• 제목/요약/키워드: long-term ozone trend

검색결과 19건 처리시간 0.028초

돕슨 분광광도계를 이용한 서울 상공의 오존층 감시 및 장기변화 경향(1985~2017) (Monitoring and Long-term Trend of Total Column Ozone from Dobson Spectrophotometer in Seoul (1985~2017))

  • 박상서;조희구;구자호;임현광;이하나;김준;이윤곤
    • 대기
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    • 제29권1호
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    • pp.13-20
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    • 2019
  • Since 1985, the Dobson Spectrophotometer has been operated at Yonsei University, and this instrument has monitored the daily representative total ozone in Seoul. Climatological value for total ozone in Seoul is updated by using the daily representative observation data from 1985 to 2017. After updating the daily representative total ozone data, seasonal and inter-annual variation of total ozone in Seoul is also estimated after calculating inter-comparison between ground (Dobson Spectrophotometer) and satellite [Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)] observations. The global average of total ozone measured by satellite is 297 DU, and its recent amount is about 3.5% lower than the global amount in 1980s. In Seoul, daily representative total ozone is ranged from 225 DU to 518 DU with longterm mean value of 324.3 DU. In addition, monthly mean total ozone is estimated from 290 DU (October) to 362 DU (March), and yearly average of total ozone have been continuously increased since 1985. For the long-term trend of total ozone in Seoul, this study is considered the seasonal variation, Solar Cycle, and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. In addition to the natural oscillation effect, this study also considered to the long-term variation of sudden increase of total ozone due to the secondary ozone peak. By considering these natural effects, the long-term total ozone trends from 1985 to 2017 are estimated to be 1.11~1.46%/decade.

서울과 부산지역 기상의 영향을 제거한 오존농도 추세 (Meteorologically Adjusted Ozone Trends in the Seoul and Susan Metropolitan Areas)

  • 김유근;오인보;황미경
    • 한국대기환경학회지
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    • 제19권5호
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    • pp.561-568
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    • 2003
  • Surface ozone concentrations are highly sensitive to meteorological variability. Therefore, in order to reveal the long-term changes in ozone due to the changes in precursor emissions, we need to remove the effects of meteorological fluctuations on the annual distribution of surface ozone. In this paper, the meteorologically adjusted trends of daily maximum surface ozone concentrations in two major Korean cities (Seoul and Busan) are investigated based on ozone data from 11 (Seoul) and 6 (Busan) sites over the period 1992 ∼ 2000. The original time series consisting of the logarithm of daily maximum ozone concentrations are splitted into long-term, seasonal and short-term component using Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter. Meteorological effects are removed from filtered ozone series using multiple linear regression based on meteorologcial variables. The long-term evolution of ozone forming capability due to changes in precursor emission can be obtained applying the KZ filter to the residuals of the regression. The results indicated that meteorologically adjusted long-term daily maximum ozone concentrations had a significant upward trend (Seoul: + 3.02% yr$^{-1}$ , Busan: + 3.45% yr$^{-1}$ ). These changes of meteorologically adjusted ozone concentrations represent the effects of changing background ozone concentrations as well as the more localized changes in emissions.

서울 상공의 최신 성층권 오전 변화 경향 (Updated Trends of Stratospheric Ozone over Seoul)

