• 제목/요약/키워드: logit모형

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Freight Mode Choice Modelling with Aggregate RP Data and Disaggregate SP Data (집계적 현시선호자료와 비집계적 진술선호자료를 이용한 화물수단선택모형 구축)

  • Kang, Woong;Lee, Jang-Ho;Park, Minchoul
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.265-274
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    • 2017
  • For accurate demand forecasting of railway logistics, we estimated intercity freight mode choice models based on the binary logit model and using production-consumption data from the Korea Transport Database. We estimated two types of models and compared the results by major item of railway logistics, such as container, cement, and steel: 1) The aggregate freight mode choice models are based on the revealed preference (RP) data and 2) The disaggregate models are based on the stated preference (SP) data. With respect to the container, the travel time variable was found to be statistically significant; however, the travel cost variable was not statistically significant in the RP model, while the travel cost variable was statistically significant in the SP model. For cement and steel, the travel cost variables were statistically significant but the travel time variables were not statistically significant in either the RP or the SP models. These results are inconsistent with results from previous studies based on SP data, which showed that the travel time variables were significant. Consequently, it can be concluded that the travel time factor should be considered in container transport, but that this factor is negligible for cement and steel transport.

Hurdle Model for Longitudinal Zero-Inflated Count Data Analysis (영과잉 경시적 가산자료 분석을 위한 허들모형)

  • Jin, Iktae;Lee, Keunbaik
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.923-932
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    • 2014
  • The Hurdle model can to analyze zero-inflated count data. This model is a mixed model of the logit model for a binary component and a truncated Poisson model of a truncated count component. We propose a new hurdle model with a general heterogeneous random effects covariance matrix to analyze longitudinal zero-inflated count data using modified Cholesky decomposition. This decomposition factors the random effects covariance matrix into generalized autoregressive parameters and innovation variance. The parameters are modeled using (generalized) linear models and estimated with a Bayesian method. We use these methods to carefully analyze a real dataset.

An Integrated Model based on Genetic Algorithms for Implementing Cost-Effective Intelligent Intrusion Detection Systems (비용효율적 지능형 침입탐지시스템 구현을 위한 유전자 알고리즘 기반 통합 모형)

  • Lee, Hyeon-Uk;Kim, Ji-Hun;Ahn, Hyun-Chul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.125-141
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    • 2012
  • These days, the malicious attacks and hacks on the networked systems are dramatically increasing, and the patterns of them are changing rapidly. Consequently, it becomes more important to appropriately handle these malicious attacks and hacks, and there exist sufficient interests and demand in effective network security systems just like intrusion detection systems. Intrusion detection systems are the network security systems for detecting, identifying and responding to unauthorized or abnormal activities appropriately. Conventional intrusion detection systems have generally been designed using the experts' implicit knowledge on the network intrusions or the hackers' abnormal behaviors. However, they cannot handle new or unknown patterns of the network attacks, although they perform very well under the normal situation. As a result, recent studies on intrusion detection systems use artificial intelligence techniques, which can proactively respond to the unknown threats. For a long time, researchers have adopted and tested various kinds of artificial intelligence techniques such as artificial neural networks, decision trees, and support vector machines to detect intrusions on the network. However, most of them have just applied these techniques singularly, even though combining the techniques may lead to better detection. With this reason, we propose a new integrated model for intrusion detection. Our model is designed to combine prediction results of four different binary classification models-logistic regression (LOGIT), decision trees (DT), artificial neural networks (ANN), and support vector machines (SVM), which may be complementary to each other. As a tool for finding optimal combining weights, genetic algorithms (GA) are used. Our proposed model is designed to be built in two steps. At the first step, the optimal integration model whose prediction error (i.e. erroneous classification rate) is the least is generated. After that, in the second step, it explores the optimal classification threshold for determining intrusions, which minimizes the total misclassification cost. To calculate the total misclassification cost of intrusion detection system, we need to understand its asymmetric error cost scheme. Generally, there are two common forms of errors in intrusion detection. The first error type is the False-Positive Error (FPE). In the case of FPE, the wrong judgment on it may result in the unnecessary fixation. The second error type is the False-Negative Error (FNE) that mainly misjudges the malware of the program as normal. Compared to FPE, FNE is more fatal. Thus, total misclassification cost is more affected by FNE rather than FPE. To validate the practical applicability of our model, we applied it to the real-world dataset for network intrusion detection. The experimental dataset was collected from the IDS sensor of an official institution in Korea from January to June 2010. We collected 15,000 log data in total, and selected 10,000 samples from them by using random sampling method. Also, we compared the results from our model with the results from single techniques to confirm the superiority of the proposed model. LOGIT and DT was experimented using PASW Statistics v18.0, and ANN was experimented using Neuroshell R4.0. For SVM, LIBSVM v2.90-a freeware for training SVM classifier-was used. Empirical results showed that our proposed model based on GA outperformed all the other comparative models in detecting network intrusions from the accuracy perspective. They also showed that the proposed model outperformed all the other comparative models in the total misclassification cost perspective. Consequently, it is expected that our study may contribute to build cost-effective intelligent intrusion detection systems.

