• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.39-58
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• 2024

Tunnel Boring Machines (TBM) use multiple disc cutters to excavate tunnels through rock. These cutters wear out due to continuous contact and friction with the rock, leading to decreased cutting efficiency and reduced excavation performance. The rock's abrasivity significantly affects cutter wear, with highly abrasive rocks causing more wear and reducing the cutter's lifespan. The Cerchar Abrasivity Index (CAI) is a key indicator for assessing rock abrasivity, essential for predicting disc cutter life and performance. This study aims to develop a new method for effectively estimating CAI using rock strength, petrological characteristics, linear regression, and machine learning. A database including CAI, uniaxial compressive strength, Brazilian tensile strength, and equivalent quartz content was created, with additional derived variables. Variables for multiple linear regression were selected considering statistical significance and multicollinearity, while machine learning model inputs were chosen based on variable importance. Among the machine learning prediction models, the Gradient Boosting model showed the highest predictive performance. Finally, the predictive performance of the multiple linear regression analysis and the Gradient Boosting model derived in this study were compared with the CAI prediction models of previous studies to validate the results of this research.

• Journal of Drive and Control
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.14-22
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• 2016

This paper presents a stochastic and predictive working-risk-assessment algorithm for excavators based on a one-layer laser scanner. The one-layer laser scanner is employed to detect objects and to estimate an object's dynamic behaviors such as the position, velocity, heading angle, and heading rate. To estimate the state variables, extended and linear Kalman filters are applied in consideration of laser-scanner information as the measurements. The excavator's working area is derived based on a kinematic analysis of the excavator's working parts. With the estimated dynamic behaviors and the kinematic analysis of the excavator's working parts, an object's behavior and the excavator's working area such as the maximum, actual, and predicted areas are computed for a working risk assessment. The four working-risk levels are defined using the predicted behavior and the working area, and the intersection-area-based quantitative-risk level has been computed. An actual test-data-based performance evaluation of the designed stochastic and predictive risk-assessment algorithm is conducted using a typical working scenario. The results show that the algorithm can evaluate the working-risk levels of the excavator during its operation.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.19-30
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• 2016

The projection of climate-related range shift is critical information for conservation planning of Korean fir (Abies koreana E. H. Wilson). We first modeled the distribution of Korean fir under current climate condition using five single-model species distribution models (SDMs) and the pre-evaluation weighted ensemble method and then predicted the distributions under future climate conditions projected with HadGEM2-AO under four $CO_2$ emission scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. We also investigated the predictive uncertainty stemming from five individual algorithms and four $CO_2$ emission scenarios for better interpretation of SDM projections. Five individual algorithms were Generalized linear model (GLM), Generalized additive model (GAM), Multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), Generalized boosted model (GBM) and Random forest (RF). The results showed high variations of model performances among individual SDMs and the wide range of diverging predictions of future distributions of Korean fir in response to RCPs. The ensemble model presented the highest predictive accuracy (TSS = 0.97, AUC = 0.99) and predicted that the climate habitat suitability of Korean fir would increase under climate changes. Accordingly, the fir distribution could expand under future climate conditions. Increasing precipitation may account for increases in the distribution of Korean fir. Increasing precipitation compensates the negative effects of increasing temperature. However, the future distribution of Korean fir is also affected by other ecological processes, such as interactions with co-existing species, adaptation and dispersal limitation, and other environmental factors, such as extreme weather events and land-use changes. Therefore, we need further ecological research and to develop mechanistic and process-based distribution models for improving the predictive accuracy.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.15 no.16
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• pp.6781-6785
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• 2014