  • 김준;조회구;이윤곤;오성남;백선균
    • 대기
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    • 제15권2호
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    • pp.101-118
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    • 2005
  • Atmospheric ozone changes temporally and spatially according to both anthropogenic and natural causes. It is essential to quantify the natural contributions to total ozone variations for the estimation of trend caused by anthropogenic processes. The aims of this study are to understand the intrinsic natural variability of long-term total ozone changes and to estimate more reliable ozone trend caused by anthropogenic ozone-depleting materials. For doing that, long-term time series for Seoul of monthly total ozone which were measured from both ground-based Dobson Spectrophotometer (Beck #124)(1985-2004) and satellite TOMS (1979-1984) are analyzed for selected period, after dividing the whole period (1979~2004) into two periods; the former period (1979~1991) and the latter period (1992~2004). In this study, ozone trends for the time series are calculated using multiple regression models with explanatory natural oscillations for the Arctic Oscillation(AO), North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO), North Pacific Oscillation(NPO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO), Quasi Biennial Oscillation(QBO), Southern Oscillation(SO), and Solar Cycle(SC) including tropopause pressure(TROPP). Using the developed models, more reliable anthropogenic ozone trend is estimated than previous studies that considered only QBO and SC as natural oscillations (eg; WMO, 1999). The quasi-anthropogenic ozone trend in Seoul is estimated to -0.12 %/decade during the whole period, -2.39 %/decade during the former period, and +0.10 %/decade during the latter period, respectively. Consequently, the net forcing mechanism of the natural oscillations on the ozone variability might be noticeably different in two time intervals with positive forcing for the former period (1979-1991) and negative forcing for the latter period (1992-2004). These results are also found to be consistent with those analyzed from the data observed at ground stations (Sapporo, Tateno) of Japan. In addition, the recent trend analyses for Seoul show positive change-in-trend estimates of +0.75 %/decade since 1997 relative to negative trend of -1.49 %/decade existing prior to 1997, showing -0.74 %/decade for the recent 8-year period since 1997. Also, additional supporting evidence for a slowdown in ozone depletion in the upper stratosphere has been obtained by Newchurch et al.(2003).

한반도 상공의 오존층 변화 1985~2009 (The Variations of Stratospheric Ozone over the Korean Peninsula 1985~2009)

  • 박상서;김준;조나영;이윤곤;조희구
    • 대기
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    • 제21권4호
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    • pp.349-359
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    • 2011
  • The climatology in stratospheric ozone over the Korean Peninsula, presented in previous studies (e.g., Cho et al., 2003; Kim et al., 2005), is updated by using daily and monthly data from satellite and ground-based data through December 2009. In addition, long-term satellite data [Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), 1979~2009] have been also analyzed in order to deduce the spatial distributions and temporal variations of the global total ozone. The global average of total ozone (1979~2009) is 298 DU which shows a minimum of about 244 DU in equatorial latitudes and increases poleward in both hemispheres to a maximum of about 391 DU in Okhotsk region. The recent period, from 2006 to 2009, shows reduction in total ozone by 6% relative to the values for the pre-1980s (1979~1982). The long-term trends were estimated by using a multiple linear regression model (e.g., WMO, 1999; Cho et al., 2003) including explanatory variables for the seasonal variation, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and solar cycle over three different time intervals: a whole interval from 1979 to 2009, the former interval from 1979 to 1992, and the later interval from 1993 to 2009 with a turnaround point of deep minimum in 1993 is related to the effect of Mt. Pinatubo eruption. The global trend shows -0.93% $decade^{-1}$ for the whole interval, whereas the former and the later interval trends amount to -2.59% $decade^{-1}$ and +0.95% $decade^{-1}$, respectively. Therefore, the long-term total ozone variations indicate that there are positive trends showing a recovery sign of the ozone layer in both North/South hemispheres since around 1993. Annual mean total ozone (1985~2009) is distributed from 298 DU for Jeju ($33.52^{\circ}N$) to 352 DU for Unggi ($42.32^{\circ}N$) in almost zonally symmetric pattern over the Korean Peninsula, with the latitudinal gradient of 6 DU $degree^{-1}$. It is apparent that seasonal variability of total ozone increases from Jeju toward Unggi. The annual mean total ozone for Seoul shows 323 DU, with the maximum of 359 DU in March and the minimum of 291 DU in October. It is found that the day to day variability in total ozone exhibits annual mean of 5.7% in increase and -5.2% in decrease. The variability as large as 38.4% in increase and 30.3% in decrease has been observed, respectively. The long-term trend analysis (e.g., WMO, 1999) of monthly total ozone data (1985~2009) merged by satellite and ground-based measurements over the Korean Peninsula shows increase of 1.27% $decade^{-1}$ to 0.80% $decade^{-1}$ from Jeju to Unggi, respectively, showing systematic decrease of the trend magnitude with latitude. This study also presents a new analysis of ozone density and trends in the vertical distribution of ozone for Seoul with data up to the end of 2009. The mean vertical distributions of ozone show that the maximum value of the ozone density is 16.5 DU $km^{-1}$ in the middle stratospheric layer between 24 km and 28 km. About 90.0% and 71.5% of total ozone are found in the troposphere and in the stratosphere between 15 and 33 km, respectively. The trend analysis reconfirms the previous results of significant positive ozone trend, of up to 5% $decade^{-1}$, in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere (0~24 km), with negative trend, of up to -5% $decade^{-1}$, in the stratosphere (24~38 km). In addition, the Umkehr data show a positive trend of about 3% $decade^{-1}$ in the upper stratosphere (38~48 km).

