• Title/Summary/Keyword: log-logistic model

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Who are the Breast Cancer Survivors in Malaysia?

  • Ibrahim, Nor Idawaty;Dahlui, M.;Aina, E.N.;Al-Sadat, N.
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.2213-2218
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    • 2012
  • Introduction: Worldwide, breast cancer is the commonest cause of cancer death in women. However, the survival rate varies across regions at averages of 73%and 57% in the developed and developing countries, respectively. Objective: This study aimed to determine the survival rate of breast cancer among the women of Malaysia and characteristics of the survivors. Method: A retrospective cohort study was conducted on secondary data obtained from the Breast Cancer Registry and medical records of breast cancer patients admitted to Hospital Kuala Lumpur from 2005 to 2009. Survival data were validated with National Birth and Death Registry. Statistical analysis applied logistic regression, the Cox proportional hazard model, the Kaplan-Meier method and log rank test. Results: A total of 868 women were diagnosed with breast cancer between January 2005 and December 2009, comprising 58%, 25% and 17% Malays, Chinese and Indians, respectively. The overall survival rate was 43.5% (CI 0.573-0.597), with Chinese, Indians and Malays having 5 year survival rates of 48.2% (CI 0.444-0.520), 47.2% (CI 0.432-0.512) and 39.7% (CI 0.373-0.421), respectively (p<0.05). The survival rate was lower as the stages increased, with the late stages were mostly seen among the Malays (46%), followed by Chinese (36%) and Indians (34%). Size of tumor>3.0cm; lymph node involvement, ERPR, and HER 2 status, delayed presentation and involvement of both breasts were among other factors that were associated with poor survival. Conclusions: The overall survival rate of Malaysian women with breast cancer was lower than the western figures with Malays having the lowest because they presented at late stage, after a long duration of symptoms, had larger tumor size, and had more lymph nodes affected. There is an urgent need to conduct studies on why there is delay in diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer women in Malaysia.

Evaluation on the Effects of Deicing Salts on Crop using Seedling Emergence Assay of Oilseed Rape (Brassica napus) (유채의 출아 검정을 통한 제설제의 작물 영향 평가)

  • Lim, Soo-Hyun;Yu, Hyejin;Lee, Chan-Young;Gong, Yu-Seok;Lee, Byung-Duk;Kim, Do-Soon
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.66 no.1
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    • pp.72-79
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    • 2021
  • The increasing use of deicing salts has caused various environmental problems, including crop damage along the motorway where deicing salts are sprayed during winter. Deicing salts used on roads have been reported to negatively affect crops, but little information is known about their impact on crops. A seedling emergence assay was conducted to evaluate the effects of deicing salts on crops using oilseed rape (Brassica napus) as a model plant. We tested five chloride deicing salts consisting of NaCl, CaCl2, or MgCl2 and 1 non-chloride deicing salt (SM-3) at a range of concentrations (25, 50, 100, 200, and 400 mM), and untreated control. Regardless of deicing salts, they significantly delayed and reduced seedling emergence of oilseed rape with increasing salt concentration. Non-linear regression analysis of seedling emergence with a range of salt concentrations by fitting to the log-logistic model revealed that the chloride deicing salts reduced seedling emergence more than the non-chloride deicing salt SM-3. The GR50 value, the concentration causing 50% seedling emergence, of SM-3 was 47.1 mM, while those of the chloride deicing salts ranged from 30.7 mM (PC-10) to 37.5 mM (ES-1), showing approximately 10 mM difference between non-chloride and chloride deicing salts. Our findings suggest that seedling emergence assay is a useful tool to estimate the potential damage caused by deicing salts on crops.

Analyzing Time in Port and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Vessels using Duration Model (생존분석모형을 이용한 선박의 재항시간 및 온실가스 배출량 분석)

  • Shin, Kangwon;Cheong, Jang-Pyo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.4D
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    • pp.323-330
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    • 2010
  • The time in port for vessels is one of the important factors for analyzing the operation status and the capacity of ports. In addition, the time in port for vessels can be directly used for estimating the greenhouse gas emissions resulted from vessels in port. However, it is unclear which variables can affect the time in port for vessels and what the marginal effect of each variable is. With these challenges in mind, the study analyzes the time in port for vessels arriving and departing port of Busan by using a parametric survival model. The results show that the log-logistic accelerated failure time model is appropriate to explain the time in port for 19,167 vessels arriving and departing port of Busan in 2008, in which the time in port is significantly affected by gross tonnage of vessels, service capacity of terminal, and vessel type. This study also shows that the greenhouse gas emission resulted from full-container vessels, which accounted for about 61% of all vessels with loading/unloading purpose arriving and departing port of Busan in 2008, is about "17 ton/vessel" in the boundary of port of Busan. However, the hotelling greenhouse gas emissions resulted from non-container vessels (3,774 vessels; 20%) are greater than those from the full-container vessels. Hence, it is necessary to take into account more efficient port management polices and technologies to reduce the service time of non-container vessels in port of Busan.

