• Title/Summary/Keyword: long-term cost

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Energy Transition Policy and Social Costs of Power Generation in South Korea (에너지 전환정책과 발전의 사회적 비용 -제7차와 제8차 전력수급기본계획 비교-)

  • Kim, Kwang In;Kim, Hyunsook;Cho, In-Koo
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.147-176
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    • 2019
  • This paper uses research on the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) in South Korea to conduct a simulation analysis on the impact of nuclear power dependency and usage rates on the social costs of power generation. We compare the $7^{th}$ basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand, which was designed to increase nuclear power generation, to the $8^{th}$ basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand that decreased nuclear power generation and increased renewable energy generation in order to estimate changes in social costs and electricity rates according to the power generation mix. Our environmental generation mix simulation results indicate that social costs may increase by 22% within 10 years while direct generation cost and electricity rates based on generation and other production costs may increase by as much as 22% and 18%, respectively. Thus we confirm that the power generation mix from the $8^{th}$ basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand compared to the $7^{th}$ plan increases social costs of generation, which include environmental external costs.

THREE-STAGED RISK EVALUATION MODEL FOR BIDDING ON INTERNATIONAL CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

  • Wooyong Jung;Seung Heon Han
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2011.02a
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    • pp.534-541
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    • 2011
  • Risk evaluation approaches for bidding on international construction projects are typically partitioned into three stages: country selection, project classification, and bid-cost evaluation. However, previous studies are frequently under attack in that they have several crucial limitations: 1) a dearth of studies about country selection risk tailored for the overseas construction market at a corporate level; 2) no consideration of uncertainties for input variable per se; 3) less probabilistic approaches in estimating a range of cost variance; and 4) less inclusion of covariance impacts. This study thus suggests a three-staged risk evaluation model to resolve these inherent problems. In the first stage, a country portfolio model that maximizes the expected construction market growth rate and profit rate while decreasing market uncertainty is formulated using multi-objective genetic analysis. Following this, probabilistic approaches for screening bad projects are suggested through applying various data mining methods such as discriminant logistic regression, neural network, C5.0, and support vector machine. For the last stage, the cost overrun prediction model is simulated for determining a reasonable bid cost, while considering non-parametric distribution, effects of systematic risks, and the firm's specific capability accrued in a given country. Through the three consecutive models, this study verifies that international construction risk can be allocated, reduced, and projected to some degree, thereby contributing to sustaining stable profits and revenues in both the short-term and the long-term perspective.

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A Comparative Study on Low-Carbon Port Management of Busan and LA/LB - On the Basis of Port Management Cost - (LA/LB항과 부산항의 저탄소 항만운영에 관한 비교연구 - 비용부담을 중심으로 -)

  • Cho, Dong-Oh
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.223-228
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    • 2010
  • In the midst of worldwide response to climate change, the advanced ports including LA/LB(Los Angeles/Long Beach) has started to reduce carbon emission from port area which has not been targets of interests in the worldwide cooperation. Recently, the Port of Busan has started to reduce carbon emission from the port area under the Green Port Strategy in Korea. However, the low-carbon port management increases the cost of port management and negatively impacts the port competitiveness in the short term. Therefore, the Busan Port Authority is carrying out the low-carbon projects directly and has not transfer the cost to the port users, such as shipowers, cargo owners and terminal operators. However, the Port Authority of LA/LB has transferred the cost at low-carbon port management to customers of port. In this study, comparative analysis on cost of low-carbon port management at Busan and LA/LB is carried out for sustainable port management.

Application of cost-sensitive LSTM in water level prediction for nuclear reactor pressurizer

  • Zhang, Jin;Wang, Xiaolong;Zhao, Cheng;Bai, Wei;Shen, Jun;Li, Yang;Pan, Zhisong;Duan, Yexin
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.52 no.7
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    • pp.1429-1435
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    • 2020
  • Applying an accurate parametric prediction model to identify abnormal or false pressurizer water levels (PWLs) is critical to the safe operation of marine pressurized water reactors (PWRs). Recently, deep-learning-based models have proved to be a powerful feature extractor to perform high-accuracy prediction. However, the effectiveness of models still suffers from two issues in PWL prediction: the correlations shifting over time between PWL and other feature parameters, and the example imbalance between fluctuation examples (minority) and stable examples (majority). To address these problems, we propose a cost-sensitive mechanism to facilitate the model to learn the feature representation of later examples and fluctuation examples. By weighting the standard mean square error loss with a cost-sensitive factor, we develop a Cost-Sensitive Long Short-Term Memory (CSLSTM) model to predict the PWL of PWRs. The overall performance of the CSLSTM is assessed by a variety of evaluation metrics with the experimental data collected from a marine PWR simulator. The comparisons with the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model and the Support Vector Regression (SVR) model demonstrate the effectiveness of the CSLSTM.

An Analytic Algotithm to Estimate Expected Generation and Marginal Costs (발전 및 한계비용의 해석적 추정법에 관한 연구)

  • 박영문;서보혁
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.31 no.7
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 1982
  • This paper derives the algorithm to estimate the operating cost, its marginal cost, and the reliability indices for the long term planning of power system. Treating the load duration curve and the system in the stochastic sense takes the place of the inverted load duration curve, effective load duration curve, and the numerical integration in the conventional methods. The time and accuracy of computation are substantially improved due to the fact that all expressions are represented by simple analytic form instead of the existing recursive form.

