• Title/Summary/Keyword: long-term cost

Search Result 998, Processing Time 0.022 seconds

Development of Deep Learning Based Deterioration Prediction Model for the Maintenance Planning of Highway Pavement (도로포장의 유지관리 계획 수립을 위한 딥러닝 기반 열화 예측 모델 개발)

  • Lee, Yongjun;Sun, Jongwan;Lee, Minjae
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
    • /
    • v.20 no.6
    • /
    • pp.34-43
    • /
    • 2019
  • The maintenance cost for road pavement is gradually increasing due to the continuous increase in road extension as well as increase in the number of old routes that have passed the public period. As a result, there is a need for a method of minimizing costs through preventative grievance preventive maintenance requires the establishment of a strategic plan through accurate prediction of road pavement. Hence, In this study, the deep neural network(DNN) and the recurrent neural network(RNN) were used in order to develop the expressway pavement damage prediction model. A superior model among these two network models was then suggested by comparing and analyzing their performance. In order to solve the RNN's vanishing gradient problem, the LSTM (Long short-term memory) circuits which are a more complicated form of the RNN structure were used. The learning result showed that the RMSE value of the RNN-LSTM model was 0.102 which was lower than the RMSE value of the DNN model, indicating that the performance of the RNN-LSTM model was superior. In addition, high accuracy of the RNN-LSTM model was verified through the comparison between the estimated average road pavement condition and the actually measured road pavement condition of the target section over time.

A Study on the Statistical Continuity of Electrical Construction Cost Index Applied Chain Method (전기공사비지수의 산정방식 변경에 따른 통계연속성 실증분석 연구)

  • Park, Houng-Hee
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
    • /
    • v.16 no.2
    • /
    • pp.46-53
    • /
    • 2015
  • Electrical construction cost index is composed of the cost of albor and material. The producer price index is used to the cost of material. The Bank of Korea restructured the formation method and the basic period of the producer price index in 2013. Because fixed-weighted method can't faithfully reflect industrial structure changes. The weighted value and price index of fixed-weighted method is fixed on the basicp eriod. Electrical construction cost index is changed from fixed-weighted method to chain-weighted method in september 2014, because of these on the need. But the change of organization in formation method changes the weighted value. So there is the need of analysis about the statistical continuity of electrical construction cost index. This study is focused on the time series analysis between fixed-weighted and chain-weighted electrical construction cost index. We uses unit root test, cointegration test, regression analysis of long and short term equation, fitness for the estimation of static forecast as time series analysis. We verify that chain-weighted electrical construction cost index can be replaced to fixed-weighted construction cost index accounting analyses result. So users of it recognize that chain-weighted electrical construction cost index has statistical continuity.

Exploratory Study on the Efficient Operation of Parcel Delivery Network with the Growth of Online Shopping Industries (온라인 쇼핑의 성장에 따른 택배물류 네트워크의 효율적 운영에 관한 탐색적 연구)

  • Lim, Hyunwoo;Lim, Jong Won;Yi, Hansuk
    • Asia Marketing Journal
    • /
    • v.9 no.2
    • /
    • pp.97-129
    • /
    • 2007
  • The critical link between consumer-based internet ordering and the delivery of the product to the consumer is a key success factor in online shopping. Market areas of online shopping company implies the range of space where products ordered from online shopping can be physically delivered to customers distributed over space with reasonable shipping cost and lead time through the physical distribution network. The average rate of growth in online shopping is 36% per year in Korea for the last 5 years. But there are no maps available that describe sales/delivery density of online shopping, few researches are focused on the short-term/long-term adaptation to demand increase by online shopping. In this paper (1) Maps of trade area are described indicating the sales/delivery density around the nation. (2) Empirical researches suggested that short-term adaptation to demand increase resulted in price reduction and service in enhancement of service quality in local transportation. But the long-term adaptation on the parts of parcel delivery industry are to be investigated in future researches.

