• Title/Summary/Keyword: linear predictive

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Application of Google Search Queries for Predicting the Unemployment Rate for Koreans in Their 30s and 40s (한국 30~40대 실업률 예측을 위한 구글 검색 정보의 활용)

  • Jung, Jae Un;Hwang, Jinho
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.17 no.9
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    • pp.135-145
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    • 2019
  • Prolonged recession has caused the youth unemployment rate in Korea to remain at a high level of approximately 10% for years. Recently, the number of unemployed Koreans in their 30s and 40s has shown an upward trend. To expand the government's employment promotion and unemployment benefits from youth-centered policies to diverse age groups, including people in their 30s and 40s, prediction models for different age groups are required. Thus, we aimed to develop unemployment prediction models for specific age groups (30s and 40s) using available unemployment rates provided by Statistics Korea and Google search queries related to them. We first estimated multiple linear regressions (Model 1) using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average approach with relevant unemployment rates. Then, we introduced Google search queries to obtain improved models (Model 2). For both groups, consequently, Model 2 additionally using web queries outperformed Model 1 during training and predictive periods. This result indicates that a web search query is still significant to improve the unemployment predictive models for Koreans. For practical application, this study needs to be furthered but will contribute to obtaining age-wise unemployment predictions.

Development of Optimal Chlorination Model and Parameter Studies (최적 염소 소독 모형의 개발 및 파라미터 연구)

  • Kim, Joonhyun;Ahn, Sooyoung;Park, Minwoo
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.403-413
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    • 2020
  • A mathematical model comprised with eight simultaneous quasi-linear partial differential equations was suggested to provide optimal chlorination strategy. Upstream weighted finite element method was employed to construct multidimensional numerical code. The code was verified against measured concentrations in three type of reactors. Boundary conditions and reaction rate were calibrated for the sixteen cases of experimental results to regenerate the measured values. Eight reaction rate coefficients were estimated from the modeling result. The reaction rate coefficients were expressed in terms of pH and temperature. Automatic optimal algorithm was invented to estimate the reaction rate coefficients by minimizing the sum of squares of the numerical errors and combined with the model. In order to minimize the concentration of chlorine and pollutants at the final usage sites, a real-time predictive control system is imperative which can predict the water quality variables from the chlorine disinfection process at the water purification plant to the customer by means of a model and operate the disinfection process according to the influent water quality. This model can be used to build such a system in water treatment plants.

Cox Model Improvement Using Residual Blocks in Neural Networks: A Study on the Predictive Model of Cervical Cancer Mortality (신경망 내 잔여 블록을 활용한 콕스 모델 개선: 자궁경부암 사망률 예측모형 연구)

  • Nang Kyeong Lee;Joo Young Kim;Ji Soo Tak;Hyeong Rok Lee;Hyun Ji Jeon;Jee Myung Yang;Seung Won Lee
    • The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.260-268
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    • 2024
  • Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer in women worldwide, and more than 604,000 new cases were reported in 2020 alone, resulting in approximately 341,831 deaths. The Cox regression model is a major model widely adopted in cancer research, but considering the existence of nonlinear associations, it faces limitations due to linear assumptions. To address this problem, this paper proposes ResSurvNet, a new model that improves the accuracy of cervical cancer mortality prediction using ResNet's residual learning framework. This model showed accuracy that outperforms the DNN, CPH, CoxLasso, Cox Gradient Boost, and RSF models compared in this study. As this model showed accuracy that outperformed the DNN, CPH, CoxLasso, Cox Gradient Boost, and RSF models compared in this study, this excellent predictive performance demonstrates great value in early diagnosis and treatment strategy establishment in the management of cervical cancer patients and represents significant progress in the field of survival analysis.