The Selection Methodology of Road Network Data for Generalization of Digital Topographic Map (수치지형도 일반화를 위한 도로 네트워크 데이터의 선택 기법 연구)

  • Park, Woo Jin;Lee, Young Min;Yu, Ki Yun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.229-238
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    • 2013
  • Development of methodologies to generate the small scale map from the large scale map using map generalization has huge importance in management of the digital topographic map, such as producing and updating maps. In this study, the selection methodology of map generalization for the road network data in digital topographic map is investigated and evaluated. The existing maps with 1:5,000 and 1:25,000 scales are compared and the criteria for selection of the road network data, which are the number of objects and the relative importance of road network, are analyzed by using the T$\ddot{o}$pfer's radical law and Logit model. The selection model derived from the analysis result is applied to the test data, and the road network data of 1:18,000 and 1:72,000 scales from the digital topographic map of 1:5,000 scale are generated. The generalized results showed that the road objects with relatively high importance are selected appropriately according to the target scale levels after the qualitative and quantitative evaluations.

Revisit Intention of Visitors to Cultural Festival using Logit Model (로짓모형을 이용한 축제참가자의 재방문 의사 분석)

  • Heo, Chung-Uk
    • Korean Business Review
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.139-156
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    • 2009
  • This article investigates the relationships between motivation and revisit intention of visitors to Gangneung Danoje Festival as cultural festival with social demand. Out of 550 questionnaires distributed, a total of 514 usable questionnaires were collected. The hypothesized causal model was tested by logit model, which included satisfaction model to each program as well as overall satisfaction model to cultural festival. Model 1 is constructed with satisfaction and revisit intention to each program, and Model 2 with overall satisfaction and revisit intention to cultural festival. In this models causal variables were inputted including satisfaction to festival programs, frequency of visitation, days of stay, time required to destination. In Model 1 positive sign were shown by causal variables as satisfaction to each program, frequency of visitation, days of stay but negative signs was shown by time required to festival place. In Model 2 sign directions of causal variables were same in Model 1. In comparison, Model 2 is more significant than Model 1 on the basis of statistical theory as significance level and coefficient of determination. Consequently, cultural festival managers should test the satisfaction level of visitors to each program of cultural festival and make efforts to establish advanced program in order to attract more visitors.

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A Study of Mode Choice Analysis of Blind Spot Areas for Public Transportation in Four Metropolitan Cities (대도시권 대중교통 사각지대 통행자들의 수단선택 모형 개발 - 급행버스 노선 도입에 따른 선호의식 조사를 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Hwang Bae
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.32 no.6D
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    • pp.565-569
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    • 2012
  • This study selected blind spot areas for public transportation in four metropolitan cities including Busan, Daegue, Gwangju, and Daejeon. Then this study developed a nested logit model and analyzed the changes of mode choice behaviors after adopting rapid transit system using stated preference(SP) survey. As the study results, blind spot areas have more potential public transportation demand and tendency to shift to public transportation from autos than built-up areas. This study results can be utilized to evaluate demand changes for new rapid transit system in a circular expressway and an arterial highway connecting CBD and surrounding areas. The study results also can be utilized to analyze the potential public transportation demand in the surrounding areas.

