• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제53권8호
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• pp.2610-2615
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• 2021

The prediction of irradiation-induced transition temperature shift for RPV steels is an important method for long term operation of nuclear power plant. Based on the irradiation embrittlement data, an irradiation-induced transition temperature shift prediction model is developed with machine learning method XGBoost. Then the residual, standard deviation and predicted value vs. measured value analysis are conducted to analyze the accuracy of this model. At last, Cu content threshold and saturation values analysis, temperature dependence, Ni/Cu dependence and flux effect are given to verify the reliability. Those results show that the prediction model developed with XGBoost has high accuracy for predicting the irradiation embrittlement trend of RPV steel. The prediction results are consistent with the current understanding of RPV embrittlement mechanism.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.55-60
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• 2022

Churn prediction is a critical long-term problem for many business like music, games, magazines etc. The churn probability can be used to study many aspects of a business including proactive customer marketing, sales prediction, and churn-sensitive pricing models. It is quite challenging to design machine learning model to predict the customer churn accurately due to the large volume of the time-series data and the temporal issues of the data. In this paper, a parallel artificial neural network is proposed to create a highly-accurate customer churn model on a large customer dataset. The proposed model has achieved significant improvement in the accuracy of churn prediction. The scalability and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is also studied.

• Corrosion Science and Technology
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• 제15권5호
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• pp.217-225
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• 2016

Linear polarization resistance (LPR) testing of soils has been used extensively by a number of water utilities across Australia for many years now to determine the condition of buried ferrous water mains. The LPR test itself is a relatively simple, inexpensive test that serves as a substitute for actual exhumation and physical inspection of buried water mains to determine corrosion losses. LPR testing results (and the corresponding pit depth estimates) in combination with proprietary pipe failure algorithms can provideauseful predictive tool in determiningthe current and future conditions of an asset. Anumber of LPR tests have been developed on soil by various researchers over the years1), but few have gained widespread commercial use, partly due to the difficulty in replicating the results. This author developed an electrochemical cell that was suitable for LPR soil testing and utilized this cell to test a series of soil samples obtained through an extensive program of field exhumations. The objective of this testing was to examine the relationship between short-term electrochemical testing and long-term in-situ corrosion of buried water mains, utilizing an LPR test that could be robustly replicated. Forty-one soil samples and related corrosion data were obtained from ad hoc condition assessments of buried water mains located throughout the Hunter region of New South Wales, Australia. Each sample was subjected to the electrochemical test developed by the author, and the resulting polarization data were compared with long-term pitting data obtained from each water main. The results of this testing program enabled the author to undertake a comprehensive review of the LPR technique as it is applied to soils and to examine whether correlations can be made between LPR testing results and long-term field corrosion.

• 한국해양공학회지
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• 제21권4호
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• pp.15-20
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• 2007

The harbor siltation by longshore sediment transports has become a serious problem on the East Coast of Korea. A reasonable prediction of the longshore sediment rate is important to approach the siltation problem effectively. In the recently developed 1-line model, the empirical constants of the sediment transport formula, which include the absolute quantity of sediment transport rate and the spatial distribution of breaking wave height by wave deformation, are treated as calibration parameters. Since these constants should be determined by the very long-term shoreline data, the longshore sediment rates are much more reasonable values. The method was applied to Hupo Beach, which has experienced heavy siltation. The authors also discuss long-term shoreline change using aerial photos and the observed wave-induced current patterns. According to the result, the SW-direction sediment transport rate was $146,892m^3/year$, and the NE direction was $2,694,450m^3/year$ at Hupo Beach for the last 11 years. The siltation in Hupo Harbor might be affected by the NE-direction sediment transport from Hupo Beach.

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제23권3호
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• pp.356-366
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• 2007

In this paper a methodology is developed to prioritize replacement of water distribution pipes according to the economical efficiency of replacement and assess the long-term effects of water main replacement policies on water distribution systems. The methodology is implemented with MATLAB to develop a computer algorithm which is used to apply the methodology to a case study water distribution system. A pipe break prediction model is used to estimate future costs of pipe repair and replacement, and the economically optimal replacement time of a pipe is estimated by obtaining the time at which the present worth of the total costs of repair and replacement is minimum. The equation for estimating the present worth of the total cost is modified to reflect the fact that a pipe can be replaced in between of failure events. The results of the analyses show that about 9.5% of the pipes in the case study system is required to be replaced within the planning horizon. Analyses of the yearly pipe replacement requirements for the case study system are provided along with the compositions of the replacement. The effects of water main replacement policies, for which yearly replacement length scenario and yearly replacement budget scenario are used, during a planning horizon are simulated in terms of the predicted number of pipe failures and the saved repair costs.

