• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.741-762
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• 2015

This study examines the long-term prospects for a minimum living guarantee by public pensions for the elderly using a dynamic micro-simulation model. "Elderly poverty" here is an estimate calculated by considering only the public pension income and it means how public pension affects the minimum living guarantee for the elderly. The main results are: First the impact of the public pension system on elderly poverty can be decomposed into economic growth and institutional effect. When considering both effects, the absolute poverty rate of the elderly will be reduced to 20% by the year 2040. But when considering the institutional effect(except economic growth effect), that rate is expected to be a long-term level of around 90%. Second, even if the Basic Pension is indexed to 10% of A-value, the elderly poverty rate is only about 10%p to be reduced further, compared to the current CPI-indexed system. Third, current benefit formula for National Pension does not consider the actual correlation of income level and insured period; consequently, the reversal possibility of the replacement rate appears likely. Fourth, the reform of 2007 improves the sustainability of the National Pension; however, it deteriorates the adequacy of the pension policy, i.e., the past system would be better than the current system in regards to a reduction in elderly poverty. Further discussion is needed on aspects of correct pension reform assessments which is difficult to achieve without understanding the comprehensive benefits and costs to society.

• Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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• v.56 no.5
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• pp.655-662
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• 2018

To respond effectively to climate change following the launch of the new climate system, the government is seeking to expand the use of distributed power resources. Among them, the district heating system centered on Combined Heat and Power (CHP) is accepted as the most realistic alternative. On the other hand, the government recently announced the change of energy paradigm focusing on eco-friendly power generation from the base power generation through $8^{th}$ Basic Plan for Long-term Electricity Supply and Demand(BPE). In this study, we analyzed the quantitative effects of profit and loss on the CHP operating business by changing patterns of the heat production, caused by the change of energy paradigm. To do this, the power market long-term simulation was carried out according to the $7^{th}$ and $8^{th}$ BPE respectively, using the commercialized power market integrated analysis program. In addition, the CHP operating model is organized to calculate the power and heat production level for each CHP operation mode by utilizing the operating performance of 830MW class CHP in Seoul metropolitan area. Based on this, the operation optimization is performed for realizing the maximum operating profit and loss during the life-cycle of CHP through the commercialized integrated energy optimization program. As a result, it can be seen that the change of the energy paradigm of the government increased the level of the ordered power supply by Korean Power Exchange(KPX), decreased the cost of the heat production, and increased the operating contribution margin by 90.9 billion won for the 30 years.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.147-176
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• 2019

This paper uses research on the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) in South Korea to conduct a simulation analysis on the impact of nuclear power dependency and usage rates on the social costs of power generation. We compare the $7^{th}$ basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand, which was designed to increase nuclear power generation, to the $8^{th}$ basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand that decreased nuclear power generation and increased renewable energy generation in order to estimate changes in social costs and electricity rates according to the power generation mix. Our environmental generation mix simulation results indicate that social costs may increase by 22% within 10 years while direct generation cost and electricity rates based on generation and other production costs may increase by as much as 22% and 18%, respectively. Thus we confirm that the power generation mix from the $8^{th}$ basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand compared to the $7^{th}$ plan increases social costs of generation, which include environmental external costs.

• Journal of the Semiconductor & Display Technology
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.178-183
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• 2021

This paper describes a dynamic spectroscopic ellipsometry based on dual-wavelength calibration. DSE provides ellipsometric parameters at rates above 20 Hz, but the interferometer's sensitivity to temperature makes it difficult for that proposed system to maintain stable 𝜟k over long periods of time. To solve this problem, we set up an additional path in the DSE to perform simulations of the polarization phase calibration method using dual wavelengths. Through simulation, we were able to eliminate most of the polarization phase error and maintain a stable 𝜟k in the long-term stability experiment for 10 hours. This is the result that the 𝜟k stability of the proposed system is improved tens of times compared to the existing system.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.53-64
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• 2012

This paper is about the investment strategy in stocks on Fundamental analysis. Financial data of stocks from January 2. 2001 through October 30. 2009 were utilized in order to suggest the investment strategies. Fundamental analysis was used in stocks-related strategy. The portfolios are composed of 3 criteria such as the buying criteria score, exchange cycle and selling conditions. The buying criteria score is determined assigned to each stock index according to the satisfaction condition of 15 parameters selected considering the grue's criteria. The stock buying alternatives has two options with buying stocks over 13 points and over 14 points of buying criteria score. The seven exchange cycles and three selling methods are considered. So total number of portfolios is 42($2{\times}7{\times}3=42$). The simulation has been executed about each 42 portfolios and we figured out with the simulation result that 83.33% of 35 portfolios are more profitable than average stock market profit(203.43%). The outcome of this research is summarized in two parts. First, it's the exchange strategy of portfolio. The result shows that value-oriented investment (long-term investment) strategy yields much higher than short-term investment strategies of stocks. Second, it's about the exchange cycle forming the portfolios. The result shows that the rate of return for the portfolio is the best when exchange cycle is 18 months.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.42 no.2
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• pp.9-17
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• 2019