The Analysis of Factors affecting Expressway Accident Involving Human Injuries using Logit Model (로짓모형을 활용한 고속도로 인적피해에 영향을 주는 요인분석)

  • Seo, Im-Ki;Lee, Ki-Young;Lee, Seong-Kwan;Park, Je-Jin
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.102-111
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    • 2012
  • Expresway traffic accident is fatal accident by high speed, especially human injury is a great social issue. This paper aims to identify characteristic differences of highway accidents that involve human injuries or not. To analysis the elements that affect the two types of accidents used the logistic regression model. The analysis showed that human injury accident rate is increased in case of straight road, flat, or cut-slope areas, barriers, male driver, and older driver. These results provide the ground for actions to counter the problems. By discovering factors for accidents leading to fatality, this study can provide important implications for authorities that establish highway safety measures and policies in preventing human injuries or deaths from car accidents.

Parameter estimation of linear function using VUS and HUM maximization (VUS와 HUM 최적화를 이용한 선형함수의 모수추정)

  • Hong, Chong Sun;Won, Chi Hwan;Jeong, Dong Gil
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.1305-1315
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    • 2015
  • Consider the risk score which is a function of a linear score for the classification models. The AUC optimization method can be applied to estimate the coefficients of linear score. These estimates obtained by this AUC approach method are shown to be better than the maximum likelihood estimators using logistic models under the general situation which does not fit the logistic assumptions. In this work, the VUS and HUM approach methods are suggested by extending AUC approach method for more realistic discrimination and prediction worlds. Some simulation results are obtained with both various distributions of thresholds and three kinds of link functions such as logit, complementary log-log and modified logit functions. It is found that coefficient prediction results by using the VUS and HUM approach methods for multiple categorical classification are equivalent to or better than those by using logistic models with some link functions.

Logistics Peculiarities for the Firms in the Daegu-Gyeongbuk Area (대구.경북지역 기업의 물류특성 분석)

  • Ha, Yeong-Seok;Seo, Jung-Soo
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.241-260
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    • 2011
  • This paper qualitatively describes logistics behaviors of 113 companies located in Daegu-Gyeongbuk by considering various characteristics such as business location, trade volume, cargo types and the possession of company's own warehouse. A logit model is developed to investigate how predictor variables affect these companies' inclination of utilizing Third Party Logistics Provider(3PL). The estimation results of 102 effective data points show that among the four predictors the location of company's HQs (HQADD) and trade volume (TRDTEU) significantly increase company's tendency towards utilizing 3PL while the remaining two variables (BULK, WAREHS) imparting statistically insignificant influence. The results indicate that those companies located outside the region tend to implement a strategy of using more 3PL and also that the larger the trade volume of the company the more 3PL the company uses to improve the efficiency in logistics.

A Study on the Stochastic Demand Forecast for the Capacity Calculation of Urban Planning Facilities (도시계획시설 용량 산정을 위한 확률적 수요 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Jae Young Kang;Jong Jin Kim
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.135-146
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    • 2024
  • This study predicts the means sharing ratio of the urban air transportation (UAM) when the VertiHub of the UAM in the southern western part is built at Songjeong Station in Gwanju. Based on Monte Carlo simulation of the utility function and means selection logit model for each means of transportation, our findings indicate an average mode share of 0.95%, with a variability range from 0.07% to 4.7%. Moreover, 95% of the simulation outcomes fall below a 2.02% mode share. Sensitivity analysis, conducted via Tornado Plot, highlights that the mode share is principally influenced by factors such as the unit fare, cost parameter, basic fare, and the time required for takeoff and landing. Notably, a negative correlation exists for unit fare, basic fare, and takeoff and landing time, suggesting the necessity of setting an appropriate level of fair to enhance UAM utilization.