  • PDF

Effects of Long-Term Harbor Shutdown and Temporal Operational Stoppage upon Optimal Design of Vertical Breakwater Caisson (장기간의 항만 폐쇄와 일시적 운영 중단이 직립 방파제 케이슨의 최적 설계에 미치는 영향)

  • Suh, Kyung-Duck;Kim, Deok-Lae;Kim, Kyung-Suk
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
    • /
    • v.19 no.2
    • /
    • pp.113-127
    • /
    • 2007
  • In this study, a model to calculate the expected total construction cost is developed that simultaneously considers the rehabilitation cost related to the sliding of the caisson, the economic damage cost due to harbor shutdown in the event of excessive caisson sliding, and the economic damage cost due to temporal operational stoppage by excessive wave overtopping. A discount rate is used to convert the damage costs occurred at different times to the present value. The optimal cross-section of a caisson is defined as the cross-section that requires a minimum expected total construction cost within the allowable limit for the expected sliding distance of the caisson during the lifetime of the breakwater. Two values are used for the allowable limit: 0.3 and 0.1 m. It was found that the economic damage cost due to harbor shutdown by excessive caisson sliding is more critical than the rehabilitation cost of the caisson or the economic damage cost by excessive wave overtopping in the decision of the optimal cross-section. In addition, the optimal cross-section of the caisson was shown to be determined by the allowable limit for the expected sliding distance rather than the minimum expected total construction cost as a larger value is used for the threshold sliding distance of the caisson for harbor shutdown.

Machine Allocation Based on Salvage Value for Minimizing Purchasing Costs of Consumable Auxiliary Tools (소모성 보조 장비 구입비용 최소화를 위한 잔존가치 기반의 장비 할당 문제)

  • Yoon, Sung-Wook;Jeong, Suk-Jae
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
    • /
    • v.23 no.4
    • /
    • pp.51-64
    • /
    • 2014
  • Small and medium Enterprises (SMEs), which have a manufacturing method of small quantity batch production produce goods using a general-purpose equipment and attached auxiliary tools. Many previous studies have focused on finding the effective resource allocations for improving the firms' productivity. It is very important for SMEs to keep costs low in assigning jobs to each resource, because they should meet the future uncertain demand of consumers under the limited budget. Using the concept of salvage cost, this paper proposes how to effectively allocate the tasks to main resources in the production process. The salvage cost is defined that purchasing cost minus decrease in value by workload, the method considering this is expected to reduce total purchasing costs during business period. To validate the effect of the proposed method, we proceed the real case study targeting on S company, PCB manufacturer to compare purchase amounts and its costs between the allocation proposed based salvage cost and current allocation method of current S company. As a results, In short-term (3 year) business period, salvage allocation have remarkable superior outcome to existing method, but gradually have cancelled out the effects in long-term (8 year) plans. Unlike the cycle allocation method, there exists the idle-equipments in allocation based salvage value. we additionally analyze the profits with respect to rental strategy of them during business period.

Seeking Alternative Models and Research Trends for Big Deals in the Electronic Journal Consortium (전자저널 빅딜 계약의 연구 동향과 대안 탐색)

  • Kim, Sang-Jun;Kim, Jeong-Hwan
    • Journal of Information Management
    • /
    • v.42 no.1
    • /
    • pp.85-111
    • /
    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study was to seek a workable alternative to replace a big deal related to the journal budget for the maintenance of academic libraries with the largest issue on the E-journal consortium. The contents of this study was to present it. It had examined the current situation, strengths, weaknesses and corresponding to replace the big deal contract. After reviewing the literature, we looked into the alternative activities for the big deal such as open access-based, usage-based, consortium improvement-based, publishers lead, and other models. As a result, the 'consortium cost reapportion model' was an alternative for the KESLI. The alternative was in the short term for cost division format, but long-term oriented for a consortium single(bloc) payment type or national licence model. The model was based on the data from the last year. It had evaluated download the PDF and HTML documents, but the three times weighting more than others, and the rest of 14 factors of 0.5 to 5 out of 100 total score. The total amount negotiated by national units 10, 20 and 30 grades for the final step was allocated to the participating library on the KESLI consortium.

