• 제목/요약/키워드: local weather forecast

검색결과 61건 처리시간 0.029초

KEOP-2005 집중관측자료를 이용한 관측시스템 실험 연구 (Observing System Experiments Using the Intensive Observation Data during KEOP-2005)

  • 원혜영;박창근;김연희;이희상;조천호
    • 대기
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    • 제18권4호
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    • pp.299-316
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    • 2008
  • The intensive upper-air observation network was organized over southwestern region of the Korean Peninsula during the Korea Enhanced Observing Program in 2005 (KEOP-2005). In order to examine the effect of additional upper-air observation on the numerical weather forecasting, three Observing System Experiments (OSEs) using Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System (KLAPS) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with KEOP-2005 data are conducted. Cold start case with KEOP-2005 data presents a remarkable predictability difference with only conventional observation data in the downstream and along the Changma front area. The sensitivity of the predictability tends to decrease under the stable atmosphere. Our results indicates that the effect of intensive observation plays a role in the forecasting of the sensitive area in the numerical model, especially under the unstable atmospheric conditions. When the intensive upper-air observation data (KEOP-2005 data) are included in the OSEs, the predictability of precipitation is partially improved. Especially, when KEOP-2005 data are assimilated at 6-hour interval, the predictability on the heavy rainfall showing higher Critical Success Index (CSI) is highly improved. Therefore it is found that KEOP-2005 data play an important role in improving the position and intensity of the simulated precipitation system.

A Forecast Model for the First Occurrence of Phytophthora Blight on Chili Pepper after Overwintering

  • Do, Ki-Seok;Kang, Wee-Soo;Park, Eun-Woo
    • The Plant Pathology Journal
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    • 제28권2호
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    • pp.172-184
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    • 2012
  • An infection risk model for Phytophthora blight on chili pepper was developed to estimate the first date of disease occurrence in the field. The model consisted of three parts including estimation of zoosporangium formation, soil water content, and amount of active inoculum in soil. Daily weather data on air temperature, relative humidity and rainfall, and the soil texture data of local areas were used to estimate infection risk level that was quantified as the accumulated amount of active inoculum during the prior three days. Based on the analysis on 190 sets of weather and disease data, it was found that the threshold infection risk of 224 could be an appropriate criterion for determining the primary infection date. The 95% confidence interval for the difference between the estimated date of primary infection and the observed date of first disease occurrence was $8{\pm}3$ days. In the model validation tests, the observed dates of first disease occurrence were within the 95% confidence intervals of the estimated dates in the five out of six cases. The sensitivity analyses suggested that the model was more responsive to temperature and soil texture than relative humidity, rainfall, and transplanting date. The infection risk model could be implemented in practice to control Phytophthora blight in chili pepper fields.

강원고랭지 농업기상 감시 및 분석시스템 구축 (System Networking for the Monitoring and Analysis of Local Climatic Information in Alpine Area)

  • 안재훈;윤진일;김기영
    • 한국농림기상학회지
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    • 제3권3호
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    • pp.156-162
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    • 2001
  • In order to monitor local climatic information, twelve automated weather stations (AWS) were installed in alpine area by the Alpine Agricultural Experiment Station, Rural Development Administration (RDA), at the field of major crop located in around highland area, and collected data from 1993 to 2000. Hourly measurements of air and soil temperature (underground 10 cm,20 cm), relative humidity, wind speed and direction, precipitation, solar radiation and leaf wetness were automatically performed and the data could be collected through a public phone line. Datalogger was selected as CR10X (Campbell scientific, LTD, USA) out of consideration for sensers' compatibility, economics, endurance and conveniences. All AWS in alpine area were combined for net work and daily climatic data were analyzed in text and graphic file by program (Chumsungdae, LTD) on 1 km $\times$ 1 km grid tell basis. In this analysis system, important multi-functionalities, monitoring and analysis of local climatic information in alpine area was emphasized. The first objective was to obtain the output of a real time data from AWS. Secondly, daily climatic normals for each grid tell were calculated from geo-statistical relationships based on the climatic records of existing weather stations as well as their topographical informations. On 1 km $\times$ 1 km grid cell basis, real time climatic data from the automated weather stations and daily climatic normals were analyzed and graphed. In the future, if several simulation models were developed and connected with this system it would be possible to precisely forecast crop growth and yield or plant disease and pest by using climatic information in alpine area.