The Long Term Trends of Tropospheric Ozone in Major Regions in Korea

  • Shin, Hye Jung;Park, Ji Hoon;Park, Jong Sung;Song, In Ho;Park, Seung Myung;Roh, Soon A;Son, Jung Seok;Hong, You Deog
    • Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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    • 제11권4호
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    • pp.235-253
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    • 2017
  • This study was conducted for analyzing the contribution factors on ozone concentrations and its long term trends in each major city and province in Korea through several statistical methods such as simple linear regression, generalized linear model, KZ-filer, correlation matrix, Kringing method, and cluster analysis. The overall ozone levels in South Korea have been consistently increasing over the past 10 years. The ozone concentrations in Seoul, the biggest city in Korea, are the lowest in all areas with the highest increasing ratio for $95^{th}%$ ozone. It is thought that the active photochemical reaction could affect the higher ozone concentration increase. On the other hand, the ozone concentrations in Jeju are the highest in Korea with the highest increasing ratio for $5^{th}%$, $33^{th}%$, and $50^{th}%$ ozone. It is also thought that the weak $NO_x$ titration could be the reason of higher ozone concentrations in Jeju. In case of Jeju, transport related factors is the major factor affecting the ozone trend. Thus, it is assumed that the variation of ozone trend of Asian region affecting the ozone trend in Jeju, where domestic ozone photochemical reaction is less active than urban area. It is thought that the photochemical reaction plays the role of increasing of ozone concentrations in the urban area, even though the LRT affected on the increase of ozone concentrations in non-urban area.

HALOE 자료를 이용한 중위도 지역의 오존농도 추이분석 (Trend Analysis for Stratospheric Ozone Concentration in the Middle Latitude Northern Hemisphere Using HALOE Data)

  • 가수현;권미라;오정진
    • 한국대기환경학회지
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    • 제21권4호
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    • pp.413-422
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    • 2005
  • The ozone concentration measured by HALOE (Ver 19) from Oct. 1991 to Dec. 2003 is used for analyzing the variation of ozone concentration. The HALOE loaded in UARS is observing several gases in the atmosphere, from 10km to 80km. Fourier analysis of these data in the middle latitude northern hemisphere is reported in this paper. To detect any possible long term trends, the fourier transformed time series was back transformed after removing signals with time periods of less than 6 months. Although the results clearly show the strong annual cycle, it is difficult to show any long term trends from the fourier series. We also compared the ozone volume mixing ratio's from HALOE with that from the ground-based radiometry to evaluate the accuracy of microwave observation at Sookmyung Women's University.

통계적 기법을 적용한 서울의 오존 장기변동 대표측정소 선정 (Statistical Analysis for Ozone Long-term Trend Stations in Seoul, Korea)

  • 신혜정;박지훈;손정석;노순아;홍유덕
    • 환경영향평가
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    • 제24권2호
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    • pp.111-118
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    • 2015
  • 본 연구는 서울의 오존 장기변동 특성을 대표하는 대표측정소를 선정하기 위한 통계적인 기법을 구축하기 위하여 수행되었다. 2002년부터 2011년까지 10년간의 오존 시간 농도자료를 분석에 적용하였다. KZ 필터, 상관관계 매트릭스, 군집분석, 공간 분석 방법을 적용하여 대표측정소를 선정하였다. 상관관계 분석 결과 서울 신정동, 사당동, 번동 측정소의 오존 장기간 변동 추세가 높은 상관관계를 나타내었다. 군집분석에서도 세 측정소가 같은 군집으로 분석되었다. 공간분석 결과, 세 측정소가 다른 측정소와 공간적인 상관관계가 높게 나타났다. 이러한 분석결과와 상관계수값을 고려하였을 때, 신정동 측정소가 서울의 오존 장기변동 추세를 대표하는 측정소로 적합하였다. 본 연구 결과는 오존 이외의 대기오염물질의 분석을 위한 대표측정소 선정에도 적용될 수 있으며, 국가대기측정망의 공간적인 분포의 적절성을 평가하기 위해서도 사용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

