• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.1-15
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• 2012

An empirical predictive relationship correlating bracketed duration to earthquake magnitude, site-to-source distance, and local site conditions (i.e. rock vs. stiff soil) for stable continental regions of North America is presented herein. The correlation was developed from data from 620 horizontal motions for central and eastern North America (CENA), consisting of 28 recorded motions and 592 scaled motions. The bracketed duration data was comprised of nonzero and zero durations. The non-linear mixed-effects regression technique was used to fit a predictive model to the nonzero duration data. To account for the zero duration data, logistic regression was conducted to model the probability of zero duration occurrences. Then, the probability models were applied as weighting functions to the NLME regression results. Comparing the bracketed durations for CENA motions with those from active shallow crustal regions (e.g. western North America: WNA), the motions in CENA have longer bracketed durations than those in the WNA. Especially for larger magnitudes at far distances, the bracketed durations in CENA tend to be significantly longer than those in WNA.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 1990.10a
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• pp.663-668
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• 1990

This paper deals with the application of a Generalized Predictive Control (CPC) to a Pressurized Water Reactor (P.W.R) Nuclear Power Plant. Generalized Predictive Control is a sort of Explicit Self-Tuning Control. Current self-tuning algorithms lack robustness to prior choices of either dead-time (input time delay of a plant) or model order. GPC is shown by simulation studies to be superior to accepted self-tuning techniques such as minimum variance and pole-placement from the viewpoint that it is robust to prior choices of dead-time or model order. In this paper a GPC controller is designed to control the P.W.R. nuclear power rlant with varying dead-time and through the designing procedure the designer is free from the constraint of knowing the exact dead-time. The controller is constructed based on the 2nd order linear model approximated in the vicinity of operating point. To ensure that this low-order model describes the complex real dynamics well enough for control purposes, model parameters are updated on-line with a Recursive Least Squares algorithm. Simulation results are successful and show the possibilities of the GPC control application to actual plants with varying or unknown dead-time.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.347-352
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• 2016

Background: This study used receiver operating characteristic curve to analyze Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) adenosquamous carcinoma data to identify predictive models and potential disparities in outcome. Materials and Methods: This study analyzed socio-economic, staging and treatment factors available in the SEER database for adenosquamous carcinoma. For the risk modeling, each factor was fitted by a generalized linear model to predict the cause specific survival. An area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was computed. Similar strata were combined to construct the most parsimonious models. Results: A total of 20,712 patients diagnosed from 1973 to 2009 were included in this study. The mean follow up time (S.D.) was 54.2 (78.4) months. Some 2/3 of the patients were female. The mean (S.D.) age was 63 (13.8) years. SEER stage was the most predictive factor of outcome (ROC area of 0.71). 13.9% of the patients were un-staged and had risk of cause specific death of 61.3% that was higher than the 45.3% risk for the regional disease and lower than the 70.3% for metastatic disease. Sex, site, radiotherapy, and surgery had ROC areas of about 0.55-0.65. Rural residence and race contributed to socioeconomic disparity for treatment outcome. Radiotherapy was underused even with localized and regional stages when the intent was curative. This under use was most pronounced in older patients. Conclusions: Anatomic stage was predictive and useful in treatment selection. Under-staging may have contributed to poor outcome.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.353-356
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• 2016

Background: This study used receiver operating characteristic curve to analyze Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) for glassy cell carcinoma data to identify predictive models and potential disparities in outcome. Materials and Methods: This study analyzed socio-economic, staging and treatment factors. For risk modeling, each factor was fitted by a generalized linear model to predict the cause specific survival. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs) were computed. Similar strata were combined to construct the most parsimonious models. A random sampling algorithm was used to estimate modeling errors. Risk of glassy cell carcinoma death was computed for the predictors for comparison. Results: There were 79 patients included in this study. The mean follow up time (S.D.) was 37 (32.8) months. Female patients outnumbered males 4:1. The mean (S.D.) age was 54.4 (19.8) years. SEER stage was the most predictive factor of outcome (ROC area of 0.69). The risks of cause specific death were, respectively, 9.4% for localized, 16.7% for regional, 35% for the un-staged/others category, and 60% for distant disease. After optimization, separation between the regional and unstaged/others category was removed with a higher ROC area of 0.72. Several socio-economic factors had small but measurable effects on outcome. Radiotherapy had not been used in 90% of patients with regional disease. Conclusions: Optimized SEER stage was predictive and useful in treatment selection. Underuse of radiotherapy may have contributed to poor outcome.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.7
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• pp.85-93
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• 2020

In peer-to-peer (P2P) loan markets, as most lenders are unskilled and inexperienced ordinary individuals, it is important to know the characteristics of borrowers that significantly impact their repayment performance. This study investigates the effects and importance of borrowers' past repayment performance track record within the platform to identify its predictive power. To this end, I analyze the detailed loan repayment data from two leading P2P lending platforms in Korea using a Cox proportional hazard, multiple linear regression, and logit models. Furthermore, the predictive power of the factors proxied by borrowers' track records are evaluated through the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. As a result, it is found that the borrowers' past track record within the platform have the most important impact on the repayment performance of their current loans. In addition, this study also reveals that the borrowers' track record is much more predictive of their repayment performance than any other factor. The findings of this study emphasize that individual lenders must take into account the quality of borrowers' past transaction history when making a funding decision, and that platform operators should actively share the borrowers' past records within the markets with lenders.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.97-105
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• 1996