Kinetic Behavior of Escherichia coli on Various Cheeses under Constant and Dynamic Temperature

  • Kim, K.;Lee, H.;Gwak, E.;Yoon, Y.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.27 no.7
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    • pp.1013-1018
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    • 2014
  • In this study, we developed kinetic models to predict the growth of pathogenic Escherichia coli on cheeses during storage at constant and changing temperatures. A five-strain mixture of pathogenic E. coli was inoculated onto natural cheeses (Brie and Camembert) and processed cheeses (sliced Mozzarella and sliced Cheddar) at 3 to 4 log CFU/g. The inoculated cheeses were stored at 4, 10, 15, 25, and $30^{\circ}C$ for 1 to 320 h, with a different storage time being used for each temperature. Total bacteria and E. coli cells were enumerated on tryptic soy agar and MacConkey sorbitol agar, respectively. E. coli growth data were fitted to the Baranyi model to calculate the maximum specific growth rate (${\mu}_{max}$; log CFU/g/h), lag phase duration (LPD; h), lower asymptote (log CFU/g), and upper asymptote (log CFU/g). The kinetic parameters were then analyzed as a function of storage temperature, using the square root model, polynomial equation, and linear equation. A dynamic model was also developed for varying temperature. The model performance was evaluated against observed data, and the root mean square error (RMSE) was calculated. At $4^{\circ}C$, E. coli cell growth was not observed on any cheese. However, E. coli growth was observed at $10{\circ}C$ to $30^{\circ}C$C with a ${\mu}_{max}$ of 0.01 to 1.03 log CFU/g/h, depending on the cheese. The ${\mu}_{max}$ values increased as temperature increased, while LPD values decreased, and ${\mu}_{max}$ and LPD values were different among the four types of cheese. The developed models showed adequate performance (RMSE = 0.176-0.337), indicating that these models should be useful for describing the growth kinetics of E. coli on various cheeses.

QSPR analysis for predicting heat of sublimation of organic compounds (유기화합물의 승화열 예측을 위한 QSPR분석)

  • Park, Yu Sun;Lee, Jong Hyuk;Park, Han Woong;Lee, Sung Kwang
    • Analytical Science and Technology
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.187-195
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    • 2015
  • The heat of sublimation (HOS) is an essential parameter used to resolve environmental problems in the transfer of organic contaminants to the atmosphere and to assess the risk of toxic chemicals. The experimental measurement of the heat of sublimation is time-consuming, expensive, and complicated. In this study, quantitative structural property relationships (QSPR) were used to develop a simple and predictive model for measuring the heat of sublimation of organic compounds. The population-based forward selection method was applied to select an informative subset of descriptors of learning algorithms, such as by using multiple linear regression (MLR) and the support vector machine (SVM) method. Each individual model and consensus model was evaluated by internal validation using the bootstrap method and y-randomization. The predictions of the performance of the external test set were improved by considering their applicability to the domain. Based on the results of the MLR model, we showed that the heat of sublimation was related to dispersion, H-bond, electrostatic forces, and the dipole-dipole interaction between inter-molecules.

A Real-Time Embedded Speech Recognition System

  • Nam, Sang-Yep;Lee, Chun-Woo;Lee, Sang-Won;Park, In-Jung
    • Proceedings of the IEEK Conference
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    • 2002.07a
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    • pp.690-693
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    • 2002
  • According to the growth of communication biz, embedded market rapidly developing in domestic and overseas. Embedded system can be used in various way such as wire and wireless communication equipment or information products. There are lots of developing performance applying speech recognition to embedded system, for instance, PDA, PCS, CDMA-2000 or IMT-2000. This study implement minimum memory of speech recognition engine and DB for apply real time embedded system. The implement measure of speech recognition equipment to fit on embedded system is like following. At first, DC element is removed from Input voice and then a compensation of high frequency was achieved by pre-emphasis with coefficients value, 0.97 and constitute division data as same size as 256 sample by lapped shift method. Through by Levinson - Durbin Algorithm, these data can get linear predictive coefficient and again, using Cepstrum - Transformer attain feature vectors. During HMM training, We used Baum-Welch reestimation Algorithm for each words training and can get the recognition result from executed likelihood method on each words. The used speech data is using 40 speech command data and 10 digits extracted form each 15 of male and female speaker spoken menu control command of Embedded system. Since, in many times, ARM CPU is adopted in embedded system, it's peformed porting the speech recognition engine on ARM core evaluation board. And do the recognition test with select set 1 and set 3 parameter that has good recognition rate on commander and no digit after the several tests using by 5 proposal recognition parameter sets. The recognition engine of recognition rate shows 95%, speech commander recognizer shows 96% and digits recognizer shows 94%.