Operation status of Agricultural Machinery Rental Service and its Improvement Plan (농업기계 임대사업 운영실태 및 개선방안)

  • Shin, Seung-Yeoub;Lee, Jung-Min;Kim, Yu-Yong;Noh, Jae-Seung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
    • /
    • v.22 no.4
    • /
    • pp.61-69
    • /
    • 2016
  • In order to reduce the farmers' burden of purchasing agricultural machinery and address the shortage of farm workers, the government have been promoting agricultural machinery rental service since 2003. Despite of political purpose, the outcome of agricultural machinery rental service turned out to be adverse, high cost and low efficiency, by the pork barrel projects operated from some municipalities. Therefore, this study was aimed to improve the efficiency of agricultural machinery rental service by analyzing the operation status of agricultural machinery in local government. A questionnaire survey was conducted at 134 cities and counties in terms of rent type, management personnel, business budget, agricultural machinery ownership, rental performance, use rates, operational problems, and improvement plan. This study found that some agricultural machinery rental offices were only focused on the short-term rental service, which caused the increasing number of operating personnel, required facilities/equipment. The short-term rental service has a limitation for promoting the mechanization rate in dry-field farming. Therefore, it should be carried out along with the long-term rental service which a lessee maintains and manages agricultural machinery directly. Furthermore, the reasonable number of agricultural machinery based on regional circumstances should be considered to meet rental demand and collect the minimal rental fee for purchasing new agricultural machinery and replacing old ones.

The Application of Operations Research to Librarianship : Some Research Directions (운영연구(OR)의 도서관응용 -그 몇가지 잠재적응용분야에 대하여-)

  • Choi Sung Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
    • /
    • v.4
    • /
    • pp.43-71
    • /
    • 1975
  • Operations research has developed rapidly since its origins in World War II. Practitioners of O. R. have contributed to almost every aspect of government and business. More recently, a number of operations researchers have turned their attention to library and information systems, and the author believes that significant research has resulted. It is the purpose of this essay to introduce the library audience to some of these accomplishments, to present some of the author's hypotheses on the subject of library management to which he belives O. R. has great potential, and to suggest some future research directions. Some problem areas in librianship where O. R. may play a part have been discussed and are summarized below. (1) Library location. It is usually necessary to make balance between accessibility and cost In location problems. Many mathematical methods are available for identifying the optimal locations once the balance between these two criteria has been decided. The major difficulties lie in relating cost to size and in taking future change into account when discriminating possible solutions. (2) Planning new facilities. Standard approaches to using mathematical models for simple investment decisions are well established. If the problem is one of choosing the most economical way of achieving a certain objective, one may compare th althenatives by using one of the discounted cash flow techniques. In other situations it may be necessary to use of cost-benefit approach. (3) Allocating library resources. In order to allocate the resources to best advantage the librarian needs to know how the effectiveness of the services he offers depends on the way he puts his resources. The O. R. approach to the problems is to construct a model representing effectiveness as a mathematical function of levels of different inputs(e.g., numbers of people in different jobs, acquisitions of different types, physical resources). (4) Long term planning. Resource allocation problems are generally concerned with up to one and a half years ahead. The longer term certainly offers both greater freedom of action and greater uncertainty. Thus it is difficult to generalize about long term planning problems. In other fields, however, O. R. has made a significant contribution to long range planning and it is likely to have one to make in librarianship as well. (5) Public relations. It is generally accepted that actual and potential users are too ignorant both of the range of library services provided and of how to make use of them. How should services be brought to the attention of potential users? The answer seems to lie in obtaining empirical evidence by controlled experiments in which a group of libraries participated. (6) Acquisition policy. In comparing alternative policies for acquisition of materials one needs to know the implications of each service which depends on the stock. Second is the relative importance to be ascribed to each service for each class of user. By reducing the level of the first, formal models will allow the librarian to concentrate his attention upon the value judgements which will be necessary for the second. (7) Loan policy. The approach to choosing between loan policies is much the same as the previous approach. (8) Manpower planning. For large library systems one should consider constructing models which will permit the skills necessary in the future with predictions of the skills that will be available, so as to allow informed decisions. (9) Management information system for libraries. A great deal of data can be available in libraries as a by-product of all recording activities. It is particularly tempting when procedures are computerized to make summary statistics available as a management information system. The values of information to particular decisions that may have to be taken future is best assessed in terms of a model of the relevant problem. (10) Management gaming. One of the most common uses of a management game is as a means of developing staff's to take decisions. The value of such exercises depends upon the validity of the computerized model. If the model were sufficiently simple to take the form of a mathematical equation, decision-makers would probably able to learn adequately from a graph. More complex situations require simulation models. (11) Diagnostics tools. Libraries are sufficiently complex systems that it would be useful to have available simple means of telling whether performance could be regarded as satisfactory which, if it could not, would also provide pointers to what was wrong. (12) Data banks. It would appear to be worth considering establishing a bank for certain types of data. It certain items on questionnaires were to take a standard form, a greater pool of data would de available for various analysis. (13) Effectiveness measures. The meaning of a library performance measure is not readily interpreted. Each measure must itself be assessed in relation to the corresponding measures for earlier periods of time and a standard measure that may be a corresponding measure in another library, the 'norm', the 'best practice', or user expectations.