A Study on the Physical and Mental Health Factors affecting Industrial Accidents (산업재해 발생에 영향을 미치는 건강요인에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Myung-Sun;Roh, Jae-Hoon;Moon, Young-Hahn
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.22 no.3 s.27
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    • pp.355-367
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    • 1989
  • This study examined the physical and mental health factors affecting the industrial accidents of 142 injured and 1,212 uninjured workers in the shipbuilding industry from 1986 to 1988. The results acquired from the Todai Health Index (THI) and from analysis of the health examination were as follows: 1. Among the personal characteristics of the workers, the educational level of injured workers was significantly lower than that of the uninjured workers. 2. Among the physical characteristics, vision and $R\ddot{o}hrer$ Index of the injured workers were lower than those of the uninjured workers, and the difference was statistically significant. On the other hand, the differences in height, weight, hearing function, hematocrit, blood pressure, urine test, and X-ray findings were not statistically significant between the injured and uninjured workers. 3. The score of the THI questionnaire on the physical and mental health of the injured workers was higher than that of the uninjured workers, and the difference was statistically significant. 4. Form the THI score, the industrial workers had complained more about mental health than physical health and there was a statistically singinficant relation with the industrial accidents. 5. The relative risk expressed in terms of the odds ratio was 2.9 for poorer vision, 2.7 for a lower educational level, 2.2 for a higher THI score and 1.6 for overdrinking. 6 Educational level, vision, and the THI score were selected as significant factors influencing industrial accidents based on a log-linear model. According to the results of this model by logistic analysis, the odds ratio of industrial accidents was 1.8 for a lower educational level, 1.7 for poorer vision, and 1.6 for a higher THI score. 7 By event history analysis with the dependent variable as the duration of work at the time of the industrial accident, educational level, age, $R\ddot{o}hrer$ Index and THI score were the statistically significant variables selected, and the hazard rate of industrial accident occurrence was 0.24 for a lower educational level, 0.92 for age, 0.99 for a lower $R\ddot{o}hrer$ Index and 2.72 for a higher THI score. As we have seen, educational level and THI score were the most significant factors affecting the hazard rate of industrial accidents. Vision, $R\ddot{o}hrer$ Index, age, and drinking behavior were also statistically significant variables influencing industrial accidents. Therefore, in order to prevent industrial accidents, it is necessary to establish a health management plan for industry which can objectively evaluate not only the physical but also the mental health of the workers. If we use this type of study as a prospective study design, we can determine the relative risk of physical and mental health factors on industrial accidents. Furthermore, it is expected that this type of study will provide workers at high risk with more precise basic data for a health managment plan for industrial accident prevention.

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An Intelligent Intrusion Detection Model Based on Support Vector Machines and the Classification Threshold Optimization for Considering the Asymmetric Error Cost (비대칭 오류비용을 고려한 분류기준값 최적화와 SVM에 기반한 지능형 침입탐지모형)

