• Title/Summary/Keyword: linear causality

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The Role of Remittances in Financial Development: Evidence from Nonlinear ARDL and Asymmetric Causality

  • MEHTA, Ahmed Muneeb;QAMRUZZAMAN, Md.;SERFRAZ, Ayesha;ALI, Asad
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.139-154
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    • 2021
  • This study's impetus is to explore fresh evidence to answer the question, i.e., whether remittances asymmetrically influence financial development in Bangladesh from 1975 to 2019. The study employs several tests, i.e., nonlinear unit root test, Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL), NARDL, and asymmetric causality test for establishing the pattern of association. Nonlinear unit root tests confirm that variables follow a nonlinear system of being stationary after the first difference. nonlinearity among variables is investigated by performing the BDS test and nonlinear OLS. Directional causality is investigated through both linear and nonlinear effects of remittance inflows by following the non-granger casualty test. The test statistics of Fpass and tBDM showed the Long-run cointegration in the empirical model and positive effect running from remittances inflow to financial development both in the long-run and short-run. Furthermore, the results of a standard Wald test divulge the presence of long-run and short-run asymmetry. Asymmetry causality test established unidirectional causality due to positive and negative shocks in remittances inflows to Bank-based financial development and feedback hypothesis hold for explaining causality between positive and negative shocks in remittance inflows and Stock-based financial development.

Information Arrival between Price Change and Trading Volume in Crude Palm Oil Futures Market: A Non-linear Approach

  • Go, You-How;Lau, Wee-Yeap
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.79-91
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    • 2016
  • This paper is the first of its kind using a non-linear approach based on cross-correlation function (CCF) to investigate the information arrival hypothesis in crude palm oil (CPO) futures market. Based on daily data from 1986 to 2010, our empirical results reveal that: First, the volume of volatility is not a proxy of information flow. Second, dependence causality running from current return to future volume in conditional variance exhibit an asymmetric pattern of time span with different signs of correlation between price and volume series. This finding indicates the presence of noise traders' hypothesis of price-volume interaction in CPO futures market. Both findings suggest that this futures market is weak-form inefficiency. In terms of investors' behavior, they tend to change their expectations on current return based on errors made in previous trade in generating abnormal volume in the subsequent period. As implied, it is advisable for the investors devise their future trading strategies according to time span and changes of return.

Dual-rate Digital Controller Design for Continuous-time Linear Systems

  • Park, Poo-Gyeon;Ko, Jeong-Wan
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2003.10a
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    • pp.468-472
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    • 2003
  • The lifting technique is a standard control procedure that is commonly applied to dual-rate systems, where a critical difficulty is that care must be taken so that the resulting equivalent system preserves the causality constraint between the control signal and the measured output. To overcome this difficulty, the most attractive result has been suggested by defining control time sequences as the union of sample and hold time sequences. However, the sacrifice of regular control period scheme results in some serious disadvantages; restrictions on the implementation to hardware and the corresponding inefficient control scheme. On the contrary, this paper proposes a novel dual-rate control technique, which redescribes the system as a control-rate-based system having regular control period and designs the controller, with no causality constraint, through Linear Matrix Inequality (LMI) formulation.

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Comparison of ICA-based and MUSIC-based Approaches Used for the Extraction of Source Time Series and Causality Analysis (뇌 신호원의 시계열 추출 및 인과성 분석에 있어서 ICA 기반 접근법과 MUSIC 기반 접근법의 성능 비교 및 문제점 진단)

  • Jung, Young-Jin;Kim, Do-Won;Lee, Jin-Young;Im, Chang-Hwan
    • Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.329-336
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    • 2008
  • Recently, causality analysis of source time series extracted from EEG or MEG signals is becoming of great importance in human brain mapping studies and noninvasive diagnosis of various brain diseases. Two approaches have been widely used for the analyses: one is independent component analysis (ICA), and the other is multiple signal classification (MUSIC). To the best of our knowledge, however, any comparison studies to reveal the difference of the two approaches have not been reported. In the present study, we compared the performance of the two different techniques, ICA and MUSIC, especially focusing on how accurately they can estimate and separate various brain electrical signals such as linear, nonlinear, and chaotic signals without a priori knowledge. Results of the realistic simulation studies, adopting directed transfer function (DTF) and Granger causality (GC) as measures of the accurate extraction of source time series, demonstrated that the MUSIC-based approach is more reliable than the ICA-based approach.

Granger Causality Test between ENSO and Winter Climate Variability over the Korean Peninsula (엘니뇨-남방진동과 한반도 겨울철 기후변동성의 그랜저 인과관계 검정)

  • Park, Chang-Hyun;Son, Seok-Woo;Choi, Jung
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.171-179
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    • 2018
  • The causal relationship between El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and winter climate variability in Korea is tested by analyzing Korea Meteorological Administration Automatic Synoptic Observing System datasets for the past 59 years. Consistent with previous studies, positive phase of ENSO (El Nino) tends to cause warmer temperature and heavier precipitation in Korea in early winter with three-week lead time. This causality is quantified by performing Granger causality test. It turns out that ENSO explains an additional 9.25% of the variance of early-winter temperature anomalies in Korea, beyond that already provided by temperature itself. Likewise, 22.18% additional information is gained to explain early-winter precipitation variance by considering ENSO. This result, which differs from simple lead-lag correlation analysis, suggests that ENSO needs to be considered in predicting early-winter surface climate variability in Korea.