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Prediction of BaP and Total PAH in Soil from Pyr Concentration using Regression Analysis (회귀분석을 통한 토양 내 Pyr 농도로부터 BaP와 총 PAH의 예측기법)

  • Lee, Woo-Bum;Kim, Jongo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.118-123
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    • 2017
  • This study investigated the feasibility of a statistical approach for the prediction of BaP and total PAHs as pyrogenic sources. As results of regression, excellent linear and multiple correlations ($r^2$ > 0.94) were observed between BaP (or ${\Sigma}PAH$) and Pyr concentrations. When a developed prediction equation was applied to other investigations as validation and application studies, outstanding prediction results were obtained. The predictive model showed very good correlation between the measured and calculated ${\Sigma}PAH$. From this equation, Pyr was an apparently important hydrocarbon for the prediction of PAH. This model might provide a potentially useful tool for the calculation of average BaP and ${\Sigma}PAH$ in a certain region without additional tests.

Evaluation of Vertical Bearing Capacity of Bucket Foundations in Layered Soil by Using Finite Element Analysis (유한요소해석을 통한 다층지반에서의 버킷기초 수직지지력 산정)

  • Park, Jeong-Seon;Park, Duhee;Yoon, Se-Woong;Saeed-ullah, Jan Mandokhai
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.32 no.7
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    • pp.35-45
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    • 2016
  • Estimation of vertical bearing capacity is critical in the design of bucket foundation used to support offshore structure. Empirical formula and closed form solutions for bucket foundations in uniform sand or clay profiles have been extensively studied. However, the vertical bearing capacity of bucket foundations in alternating layers of sand overlying clay is not well defined. We performed a series of two-dimensional axisymmetric finite element analyses on bucket foundations in sand overlying clay soil, using elasto-plastic soil model. The load transfer mechanism is investigated for various conditions. Performing the parametric study for the friction angles, undrained shear strengths, thickness of sand layer, and aspect ratios of foundation, we present the predictive charts for determining the vertical bearing capacities of bucket foundations in sand overlying clay layer. In addition, after comparing with the finite element analysis results, it is found that linear interpolation between the design charts give acceptable values in these ranges of parameters.

A Study on Development of STACO Model to Predict Bead Height in Tandem GMA Welding Process (탄템 GMA 용접공정의 표면비드높이 예측을 위한 STACO모델 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jongpyo;Kim, IllSoo;Park, Minho;Park, Cheolkyun;Kang, Bongyong;Shim, Jiyeon
    • Journal of Welding and Joining
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.8-13
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    • 2014
  • One of the main challenges of the automatic arc welding process which has been widely used in various constructions such as steel structures, bridges, autos, motorcycles, construction machinery, ships, offshore structures, pressure vessels, and pipelines is to create specific welding knowledge and techniques with high quality and productivity of the production-based industry. Commercially available automated arc welding systems use simple control techniques that focus on linear system models with a small subset of the larger set of welding parameters, thereby limiting the number of applications that can be automated. However, the correlations of welding parameters and bead geometry as welding quality have mostly been linked by a trial and error method to adjust the welding parameters. In addition, the systematic correlation between these parameters have not been identified yet. To solve such problems, a new or modified models to determine the welding parameters for tandem GMA (Gas Metal Arc) welding process is required. In this study, A new predictive model called STACO model, has been proposed. Based on the experimental results, STACO model was developed with the help of a standard statistical package program, MINITAB software and MATLAB software. Cross-comparative analysis has been applied to verify the reliability of the developed model.

Convergence Analysis of Factors Influencing the End-of-life Care Attitude in Undergraduate Nursing Students (간호대학생의 임종간호 태도에 영향을 미치는 융합적인 요인분석)

  • Yang, Seung Ae
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.141-154
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    • 2016
  • Objectives: The purpose of the study was to identify factors influencing on nursing students' end-of-life care attitude. Methods: A sample of convenience of 147 nursing students, Instrument included death anxiety, death attitude, Self-esteem, Life satisfaction, end-of-life care attitude. Results: A significant negative correlation was found among end-of-life care attitude, death anxiety, death attitude. Death anxiety(${\beta}$=-.392), self-esteem(${\beta}$=.179) & experience of learning(${\beta}$=-.227) about death were significant predictive variables. This variables accounted for 18.7% of the variance in end-of-life care attitude. Conclusions: Based on the Findings of this study, it can be used to develop educational programs for end-of-life care.