In this paper, an adaptive model predictive controller for nodinear processes using fuzzy model is proposed. Adaptive structure is implemented by recursive fuzzy modeling. The model and control law can be obtained the same as GPC, because the consequent parts of the fuzzy model comprise linear equations of input and output variables. The proposed Adaptive fuzzy model predictive controller (AFMPC) controls nonlinear process well due to the intrinsic nonlinearity of the fuzzy model. When AFMPC's output is variation in the process control input, it maintains zero steady-state offset for a constant reference input and has superior performance. The properties and performance of the proposed control scheme were examined with nonlinear plant by simulation.

• Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.453-462
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• 2016

This paper proposes a torque control method for surface mounted permanent magnetic synchronous motor (PMSM) driven by a 2-level voltage source driven inverter, which has fast torque response and small torque ripple. The proposed torque control method follows the finite control set model predictive control (FCS-MPC) strategy. A reference state is derived at each time step for the given time varying torque reference and the cost index is defined so that the tracking error for this reference state should be penalized. The choice of an optimal output voltage vector is made first from the 6 possible active voltage vectors of the 2-level voltage source inverter. Then a modulation factor for the chosen optimal voltage vector is obtained so that the torque ripple can be reduced further. It is shown that the proposed FCS-MPC control method yields fast torque tracking response and small torque ripple through simulation and experiments.

• The Journal of Korean Medicine
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• v.39 no.4
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• pp.16-29
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• 2018

Introduction: We aimed to investigate the predictive factors and optimal age for response to herbal medicine treatment for height gain in children. Methods: This retrospective chart review included 61 children (age range, 5-16 years) treated for height gain between 2011 and 2015. A predictive model was established by multiple linear regression analysis. Dependent variables were defined by the differences in percentile before and after herbal medicine treatment. The optimal cutoff value of patient age was determined by receiver operating curve analysis. Results : The age of initiation of herbal medicine therapy (p = 0.012) and administration of Forsythiae fructus (p = 0.002) were significant variables for treatment response. The adjusted R2 value was 0.231. The mean ages of the responder and non-responder groups were significantly different (p = 0.023). The optimal cutoff value of age for predicting treatment response was 9.75 years. Treatment response was better among children below 9.75 years of age. Conclusions: Patient age and administration of Forsythiae fructus were identified as determinants of response to herbal medicine treatment. Treatment of rhinitis and initiation of height gain treatment at an early age are critical for better response. These findings will provide fundamental data for further research.

• Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
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• v.48 no.2
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• pp.156-162
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• 2021

Objective: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the predictive capability of fasting-state measurements of glucose and insulin levels alone for abnormal glucose tolerance in women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). Methods: In total, 153 Korean women with PCOS were included in this study. The correlations between the 2-hour postload glucose (2-hr PG) level during the 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) and other parameters were evaluated using Pearson correlation coefficients and linear regression analysis. The predictive accuracy of fasting glucose and insulin levels and other fasting-state indices for assessing insulin sensitivity derived from glucose and insulin levels for abnormal glucose tolerance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results: Significant correlations were observed between the 2-hr PG level and most fasting-state parameters in women with PCOS. However, the area under the ROC curve values for each fasting-state parameter for predicting abnormal glucose tolerance were all between 0.5 and 0.7 in the study participants, which falls into the "less accurate" category for prediction. Conclusion: Fasting-state measurements of glucose and insulin alone are not enough to predict abnormal glucose tolerance in women with PCOS. A standard OGTT is needed to screen for impaired glucose tolerance and type 2 diabetes mellitus in women with PCOS.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.83 no.4
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• pp.537-549
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• 2022

In this paper, a novel multi-feature model predictive control (MPC) framework with real-time and adaptive performances is proposed for intelligent structural control in which some drawbacks of the algorithm including, complex control rule and non-optimality, are alleviated. Hence, Linear Programming (LP) is utilized to simplify the resulted control rule. Afterward, the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) is applied to the optimal and adaptive tuning of the LP weights independently at each time step. The stochastic control rule is also achieved using Kalman Filter (KF) to handle noisy measurements. The Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) is then adopted to develop a data-driven and real-time control algorithm. The efficiency of the developed algorithm is then demonstrated by numerical simulation of a twenty-story high-rise benchmark building subjected to earthquake excitations. The competency of the proposed method is proven from the aspects of optimality, stochasticity, and adaptivity compared to the KF-based MPC (KMPC) and constrained MPC (CMPC) algorithms in vibration suppression of building structures. The average value for performance indices in the near-field and far-field (El earthquakes demonstrates a reduction up to 38.3% and 32.5% compared with KMPC and CMPC, respectively.