• Title/Summary/Keyword: linear probability models

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Influence of non-Gaussian characteristics of wind load on fatigue damage of wind turbine

  • Zhu, Ying;Shuang, Miao
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.217-227
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    • 2020
  • Based on translation models, both Gaussian and non-Gaussian wind fields are generated using spectral representation method for investigating the influence of non-Gaussian characteristics and directivity effect of wind load on fatigue damage of wind turbine. Using the blade aerodynamic model and multi-body dynamics, dynamic responses are calculated. Using linear damage accumulation theory and linear crack propagation theory, crack initiation life and crack propagation life are discussed with consideration of the joint probability density distribution of the wind direction and mean wind speed in detail. The result shows that non-Gaussian characteristics of wind load have less influence on fatigue life of wind turbine in the area with smaller annual mean wind speeds. Whereas, the influence becomes significant with the increase of the annual mean wind speed. When the annual mean wind speeds are 7 m/s and 9 m/s at hub height of 90 m, the crack initiation lives under softening non-Gaussian wind decrease by 10% compared with Gaussian wind fields or at higher hub height. The study indicates that the consideration of the influence of softening non-Gaussian characteristics of wind inflows can significantly decrease the fatigue life, and, if neglected, it can result in non-conservative fatigue life estimates for the areas with higher annual mean wind speeds.

Developing a Method to Define Mountain Search Priority Areas Based on Behavioral Characteristics of Missing Persons

  • Yoo, Ho Jin;Lee, Jiyeong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.293-302
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    • 2019
  • In mountain accident events, it is important for the search team commander to determine the search area in order to secure the Golden Time. Within this period, assistance and treatment to the concerned individual will most likely prevent further injuries and harm. This paper proposes a method to determine the search priority area based on missing persons behavior and missing persons incidents statistics. GIS (Geographic Information System) and MCDM (Multi Criteria Decision Making) are integrated by applying WLC (Weighted Linear Combination) techniques. Missing persons were classified into five types, and their behavioral characteristics were analyzed to extract seven geographic analysis factors. Next, index values were set up for each missing person and element according to the behavioral characteristics, and the raster data generated by multiplying the weight of each element are superimposed to define models to select search priority areas, where each weight is calculated from the AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process) through a pairwise comparison method obtained from search operation experts. Finally, the model generated in this study was applied to a missing person case through a virtual missing scenario, the priority area was selected, and the behavioral characteristics and topographical characteristics of the missing persons were compared with the selected area. The resulting analysis results were verified by mountain rescue experts as 'appropriate' in terms of the behavior analysis, analysis factor extraction, experimental process, and results for the missing persons.

A reliability-based fragility assessment method for seismic pounding between nonlinear buildings

  • Liu, Pei;Zhu, Hai-Xin;Fan, Peng-Peng;Yang, Wei-Guo
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.77 no.1
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    • pp.19-35
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    • 2021
  • Existing methods to estimate the probability of seismic pounding occurrence of adjacent buildings do not account for nonlinear behavior or only apply to simple lumped mass systems. The present study proposes an efficient method based on subset simulation for fragility and risk assessment of seismic pounding occurrence between nonlinear adjacent buildings neglecting pounding effects with application to finite element models. The proposed method is first applied to adjacent buildings modeled as elastoplastic systems with substantially different dynamic properties for different structural parameters. Seismic pounding fragility and risk of adjacent frame structures with different floor levels is then assessed, paying special attention to modeling the non-linear material behavior in finite element models. Difference in natural periods and impact location are identified to affect the pounding fragility simultaneously. The reliability levels of the minimum code-specified separation distances are also determined. In addition, the incremental dynamic analysis method is extended to assess seismic pounding fragility of the adjacent frame structures, resulting in higher fragility estimates for separation distances larger than the minimum code-specified ones in comparison with the proposed method.

