• Title/Summary/Keyword: logistic model

Search Result 1,937, Processing Time 0.033 seconds

Evaluation on the Effects of Deicing Salts on Crop using Seedling Emergence Assay of Oilseed Rape (Brassica napus) (유채의 출아 검정을 통한 제설제의 작물 영향 평가)

  • Lim, Soo-Hyun;Yu, Hyejin;Lee, Chan-Young;Gong, Yu-Seok;Lee, Byung-Duk;Kim, Do-Soon
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
    • /
    • v.66 no.1
    • /
    • pp.72-79
    • /
    • 2021
  • The increasing use of deicing salts has caused various environmental problems, including crop damage along the motorway where deicing salts are sprayed during winter. Deicing salts used on roads have been reported to negatively affect crops, but little information is known about their impact on crops. A seedling emergence assay was conducted to evaluate the effects of deicing salts on crops using oilseed rape (Brassica napus) as a model plant. We tested five chloride deicing salts consisting of NaCl, CaCl2, or MgCl2 and 1 non-chloride deicing salt (SM-3) at a range of concentrations (25, 50, 100, 200, and 400 mM), and untreated control. Regardless of deicing salts, they significantly delayed and reduced seedling emergence of oilseed rape with increasing salt concentration. Non-linear regression analysis of seedling emergence with a range of salt concentrations by fitting to the log-logistic model revealed that the chloride deicing salts reduced seedling emergence more than the non-chloride deicing salt SM-3. The GR50 value, the concentration causing 50% seedling emergence, of SM-3 was 47.1 mM, while those of the chloride deicing salts ranged from 30.7 mM (PC-10) to 37.5 mM (ES-1), showing approximately 10 mM difference between non-chloride and chloride deicing salts. Our findings suggest that seedling emergence assay is a useful tool to estimate the potential damage caused by deicing salts on crops.

A Study on Foreign Exchange Rate Prediction Based on KTB, IRS and CCS Rates: Empirical Evidence from the Use of Artificial Intelligence (국고채, 금리 스왑 그리고 통화 스왑 가격에 기반한 외환시장 환율예측 연구: 인공지능 활용의 실증적 증거)

  • Lim, Hyun Wook;Jeong, Seung Hwan;Lee, Hee Soo;Oh, Kyong Joo
    • Knowledge Management Research
    • /
    • v.22 no.4
    • /
    • pp.71-85
    • /
    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to find out which artificial intelligence methodology is most suitable for creating a foreign exchange rate prediction model using the indicators of bond market and interest rate market. KTBs and MSBs, which are representative products of the Korea bond market, are sold on a large scale when a risk aversion occurs, and in such cases, the USD/KRW exchange rate often rises. When USD liquidity problems occur in the onshore Korean market, the KRW Cross-Currency Swap price in the interest rate market falls, then it plays as a signal to buy USD/KRW in the foreign exchange market. Considering that the price and movement of products traded in the bond market and interest rate market directly or indirectly affect the foreign exchange market, it may be regarded that there is a close and complementary relationship among the three markets. There have been studies that reveal the relationship and correlation between the bond market, interest rate market, and foreign exchange market, but many exchange rate prediction studies in the past have mainly focused on studies based on macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, current account surplus/deficit, and inflation while active research to predict the exchange rate of the foreign exchange market using artificial intelligence based on the bond market and interest rate market indicators has not been conducted yet. This study uses the bond market and interest rate market indicator, runs artificial neural network suitable for nonlinear data analysis, logistic regression suitable for linear data analysis, and decision tree suitable for nonlinear & linear data analysis, and proves that the artificial neural network is the most suitable methodology for predicting the foreign exchange rates which are nonlinear and times series data. Beyond revealing the simple correlation between the bond market, interest rate market, and foreign exchange market, capturing the trading signals between the three markets to reveal the active correlation and prove the mutual organic movement is not only to provide foreign exchange market traders with a new trading model but also to be expected to contribute to increasing the efficiency and the knowledge management of the entire financial market.

Association between Sleep Duration, Dental Caries, and Periodontitis in Korean Adults: The Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2013~2014 (한국 성인에서 수면시간과 영구치 우식증 및 치주질환과의 관련성: 2013~2014 국민건강영양조사)

