• Title/Summary/Keyword: log- normal distribution

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Estimating design floods for ungauged basins in the geum-river basin through regional flood frequency analysis using L-moments method (L-모멘트법을 이용한 지역홍수빈도분석을 통한 금강유역 미계측 유역의 설계홍수량 산정)

  • Lee, Jin-Young;Park, Dong-Hyeok;Shin, Ji-Yae;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.8
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    • pp.645-656
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    • 2016
  • The study performed a regional flood frequency analysis and proposed a regression equation to estimate design floods corresponding to return periods for ungauged basins in Geum-river basin. Five preliminary tests were employed to investigate hydrological independence and homogeneity of streamflow data, i.e. the lag-one autocorrelation test, time homogeneity test, Grubbs-Beck outlier test, discordancy measure test ($D_i$), and regional homogeneity measure (H). The test results showed that streamflow data were time-independent, discordant and homogeneous within the basin. Using five probability distributions (generalized extreme value (GEV), three-parameter log-normal (LN-III), Pearson type 3 (P-III), generalized logistic (GLO), generalized Pareto (GPA)), comparative regional flood frequency analyses were carried out for the region. Based on the L-moment ratio diagram, average weighted distance (AWD) and goodness-of-fit statistics ($Z^{DIST}$), the GLO distribution was selected as the best fit model for Geum-river basin. Using the GLO, a regression equation was developed for estimating regional design floods, and validated by comparing the estimated and observed streamflows at the Ganggyeong station.

Influence of Polarization Behaviors on the ECM Characteristics of SnPb Solder Alloys in PCB (PCB에서의 ECM 특성에 미치는 SnPb 솔더 합금의 분극거동의 영향)

  • Lee Shin-Bok;Yoo Young-Ran;Jung Ja-Young;Park Young-Bae;Kim Young-Sik;Joo Young-Chang
    • Journal of the Microelectronics and Packaging Society
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    • v.12 no.2 s.35
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    • pp.167-174
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    • 2005
  • Smaller size and higher integration of electronic components make smaller gap between metal conducting layers in electronic package. Under harsh environmental conditions (high temperature/humidity), electronic component respond to applied voltages by electrochemically ionization of metal and metal filament formation, which lead to short failure and this phenomenon is termed electrochemical migration(ECM). In this work, printed circuit board(PCB) is used for determination of ECM characteristics. Copper leads of PCB are soldered by eutectic solder alloys. Insulation breakdown time is measured at $85^{\circ}C,\;85{\%}RH$. CAF is the main mechanism of ECM at PCB. Pb is more susceptible to CAF rather than Sn, which corresponds well to the corrosion resistance of solder materials in aqueous environment. Polarization tests in chloride or chloride-free solutions fur pure metal and eutectic solder alloys are performed to understand ECM characteristics. Lifetime results show well defined log-normal distribution which resulted in biased voltage factor(n=2) by voltage scaling. Details on migration mechanism and lifetime statistics will be presented and discussed.

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Effects of Lower-Bound Resistances on Resistance Factors Calibration for Drilled Shafts (하한지지력이 현장타설말뚝의 저항계수에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Seok-Jung;Park, Jae-Hyun;Kim, Myoung-Mo
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.30 no.11
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    • pp.51-60
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    • 2014
  • Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) is one of the limit state design methods, and has been used worldwide, especially in North America. Also, the study for LRFD has been actively conducted in Korea. However, the data for LRFD in Korea were not sufficient, so resistance factors suggested by AASTTO have been used for the design in Korea. But the resistance factors suggested by AASHTO represent the characteristics of bedrocks defined in the US, therefore, it is necessary to determine the resistance factors for designs in Korea, which can reflect the characteristics of bedrocks in Korea. Also, the calculated probabilities of failure from conventional reliability analyses which commonly use log-normal distribution are not realistic because of the lower tail that can be extended to zero. Therefore, it is necessary to calibrate the resistance factors considering the lower-bound resistance. Thus, this study calculates the resistance factors using thirteen sets of drilled shaft load test results, and then calibrates the resistance factors considering the lower-bound resistance corresponding to a target reliability index of 3.0. As a result, resistance factors from conventional reliability analyses were determined in the range of 0.13-0.32 for the shaft resistance, and 0.19-0.29 for the base resistance, respectively. Also, the lower bounds of resistance were determined based on the Hoek-Brown failure criteria (2002) and GSI downgrading. Considering the lower-bound resistances, resistance factors increased by 0~8% for the shaft, and 0~13% for the base, respectively.