비선형 회귀 모형을 이용한 서울지역 오존의 고농도 현상의 모형화 (Modeling of High Density of Ozone in Seoul Area with Non-Linear Regression)

  • 정수연;최기헌
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제22권4호
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    • pp.865-877
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    • 2009
  • 본 연구에서는 서울지역 오존의 기상상태와 추세경향에 따른 고농도 현상을 모수적 방법인 비선형회귀모형(nonlinear regression model)으로 모형화 하였다. 여기서는 1995년부터 1999년까지의 자료로부터 오존과 고농도 현상에 영향을 줄 수 있는 기상상태와 추세경향 등을 순차적으로 추가함으로써 고농도 현상을 예측하는 모형을 추정하였다.

대류권 오존 재분석 자료의 품질 검증: 포항 오존존데와 비교 검증 (Evaluation of the Troposphere Ozone in the Reanalysis Datasets: Comparison with Pohang Ozonesonde Observation)

  • 박진경;김서연;손석우
    • 대기
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    • 제29권1호
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    • pp.53-59
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    • 2019
  • The quality of troposphere ozone in three reanalysis datasets is evaluated with longterm ozonesonde measurement at Pohang, South Korea. The Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis (ERAI) and Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA2) are particularly examined in terms of the vertical ozone structure, seasonality and long-term trend in the lower troposphere. It turns out that MACC shows the smallest biases in the ozone profile, and has realistic seasonality of lower-tropospheric ozone concentration with a maximum ozone mixing ratio in spring and early summer and minimum in winter. MERRA2 also shows reasonably small biases. However, ERAI exhibits significant biases with substantially lower ozone mixing ratio in most seasons, except in mid summer, than the observation. It even fails to reproduce the seasonal cycle of lower-tropospheric ozone concentration. This result suggests that great caution is needed when analyzing tropospheric ozone using ERAI data. It is further found that, although not statistically significant, all datasets consistently show a decreasing trend of 850-hPa ozone concentration since 2003 as in the observation.

대기오염관리의 새로운 접근방법 (New Approach to Air Quality Management)

  • 윤명조
    • 환경위생공학
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    • 제8권2호
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    • pp.25-48
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    • 1993
  • International concern over the environmental pollution is ever increasing, and diversified countermeasures must be devised in Korea also. Global trend, damages, problems and countermeasures with respect to issues mentioned in the Rio Declaration, such as prevention of ozone layer destruction, reduction of migratory atmospheric pollution between neighboring countries, and prevention of global greenhouse effect, were discussed in this report. Conclusion of the report is summarized as follows : A. Measurement, Planning and Monitoring (1) Development and implementation of a global network for measurement and monitoring from the global aspects such factors as related to acid rain(Pioneer substances, pH, sulfate, nitrate), effect of global temperature(Air temperature, $CO_2$, $CH_4$, CFC, $N_2O$) and destruction of ozone layer($CFC_S$). (2) Establishment of network system via satellite monitoring movement of regional air mass, damage on the ozone layer and ground temperature distribution. B. Elucidation of Present State (1) Improvement and development of devices for carbon circulation capable of accurately forecasting input and output of carbon. (2) Developmental research on chemical reactions of greenhouse gas in the air. (3) Improvement and development of global circulation model(GCM) C. Impact Assessment Impact assessment on ecosystem, human body, agriculture, floodgate, land use, coastal ecology, industries, etc. D. Preventive Measures and Technology Development (1) Development and consumption of new energy (2) Development of new technology for removal of pioneer substances (3) Development of substitute matter for $CFC_S$ (4) Improvement of agriculture and forestry means to prevent the destruction of ozone layer and the greenhouse effect of the globe (5) Improvement of housing to prevent the destruction of ozone layer and the greenhouse effect of the globe (6) Development of new technology for probing underground water (7) Preservation of forest (8) Biomass 5. Policy Development (1) Development of strategy model (2) Development of long term forecast model (3) Development of penalty charge effect and expense evaluation methods (4) Feasibility study on regulations By establishing the above mentioned measures for environmentally sound and sustainable development to establish the right to live for humankind and to preserve the one and only earth.

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