  • Lee, Da-Hyun;Lee, Young-Hoon
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
    • /
    • v.17 no.1
    • /
    • pp.38-45
    • /
    • 2017
  • We evaluated the association between sleep duration, dental caries, and periodontitis by using representative nationwide data. We examined 8,356 subjects aged ${\geq}19$ years who participated in the sixth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2013~2014). Sleep duration were grouped into ${\leq}5$, 6, 7, 8, and ${\geq}9$ hours. Presence of dental caries was defined as caries in ${\geq}1$ permanent tooth on dental examination. Periodontal status was assessed by using the community periodontal index (CPI), and a CPI code of ${\geq}3$ was defined as periodontitis. A chi-square test and multiple logistic regression analysis were used to determine statistical significance. Model 1 was adjusted for age and sex, model 2 for household income, educational level, and marital status plus model 1, and model 3 for smoking status, alcohol consumption, blood pressure level, fasting blood glucose level, total cholesterol level, and body mass index plus model 2. The prevalence of dental caries according to sleep duration showed a U-shaped curve of 33.4%, 29.4%, 28.4%, 29.4%, and 31.8% with ${\leq}5$, 6, 7, 8, and ${\geq}9$ hours of sleep, respectively. In the fully adjusted model 3, the risk of developing dental caries was significantly higher with ${\leq}5$ than with 7 hours of sleep (odds ratio, 1.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.06~1.43). The prevalence of periodontitis according to sleep duration showed a U-shaped curve of 34.4%, 28.6%, 28.1%, 31.3%, and 32.5%, respectively. The risk of periodontitis was significantly higher with ${\geq}9$ than with 7 hours of sleep in models 1 and 2, whereas the significant association disappeared in model 3. In a nationally representative sample, sleep duration was significantly associated with dental caries formation and weakly associated with periodontitis. Adequate sleep is required to prevent oral diseases such as dental caries and periodontitis.

Animal Infectious Diseases Prevention through Big Data and Deep Learning (빅데이터와 딥러닝을 활용한 동물 감염병 확산 차단)

  • Kim, Sung Hyun;Choi, Joon Ki;Kim, Jae Seok;Jang, Ah Reum;Lee, Jae Ho;Cha, Kyung Jin;Lee, Sang Won
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.24 no.4
    • /
    • pp.137-154
    • /
    • 2018
  • Animal infectious diseases, such as avian influenza and foot and mouth disease, occur almost every year and cause huge economic and social damage to the country. In order to prevent this, the anti-quarantine authorities have tried various human and material endeavors, but the infectious diseases have continued to occur. Avian influenza is known to be developed in 1878 and it rose as a national issue due to its high lethality. Food and mouth disease is considered as most critical animal infectious disease internationally. In a nation where this disease has not been spread, food and mouth disease is recognized as economic disease or political disease because it restricts international trade by making it complex to import processed and non-processed live stock, and also quarantine is costly. In a society where whole nation is connected by zone of life, there is no way to prevent the spread of infectious disease fully. Hence, there is a need to be aware of occurrence of the disease and to take action before it is distributed. Epidemiological investigation on definite diagnosis target is implemented and measures are taken to prevent the spread of disease according to the investigation results, simultaneously with the confirmation of both human infectious disease and animal infectious disease. The foundation of epidemiological investigation is figuring out to where one has been, and whom he or she has met. In a data perspective, this can be defined as an action taken to predict the cause of disease outbreak, outbreak location, and future infection, by collecting and analyzing geographic data and relation data. Recently, an attempt has been made to develop a prediction model of infectious disease by using Big Data and deep learning technology, but there is no active research on model building studies and case reports. KT and the Ministry of Science and ICT have been carrying out big data projects since 2014 as part of national R &D projects to analyze and predict the route of livestock related vehicles. To prevent animal infectious diseases, the researchers first developed a prediction model based on a regression analysis using vehicle movement data. After that, more accurate prediction model was constructed using machine learning algorithms such as Logistic Regression, Lasso, Support Vector Machine and Random Forest. In particular, the prediction model for 2017 added the risk of diffusion to the facilities, and the performance of the model was improved by considering the hyper-parameters of the modeling in various ways. Confusion Matrix and ROC Curve show that the model constructed in 2017 is superior to the machine learning model. The difference between the2016 model and the 2017 model is that visiting information on facilities such as feed factory and slaughter house, and information on bird livestock, which was limited to chicken and duck but now expanded to goose and quail, has been used for analysis in the later model. In addition, an explanation of the results was added to help the authorities in making decisions and to establish a basis for persuading stakeholders in 2017. This study reports an animal infectious disease prevention system which is constructed on the basis of hazardous vehicle movement, farm and environment Big Data. The significance of this study is that it describes the evolution process of the prediction model using Big Data which is used in the field and the model is expected to be more complete if the form of viruses is put into consideration. This will contribute to data utilization and analysis model development in related field. In addition, we expect that the system constructed in this study will provide more preventive and effective prevention.

