• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
• /
• 제13권4호
• /
• pp.5-31
• /
• 2012

This paper aims at investigating the dynamics between aging population and local finance. In recent years, the aging rate has been accelerating the pace. The trend implies that Korea is moving towards the aging society, presumably, with unprecedented speed in the world. Aging society's biggest problems are centered around the explosive growth of the financial needs. In particular, these problems are apt to appear more seriously in local governments, as most of them are confronted with high level of aging population and poor financial bases. Firstly, it analyzes how the population structure in the local government impacts local finance, income and expenditure. Based upon in-depth literature reviews, this study examines variables related to aging population and local fiance. Secondly, it focuses on a series of positive and negative feedback loops which would reveal the essence of the mutual interaction structure between aging population and local governments' fiscal behaviors.

• 한국인구학
• /
• 제14권2호
• /
• pp.1-17
• /
• 1991

While various fiscal measures have been used to influence regional capital inflow or industrial location, the effect of fiscal variables on labor mobility has been little understood. Understanding the relationship between the composition of local public and urban migration would enhance the city govenment's ability to pursue an appropriate population policy. In order to examine the potential for local public finance to be utilized as a policy tool in directing urban population growth, this paper analyzes the impact of local government financial structure on urban migration. In examining the data on local government finance and the changes in population of Korean cities during the last ten years, it was found that cities with high per capita expenditure in regional development have experienced high population growth rates. In this study migration equations were constructed using various fiscal variables such as the proportion of special account expenditures which are mostly spent for local development purposes, per capita regional development expenditure, degree of local financial independence and per capita net fiscal benefit, along with other explanatory variables. The results of regression analysis showed that city government's regional development expenditure variables have a positive effect on urban net migration and a negative effect on outmigration. Fiscal independence and per capita net fiscal benefit had mixed effects on in and out migration variables, implying that local tax burden does not consistently deter inmigration or induce outmigration. Based on the results of this study some important policy implications can be found regarding local government's fiscal policies. Those cities seeking to attract higher population inflow should make a greater effort in appropriating local expenditures for regional development purposes such as infrastructure, housing, and transportation. city governments should not be too concerned about high local tax burden or necessarily seek to enhance financial independence for these factors do not exert a clear influence on urban population growth or labor supply.

• 대한건축학회논문집:계획계
• /
• 제35권4호
• /
• pp.127-134
• /
• 2019

Recently, the city development policies are being switched to the policies focusing on recession worldwide. Even though South Korea is also facing the phenomena that small and medium-sized cities are downsized because of a decrease in population and an aging society problem, there is lack of solutions and even they are still planning city development policies based on prospect of high growth. This study is featuring 4 viewpoints depending on shrinking population trend in 7 small and medium sized local cities, which are chosen as downsized cities. It is dealing with population peak, current population, 2030 population, and 2040 population viewpoints. And this study uses downsizing simulation that suggests optimum area that fits population and then shows visual check of the status of the small and medium sized local cities. The area of the small and medium sized local cities are expanded more than needs when they are on population peak point. However, they need only 20% to 25% of current area in 2030 and 2040. The most important thing is realizing the seriousness and facing up to the 'shrinking' phenomena that each small and medium-sized cities suffer. Therefore, this study has significance for presenting the status of small and medium-sized cities' problems in South Korea.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
• /
• 제12권2호
• /
• pp.127-151
• /
• 2011

The purpose of this study is to examine measures to improve government's supply oriented housing policy in population declining cities. For this purpose, system dynamics simulation method was used to build urban-housing model and different sets of housing policies were tested to see their impact on local housing problems. Simulation result shows that there is no best set of housing policies that can solve all housing problems in population declining cities. It also indicates that housing policy that solve one type of problems can worsen other type of problems. Housing policy that increases population size has negative effect of housing oversupply. It also increases proportion of old houses in population declining cities. However, housing policy that makes city younger with newer houses tends to increase housing shortage and housing price. So, policy choice needs to be made with clear understanding of trade off between different policies. The result also shows it is difficult to expect a full scale effect of housing policy on local housing problems unless it is executed with regional economic development policy because local housing problems are so closely related with local economic problem in population declining local cities.

• 인터넷정보학회논문지
• /
• 제21권1호
• /
• pp.71-78
• /
• 2020

최근, 젠트리피케이션 현상으로 인하여 도심 내 지역 경제와 커뮤니티 형성에 필수적인 역할을 하는 지역 상권에 대한 체계적인 분석과 이해의 중요성이 커지고 있다. 본 연구에서는 지역 상권에 대한 체계적인 분석과 이해를 위한 방법론을 소개하고 실증적인 사례를 제시하고자 한다. 본 논문에서는 서울의 대표적인 지역상권인 가로수길과 가구거리의 유동인구를 이동통신 기지국 데이터를 통해 추적하고, 유동인구의 매출 패턴과 이동 흐름의 패턴을 파악하였다. 또한, 이동통신사의 기지국 기반 유동인구 데이터에 마르코브 체인을 적용하여 지역 상권 이해의 중요한 요소인 유동인구 흐름을 보다 체계적으로 이해하고자 하였다. 이와 같은 유동인구 흐름에 대한 분석 결과를 바탕으로, 본 논문에서는 상권 내 매출 정보와 결합되어 지역상권의 진화에 대한 시사점을 제공하고자 한다. 궁극적으로 본 연구의 결과가 젠트리피케이션 등에 의해 침체되는 지역 상권의 활성화를 촉진하고 더 나아가 도심 경제의 균형잡힌 성장에 기여할 것으로 기대한다.

