• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.127-137
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• 2019

Recidivism prediction has been a subject of constant research by experts since the early 1970s. But it has become more important as committed crimes by recidivist steadily increase. Especially, in the 1990s, after the US and Canada adopted the 'Recidivism Risk Assessment Report' as a decisive criterion during trial and parole screening, research on recidivism prediction became more active. And in the same period, empirical studies on 'Recidivism Factors' were started even at Korea. Even though most recidivism prediction studies have so far focused on factors of recidivism or the accuracy of recidivism prediction, it is important to minimize the prediction misclassification cost, because recidivism prediction has an asymmetric error cost structure. In general, the cost of misrecognizing people who do not cause recidivism to cause recidivism is lower than the cost of incorrectly classifying people who would cause recidivism. Because the former increases only the additional monitoring costs, while the latter increases the amount of social, and economic costs. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an XGBoost(eXtream Gradient Boosting; XGB) based recidivism prediction model considering asymmetric error cost. In the first step of the model, XGB, being recognized as high performance ensemble method in the field of data mining, was applied. And the results of XGB were compared with various prediction models such as LOGIT(logistic regression analysis), DT(decision trees), ANN(artificial neural networks), and SVM(support vector machines). In the next step, the threshold is optimized to minimize the total misclassification cost, which is the weighted average of FNE(False Negative Error) and FPE(False Positive Error). To verify the usefulness of the model, the model was applied to a real recidivism prediction dataset. As a result, it was confirmed that the XGB model not only showed better prediction accuracy than other prediction models but also reduced the cost of misclassification most effectively.

• Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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• v.44 no.6
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• pp.1296-1307
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• 1997

Background : Erdosteine is a thiol derivative developed for the treatement of chronic obstructive bronchitis, including acute infective exacerbation of chronic bronchitis. Erdosteine has mucomodulating and antioxidant properties and especially exhibits excellent gastrointestinal tolerability. Methods : The study was conducted as a prospective evaluation, with 2 comparative groups orally treated with erdosteine 300mg (bid.) or ambroxol 30mg (b.i.d.) for 7 days and the design of trial was double-blind. The treatments have been assigned randomly to patients (n=80) with acute or chronic bronchitis. The primary end-point used to determine efficacy in this study was subjective symptoms including expectorating frequence, expectoration volume, expectorating difficulty, expectoration viscosity, cough intensity and dyspnea. The secondary end-points of efficacy was the result of arterial blood gas analysis and pulmonary function test. Safety was evaluated with adverse drug reactions and laboratory tests monitoring. 61 patients was included in the efficacy analysis, due to the fact that 19 patients drop-out for different reasons. The obtained values have been analyzed with paired Hest., ANOVA test., multivariate $t^2$-test, repeated measures analysis of covariance, two sample t-test, loglinear-logit model analysis, Fisher's exact test. Results : 1) There was no significant difference on demographic data and vital signs between erdosteine and ambroxol treated groups. 2) The comparison between erdosteine and ambroxol treated groups showed no significant difference in improvement of each symptom in spite of the more favorable efficacy obtained with erdosteine. No difference on the contrary was observed for arterial blood gas analysis and pulmonary function test. 3) As safety is concerned, no clinical significant changes in laboratory test and symptom were induced in erdosteine and ambroxol treated group and two patients in ambroxol treated group drop-out for adverse reactions in symptom. 4) In the evaluation of final clinical efficacy, erdosteine improved more effectively patient's overall symptoms {very good effect (11/31), good effect (12/31), moderate effect (6/31), no effect (2/31), aggravation (0/31)} than ambroxol {very good effect (6/30), good effect (14/30), moderate effect (5/30), no effect (4/30), aggravation (2/30)}. And the probability of symptomatic improvement by erdosteine compared to ambroxol was 2.5 times. (p<0.05). Conclusion : This study showed that erdosteine was clinically effective and safe drug for treatment of acute and chronic bronchitis.