Purpose: This study used receiver operating characteristic curves to analyze Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) medulloblastoma (MB) and primitive neuroectodermal tumor (PNET) outcome data. The aim of this study was to identify and optimize predictive outcome models. Materials and Methods: Patients diagnosed from 1973 to 2009 were selected for analysis of socio-economic, staging and treatment factors available in the SEER database for MB and PNET. For the risk modeling, each factor was fitted by a generalized linear model to predict the outcome (brain cancer specific death, yes/no). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was computed. Similar strata were combined to construct the most parsimonious models. A Monte Carlo algorithm was used to estimate the modeling errors. Results: There were 3,702 patients included in this study. The mean follow up time (S.D.) was 73.7 (86.2) months. Some 40% of the patients were female and the mean (S.D.) age was 16.5 (16.6) years. There were more adult MB/PNET patients listed from SEER data than pediatric and young adult patients. Only 12% of patients were staged. The SEER staging has the highest ROC (S.D.) area of 0.55 (0.05) among the factors tested. We simplified the 3-layered risk levels (local, regional, distant) to a simpler non-metastatic (I and II) versus metastatic (III) model. The ROC area (S.D.) of the 2-tiered model was 0.57 (0.04). Conclusions: ROC analysis optimized the most predictive SEER staging model. The high under staging rate may have prevented patients from selecting definitive radiotherapy after surgery.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.29 no.5
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• pp.356-366
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• 2019

Various TBM performance prediction models have been developed and most of them were considered penetration rate only. Despite the fact that some models have suggested equations and charts for estimating the utilization factor, but there are a few studies to estimate the TBM utilization factor. Utilization factor is affected by the type of TBM machine, operation, maintenance of machine, geological conditions, contractor experience and other factors. In this study, more than 100 case studies are analyzed to determine the relationship between the utilization factor and RMR, geological conditions, TBM types, tunnel length, and TBM diameter. Simple and multiple linear regression analysis are performed to develop predictive models for the utilization factor. The predictive model with explanatory variables of geological conditions, TBM types, tunnel length, and TBM diameter does not give a good correlation. The predictive models with explanatory variable of RMR give higher values of the coefficient of determination.

• Imaging Science in Dentistry
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• v.52 no.3
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• pp.239-244
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• 2022

Purpose: Despite the proliferation of numerous morphometric and anthropometric methods for sex identification based on linear, angular, and regional measurements of various parts of the body, these methods are subject to error due to the observer's knowledge and expertise. This study aimed to explore the possibility of automated sex determination using convolutional neural networks(CNNs) based on lateral cephalometric radiographs. Materials and Methods: Lateral cephalometric radiographs of 1,476 Iranian subjects (794 women and 682 men) from 18 to 49 years of age were included. Lateral cephalometric radiographs were considered as a network input and output layer including 2 classes(male and female). Eighty percent of the data was used as a training set and the rest as a test set. Hyperparameter tuning of each network was done after preprocessing and data augmentation steps. The predictive performance of different architectures (DenseNet, ResNet, and VGG) was evaluated based on their accuracy in test sets. Results: The CNN based on the DenseNet121 architecture, with an overall accuracy of 90%, had the best predictive power in sex determination. The prediction accuracy of this model was almost equal for men and women. Furthermore, with all architectures, the use of transfer learning improved predictive performance. Conclusion: The results confirmed that a CNN could predict a person's sex with high accuracy. This prediction was independent of human bias because feature extraction was done automatically. However, for more accurate sex determination on a wider scale, further studies with larger sample sizes are desirable.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.92-111
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• 2021

As fine dust negatively affects disease, industry and economy, the people are sensitive to fine dust. Therefore, if the occurrence of fine dust can be predicted, countermeasures can be prepared in advance, which can be helpful for life and economy. Fine dust is affected by the weather and the degree of concentration of fine dust emission sources. The industrial sector has the largest amount of fine dust emissions, and in industrial complexes, factories emit a lot of fine dust as fine dust emission sources. This study targets regions with old industrial complexes in local cities. The purpose of this study is to explore the factors that cause fine dust and develop a predictive model that can predict the occurrence of fine dust. weather data and fine dust data were used, and variables that influence the generation of fine dust were extracted through multiple regression analysis. Based on the results of multiple regression analysis, a model with high predictive power was extracted by learning with a machine learning regression learner model. The performance of the model was confirmed using test data. As a result, the models with high predictive power were linear regression model, Gaussian process regression model, and support vector machine. The proportion of training data and predictive power were not proportional. In addition, the average value of the difference between the predicted value and the measured value was not large, but when the measured value was high, the predictive power was decreased. The results of this study can be developed as a more systematic and precise fine dust prediction service by combining meteorological data and urban big data through local government data hubs. Lastly, it will be an opportunity to promote the development of smart industrial complexes.