Linear causality in moments from climate to international crop prices (국제곡물가격에 대한 기후의 고차 선형 적률 인과관계 연구)

  • Jeong, Kiho
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.67-74
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    • 2017
  • This paper analyzes the causal relationship from climate to international grain prices. Although climate is an important factor affecting the grain markets, it has been restrictively considered in previous studies analyzing the causal relationship of international grain prices. In this paper, monthly data from May 1987 to 2013 is used for the causal analysis in which the sea surface temperature (SST), a representative global climate variable, and the international prices of wheat, corn, and soybean, the world's three major crops, are considered. The test method is the parametric version of the nonparametric test for causality in high-order moments suggested by Nishiyama et al. (2011). The results show that the climate causes in the first moment the prices of all the three grains and causes in the second moment the prices of corn and soybean, but does not cause in the third moment any of the three grain prices.

Dynamic Modeling of Automotive Shock Absorbers Using Simple Nonlinear Models (단순 비선형 모델을 이용한 자동차 충격흡수기의 동특성 모델링 기법 연구)

  • 한형석;서정원;노규석;허승진;김기훈
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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    • v.11 no.5
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    • pp.156-162
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    • 2003
  • The shock absorber is a part having a direct influence on the ride comfort, stability and dynamic load prediction of a vehicle. Thus, a rationally modeled shock absorber should be required in the dynamic analysis of vehicles. This thesis presents a modified model, based on Worden's hyperbolic tangent function, in order to fit experimental data on the velocity-damping force of a shock absorber. The hyperbolic tangent function correctly indicates the characteristics of a shock absorber, and has the advantage of containing physical causality. To evaluate the method, comparative evaluations of the linear model, the 5th polynomial model and Worden's model were carried out. The function presented in this paper is not only simple but also makes it possible to estimate the function coefficients easily and visually. In addition, it has the advantage of containing physical causality. Lastly, it effectively models the damping force of a shock absorber.

Damping Force Modeling of Shock Absorbers Using Hyperbolic tangent (Hyperbolic tangent를 이용한 충격 흡수기 감쇠력 모델 연구)

  • 서정원;한형석;노규석;허승진;김기훈
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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    • 2003.06a
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    • pp.1479-1482
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    • 2003
  • The shock absorber is a part having a direct influence on the ride comfort, stability and dynamic load prediction of a vehicle. Thus, a rationally modeled shock absorber should be required in the dynamic analysis of vehicles. This thesis presents a modified model, based on Worden's hyperbolic tangent function, in order to fit experimental data on the velocity-damping force of a shock absorber. The hyperbolic tangent function correctly indicates the characteristics of a shock absorber. and has the advantage of containing physical causality. To evaluate the method, comparative evaluations of the linear model. the 5th polynomial model and Worden's model were carried out. The function presented in this paper is not only simple but also makes it possible to estimate the function coefficients easily and visually. In addition, it has the advantage of containing physical causality. Lastly, it effectively models the damping force of a shock absorber.

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Impact of Blockchain Technology on Maritime Transport in the Shipping Industry

  • Byun, Sang-phil;Oh, Jeong-Hun
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.53-61
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    • 2021
  • Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to assess the empirical evidence that shows blockchain technology has been a significant contributor to the growth of maritime transport in the shipping industry. Design/methodology/approach - Employing a generalized linear model using data from 2010 to 2019, this paper presents empirical evidence to demonstrate the positive impact of the adoption of blockchain technology on the maritime transport industry. Findings - Results from Granger causality tests confirm that there is a positive unidirectional causality from blockchain technology to maritime transport. This paper also demonstrates the positive effects of information technology (IT) and GDP growth on maritime transport. On the other hand, maritime transport is negatively influenced by the tax burden. Research implications or Originality - The results of this paper suggest a potential sustainable development strategy for the maritime transport industry involving the redirection of economic resources toward blockchain technology. Adopting other forms of IT and reducing the tax burden are also useful strategies for the development of the industry.

Estimation of the Spillovers during the Global Financial Crisis (글로벌 금융위기 동안 전이효과에 대한 추정)

  • Lee, Kyung-Hee;Kim, Kyung-Soo
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.17-37
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the global spillover effects through the existence of linear and nonlinear causal relationships between the US, European and BRIC financial markets after the period from the introduction of the Euro, the financial crisis and the subsequent EU debt crisis in 2007~2010. Although the global spillover effects of the financial crisis are well described, the nature of the volatility effects and the spread mechanisms between the US, Europe and BRIC stock markets have not been systematically examined. A stepwise filtering methodology was introduced to investigate the dynamic linear and nonlinear causality, which included a vector autoregressive regression model and a multivariate GARCH model. The sample in this paper includes the post-Euro period, and also includes the financial crisis and the Eurozone financial and sovereign crisis. The empirical results can have many implications for the efficiency of the BRIC stock market. These results not only affect the predictability of this market, but can also be useful in future research to quantify the process of financial integration in the market. The interdependence between the United States, Europe and the BRIC can reveal significant implications for financial market regulation, hedging and trading strategies. And the findings show that the BRIC has been integrated internationally since the sub-prime and financial crisis erupted in the United States, and the spillover effects have become more specific and remarkable. Furthermore, there is no consistent evidence supporting the decoupling phenomenon. Some nonlinear causality persists even after filtering during the investigation period. Although the tail distribution dependence and higher moments may be significant factors for the remaining interdependencies, this can be largely explained by the simple volatility spillover effects in nonlinear causality.