Evaluation for usefulness of Chukwookee Data in Rainfall Frequency Analysis (강우빈도해석에서의 측우기자료의 유용성 평가)

  • Kim, Kee-Wook;Yoo, Chul-Sang;Park, Min-Kyu;Kim, Hyeon-Jun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.40 no.11
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    • pp.851-859
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    • 2007
  • In this study, the chukwookee data were evaluated by applying that for the historical rainfall frequency analysis. To derive a two parameter log-normal distribution by using historical data and modem data, censored data MLE and binomial censored data MLE were applied. As a result, we found that both average and standard deviation were all estimated smaller with chukwookee data then those with only modern data. This indicates that rather big events rarely happens during the period of chukwookee data then during the modern period. The frequency analysis results using the parameters estimated were also similar to those expected. The point to be noticed is that the rainfall quantiles estimated by both methods were similar. This result indicates that the historical document records like the annals of Chosun dynasty could be valuable and effective for the frequency analysis. This also means the extension of data available for frequency analysis.

Bivariate regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfalls in Korea (이변량 지역빈도해석을 이용한 우리나라 극한 강우 분석)

  • Shin, Ju-Young;Jeong, Changsam;Ahn, Hyunjun;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.9
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    • pp.747-759
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    • 2018
  • Multivariate regional frequency analysis has advantages of regional and multivariate framework as adopting a large number of regional dataset and modeling phenomena that cannot be considered in the univariate frequency analysis. To the best of our knowledge, the multivariate regional frequency analysis has not been employed for hydrological variables in South Korea. Applicability of the multivariate regional frequency analysis should be investigated for the hydrological variable in South Korea in order to improve our capacity to model the hydrological variables. The current study focused on estimating parameters of regional copula and regional marginal models, selecting the most appropriate distribution models, and estimating regional multivariate growth curve in the multivariate regional frequency analysis. Annual maximum rainfall and duration data observed at 71 stations were used for the analysis. The results of the current study indicate that Frank and Gumbel copula models were selected as the most appropriate regional copula models for the employed regions. Several distributions, e.g. Gumbel and log-normal, were the representative regional marginal models. Based on relative root mean square error of the quantile growth curves, the multivariate regional frequency analysis provided more stable and accurate quantiles than the multivariate at-site frequency analysis, especially for long return periods. Application of regional frequency analysis in bivariate rainfall-duration analysis can provide more stable quantile estimation for hydraulic infrastructure design criteria and accurate modelling of rainfall-duration relationship.

Comparison of Airborne Lead Concentration in and Around Lead Production Plant (재생 납 생산 공장과 인근 지역의 공기 중 납 농도 수준 비교)

  • Park, Changhwan;Park, Yunkyung;Oh, Younhee;Choi, Inja;Cha, Wonseok;Choi, Sangjun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.34-41
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    • 2019
  • Objective: This study is conducted to evaluate airborne lead concentration in and around lead production plant. Methods: Airborne lead concentration was monitored simultaneously inside of the processes of lead recycling factory and outside of factory which include stack, boundary of factory and residential area 1 km and 7.5 km from factory, respectively. All samples were measured three times at 1.5 m from the ground and analyzed using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer, inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometer or flame atomic absorption spectrometer. Results: All airborne lead concentrations measured inside of factory($13.9{\mu}g/m^3-252.9{\mu}g/m^3$) and outside of factory($0.001{\mu}g/m^3-54.97{\mu}g/m^3$) showed log-normal distribution. Geometric mean lead concentration, $54.81{\mu}g/m^3$, measured inside of factory was significantly higher than outside of factory, $0.20{\mu}g/m^3$(p<0.01). Among the samples measured inside the factory, lead concentration was the highest in the refining process($59.02{\mu}g/m^3-252.9{\mu}g/m^3$). In the case of the samples outside the factory, the nearest chimney was the highest($3.84{\mu}g/m^3-54.97{\mu}g/m^3$), and the lead concentration at the farthest place, 7.5 km from the factory was the lowest($0.001{\mu}g/m^3-1.7{\mu}g/m^3$). The arithmetic lead concentration, $0.45{\mu}g/m^3$ in the residential area near the factory was below the atmospheric environment standard of $0.5{\mu}g/m^3$, but the maximum concentration of $3.4{\mu}g/m^3$ was exceeded. Conclusions: Airborne lead concentration in residential area, 1 km away from lead recycling plant, may exceed ambient air standard of $0.5{\mu}g/m^3$.