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KLAPS와 3DVAR를 이용한 ProbeX-2009 남·서해상 고층관측자료의 관측 시스템 실험 연구 (Observing System Experiments Using KLAPS and 3DVAR for the Upper-Air Observations over the South and West sea during ProbeX-2009)

  • 황윤정;하종철;김연희;김기훈;전은희;장동언
    • 대기
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    • 제21권1호
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2011
  • Numerical prediction capability has been improved over the decades, but progress of prediction for high-impact weather (HIW) was unsatisfactory. One reason of low predictability for HIW is lack of observation data. The National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR) has been performed observation program for improvement of predictability, and reduction in social and economical cost for HIW. As part of this observation program, summer intensive observation program (ProbeX-2009) was performed at the observation-gap areas from 25 August to 6 September 2009. Sounding observations using radiosonde were conducted in the Gisang2000 research vessel (R/V) from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) over the West Sea and the Eardo R/V from the Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute (KORDI) over the South Sea. Observation System Experiment (OSE) is carried out to examine the effect of ProbeX-2009 data. OSEs using Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System (KLAPS) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model are conducted to investigate the predictability for a short time forecast. And, OSEs using WRF/3DVAR system and WRF forecast model are conducted to study the predictability for an extended time. Control experiment (K_CTL and CNTL) used only GTS observation and experiment (K_EXP and SWEXP) used ProbeX-2009 data from two system are performed. ETS for 3hr accumulated rainfall simulated by KLAPS-WRF shows that K_EXP is higher than K_CTL. Also, ETS for 12hr accumulated rainfall of SWEXP from 3DVAR-WRF is higher than CNTL. The results indicate that observation over the ocean has positive impact on HIW prediction.

다양한 GIS 플랫폼을 위한 고해상도 기상레이더 정보 시각화 기법 (A Visualization Method of High Definition Weather Radar Information for various GIS Platforms)

  • 장봉주;임상훈;이석환;문광석;;권기룡
    • 한국멀티미디어학회논문지
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    • 제16권11호
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    • pp.1239-1249
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    • 2013
  • 기상레이더의 발전과 더불어 국내외적으로 정밀한 기상레이더를 이용한 토네이도, 돌발홍수 등의 돌발적인 기상현상에 대한 기상데이터 분석 및 기상현상 예측 기술 등의 연구가 활발히 이루어지고 있다. 그에 반해 레이더 자료에 대한 시각화 및 표출 방법에 대한 관심이 증가하고 있지만, 현재까지의 기상과 관련한 각 국가 기관 등에서는 단순히 표출된 레이더영상을 GIS 데이터에 사상하여 해석하는 데 급급한 실정이다. 본 논문은 저고도에서 일어나는 국지성, 기습성 기상변화를 관측하고 효과적으로 대응하기 위해, 시 공간적고해상도를 갖는 기상레이더로부터 관측된 데이터 자료를 효과적으로 표현하기 위해 다양한 GIS 플랫폼에서 서비스할 수 있는 고해상도 기상관측 데이터의 표현 기법을 제안한다. 제안 기법에서는 기상레이더로부터 획득된 데이터를 이용하여 래스터 및 벡터 형태의 고해상도 자료구조로 변환하여 GIS 플랫폼 상에서 정확한 좌표위치와 고도에 직관적으로 인지할 수 있도록 하기 위한 방법을 제시하였다. 실험결과 GIS 플랫폼과 융합된 고해상도 기상데이터를 이용함으로써 돌발성 기후변화, 국지성 폭우, 토네이도 등의 정확한 위치와 고도 등의 정보를 포함하여 기상상황을 직관적으로 인지하고, 상세히 분석할 수 있는 것을 확인하였다.

심층신경망을 이용한 활주로 가시거리 예측 모델의 고도화 (Advanced Estimation Model of Runway Visual Range using Deep Neural Network)

  • 구성관;박창환;홍석민
    • 한국항행학회논문지
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    • 제22권6호
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    • pp.491-499
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    • 2018
  • 항공기 이착륙 유무의 중요한 지표 중 하나인 활주로 가시거리는 기온, 습도 등과 같은 기상 조건에 영향을 받는다. 비행장의 활주로 이용 시 도착시점에서의 활주로 가시거리를 예측하는 것은 항공기 이용의 효율성에서 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 활주로 가시거리를 예측하기 위해 기존에 제안된 심층 신경망을 활용한 활주로 가시거리 예측 모델의 고도화를 통해 1시간 이후의 국지 비행장의 활주로 가시거리를 예측하였다. 이를 위해 예측 모델의 고도화는 입력 값으로 기상 정보(기온, 습도, 풍속, 활주로 가시거리)에 대한 시간 간격 변화와 예측 값의 선형변환을 통해 진행하였다. 제안된 방법은 과거 기상 관측 값을 바탕으로 예측 모델의 학습을 생성해 1시간 이후의 활주로 가시거리에 대한 예측을 수행하였고, 1시간 이후의 측정된 활주로 가시거리와 비교를 통해 타당성을 확인했다. 제안된 예측 모델은 예보를 제공해주지 않는 지역의 소규모 비행장에서 참고할 수 있는 활주로 가시거리 생성에 활용 할 수 있을 것이다.

장기체공무인기를 위한 제주도 모슬포 지역의 기상환경 분석 (The Analysis of Meterological Environment over Jeju Moseulpo Region for HALE UAV)

  • 조영준;안광득;이희춘;하종철;최규용;조천호;김수복
    • 한국군사과학기술학회지
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    • 제18권4호
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    • pp.469-477
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    • 2015
  • In this study, the characteristics of main wind direction, vertical temperature and wind speed profile near the Moseulpo airfield for HALE UAV(High Altitude Long Endurance Unmaned Aerial Vehicle) is investigated. The results are summarized as follows, main wind direction is governed by air mass according to season and local wind such as land-sea breeze. The directions of landing and take-off of HALE UAV will be selected as the south-east direction in June ~ August, north-west direction in October ~ March, and south-east direction at daytime in April ~ May, September. Annual variation of temperature at 100 hPa showed that temperature in summer season is lower than winter season. On the other hands, wind speed at 250 hPa in winter season is higher than summer season. The threshold values of temperature and wind speed for HALE UAV flight are $-75^{\circ}C$ and $90ms^{-1}$, which were determined by 5 % frequency value($1.96{\sigma}$), respectively.