• Nonlinear Functional Analysis and Applications
• /
• 제26권1호
• /
• pp.83-92
• /
• 2021

This paper studies approximate solutions for a class of nonlinear diffusion population models. Our methods are to use the fundamental solution of heat equations to construct integral forms of the models and the well-known Banach compression map theorem to prove the existence of positive solutions of integral equations. Non-steady-state local approximate solutions for suitable harvest functions are obtained by utilizing the approximation theorem of multivariate continuous functions.

• International Journal of Contents
• /
• 제8권2호
• /
• pp.89-96
• /
• 2012

Scientific analysis of crime hot spots is essential in preventing and/or suppressing crime. However, results could be different depending on the analytic methods, which highlights the importance of choosing adequate tools. The purpose of this study was to introduce two advanced techniques for detecting crime hot spots, GAM and Local Moran's I, hoping for more police agencies to adopt better techniques.GAM controls for the number of population in study regions, but local Moran's I does not. That is, GAM detects high crime rate areas, whereas local Moran's I identifies high crime volume areas. For GAM, physical disorder was used as a proxy measure for population at risk based on the logic of the broken windows theory. Different regions were identified as hot spots. Although GAM is generally regarded as a more advanced method in that it controls for population, it's usage is limited to only point data. Local Moran's I is adequate for zonal data, but suffers from the unavoidable MAUP(Modifiable Areal Unit Problem).

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
• /
• 제15권3호
• /
• pp.197-205
• /
• 2016

The public services closely related to the daily lives of the Japanese people, such as firefighting, police or primary school education, are largely financed by the local governments. As the population as a whole in Japan declines, the population in local regions are forecasted to experience particularly rapid decline in the future, and it is inevitable to reduce the cost of public services provided by the local governments to keep their financial basis sustainable. In order to provide public services to the people properly and fairly, the local governments own and utilize their public facilities, such as fire stations, police stations or primary schools. On the other hand, we have to secure the accessibility, which is the condition of accessing a facility easily in a whole local city including the high population density area and low population density area. In this paper, we propose a method of determining the number of future facilities and its facility locations in which we maintain the present accessibility. In our proposed method, we determine them comparing the accessibility measurement calculated by facility location model using the present and future population. We adopted k-centdian model as the facility location model, which can secure the accessibility in a whole local city determining the weights of both areas. We applied our proposed method to fire station in Iwaki city, Japan. The results suggested that 7 facilities would be reduced in 2064, after 50 years from 2014. Additionally, we confirmed that the future facility location had secured accessibility in both high and low population density area.

• 농촌계획
• /
• 제27권1호
• /
• pp.103-116
• /
• 2021

The purpose of this study is to analyze and diagnose the actual state of extinction risk in rural villages by analyzing time series population characteristics and extinction risk index of rural villages(Haengjeong-ri). As a research method, a time series analysis was performed on the 'population over 65' and the 'female population aged 20 to 39' related to the local extinction index. In addition, the disappearance of Haengjeong-ri village was analyzed using the existing local extinction index. For the study, Haengjeong-ri village-level GIS spatial data was constructed, and population attribute data in 2010, 2015, and 2020 were constructed. In order to derive implications, the change of the 'high risk of extinction 'village in the 2020 local extinction index, the distribution of the population of 'high risk of extinction' villages by three years, the population analysis of 'high risk of extinction' villages continuously from 2010 to 2020, and 'high risk of extinction' An analysis of the increase and decrease of the population of the village and the change of the local extinction index of Haengjeong-ri, where the city, county, and towns are located were analyzed. As a result of the analysis of this study, it was found that the number of villages with an aging of more than 50% increased by 2 to 3 times over 10 years. As a result of the analysis of the local extinction index, in 2010, the southwestern and central regions of South Chungcheongnam-do were high-risk extinction areas, but in 2020, all cities except Cheonan and Asan were converted to high risk extinction areas. Research has shown that Chungnam is facing a serious aging and village extinction crisis, and since the disappearance of villages gradually spreads, an initial response policy is needed. This result will be the same not only in Chungcheongnam-do but also in other rural villages. Therefore, in the case of rural villages, it is necessary to analyze and diagnose the Haengjeong-ri village unit, not the Eup-Myeon unit, and a response policy through diagnosis must be prepared urgently.

• 농촌계획
• /
• 제29권3호
• /
• pp.15-24
• /
• 2023

The sense of crisis regarding regional extinction due to low birth rates and an aging population is expanding. Generally, the local extinction index is used to analyze local extinction. However, it is challenging to diagnose the actual situation of village extinction risk in rural areas, even though the regional extinction index can be analyzed in units such as Si-Gun-Gu and Eup-Myeon-Dong. This difficulty arises because the regional extinction index solely relies on natural population growth indicators (elderly population and female population aged 20-39). Therefore, the purpose of this study is to develop a village extinction index that can identify the disappearance of rural villages. Additionally, the aim is to apply the developed indicators to the village (administrative ri) spatial unit. The existing regional extinction index used only mortality-related indicators as factors for natural population decline and fertility-related indicators as factors for natural population growth. However, the developed village extinction index included not only the factors of natural population change but also incorporated social population growth factors and factors related to the pace of village extinction. This is the key difference between the developed village extinction index and the existing regional extinction index. In this study, the indicators of "total population," "number of young women aged 20-44," "number of elderly population aged 70 or older," and "number of incoming population" were selected to develop a village extinction index. The village extinction index was developed by incorporating both natural population growth indicators and social population growth indicators. The developed village extinction index was applied to administrative villages. This research is expected to provide a more accurate understanding of the current state of rural villages facing extinction.