Influence of strong ground motion duration on reinforced concrete walls

  • Flores, Camilo;Bazaez, Ramiro;Lopez, Alvaro
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.477-487
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    • 2021
  • This study focuses on the influence of strong ground motion duration on the response and collapse probability of reinforced concrete walls with a predominant response in flexure. Walls with different height and mass were used to account for a broad spectrum of configurations and fundamental periods. The walls were designed following the specifications of the Chilean design code. Non-linear models of the reinforced concrete walls using a distributed plasticity approach were performed in OpenSees and calibrated with experimental data. Special attention was put on modeling strength and stiffness degradation. The effect of duration was isolated using spectrally equivalent ground motions of long and short duration. In order to assess the behavior of the RC shear walls, incremental dynamic analyses (IDA) were performed, and fragility curves were obtained using cumulative and non-cumulative engineering demand parameters. The spectral acceleration at the fundamental period of the wall was used as the intensity measure (IM) for the IDAs. The results show that the long duration ground motion set decreases the average collapse capacity in walls of medium and long periods compared to the results using the short duration set. Also, it was found that a lower median intensity is required to achieve moderate damage states in the same medium and long period wall models. Finally, strength and stiffness degradation are important modelling parameters and if they are not included, the damage in reinforced concrete walls may be greatly underestimated.

Study and Application of the Relationship between Water Content and Sugar Content in Fruit and Vegetables (청과물의 수분과 당도와의 관계 구명 및 응용)

  • 조성인;배영민
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.299-306
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    • 1995
  • This study was carried to find out relationships between water content and sugar content in fruit and vegetables and present the possibility of estimating sugar content by measuring water content. Water content and sugar content of melons, peaches, and apples were measured. Both F-test and linear regression analysis on the experimental data were done. The regression models were developed and validated. The results were summarized as follow : 1. According to the F-test, the coefficients of determinant were greater than 0.8, and significance probability was less than 0.0001 in each materials. 2. According to the regression analysis of melons, peaches, and apples, the standard errors of calibration(SEC) were 0.67 brix%, 0.82 brix%, and 0.72 brix%, respectively. 3. The standard errors of prediction(SEP) were 0.76 brix%, 1.03 brix%, and 0.77 brix%, respectively. 4. The relationship between sugar content and water content in apple was successfully applied to measure the sugar content from hydrogen NMR spectrum of apple samples.

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A study of a new statistic for detection of outliers and/or influential observations in regression diagnostics (회귀진단에서 이상치와 영향관측치를 동시에 발견하는 새로운 통계량에 관한 연구)

  • 강은미
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.67-78
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    • 1993
  • A new diagnostic statistic for detecting outliers and influential observations in linear models is suggested and studied in this paper. The proposed statistic is a weighted sum of two measures; one is for detecting outliers and the other is for detecting influential observations. The merit of this statistic is that it is possible to distinguish outliers from influential observations. We have done some Monte-Carlo Simulation to find the probability distribution of this statistic.

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The wage determinants of college graduates using Heckman's sample selection model (Heckman의 표본선택모형을 이용한 대졸자의 임금결정요인 분석)

  • Cho, Jangsik
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.1099-1107
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    • 2017
  • In this study, we analyzed the determinants of wages of college graduates by using the data of "2014 Graduates Occupational Mobility Survey" conducted by Korea Employment Information Service. In general, wages contain two complex pieces of information about whether an individual is employed and the size of the wage. However, in many previous researches on wage determinants, sample selection bias tends to be generated by performing linear regression analysis using only information on wage size. We used the Heckman sample selection models for analysis to overcome this problem. The main results are summarized as follows. First, the validity of the Heckman's sample selection model is statistically significant. Male is significantly higher in both job probability and wage than female. As age increases and parents' income increases, both the probability of employment and the size of wages are higher. Finally, as the university satisfaction increases and the number of certifications acquired increased, both the probability of employment and the wage tends to increase.