In order to deal with high uncertainty and variability in emergency medical centers, many researchers have developed various models for their operational planning and scheduling. However, most of the models just provide static plans without any risk measures as their results, and thus the users often lose the opportunity to analyze how much risk the patients have, whether the plan is still implementable or how the plan should be changed when an unexpected event happens. In this study, we construct a simulation model combined with a risk-based planning and scheduling module designed by Simio LLC. In addition to static schedules, it provides possibility of treatment delay for each patient as a risk measure, and updates the schedule to avoid the risk when it is needed. By using the simulation model, the users can experiment various scenarios in operations quickly, and also can make a decision not based on their past experience or intuition but based on scientific estimation of risks even in urgent situations. An example of such an operational decision making process is demonstrated for a real mid-size emergency medical center located in Seoul, Republic of Korea. The model is designed for temporal short-term planning especially, but it can be expanded for long-term planning also with some appropriate adjustments.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.88-96
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• 2013

Much attention has been needed in water resource management at the watershed due to drought and flooding issues caused by climate change in recent years. Increase in air temperature and changes in precipitation patterns due to climate change are affecting hydrologic cycles, such as evaporation and soil moisture. Thus, these phenomena result in increased runoff at the watershed. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model has been used to evaluate rainfall-runoff at the watershed reflecting effects on hydrology of various weather data such as rainfall, temperature, humidity, solar radiation, wind speed. For bias-correction of RCP data, at least 30 year data are needed. However, for most gaging stations, only precipitation data have been recorded and very little stations have recorded other weather data. In addition, the RCP scenario does not provide all weather data for the SWAT model. In this study, two scenarios were made to evaluate whether it would be possible to estimate streamflow using measured precipitation and long-term average values of other weather data required for running the SWAT. With measured long-term weather data (scenario 1) and with long-term average values of weather data except precipitation (scenario 2), the estimate streamflow values were almost the same with NSE value of 0.99. Increase/decrease by ${\pm}2%$, ${\pm}4%$ in temperature and humidity data did not affect streamflow. Thus, the RCP precipitation data for Hongcheon watershed were bias-corrected with measured long-term precipitation data to evaluate effects of climate change on streamflow. The results revealed that estimated streamflow for 2055s was the greatest among data for 2025s, 2055s, and 2085s. However, estimated streamflow for 2085s decreased by 9%. In addition, streamflow for Spring would be expected to increase compared with current data and streamflow for Summer will be decreased with RCP data. The results obtained in this study indicate that the streamflow could be estimated with long-term precipitation data only and effects of climate change could be evaluated using precipitation data as shown in this study.

• Advances in aircraft and spacecraft science
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.77-94
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• 2015

The paper focuses on the integration of a non-linear one-dimensional model of Synthetic Jet (SJ) actuator in a well-assessed numerical simulation method for turbulent compressible flows. The computational approach is intended to the implementation of a numerical tool suited for flow control simulations with affordable CPU resources. A strong compromise is sought between the use of boundary conditions or zero-dimensional models and the full simulation of the actuator cavity, in view of long-term simulation with multiple synthetic jet actuators. The model is integrated in a multi-domain numerical procedure where the controlled flow field is simulated by a standard CFD method for compressible RANS equations, while flow inside the actuator is reduced to a one-dimensional duct flow with a moving piston. The non-linear matching between the two systems, which ensures conservation of the mass, momentum and energy is explained. The numerical method is successfully tested against three typical test cases: the jet in quiescent air, the SJ in cross flow and the flow control on the NACA0015 airfoil.

• Journal of the Korean housing association
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.69-76
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• 2009

The Storm Water Management Model(SWMM) by EPA is a dynamic rainwater-runoff simulation model used for single event or long-term simulation of runoff quantity and quality from primarily urban areas. The SWMM simulation program is operated by the site area, the weather date, conduit plan etc. on reference region. The purpose of this study was to analyze flood area, the duration of flooded and surcharged on the reference region. Without rainwater stored tank, the area of flooded and surcharged on reference area is similar to the area of reference region. But, With rainwater stored tank, the area of flooded and surcharged on reference area is much reduced compared to without rainwater stored tank. According to SWMM simulation results, the rainwater stored tank is located closer to site is more effective for reduction of duration of flooded and surcharged and flow rate.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.159-171
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• 1999

This Paper aims to develop container terminal simulation models for medium and long term decision makings. It first undertakes in-depth survey of literature. finds its shortcomings and suggests some directions for improvement. It then proposes detailed design for the simulation models. Based on this it finally developes several simulation models and applies them to a hypothetical situation of a container terminal development. The results reveal that basic design questions such as length of quay, number of quay crane, size of storage area are well produced through the models.