부산 연안역의 오존 농도에 미치는 해풍의 영향 (The Influences of 5ea Breeze on Surface Ozone Concentration in Pusan Coastal Area, Korea)

  • 김유근;이화운
    • 한국환경과학회지
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    • 제5권3호
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    • pp.265-275
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    • 1996
  • Air pollution characteristics and the influence of sea breeze on surface ozone concentration were studied using the data measured at 7 air quality continuous monitoring stations from June to September using 3 years (1990, 1993, 1994) in Pusan coastal area. Among the 246 sea breeze days for research Period, there were approximately 89 sea breeze days (36%) from lune to September, And there were 120 the episode days (68%) of ozone greater than or equal to 60 ppb in summer season. In 89 sea breeze days, the episode day was highly marked as 56 days (63%). So, we knew that the sea breeze greatly affects the occurence of ozone episode day. the ozone concentration under the condition of the sea breeze increase about 40% in the daytime. Frequencies distribution of $O_3$ concentration for sea breeze moved toward high concentration class. The characteristics of ozone concentration in relation to meteorological conditions of sea breeze is significant because we can discover major weather factors for eastablishing an air pollution- weather forecast system. For further. study about meterological approach method for photochemical air pollution, it is necessary to explain the characteristics of atmosphere below 1, 000 m, especially concerning the formation mechanism of inversion layers. And finally, we will study the relationships to synoptic weather conditions and vertical structure and diurnal variation of local wind systems including sea breeze, and the vertical movements of atmosphere in the city.

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지역규모 분석 모델을 이용한 서울 도시열섬 특성 연구 (A Study of the Urban Heat Island in Seoul using Local Analysis System)

  • 천지민;이선용;김규랑;최영진
    • 한국대기환경학회지
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    • 제30권2호
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    • pp.119-127
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    • 2014
  • A very high resolution weather analysis system (VHRAS) of 50 m horizontal resolution is established based on LAPS. VHRAS utilizes the 3 hourly forecast data of the Unified Model (UM) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) with the horizontal resolution of 12 km as initial guess fields. The analysis system ingests the automatic weather station (AWS) data as input observations. The analysis system operates every hour for Seoul, Korea region in real time basis. It takes less than 10 minutes for one analysis cycle. The size of grid of the analysis domain is $800{\times}660$, respectively. The analysis results from December 2010 to February 2011 showed that the mean biases of temperature, maximum and minimum temperature were -0.07, 1.6, $0.2^{\circ}C$, respectively. The temperature in the central part of the city revealed relatively higher value than that of the surrounding mountainous areas, which showed a heat island feature. The heat island appears in zonal direction since the central city region is developed along a large river. Along the heat island, the eastern region was warmer than the western region. The warmer temperature in the western part of the heat island was caused by anthropogenic heat change in conjunction with the change of land use. This system will provide more reliable weather data and information in Seoul.

울릉도 특별관측 수행평가 및 강수특성 분석 (The Performance Assessment of Special Observation Program (ProbeX-2009) and the Analysis on the Characteristics of Precipitation at the Ulleungdo)

  • 김기훈;김연희;김도우;장동언
    • 대기
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    • 제21권2호
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    • pp.185-196
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    • 2011
  • The performance assessment in radiosonde observation on the special observation program (ProbeX-2009) is performed and the characteristics of precipitation using Auto Weather System (AWS) and radiosonde data in 2009 at the Ulleungdo are investigated. The launching time, observation time, and maximum altitude of radiosonde are satisfied with the regulation from Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) but the duration of observational time of radiosonde is much shorter than that of the ProbeX-2007 because the altitude of launching site is higher than others in 2007. From the analysis of trajectories of radiosonde, most radiosondes at the Ulleungdo tend to move into the east because the westerly prevail at the middle latitude. However, when the Okhotsk high is expanded to the Korean peninsula and the north-westerly winds strengthen over the East Sea as the subtropical high is retreated, radiosonde tends to move into the south-west and south-east, respectively. Maximum distance appears at the end of observation level before May but the level of maximum distance is changed into 100 hPa after June because the prevailing wind direction is reversed from westerly to easterly at the stratosphere during summer time. The condition of precipitation was more correlated with the dynamic instability except Changma season. Precipitation in 2009 at the Ulleungdo occurred under the marine climate so that total precipitation amounts and precipitation intensity were increased and intensified during nighttime. The local environment favorable for the precipitation during nighttime was while the wind speed at the surface and the inflow from the shoreline were strengthened. Precipitation events also affected by synoptic condition but the localized effect induced by topography was more strengthened at the northern part of Ulleungdo.