• Title/Summary/Keyword: likelihood of failure

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Zombie Firms and Performance of R&D Support Programs for Small and Medium Enterprises (한계기업과 중소기업 R&D 지원 성과)

  • Kam, Ju-sik;Jung, Taehyun
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.1474-1492
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    • 2018
  • This study empirically analyzes the direct effects of government support for SMEs (project success) and indirect effects (sales growth) focusing on the differences between financially difficult firms (so-called 'zombie' firms) and 'normal' firms. If the zombie firm has a problem in technology development (success of the project) and the economic resilience capability (sales growth), then excluding them from the government's R&D support programs would enhance the overall efficiency of the programs. If not, government R&D could complement the market failure and play a positive role in revitalizing marginal firms. In this study, we collected data about 7,575 firms who participated in seven government R&D programs in 2013 and 2014. As a result of the logistic regression analysis, we did not find evidence that the likelihood of success for zombie firms was lower than that for the normal firms. However, the tendency of sales growth after the project was smaller for the zombie firms than for the normal firms. For zombie firms, we also found that firms that succeeded in the project were more likely to increase sales than those that failed.

A Biomechanical Analysis of Various Surgical Procedures for Osteonecrosis of the Femoral Head using a Finite Element Method (유한요소법을 이용한 대퇴 골두내 무혈성 괴사증의 다양한 수술적 기법에 대한 생체역학적 분석)

  • Kim, J.S.;Lee, S.J.;Shin, J.W.;Kim, Y.S.;Choi, J.B.;Kim, Y.S.
    • Proceedings of the KOSOMBE Conference
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    • v.1997 no.05
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    • pp.374-378
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    • 1997
  • Operative procedures such as core drilling with and without fibular bone grafting have been recognized as the treatment methods for osteonecrosis of femoral head(ONFH) by delaying or preventing the collapse of the femoral head. In addition, core drilling with cementation using polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) has been proposed recently as another surgical method. However, no definite treatment modality has been found yet while operative procedures remain controversial to many clinicians In this study, a finite element method(FEM) was employed to analyze and compare various surgical procedures of ONFH to provide a biomechanical insight. This study was based upon biomechanical findings which suggest stress concentration within the femoral head may facilitate the progression of the necrosis and eventual collapse. For this purpose, five anatomically relevant hip models were constructed in three dimensions : they were (1) intact(Type I), (2) necrotic(Type II), (3) core drilled only(Type III), (4) core drilled with fibular bone graft(Type IV), and (5) core drilled with cementation(Type V). Physiologically relevant loading were simulated. Resulting stresses were calculated. Our results showed that the volumetric percentage subjected to high stress in the necrotic cancellous region was greatest in the core drilled only model(Type III), followed by the necrotic(Type II), the bone graft (Type IV), and the cemented(Type V) models. Von Mises stresses at the tip of the graft(Type IV) was found to be twice more than those of cemented core(Type V) indicating the likelihood of the implant failure. In addition, stresses within the cemented core(Type V) were more evenly distributed and relatively lower than within the fibular bone graft(Type IV). In conclusion, our biomechanical analyses have demonstrated that the bone graft method(Type IV) and the cementation method(Type V) are both superior to the core decompression method(Type III) by reducing the high stress regions within the necrotic cancellous bone. Also it was found that the core region filled with PMMA(Type V) provides far smoother transfer of physiological load without causing the concentration of malignant stresses which may lead to the failure than with the fibular bone graft(Type IV). Therefore, considering the above results along with the degree of difficulties and risk of infection involved with preparation of the fibular bone graft, the cementation method appears to be a promising surgical treatment for the early stage of osteonecrosis of the femoral head.