A Comparison of Analysis Methods for Work Environment Measurement Databases Including Left-censored Data (불검출 자료를 포함한 작업환경측정 자료의 분석 방법 비교)

  • Park, Ju-Hyun;Choi, Sangjun;Koh, Dong-Hee;Park, Donguk;Sung, Yeji
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.21-30
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    • 2022
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study is to suggest an optimal method by comparing the analysis methods of work environment measurement datasets including left-censored data where one or more measurements are below the limit of detection (LOD). Methods: A computer program was used to generate left-censored datasets for various combinations of censoring rate (1% to 90%) and sample size (30 to 300). For the analysis of the censored data, the simple substitution method (LOD/2), β-substitution method, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method, Bayesian method, and regression on order statistics (ROS)were all compared. Each method was used to estimate four parameters of the log-normal distribution: (1) geometric mean (GM), (2) geometric standard deviation (GSD), (3) 95th percentile (X95), and (4) arithmetic mean (AM) for the censored dataset. The performance of each method was evaluated using relative bias and relative root mean squared error (rMSE). Results: In the case of the largest sample size (n=300), when the censoring rate was less than 40%, the relative bias and rMSE were small for all five methods. When the censoring rate was large (70%, 90%), the simple substitution method was inappropriate because the relative bias was the largest, regardless of the sample size. When the sample size was small and the censoring rate was large, the Bayesian method, the β-substitution method, and the MLE method showed the smallest relative bias. Conclusions: The accuracy and precision of all methods tended to increase as the sample size was larger and the censoring rate was smaller. The simple substitution method was inappropriate when the censoring rate was high, and the β-substitution method, MLE method, and Bayesian method can be widely applied.

Study on establishment of emission cell test method for liquid phase building materials (방출셀을 이용한 액상건축자재 오염물질 방출시험방법 정립에 관한 연구)

  • Lim, Jungyun;Jang, Seongki;Seo, Sooyun
    • Analytical Science and Technology
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.191-200
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    • 2009
  • The aim of this study was to evaluate and establish of emission test method for liquid phase building materials such as paint, adhesive, sealant by emission cell. A small-scale emission chamber and emission cell were used to evaluate emission of TVOC from paint, adhesive, sealant. The quantity of TVOC emission were measured by a gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS). Background concentration of TVOC was below $10{\mu}g/m^3$ in the emission chamber and cell. Air tightness and recovery in chamber and cell showed good results. The recovery of thermal desorber for toluene and n-dodecane were about 120%. The repeatability of response factor and retention time in GC/MS below 30%. The method detection limit of VOCs ranged 0.04~8.82 ng. The concentration of TVOC emission using emission cell was 1.35~1.41 times higher than emission chamber. The correlation of TVOC emission using chamber and cell method was significantly high (r=0.91~0.97).

Spatio-temporal Variability of Soil Moisture within Remote Sensing Footprints in Semi-arid Area (건조지역 원격탐사 footprint 내 토양수분의 시공간적 변동성 분석)

  • Hwang, Kyotaek;Cho, Hun Sik;Lee, Seung Oh;Choi, Minha
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.3B
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    • pp.285-293
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    • 2010
  • Soil moisture is a key factor to control the exchange of water and energy between the surface and the atmosphere. In recent, many researches for spatial and temporal variability analyses of soil moisture have been conducted. In this study, we analyzed the spatio-temporal variability of soil moisture in Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed, Arizona, U.S. during the Soil Moisture Experiment 2004 (SMEX04). The spatio-temporal variability analyses were performed to understand sensitivity of five observation sites with precipitation and relationship between mean soil moisture, and its standard deviation and coefficient of variation at the sites, respectively. It was identified that log-normal distribution was superior to replicate soil moisture spatial patterns. In addition, precipitation was identified as a key physical factor to understand spatio-temporal variability of soil moisure based on the temporal stability analysis. Based on current results, higher spatial variability was also observed which was agreed with the results of previous studies. The results from this study should be essential for improvement of the remotely sensed soil moisture retrieval algorithm.