Compiler Analysis Framework Using SVM-Based Genetic Algorithm : Feature and Model Selection Sensitivity (SVM 기반 유전 알고리즘을 이용한 컴파일러 분석 프레임워크 : 특징 및 모델 선택 민감성)

  • Hwang, Cheol-Hun;Shin, Gun-Yoon;Kim, Dong-Wook;Han, Myung-Mook
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.537-544
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    • 2020
  • Advances in detection techniques, such as mutation and obfuscation, are being advanced with the development of malware technology. In the malware detection technology, unknown malware detection technology is important, and a method for Malware Authorship Attribution that detects an unknown malicious code by identifying the author through distributed malware is being studied. In this paper, we try to extract the compiler information affecting the binary-based author identification method and to investigate the sensitivity of feature selection, probability and non-probability models, and optimization to classification efficiency between studies. In the experiment, the feature selection method through information gain and the support vector machine, which is a non-probability model, showed high efficiency. Among the optimization studies, high classification accuracy was obtained through feature selection and model optimization through the proposed framework, and resulted in 48% feature reduction and 53 faster execution speed. Through this study, we can confirm the sensitivity of feature selection, model, and optimization methods to classification efficiency.

An Optimal Investment Planning Model for Improving the Reliability of Layered Air Defense System based on a Network Model (다층 대공방어 체계의 신뢰도 향상을 위한 네트워크 모델 기반의 최적 투자 계획 모델)

  • Lee, Jinho;Chung, Suk-Moon
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.105-113
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    • 2017
  • This study considers an optimal investment planning for improving survivability from an air threat in the layered air defense system. To establish an optimization model, we first represent the layered air defense system as a network model, and then, present two optimization models minimizing the failure probability of counteracting an air threat subject to budget limitation, in which one deals with whether to invest and the other enables continuous investment on the subset of nodes. Nonlinear objective functions are linearized using log function, and we suggest dynamic programming algorithm and linear programing for solving the proposed models. After designing a layered air defense system based on a virtual scenario, we solve the two optimization problems and analyze the corresponding optimal solutions. This provides necessity and an approach for an effective investment planning of the layered air defense system.

Linear and nonlinear site response analyses to determine dynamic soil properties of Kirikkale

  • Sonmezer, Yetis Bulent;Bas, Selcuk;Isik, Nihat Sinan;Akbas, Sami Oguzhan
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.435-448
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    • 2018
  • In order to make reliable earthquake-resistant design of civil engineering structures, one of the most important considerations in a region with high seismicity is to pay attention to the local soil condition of regions. It is aimed in the current study at specifying dynamic soil characteristics of Kirikkale city center conducting the 1-D equivalent linear and non-linear site response analyses. Due to high vulnerability and seismicity of the city center of Kirikkale surrounded by active many faults, such as the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), the city of Kirikkale is classified as highly earthquake-prone city. The first effort to determine critical site response parameter is to perform the seismic hazard analyses of the region through the earthquake record catalogues. The moment magnitude of the city center is obtained as $M_w=7.0$ according to the recorded probability of exceedance of 10% in the last 50 years. Using the data from site tests, the 1-D equivalent linear (EL) and nonlinear site response analyses (NL) are performed with respect to the shear modulus reduction and damping ratio models proposed in literature. The important engineering parameters of the amplification ratio, predominant site period, peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration values are predicted. Except for the periods between the period of T=0.2-1.0 s, the results from the NL are obtained to be similar to the EL results. Lower spectral acceleration values are estimated in the locations of the city where the higher amplification ratio is attained or vice-versa. Construction of high-rise buildings with modal periods higher than T=1.0 s are obtained to be suitable for the city of Kirikkale. The buildings at the city center are recommended to be assessed with street survey rapid structural evaluation methods so as to mitigate seismic damages. The obtained contour maps in this study are estimated to be effective for visually characterizing the city in terms of the considered parameters.