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Development of Life Cycle Cost Estimation Software on the Aspect of Maintenance Strategies (유지보수관점에서의 수명주기비용예측 소프트웨어 개발)

  • Jun, Hyun-Kyu;Kim, Jae-Hoon;Kim, Jong-Woon;Park, Jun-Seo
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2007.11a
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    • pp.777-783
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    • 2007
  • Life cycle costing is one of the most effective cost approaches when we choose a solution from series of alternative so the least long-term cost ownership is achieved. Life cycle costing in railway industry has been focused on the prediction of investment for railway vehicles. But in today, the life cycle cost, LCC, prediction on the aspect of operation and maintenance cost through whole life cycle is highly necessary. In this paper, we present a strategy for the development of life cycle cost estimation software on the aspect of maintenance strategies of railway vehicle. For this purpose, we suggested a structure of LCC software based on the UNIFE LCC model. And we developed a pilot version of software to evaluate the LCC model that we suggested for railway vehicle. We performed LCC analysis on the brake module of metro vehicle in case study and concluded that the software and model developed in this research could enough to support engineers in choosing better cost effective solutions from many alternatives.

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A Cost Optimization Model of IT Operation Service by Improving Service Request Management Process (서비스 요청 관리 프로세스 개선을 통한 IT 운영비용 최적화 방안)

  • Kang, Un-Sik;Bae, Kyoung-Han;Kim, Hyun-Soo
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.87-110
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    • 2007
  • Recently, researches on IT Service Management (ITSM) for improving information system operation service and information system outsourcing cost estimation model are proliferating. This study suggests a new cost model of IT operation service and optimizing method based upon the characteristics of operation service as a long-term and continuous business service for both user's and service provider's point of view. This study explains the cost optimization model of IT operation service by improving service request management process, such as adequate reception and control, proper valuation, process management using project management methodology, effective organization and time management of service personnel. Especially in this study, service ability improvement effect and fixed operation cost reduction effect are defined to prove the proposed new cost model.

A Study of the Maintenance cost model for the Life Cycle Cost Calculation of the Railroad Vehicle (철도차량 수명유지비용 계산을 위한 유지보수 비용모델 연구)

  • Kim, Jae-Hoon;Jun, Hyun-Kyu;Park, Jun-Seo
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2008.11b
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    • pp.567-573
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    • 2008
  • Life cycle costing is one of the most effective approaches for the cost analysis of long-term life products, like as railroad vehicle. Life cycle costing includes the cost of concept design, development, manufacture, operating, maintenance and disposal. Especially, life cycle costing in the railroad industry has been focused on the maintenance cost. In this paper, we investigated the standard, guide and maintenance information of railroad vehicle. For this purpose, we suggested the cost model of railroad vehicle maintenance information. We also performed maintenance cost analysis on the some sub-system of railroad vehicle for the case study.

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Association between Efficiency and Quality of Health Care in South Korea Long-term Care Hospitals: Using the Data Envelopment Analysis and Matrix Analysis (요양병원의 효율성과 의료서비스 질의 관련성: 자료포락분석과 매트릭스 분석)

  • Sohn, Minsung;Choi, Mankyu
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.418-427
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: Objectives of this study were to investigate the association between efficiency and quality of health care in Long-term Care Hospitals (LTCH) and determine related factors that would enable achievement of both high efficiency and high quality at the same time. Methods: Major data sources were the "2012 Korean Assessment of Propriety by Long-term Care Hospitals" obtained from the Health Insurance Review & Assessment Service. Cost variables were supplemented by a National Tax Service accounting document. First, data envelopment analysis was performed by generating efficiency scores for each LTCH. Second, matrix analysis was conducted to ascertain association between efficiency and quality. Lastly, kruskal-wallis and mann-whitney tests were conducted to identify related factors. Results: First, efficiency and quality of care are not in a relationship of trade-offs; thus, LTCH can be confident that high efficiency-high quality can be achieved. Second, LTCH with a large number of beds, longer tenure of medical personnel, and adequate levels of investment were more likely to have improved quality as well as efficiency. Conclusion: It is essential to enforce legal standards appropriate to the facilities, reduce turnover of nursing staff, and invest properly in human resources. These consequences will help LTCH to maintain the balance of high efficiency-high quality in the long-run.

Study on long-term Performance characteristics of various solar thermal system for heating protected horticulture system (태양열 시설원예 난방시스템의 장기성능 특성 분석 연구)

  • Lee, Sang-Nam;Kang, Yong-Heack
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2006
  • The objective of this research is to study on the analysis of long-term performance characteristics of various solar thermal system for heating protected horticulture system for reducing heating cost, increasing the value of product by environment control, and developing advanced culture technology by deploying solar thermal system. Long term field test for the demonstration was carried out in horticulture complex in Jeju Island. Reliability and economic aspect of the system which was operated complementary with thermal storage and solar hot water generation were analyzed by investigating collector efficiency, operation performance, and control features. Optimum operating condition and its characteristics were closely investigated by changing the control condition based on the temperature difference which is the most important operating parameter. However, it is expected that, in high-insolation areas where large-scale ground storage is adaptable, solar system demonstrated in the research could be economically competitive and promisingly disseminate over various application areas.