Forecasting of Car Distribution Considering the Population Aging (인구 고령화를 고려한 승용차 보급예측 연구)

  • Kim, Hyunwoo;Lee, Du-Heon;Yang, Junseok
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
    • /
    • v.15 no.5
    • /
    • pp.31-39
    • /
    • 2014
  • It has been a long time since cars had become important means of transportation in human life. Since 1970s, cars have been increasing steadily because of rising individual income and changing lifestyle toward leisure and convenience. The number of cars is just 1.8 per thousand populations in 1970s, however, in 2012, it has increased to 291.15. Forecasting the demand for cars would be useful to plan, construction or management in the field of motor industry, road building and establishing facilities. Our study predicts the demand of cars through estimating the growth curve model. Especially, we include ageing variables to forecasting identifying the effect of ageing on the demand of cars. The main findings are as follows. In 2045, the number of cars is expected to reach 486.8 per thousand populations with passing a primary saturation point at early 2020s. Also, due to effect of ageing, the predicted demand of cars is about 10% lower than in case of which if ageing effect not exist.

Influence of the CYP1A1 T3801C Polymorphism on Tobacco and Alcohol-Associated Head and Neck Cancer Susceptibility in Northeast India

  • Singh, Seram Anil;Choudhury, Javed Hussain;Kapfo, Wetetsho;Kundu, Sharbadeb;Dhar, Bishal;Laskar, Shaheen;Das, Raima;Kumar, Manish;Ghosh, Sankar Kumar
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • v.16 no.16
    • /
    • pp.6953-6961
    • /
    • 2015
  • Background: Tobacco and alcohol contain or may generate carcinogenic compounds related to cancers. CYP1A1 enzymes act upon these carcinogens before elimination from the body. The aim of this study was to investigate whether CYP1A1 T3801C polymorphism modulates the relationship between tobacco and alcohol-associated head and neck cancer (HNC) susceptibility among the northeast Indian population. Materials and Methods: One hundred and seventy histologically confirmed HNC cases and 230 controls were included within the study. The CYP1A1 T3801C polymorphism was determined using PCR-RFLP, and the results were confirmed by DNA sequencing. Logistic regression (LR) and multifactor dimensionality reduction (MDR) approaches were applied for statistical analysis. Results: The CYP1A1 CC genotype was significantly associated with HNC risk (P=0.045). A significantly increased risk of HNC (OR=6.09; P<0.0001) was observed in individuals with combined habits of smoking, alcohol drinking and tobacco-betel quid chewing. Further, gene-environment interactions revealed enhanced risks of HNC among smokers, alcohol drinkers and tobacco-betel quid chewers carrying CYP1A1 TC or CC genotypes. The highest risk of HNC was observed among smokers (OR=7.55; P=0.009) and chewers (OR=10.8; P<0.0001) carrying the CYP1A1 CC genotype. In MDR analysis, the best model for HNC risk was the three-factor model combination of smoking, tobacco-betel quid chewing and the CYP1A1 variant genotype (CVC=99/100; TBA=0.605; P<0.0001); whereas interaction entropy graphs showed synergistic interaction between tobacco habits and CYP1A1. Conclusions: Our results confirm that the CYP1A1 T3801C polymorphism modifies the risk of HNC and further demonstrated importance of gene-environment interaction.

The Analysis of the Road Freight Transportation using the Simultaneous Demand-Supply Model (수요-공급의 동시모형을 통한 공로 화물운송특성분석)

  • 장수은;이용택;지준호
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.19 no.4
    • /
    • pp.7-18
    • /
    • 2001
  • This study represents a first attempt in Korea to develop the simultaneous freight supply-demand model which considers the relationship between freight supply and demand. As the existing study was limited in one area, or the supply and the demand was separated and assumed not to affect each other, this study take it into consideration the fact that the demand affects supply and simultaneously vice versa. This approach allows us to diagnose a policy carried on and helps us to make a resonable alternative for the effectiveness of freight transportation system. To find a relationship between them, we use a method of econometrics. a structural equation theory and two stage least-squares(2SLS) estimation technique, to get rid of bias which involves two successive applications of OLS. Based on the domestic freight data, this study consider as explanatory variables a number of population(P), industry(IN), the amount of production of the mining and manufacturing industries(MMI), the rate of the effectiveness of freight capacity(LE) and the distance of an empty carriage operation(VC). This study describes well the simultaneous process of freight supply-demand system in that the increase of VC from the decrease of VC raises the cargo capacity and cargo capacity also augments VC. By the way. it is analyzed that the increment of VC due to the increase of the cargo capacity is larger than the reduction of VC owing to the increase of the quantify of goods. Therefore an alternative policy is needed in a short and long run point of view. That is to say, to promote the effectiveness of the freight transportation system, a short term supply control and a long run logistic infrastructure are urgent based on the restoration of market economy by successive deregulation. So we are able to conclude that gradual deregulation is more desirable to build effective freight market.