  • PDF

Lifecycle cost assessment of best management practices for diffuse pollution control in Han River Basin (한강수계 비점오염원 저감시설의 생애주기비용 평가)

  • Lee, Soyoung;Maniquiz-Redillas, Marla C.;Lee, Jeong Yong;Mun, Hyunsaing;Kim, Lee-Hyung
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
    • /
    • v.18 no.4
    • /
    • pp.448-455
    • /
    • 2016
  • Diffuse pollution management in Korea initiated by the Ministry of Environment (MOE) resulted to the construction of pilot facilities termed Best Management Practices (BMPs). Twelve BMPs installed for the diffuse pollution management in the Kyung-An Stream were monitored since 2006. Data on the mass loading, removal efficiency, maintenance activities, etc. were gathered and utilized to conduct the evaluation of long-term performance of BMPs. The financial data such as actual construction, design and maintenance cost were also collected to evaluate the lifecycle cost (LCC) of BMPs. In this study, most of the maintenance activity was focused in the aesthetic maintenance that resulted to the annual maintenance cost of the four BMP types was closely similar ranging from 8,483 $/yr for retention pond to 8,888 $/yr infiltration system. The highest LCC were observed in constructed wetland ($418,324) while vegetated system had the lowest LCC ($210,418). LCC of BMPs was not so high as compared with the conventional treatment facility and sewage treatment plant. On the other hand, the relationship of removal efficiency on unit cost for TSS and TN was significant. This study will be used to design the cost effective BMP for diffuse pollution management and become models for LCC analysis.

An Economic Feasibility Study of AR CDM project in North Korea (북한 지역을 대상으로 한 조림 CDM 사업의 경제적 타당성 연구)

  • Han, Ki Joo;Youn, Yeo-Chang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
    • /
    • v.96 no.3
    • /
    • pp.235-244
    • /
    • 2007
  • Potentials of AR CDM project in North Korea are assessed and feasible land area for AR CDM project is estimated. According to our estimation, There could be 515,000 hectares of forest lands deforested before 1990 in North Korea and 8,854 hectares at the regional level of Gae-sung City, which are eligible for AR CDM project, based on researches of satellite image analyses conducted from 1980's to 1990's. A baseline scenario assumed 44.73 tones of carbon stored in soil per hectare with no vegetation above ground remained during the project period following the default value of IPCC's Good Practice Guidance for LULUCF considering soil structure, climate and land use of the project area. The scenario also assumes that black rocust (Robinia pseudoacacia) is planted and the CDM project is implemented for 20 years. The costs for producing greenhouse gases CER (certified emission reduction) credits include costs of tree planting and forest management, and costs of project negotiation and transactions for issuing the credits. It is estimated that 376 tones of carbon dioxide per hectare can be accumulated and 503 temporary CER credits per hectare and 265 long-term CER credits per hectare could be produced during the project period. It is estimated to cost US$ 4.04 and US$ 7.67 to provide one unit of temporary credit and long-term credit, respectively. These values can be regarded as the cost of conferring emission commitment of a country or a private entity. However, it is not clear which option is better economically because the replacement periods are different in these two cases.