  • Lee, Hyeon-Uk;Ahn, Hyun-Chul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.157-173
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    • 2011
  • As the Internet use explodes recently, the malicious attacks and hacking for a system connected to network occur frequently. This means the fatal damage can be caused by these intrusions in the government agency, public office, and company operating various systems. For such reasons, there are growing interests and demand about the intrusion detection systems (IDS)-the security systems for detecting, identifying and responding to unauthorized or abnormal activities appropriately. The intrusion detection models that have been applied in conventional IDS are generally designed by modeling the experts' implicit knowledge on the network intrusions or the hackers' abnormal behaviors. These kinds of intrusion detection models perform well under the normal situations. However, they show poor performance when they meet a new or unknown pattern of the network attacks. For this reason, several recent studies try to adopt various artificial intelligence techniques, which can proactively respond to the unknown threats. Especially, artificial neural networks (ANNs) have popularly been applied in the prior studies because of its superior prediction accuracy. However, ANNs have some intrinsic limitations such as the risk of overfitting, the requirement of the large sample size, and the lack of understanding the prediction process (i.e. black box theory). As a result, the most recent studies on IDS have started to adopt support vector machine (SVM), the classification technique that is more stable and powerful compared to ANNs. SVM is known as a relatively high predictive power and generalization capability. Under this background, this study proposes a novel intelligent intrusion detection model that uses SVM as the classification model in order to improve the predictive ability of IDS. Also, our model is designed to consider the asymmetric error cost by optimizing the classification threshold. Generally, there are two common forms of errors in intrusion detection. The first error type is the False-Positive Error (FPE). In the case of FPE, the wrong judgment on it may result in the unnecessary fixation. The second error type is the False-Negative Error (FNE) that mainly misjudges the malware of the program as normal. Compared to FPE, FNE is more fatal. Thus, when considering total cost of misclassification in IDS, it is more reasonable to assign heavier weights on FNE rather than FPE. Therefore, we designed our proposed intrusion detection model to optimize the classification threshold in order to minimize the total misclassification cost. In this case, conventional SVM cannot be applied because it is designed to generate discrete output (i.e. a class). To resolve this problem, we used the revised SVM technique proposed by Platt(2000), which is able to generate the probability estimate. To validate the practical applicability of our model, we applied it to the real-world dataset for network intrusion detection. The experimental dataset was collected from the IDS sensor of an official institution in Korea from January to June 2010. We collected 15,000 log data in total, and selected 1,000 samples from them by using random sampling method. In addition, the SVM model was compared with the logistic regression (LOGIT), decision trees (DT), and ANN to confirm the superiority of the proposed model. LOGIT and DT was experimented using PASW Statistics v18.0, and ANN was experimented using Neuroshell 4.0. For SVM, LIBSVM v2.90-a freeware for training SVM classifier-was used. Empirical results showed that our proposed model based on SVM outperformed all the other comparative models in detecting network intrusions from the accuracy perspective. They also showed that our model reduced the total misclassification cost compared to the ANN-based intrusion detection model. As a result, it is expected that the intrusion detection model proposed in this paper would not only enhance the performance of IDS, but also lead to better management of FNE.

Genetic Variants of NBS1 Predict Clinical Outcome of Platinum-based Chemotherapy in Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer in Chinese

  • Xu, Jia-Li;Hu, Ling-Min;Huang, Ming-De;Zhao, Wan;Yin, Yong-Mei;Hu, Zhi-Bin;Ma, Hong-Xia;Shen, Hong-Bing;Shu, Yong-Qian
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.851-856
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    • 2012
  • Objective: NBS1 plays a key role in the repair of DNA double-strand break (DSB). We conducted this study to investigate the effect of two critical polymorphisms (rs1805794 and rs13312840) in NBS1 on treatment response and prognosis of advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients with platinum-based chemotherapy. Methods: Using TaqMan methods, we genotyped the two polymorphisms in 147 NSCLC patients. Odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidential intervals (CIs) were calculated as a measure of difference in the response rate of platinum-based chemotherapy using logistic regression analysis. The Kaplan-Meier and log-rank tests were used to assess the differences in progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Cox proportional hazards model was applied to assess the hazard ratios (HRs) for PFS and OS. Results: Neither of the two polymorphisms was significantly associated with treatment response of platinum-based chemotherapy. However, patients carrying the rs1805794 CC variant genotype had a significantly improved PFS compared to those with GG genotype (16.0 vs. 8.0 months, P = 0.040). Multivariable cox regression analysis further showed that rs1805974 was a significantly favorable prognostic factor for PFS [CC/CG vs. GG: Adjusted HR = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.39-0.99; CC vs. CG/GG: Adjusted HR = 0.56, 95% CI: 0.32-0.97). Similarly, rs13312840 with a small sample size also showed a significant association with PFS (CC vs. CT/TT: Adjusted HR = 25.62, 95% CI: 1.53-428.39). Conclusions: Our findings suggest that NBS1 polymorphisms may be genetic biomarkers for NSCLC prognosis especially PFS with platinum-based chemotherapy in the Chinese population.

Estimating design floods for ungauged basins in the geum-river basin through regional flood frequency analysis using L-moments method (L-모멘트법을 이용한 지역홍수빈도분석을 통한 금강유역 미계측 유역의 설계홍수량 산정)

  • Lee, Jin-Young;Park, Dong-Hyeok;Shin, Ji-Yae;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.8
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    • pp.645-656
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    • 2016
  • The study performed a regional flood frequency analysis and proposed a regression equation to estimate design floods corresponding to return periods for ungauged basins in Geum-river basin. Five preliminary tests were employed to investigate hydrological independence and homogeneity of streamflow data, i.e. the lag-one autocorrelation test, time homogeneity test, Grubbs-Beck outlier test, discordancy measure test ($D_i$), and regional homogeneity measure (H). The test results showed that streamflow data were time-independent, discordant and homogeneous within the basin. Using five probability distributions (generalized extreme value (GEV), three-parameter log-normal (LN-III), Pearson type 3 (P-III), generalized logistic (GLO), generalized Pareto (GPA)), comparative regional flood frequency analyses were carried out for the region. Based on the L-moment ratio diagram, average weighted distance (AWD) and goodness-of-fit statistics ($Z^{DIST}$), the GLO distribution was selected as the best fit model for Geum-river basin. Using the GLO, a regression equation was developed for estimating regional design floods, and validated by comparing the estimated and observed streamflows at the Ganggyeong station.