• Food Science and Preservation
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.418-424
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• 2010

Although the wine industry continues to grow, little empirical research on consumer preferences has been conducted. Thus, our objective was to analyze consumer views on wine attributes. A choice experiment (CE) was designed to detect a marginal willingness to pay for particular characteristics of wine (balance, flavor, color, clarity, and value-for-money). A questionnaire was administered and 286 responses were received. A multinomial logit model was estimated using the maximum likelihood method. The results indicated that balance, flavor, color, clarity, and price were all important to consumers. The CE data revealed that estimates of marginal willingness to pay were 31,899 won/bottle for balance, 23,088 won/bottle for flavor, 3,230 won/bottle for color, and 25,936 won/bottle for clarity. The balance of a wine was most important, and the flavor, clarity, and color were also significant. The results of this work will be of assistance in promoting the domestic wine industry.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.12 no.6
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• pp.54-67
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• 2013

The main purpose of this study is to analyze the diversion rate by the levels of delay and the types of display. For this study, we developed the logit model by analyzing the result of SP survey of drivers who have driver's licence after manipulating a virtual driving simulator. The result of analysis was that the types of display was not statistically significant to the diversion rate. On the other hand, the levels of delay was very meaningful factor with the diversion rate. When the main road was flowing smoothly, drivers started to detour at the levels of delay 125% under the traffic free flow state. Similarly, when the levels of delay got worse, the diversion rate kept the same percentage as it was at the levels of delay 125% state which represented a smooth road condition. Likewise, when the main road's traffic flow was slow, drivers appeared to make detours at the same state of the levels of delay 125%. It was found that as the levels of delay got worse, the diversion rose higher than the diversion rate at the condition of slow traffic flow situation with the levels of delay 125%. The result of this study suggests the criterion of drivers detour point. For the conclusion, the result of study would be a reasonable reference for establishing transportation strategies by reflecting drivers' detouring property and would improve the efficiency of traffic flow.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.13 no.9
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• pp.47-57
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• 2015

Purpose - The aim of this paper is to investigate the explanatory power of the Pecking-order theory (the cost of financing increases with asymmetric information) among Korean retail firms from the perspective of debt capacity. According to the Pecking-order theory, a firm's first preference is to use internal funds for its capital needs, its next preference is the issuance of debt, and its last preference is the issuance of equity; this is due to the information asymmetry problem between existing shareholders and investors. However, prior empirical studies, such as Lemmon and Zender (2010), argue that the entire sample test for the Pecking-order theory could be misleading due to the different levels of debt issuance capability of each of the individual firms; in fact, they confirm that the explanatory power of the Pecking-order theory improves after taking into account the differences in debt capacity of the U.S. firms they examined. This paper implements a case study approach among Korean retail firms to examine the relationship between debt capacity and the explanatory power of the Pecking-order theory in Korea. Research design, data, and methodology - This study uses the sample of public retail firms on the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) from the time period of 1990 to 2013. We gather related financial and accounting statements from the financial information firm WISEfn. Credit rating information is provided by the Korea Investor Service. We employ the models of Lemmon and Zender (2010) and Son and Kim (2013) to measure a firm's debt capacity. Their logit models use the rating dummy variable as a dependent variable and incorporate other firm characteristics as independent variables to estimate debt capacity. To test the Pecking-order theory, we adopt variants of the financing deficit model of Shyam-Sunder and Myers (1999). In the test of the Pecking-order theory, we consider all of the changes in total debt obligations, current debt obligations, and long-term debt obligations. Results - Our main contribution to the literature is our confirmation of the predicted relationship between debt capacity and the explanatory power of the Pecking-order theory among Korean retail firms. The coefficients on financing deficits become greater as a firm's debt capacity improves. This is consistent with the results of Lemmon and Zender (2010). The coefficients on the square of the financing deficits are also negative for the firms in the largest debt capacity group, which is also consistent with the predictions in prior literature. Conclusions - This study takes a case study approach by examining Korean retail firms. We confirm that the Pecking-order theory explains the capital structure of retail firms more appropriately, after taking into account the debt capacity of each firm. This result suggests the importance of debt capacity consideration in the testing of the Pecking-order theory. Our result also implies that there has been a potential underestimation of the explanatory power of the Pecking-order theory in existing studies.

• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.31-47
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• 2017

The purpose of this study is to identify determinants of economic aid regarding housing and cost of living for the newly-married households. This study applied the binary logit model to figure out the determinants of economic aid from their parents for the households. With utilizing the Newly-Married Housing Survey data in 2015, this study found that housing characteristics and level of housing expenditure leads to the economic aid from their parents. In particular, the housing price and transportation condition increase probability the financial aid from parents when the newly-married household starts their housing career. In addition, this study found that the items of housing expenditure increase the probability of economic aid for their cost of living. To improve the independence of newly-married household, the government should adopt the housing policy for stable housing price and alleviate the burden of housing expenditure. The significance of this study is analyzing the economic aid from their parents on newly-married household regarding housing economic issues and suggest the policy for independence of living from their parents.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.41 no.1
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• pp.39-81
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• 2018

This study focuses on whether non-standard workers are matched by voluntary contract with employers in the labor market and analyzes the factors of involuntary choice of non-standard employees that are diverse by firm size. For the analysis I consider non-standard employees as either voluntary or involuntary according to the push/pull theory based on labor mobility. The Economic Activity Census Added Survey data 2016 show that the proportion of involuntary non-standard employees is greater than voluntary ones as the firm size is smaller. As a result of the analysis, involuntary non-standard employees are not significantly discriminated from voluntary non-standard employees in large firms. However, in small and medium-sized firms and micro small-sized firms, workers are more likely to be involuntarily non-standard if they are older or less educated. In addition, they are more likely to be employed involuntarily in micro small-sized firms than in small and medium-sized firms. Therefore, we should take into account the mismatching problems of compensation, specialty, and career in order to establish policies on non-standard workers. In addition to the financial support for small and medium-sized and micro small-sized firms, it is necessary to provide workers with job information that matches their job skills and career experiences.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.10 no.12
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• pp.3768-3774
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• 2009

This paper explored how soft information and hard information were used when SBC(Small Business Corporation, Korea) reviewed government loan applications. The data set is made up of financial and non-financial data of small-business firms since 2004. A non-financial data set is considered as soft information. Relative importance of three kinds information such as credit information, soft information, financial information is compared with each other by using the logit model. As a result, credit information is most critical to the loan approval, and then soft information follows, lastly financial information has the smallest effect on the loan approval. This is because the credit information is made up of the non-linear combination of soft information and financial information. When the relative importance of soft information and financial information is considered, soft information is relatively more critical to the loan approval then financial information. This is because financial ratios provided by small-business firms are not reliable enough.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.22 no.2 s.73
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• pp.27-39
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• 2004

The purpose of this paper presents realistic policy alternative about recent tendency to decrease of subway-users and diminution of use efficiency which are serious problems of Busan Subway. Several policy alternatives have been studied until now, such as subway transfer impedance solution plan, introduction of subway to transfer fare discounting policy, and etc.. But, those policy alternatives are difficult to carried out, because they are less effective and overburden to financial aspect. Therefore, I made use of research on subway utilization to presuppose service improvement, as an alternative, in the transfer fare discounting system between bus and subway which might be powerful influence over subway-users. To verify this proposed study, I took advantage of Stated Preference(SP) where I estimated fare revenue and effects on fluctuation of subway-users with nested logit model based on research results. Suitable alternatives are as follows: First, If municipal government carries out transfer fare discounting policy without shortening in-vehicle time and out-of-vehicle time transfer fare, it is reasonable to discount transfer fare 50% off on the assumption of financial support as much as \6.700 million annually. Secondly, in case of application of multi-factors at a time, transfer fare discounting and in & out vehicle time, it is preferred to have no charge for transfer option with financial support as much as expected income-loss \5,600 million.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.595-625
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• 2012

Recently environment-friendly pellet boilers have interests as emissions of greenhouse gases are regulated internationally and energy security becomes more important to oil addicted countries including Republic of Korea. But the Korean market for pellet boilers is on the initial stage due to the high production costs relative to other conventional boilers. Hence the Korean government has supported financially and promoted the pellet boiler business. In this sense, it would contribute market stratergy and effective promotion policy for both of the government and private companies if we can forecast market shares of pellet boilers appropriately. For this purpose, this study surveyed potential consumers' preferences on pellet boilers among various alternatives using a choice experiment reflecting intangible costs. As the market share of new technology increases, intangible costs decline. According to different intangible cost scenarios, we experimented people's preferences on oil, gas, electric, and pellet boilers. A multinomial logit model was employed to estimate coefficient parameters of common attributes for various alternative boilers. Based on the estimates, we forecasted market shares of individual boilers. We found that as intangible costs decline, the market share of pellet boiler increase substantically while market shares of electric and gas boilers decrease dramatically. The market share of oil boiler did not change significantly. Meanwhile, as people are more rich, more educated, and exposed to advertisement on pellet boilers, the likelihood of choosing the pellet boiler increases.