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Game Elements Balancing using Deep Learning in Artificial Neural Network (딥러닝이 적용된 게임 밸런스에 관한 연구 게임 기획 방법론의 관점으로)

  • Jeon, Joonhyun
    • Journal of the HCI Society of Korea
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.65-73
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    • 2018
  • Game balance settings are crucial to game design. Game balancing must take into account a large amount of numerical values, configuration data, and the relationship between elements. Once released and served, a game - even for a balanced game - often requires calibration according to the game player's preference. To achieve sustainability, game balance needs adjustment while allowing for small changes. In fact, from the producers' standpoint, game balance issue is a critical success factor in game production. Therefore, they often invest much time and capital in game design. However, if such a costly game cannot provide players with an appropriate level of difficulty, the game is more likely to fail. On the contrary, if the game successfully identifies the game players' propensity and performs self-balancing to provide appropriate difficulty levels, this will significantly reduce the likelihood of game failure, while at the same time increasing the lifecycle of the game. Accordingly, if a novel technology for game balancing is developed using artificial intelligence (AI) that offers personalized, intelligent, and customized service to individual game players, it would bring significant changes to the game production system.

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Modeling of the Failure Rates and Estimation of the Economical Replacement Time of Water Mains Based on an Individual Pipe Identification Method (개별관로 정의 방법을 이용한 상수관로 파손율 모형화 및 경제적 교체시기의 산정)

  • Park, Su-Wan;Lee, Hyeong-Seok;Bae, Cheol-Ho;Kim, Kyu-Lee
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.42 no.7
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    • pp.525-535
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    • 2009
  • In this paper a heuristic method for identifying individual pipes in water pipe networks to determine specific sections of the pipes that need to be replaced due to deterioration. An appropriate minimum pipe length is determined by selecting the pipe length that has the greatest variance of the average cumulative break number slopes among the various pipe lengths used. As a result, the minimum pipe length for the case study water network is determined as 4 m and a total of 39 individual pipe IDs are obtained. The economically optimal replacement times of the individual pipe IDs are estimated by using the threshold break rate of an individual pipe ID and the pipe break trends models for which the General Pipe Break Prediction Model(Park and Loganathan, 2002) that can incorporate the linear, exponential, and in-between of the linear and exponetial failure trends and the ROCOFs based on the modified time scale(Park et al., 2007) are used. The maximum log-likelihoods of the log-linear ROCOF and Weibull ROCOF estimated for the break data of a pipe are compared and the ROCOF that has a greater likelihood is selected for the pipe of interest. The effects of the social costs of a pipe break on the optimal replacement time are also discussed.

A Study on Assessment of Fatigue Durability for Composite Torque Link of Landing Gear (착륙장치 복합재 토크링크 피로내구성 평가에 대한 연구)

  • Kwon, Jung-Ho;Kang, Dae-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.38 no.6
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    • pp.537-546
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    • 2010
  • This research work contributed to a study for the procedure and methodology to assess the fatigue durability for a composite torque link of helicopter landing gear, which was newly developed and fabricated by the resin transfer moulding technique to interchange with metal component. The simulated load spectrum anticipated to be applied to the torque link during its operation life was generated using an advanced method of probabilistic random process, and the fatigue durability was evaluated by the strength degradation approach on the basis of material test data. The full scale fatigue test was also performed and compared with the analysis results.

The Comparative Study for the Property of Learning Effect based on Delay ed Software S-Shaped Reliability Model (지연된 소프트웨어 S-형태 신뢰성모형에 의존된 학습효과 특성에 관한 비교 연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul;Shin, Hyun-Cheul
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.73-80
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    • 2011
  • In this study, software products developed in the course of testing, software managers in the process of testing software and tools for effective learning effects perspective has been studied using the NHPP software. The delayed software S-shaped reliability model applied to distribution was based on finite failure NHPP. Software error detection techniques known in advance, but influencing factors for considering the errors found automatically and learning factors, by prior experience, to find precisely the error factor setting up the testing manager are presented comparing the problem. As a result, the learning factor is greater than automatic error that is generally efficient model could be confirmed. This paper, numerical example of applying using time between failures and parameter estimation using maximum likelihood estimation method, after the efficiency of the data through trend analysis model selection were efficient using the mean square error and $R^2$(coefficient of determination).

