• The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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• v.4 no.7
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• pp.1749-1758
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• 1997

This paper suggests the development of dynamic forecasting model for short-term power demand based on Radial Basis Function Network and Pal's GLVQ algorithm. Radial Basis Function methods are often compared with the backpropagation training, feed-forward network, which is the most widely used neural network paradigm. The Radial Basis Function Network is a single hidden layer feed-forward neural network. Each node of the hidden layer has a parameter vector called center. This center is determined by clustering algorithm. Theatments of classical approached to clustering methods include theories by Hartigan(K-means algorithm), Kohonen(Self Organized Feature Maps %3A SOFM and Learning Vector Quantization %3A LVQ model), Carpenter and Grossberg(ART-2 model). In this model, the first approach organizes the load pattern into two clusters by Pal's GLVQ clustering algorithm. The reason of using GLVQ algorithm in this model is that GLVQ algorithm can classify the patterns better than other algorithms. And the second approach forecasts hourly load patterns by radial basis function network which has been constructed two hidden nodes. These nodes are determined from the cluster centers of the GLVQ in first step. This model was applied to forecast the hourly loads on Mar. $4^{th},\;Jun.\;4^{th},\;Jul.\;4^{th},\;Sep.\;4^{th},\;Nov.\;4^{th},$ 1995, after having trained the data for the days from Mar. $1^{th}\;to\;3^{th},\;from\;Jun.\;1^{th}\;to\;3^{th},\;from\;Jul.\;1^{th}\;to\;3^{th},\;from\;Sep.\;1^{th}\;to\;3^{th},\;and\;from\;Nov.\;1^{th}\;to\;3^{th},$ 1995, respectively. In the experiments, the average absolute errors of one-hour ahead forecasts on utility actual data are shown to be 1.3795%.

• KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.87-92
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• 2019

This paper describes the pattern analysis for data of the factory energy consumption by using machine learning method. While usual statistical methods or approaches require specific equations to represent the physical characteristics of the plant, machine learning based approach uses historical data and calculate the result effectively. Although rule-based approach calculates energy usage with the physical equations, it is hard to identify the exact equations that represent the factory's characteristics and hidden variables affecting the results. Whereas the machine learning approach is relatively useful to find the relations quickly between the data. The factory has several components directly affecting to the electricity consumption which are machines, light, computers and indoor systems like HVAC (heating, ventilation and air conditioning). The energy loads from those components are generated in real-time and these data can be shown in time-series. The various sensors were installed in the factory to construct the database by collecting the energy usage data from the components. After preliminary statistical analysis for data mining, time-series clustering techniques are applied to extract the energy load pattern. This research can attributes to develop Factory Energy Management System (FEMS).

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.39 no.1
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• pp.25-30
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• 2016

It is critical to forecast the maximum daily and monthly demand for power with as little error as possible for our industry and national economy. In general, long-term forecasting of power demand has been studied from both the consumer's perspective and an econometrics model in the form of a generalized linear model with predictors. Time series techniques are used for short-term forecasting with no predictors as predictors must be predicted prior to forecasting response variables and containing estimation errors during this process is inevitable. In previous researches, seasonal exponential smoothing method, SARMA (Seasonal Auto Regressive Moving Average) with consideration to weekly pattern Neuron-Fuzzy model, SVR (Support Vector Regression) model with predictors explored through machine learning, and K-means clustering technique in the various approaches have been applied to short-term power supply forecasting. In this paper, SARMA and intervention model are fitted to forecast the maximum power load daily, weekly, and monthly by using the empirical data from 2011 through 2013. $ARMA(2,\;1,\;2)(1,\;1,\;1)_7$ and $ARMA(0,\;1,\;1)(1,\;1,\;0)_{12}$ are fitted respectively to the daily and monthly power demand, but the weekly power demand is not fitted by AREA because of unit root series. In our fitted intervention model, the factors of long holidays, summer and winter are significant in the form of indicator function. The SARMA with MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) of 2.45% and intervention model with MAPE of 2.44% are more efficient than the present seasonal exponential smoothing with MAPE of about 4%. Although the dynamic repression model with the predictors of humidity, temperature, and seasonal dummies was applied to foretaste the daily power demand, it lead to a high MAPE of 3.5% even though it has estimation error of predictors.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.55-62
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• 2006

For the fault diagnosis of three-phase induction motors, we construct a experimental unit and then develop a diagnosis algorithm based on pattern recognition. The experimental unit consists of machinery module for induction motor drive and data acquisition module to obtain the fault signal. As the first step for diagnosis procedure, preprocessing is performed to make the acquired current simplified and normalized. To simplify the data, three-phase current is transformed into the magnitude of Concordia vector. As the next step, feature extraction is performed by kernel principal component analysis(KPCA) and linear discriminant analysis(LDA). Finally, we used the classifier based on radial basis function(RBF) network. To show the effectiveness, the proposed diagnostic system has been intensively tested with the various data acquired under different electrical and mechanical faults with varying load.