  • PDF

Spatial Demand Estimation for the Knowledge-Based Industries in the Capital Region of Korea (지식기반산업의 입지수요추정)

  • Kab Sung Kim;Sung Jae Choo;Kee Bom Nahm
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
    • /
    • v.38 no.3
    • /
    • pp.363-374
    • /
    • 2003
  • There is very high preference for the firms to locate in the Capital region, the City of Seoul and its surrounding areas, which inevitably meets diverse types of regulations to prevent over-concentration in Korea. In order to suggest an urgent need to reform these regulations, the demand for knowledge-based industries is estimated. A legit model is employed to estimate the demand of relocation of the current firms based on a survey conducted in 2001. A logistic curve is used to forecast the demand of new start-ups in Korea. The lands for industrial use only are estimated as many as 2.1 million~3.9 million pyung(1 pyung=3.3$m^2$) in nation-wide. Considering affiliate facilities and infrastructures, 3.1 million~5.9 million of industrial area should be developed in Korea for next five years. Since the rents are very high and the available land is short in the southern parts of Seoul, where most knowledge-based firms locate right now. Many firms have considered relocating on any other places where there exist a plenty of lands available and cheaper rents and cheaper wage rates, but still not far away from Seoul so that they could obtain new advanced information, skilled labors, venture capitals, and high quality of producer services. The Capital region, especially Gyeonggi and Incheon, is the only place to meet those conditions in Korea.

The association of heavy metals in blood, fish consumption frequency, and risk of cardiovascular diseases among Korean adults: The Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2008-2010) (국민건강영양조사를 이용한 성인의 혈중 중금속 농도와 생선 섭취 및 심혈관 질환과의 관련성-국민건강영양조사 (2008~2010년))

  • Shin, Ji-Ye;Kim, Ji-Myung;Kim, Yu-Ri
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
    • /
    • v.45 no.4
    • /
    • pp.347-361
    • /
    • 2012
  • Limited studies are available concerning the effect of heavy metal exposure on cardiovascular diseases. As environmental pollution increases, food contamination, including heavy metal contamination of fish, also increases. However, researches based on the intake of heavy metals, cardiovascular disease, and fish intakes are inconclusive. We assessed an association of heavy metal exposure with cardiovascular disease and fish intake in a nationally representative group of general Korean adults. We used data from the combined 2008-2010 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES), and analyzed the data of 5,139 Koreans who participated in KNHANES. All participants were older than 20 years, and were diagnosed with stroke, ischemic heart disease, or hypertension. The mean blood cadmium, lead concentration, and mercury concentration of subjects were $1.07{\pm}0.01{\mu}g/L$, $2.49{\pm}0.02{\mu}g/dL$, and $5.19{\pm}0.08{\mu}g/L$, respectively. We used the survey logistic regression model to account for the complex sample design of the cardiovascular disease risk in order to estimate the odds ratios (OR). After adjusting for age, education, income, alcohol, smoking, and BMI, the increase of serum cadmium in blood was associated with the increase in the prevalence of hypertension. Further, the increase in blood cadmium concentration was associated with the increase of both systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP). Although higher fish intakes were significantly associated with higher blood mercury concentration (p for trend < 0.0001), fish intakes did not affect either blood cadmium or lead concentration. Comparing the highest fish intake group with the lowest intake group, the OR of hypertension was 0.31 (95% CI: 0.19-0.59) in the crude model for total fish. However, these associations were no longer significant after the adjustment for potential confounding factors. In conclusion, cadmium in blood was associated with an increased risk of hypertension in the general Korean adult population. However, we found no evidence of a clear relationship between cardiovascular disease and frequency of fish consumption.

Major Factors Influencing the Usage Needs for the Adult Guardianship System in Parents of People with Developmental Disabilities (발달장애인 부모의 성년후견제도 이용욕구에 영향을 미치는 요인)

  • Lee, Yong-Pyo;Song, Seung-Yeon
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
    • /
    • v.16 no.6
    • /
    • pp.334-344
    • /
    • 2016
  • The purpose of this research is to investigate usage related predictors to activate Adult Guardianship System of People with Developmental Disabilities. To achieve the purpose of this research, we have analyzed the survey of parents of People with Developmental Disabilities usage needs for Adult Guardianship System which is based on the Andersen's behavioral model. The study utilized data from 2011 Welfare Needs Assessment of Seoul middle and senior-aged Family with Developmental Disabilities, and the analysis method, the study applied used SPSS 22.0, frequency analysis, descriptive statistics analysis, logistic regression analysis. According to the result, the usage needs for Adult Guardianship System increases meaningfully if the parents does not have occupation, and the subject of Adult Guardianship System is male. In income and the social security system wise, the usage needs for Adult Guardianship System show remarkably large rating if the average income is high and the desire to be cared by others is high. But in case of People with Developmental Disabilities, communication skills, the degree of disability, burden of caring does not have effect on the usage needs for Adult Guardianship System. The conclusion for this research is, first, to activate vigorous usage of Adult Guardianship System, the government intervention is required. Second, the following study is needed to explain to the concept of the needs caring by others and the cultural factors relating to the usage needs for Adult Guardianship System.