• 한국농공학회지
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• 제32권E호
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• pp.33-46
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• 1990

Abstract Over 700/0 of the rural land area in Korea is mountainous and small watersheds provide most of the water resources for agricutural use. To provide an appropriate tool for the agricultural water resource development project, SNUA2, a mathematical model for simulating the physical processes governing the precipitation-runoff relationships and predicting the storm and long-term runoff quantities from the small mountainous watersheds was developed. The hydrological characteristics of small mountainous watersheds were reviewed to select appropriate theories for the simulation of the runoff processes, and a deterministic and distributed model was developed. In this, subsurface flows are routed by solving Richard's two dimensional equation, the dynamics of soil moisture contents are simulated by the consideration of phenological factors of canopy plants and surface flows are routed by solving the kinematic wave theory by numerical analysis. As a result of an application test of the model to the Sanglim watershed, peak flow rates of storm runoff were over-estimated by up to 184.2%. The occurence time of peak flow and total runoff volume of storm runoffs simulated were consistent with observed values and the annual runoff volumes were simulated in the error range of less than 5.8%.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제54권1호
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• pp.27-38
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• 2012

This study is to analyse the hydrological behavior of agricultural reservoir using CAT (Catchment hydrologic cycle Assessment Tool). The CAT is a water cycle analysis model in order to quantitatively assess the characteristics of the short/long-term changes in watershed. It supports the effective design of water cycle improvement facilities by supplementing the strengths and weaknesses of existing conceptual parameter-based lumped hydrologic models and physical parameter-based distributed hydrologic models. The CAT especially supports the analysis of runoff processes in paddy fields and reservoirs. To evaluate the impact of agricultural reservoir operation and irrigation water supply on long-term rainfall-runoff process, the CAT was applied to Idong experimental catchment, operated for research on the rural catchment characteristics and accumulated long term data by hydrological observation equipments since 2000. From the results of the main control points, Idong, Yongdeok and Misan reservoirs, the daily water levels of those points are consistent well with observed water levels, and the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiencies were 0.32~0.89 (2001~2007) and correlation coefficients were 0.73~0.98.

• 전기학회논문지P
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• 제67권2호
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• pp.112-118
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• 2018

In recent years, decentralized power have been increasing due to environmental problems, liberalization of electricity markets and technological developments. These changes have led to the evolution of power generation, transmission, and distribution into discrete sectors and the division of integrated power systems. Therefore, studies are underway to efficiently supply power and reduce losses to each sector's demand. This is a major concern for system planners and operators, as it accounts for a relatively high proportion of total power, with a transmission and distribution loss of 4-6%. Therefore, this paper analyzes the status of loss management based on the current transmission and distribution loss rate of each country and transmission loss management cases of each national power company, and proposes a loss rate prediction algorithm according to the long-term transmission system plan. The proposed algorithm predicts the demand-based long-term evolution and the loss rate of the grid to which the transmission plan is applied.

• 방사성폐기물학회지
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.63-78
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• 2016

To meet nuclear regulatory requirements, more than 95% individual radionuclides in the low- and intermediate-level radioactive waste inventory have to be identified. In this study, the radionuclide inventory has been estimated by taking the long-term radioactive waste generation, the development plan of disposal facility, and the new radioactive waste classification into account. The state of radioactive waste cumulated from 2014 was analyzed for various radioactive sources and future prospects for predicting the long-term radioactive waste generation. The predicted radionuclide inventory results are expected to contribute to secure the development of waste disposal facility and to deploy the safety case for its long-term safety assessment.

• 천문학회보
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• 제41권1호
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• pp.45.3-46
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• 2016

Solar activity shows a self-similarity as it has many periods of activity cycle in the time series of long-term observation, such as 13.5, 51, 150, 300 days, and 11, 88 years and so on. Since fractal dimension is a quantitative parameter for this kind of an irregular time series, we applied this method to long-term observations including sunspot number, total solar irradiance, and 3.75 GHz solar radio flux to predict the start and maximum times as well as expected maximum sunspot number for the next solar cycle. As a result, we found that the radio flux data tend to have lower fractal dimensions than the sunspot number data, which means that the radio emission from the sun is more regular than the solar activity expressed by sunspot number. Based on the relation between radio flux of 3.75 GHz and sunspot number, we could calculate the expected maximum sunspot number of solar cycle 24 as 156, while the observed value is 146. For the maximum time, estimated mean values from 7 different observations are January 2013 and this is quite different to observed value of February 2014. We speculate this is from extraordinary extended properties of solar cycle 24. As the cycle length of solar cycle 24, 10.1 to 12.8 years are expected, and the mean value is 11.0. This implies that the next solar cycle will be started at December 2019.