Clickstream Big Data Mining for Demographics based Digital Marketing (인구통계특성 기반 디지털 마케팅을 위한 클릭스트림 빅데이터 마이닝)

  • Park, Jiae;Cho, Yoonho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.143-163
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    • 2016
  • The demographics of Internet users are the most basic and important sources for target marketing or personalized advertisements on the digital marketing channels which include email, mobile, and social media. However, it gradually has become difficult to collect the demographics of Internet users because their activities are anonymous in many cases. Although the marketing department is able to get the demographics using online or offline surveys, these approaches are very expensive, long processes, and likely to include false statements. Clickstream data is the recording an Internet user leaves behind while visiting websites. As the user clicks anywhere in the webpage, the activity is logged in semi-structured website log files. Such data allows us to see what pages users visited, how long they stayed there, how often they visited, when they usually visited, which site they prefer, what keywords they used to find the site, whether they purchased any, and so forth. For such a reason, some researchers tried to guess the demographics of Internet users by using their clickstream data. They derived various independent variables likely to be correlated to the demographics. The variables include search keyword, frequency and intensity for time, day and month, variety of websites visited, text information for web pages visited, etc. The demographic attributes to predict are also diverse according to the paper, and cover gender, age, job, location, income, education, marital status, presence of children. A variety of data mining methods, such as LSA, SVM, decision tree, neural network, logistic regression, and k-nearest neighbors, were used for prediction model building. However, this research has not yet identified which data mining method is appropriate to predict each demographic variable. Moreover, it is required to review independent variables studied so far and combine them as needed, and evaluate them for building the best prediction model. The objective of this study is to choose clickstream attributes mostly likely to be correlated to the demographics from the results of previous research, and then to identify which data mining method is fitting to predict each demographic attribute. Among the demographic attributes, this paper focus on predicting gender, age, marital status, residence, and job. And from the results of previous research, 64 clickstream attributes are applied to predict the demographic attributes. The overall process of predictive model building is compose of 4 steps. In the first step, we create user profiles which include 64 clickstream attributes and 5 demographic attributes. The second step performs the dimension reduction of clickstream variables to solve the curse of dimensionality and overfitting problem. We utilize three approaches which are based on decision tree, PCA, and cluster analysis. We build alternative predictive models for each demographic variable in the third step. SVM, neural network, and logistic regression are used for modeling. The last step evaluates the alternative models in view of model accuracy and selects the best model. For the experiments, we used clickstream data which represents 5 demographics and 16,962,705 online activities for 5,000 Internet users. IBM SPSS Modeler 17.0 was used for our prediction process, and the 5-fold cross validation was conducted to enhance the reliability of our experiments. As the experimental results, we can verify that there are a specific data mining method well-suited for each demographic variable. For example, age prediction is best performed when using the decision tree based dimension reduction and neural network whereas the prediction of gender and marital status is the most accurate by applying SVM without dimension reduction. We conclude that the online behaviors of the Internet users, captured from the clickstream data analysis, could be well used to predict their demographics, thereby being utilized to the digital marketing.

Analysis of Treatment Failure after Curative Radiotherapy in Uterine Cervical Carcinoma (자궁경부암에 있어서 방사선치료 후의 치료실패 분석)

  • Chai, Gyu-Young;Kang, Ki-Mun;Lee, Jong-Hak
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.224-229
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    • 2001
  • Purpose : The aim of this study is to analyze the treatment failure patterns and the risk factors for locoregional or distant failure of uterine cervical carcinoma treated with radiation therapy. Materials and methods . A retrospective analysis was undertaken of 154 patients treated with curative radiation therapy in Gyeongsang National University Hospital from April 1989 through December 1997. According to FIGO classification, 12 patients were stage IB, 24 were IIA, 98 were IIB, 1 were IIIA, 17 were IIIB, 2 were IVA. Results : Overall treatment failure rate was $42.1\%$ (65/154), and that of complete responder was $31.5\%$ (41/130). Among 65 failures, 25 failed locoregionally, another 25 failed distantly, and 15 failed locoregionally and distantly. Multivariate analysis confirmed tumor size (>4 cm) as risk factor for locoregional failure, and tumor size (>4 cm), pelvic lymph node involvement as risk factors for distant failure. Conclusion : On the basis of results of our study and recent published data of prospective randomized study for locally advanced uterine cervical carcinoma, we concluded that uterine cervical carcinoma with size more than 4 cm or pelvic lymph node involvement should be treated with concurrent chemoradiation.

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