• The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.31-38
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• 2018

Based on the measured data in the south western sea of Jeju Island during the SAVEX15(Shallow Water Acoustic Variability EXperiment 2015), the effect of internal waves on the PPD (Predictive Probability of Detection) of a sonar system was analyzed. The southern west sea of Jeju Island has complex flows due to internal waves and USC (Underwater Sound Channel). In this paper, sonar performance is predicted by probabilistic approach. The LFM (Linear Frequency Modulation) and MLS (Maximum Length Sequence) signals of 11 kHz - 31 kHz band of SAVEX15 data were processed to calculate the TL (Transmission Loss) and NL (Noise Level) at a distance of approximately 2.8 km from the source and the receiver. The PDF (Probability Density Function) of TL and NL is convoluted to obtain the PDF of the SE (Signal Excess) and the PPD according to the depth of the source and receiver is calculated. Analysis of the changes in the PPD over time when there are internal waves such as soliton packet and internal tide has confirmed that the PPD value is affected by different aspects.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.1-36
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• 2018

When it comes to explaining the relationship between inventory investment and business fluctuations, the production smoothing theory and the stock-out avoidance theory take contradictory stances. Decision-making related to inventory investments of corporations is thought to be influenced by both motives, but the relative sizes or directions of their respective influences can differ depending upon the phase of the business cycle. Against this backdrop, this paper differs from existing studies in that it theoretically tests the relative significances of the production smoothing and stock-out avoidance motives in the inventory investment dynamics, while placing its analytical focus on determining the existence and patterns of the asymmetric dynamics of inventory investment over the business cycle phases. To this end this paper sets up a non-linear model that is expanded from the existing linear inventory investment model, and checks whether its predictive power is better than that of the existing model. The results of analysis confirm the nature of the asymmetric dynamics of inventory investment over the business cycle phases. A stock-out avoidance motive appears but there is no significant production smoothing motive in boom times. In downturns, in contrast, the stock-out avoidance motive is insignificant, but a quality of asymmetric dynamics in which changes in inventory cause the deepening of recessions, due to the non-convexity of production costs proposed by Ramey (1991), is detected. This paper confirms that a model considering the asymmetric dynamics of inventory investment can have better predictive power than one that does not consider it, through within-sample and out-of-sample predictions and various predictive power tests. These research results are expected to be useful for economic forecasting, through their enhancement of the understandings of the inventory investment dynamics and of the nature of its business cycle destabilization.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.32 no.6
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• pp.384-395
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• 2020

Breaking waves generated by wave shoaling in coastal areas have a close relationship with various physical phenomena in coastal regions, such as sediment transport, longshore currents, and shock wave pressure. Therefore, it is crucial to accurately predict breaker index such as breaking wave height and breaking depth, when designing coastal structures. Numerous scientific efforts have been made in the past by many researchers to identify and predict the breaking phenomenon. Representative studies on wave breaking provide many empirical formulas for the prediction of breaking index, mainly through hydraulic model experiments. However, the existing empirical formulas for breaking index determine the coefficients of the assumed equation through statistical analysis of data under the assumption of a specific equation. In this paper, we applied a representative linear-based supervised machine learning algorithms that show high predictive performance in various research fields related to regression or classification problems. Based on the used machine learning methods, a model for prediction of the breaking index is developed from previously published experimental data on the breaking wave, and a new linear equation for prediction of breaker index is presented from the trained model. The newly proposed breaker index formula showed similar predictive performance compared to the existing empirical formula, although it was a simple linear equation.