results it can be said that in an artificial reforestation in denuded forest land of the mudstone region the adequate slit and enough amount of fertiliizer application must be provided for the succesful performance of the program. On integrated experimental results of 1972. for the establishment of ground vegetation on the completely denuded forest land in mudstone region, soiling could be effectively practiced with weathered mudstone soil and it would not specially necessiate to have either weathered granite or tuffssoil for the soiling. And the soiling depth should be more than 10 cm in thickness. Among green materials used the straw mat proved to be the most effective reatment. Three major factors which enable to establish ground vegetation by the shortest period of time: A. Physical improvement of soil is necessary to breakdown of the horizontal cracks sushas Slit, contour line plot, seeding hole and etc., and soiling with weathered mudstone soil. B. Chemical improvement of soil: is needed sufficient amount of fertilizer application 300~400kg ha,
These studies were conducted to investigate nutrient sources and supplementary materials of synthetic compost media for Agaricus bisporus culture. Investigation were carried out to establish the optimum composition for compost of Agaricus bisporus methods of out-door fermentation and peakheating with rice straw as the main substrate of the media. The incidence and flora of harmful organisms in rice straw compost and their control were also studied. 1. When rice straw was used as the main substrate in synthetic compost as a carbon source. yields were remarkably high. Fermentation was more rapid than that of barley straw or wheat straw, and the total nitrogen content was high in rice straw compost. 2. Since the morphological and physico-chemical nature of Japonica and Indica types of rice straw are greatly dissimilar. there were apparent differences in the process of compost fermentation. Fermentation of Indica type straw proceeded more rapidly with a shortening the compost period, reducing the water supply, and required adding of supplementary materials for producing stable physical conditions. 3. Use of barley straw compost resulted in a smaller crop compared with rice straw. but when a 50%, barley straw and 50% rice straw mixture was used, the yield was almost the same as that using only rice straw. 4. There were extremely high positive correlations between yield of Agaricus bisporus and the total nitrogen, organic nitrogen, amino acids, amides and amino sugar nitrogen content of compost. The mycerial growth and fruit body formation were severely inhibited by ammonium nitrogen. 5. When rice straw was used as the main substrate for compost media, urea was the most suitable source of nitrogen. Poor results were obtained with calcium cyanamide and ammonium sulfate. When urea was applied three separate times, nitrogen loss during composting was decreased and the total nitrogen content of compost was increased. 6. The supplementation of organic nutrient activated compost fermentation and increased yield of Agaricus bisporus. The best sources of organic nutrients were: perilla meal, sesame meal, wheat bran and poultry manure, etc. 7. Soybean meal, tobacco powder and glutamic acid fermentation by-products which were industrial wastes, could be substituted for perilla meal, sesame meal and wheat bran as organic nutrient sources for compost media. B. When gypsum and zeolite were added to rice straw. physical deterioration of compost due to excess moisture and caramelization was observed. The Indica type of straw was more remarkable in increase of yield of Agricus bisporus by addition of supplementing materials than Japonica straw. 9. For preparing rice straw compost, the best mixture was prepared by 10% poultry manure, 5% perilla meal, 1. 2 to 1. 5% urea and 1% gypsum. At spring cropping, it was good to add rice bran to accelerate heat generation of the compost heap. 10. There was significantly high positive correlation (r=0.97) between accumulated temperature and the decomposition degree of compost during outdoor composting. The yield was highest at accumulated temperatures between 900 and
Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.