The Study of NHPP Software Reliability Model from the Perspective of Learning Effects (학습 효과 기법을 이용한 NHPP 소프트웨어 신뢰도 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul;Shin, Hyun-Cheul
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.25-32
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    • 2011
  • In this study, software products developed in the course of testing, software managers in the process of testing software test and test tools for effective learning effects perspective has been studied using the NHPP software. The Weibull distribution applied to distribution was based on finite failure NHPP. Software error detection techniques known in advance, but influencing factors for considering the errors found automatically and learning factors, by prior experience, to find precisely the error factor setting up the testing manager are presented comparing the problem. As a result, the learning factor is greater than automatic error that is generally efficient model could be confirmed. This paper, a numerical example of applying using time between failures and parameter estimation using maximum likelihood estimation method, after the efficiency of the data through trend analysis model selection were efficient using the mean square error and $R_{sq}$.

Comparative Evaluation on the Cost Analysis of Software Development Model Based on Weibull Lifetime Distribution (와이블 수명분포에 근거한 소프트웨어 개발모형의 비용 분석에 관한 비교 평가)

  • Bae, Hyo-Jeong
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.193-200
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    • 2022
  • In this study, the finite-failure NHPP software reliability model was applied to the software development model based on the Weibull lifetime distribution (Goel-Okumoto, Rayleigh, Type-2 Gumbe), which is widely used in the software reliability field, and then the cost attributes were compared and evaluated. For this study, failure time data detected during normal operation of the software system were collected and used, the most-likelihood estimation (MLE) method was applied to the parameter estimation of the proposed model, and the calculation of the nonlinear equation was solved using the binary method. As a result, first, in the software development model, when the cost of testing per unit time and the cost of removing a single defect increased, the cost increased but the release time did not change, and when the cost of repairing failures detected during normal system operation increased, the cost increased and the release time was also delayed. Second, as a result of comprehensive comparative analysis of the proposed models, it was found that the Type-2 Gumble model was the most efficient model because the development cost was lower and the release time point was relatively faster than the Rayleigh model and the Goel-Okumoto basic model. Third, through this study, the development cost properties of the Weibull distribution model were newly evaluated, and the analyzed data is expected to be utilized as design data that enables software developers to explore the attributes of development cost and release time.

Intermediate Principal Stress Dependency in Strength of Transversely Isotropic Mohr-Coulomb Rock (평면이방성 Mohr-Coulomb 암석 강도의 중간주응력 의존성)

  • Lee, Youn-Kyou
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.383-391
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    • 2013
  • A number of true triaxial tests on rock samples have been conducted since the late 1960 and their results strongly suggest that the intermediate principal stress has a considerable effect on rock strength. Based on these experimental evidence, various 3-D rock failure criteria accounting for the effect of the intermediate principal stress have been proposed. Most of the 3-D failure criteria, however, are focused on the phenomenological description of the rock strength from the true triaxial tests, so that the associated strength parameters have little physical meaning. In order to confirm the likelihood that the intermediate principal stress dependency of rock strength is related to the presence of weak planes and their distribution to the preferred orientation, true triaxial tests are simulated with the transversely isotropic rock model. The conventional Mohr-Coulomb criterion is extended to its anisotropic version by incorporating the concept of microstructure tensor. With the anisotropic Mohr-Coulomb criterion, the critical plane approach is applied to calculate the strength of the transversely isotropic rock model and the orientation of the fracture plane. This investigation hints that the spatial distribution of microstructural planes with respect to the principal stress triad is closely related to the intermediate principal stress dependency of rock strength.

The Comparative Study for Property of Learning Effect based on Software Reliability Model using Doubly Bounded Power Law Distribution (이중 결합 파우어 분포 특성을 이용한 유한고장 NHPP모형에 근거한 소프트웨어 학습효과 비교 연구)

  • Kim, Hee Cheul;Kim, Kyung-Soo
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.71-78
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    • 2013
  • In this study, software products developed in the course of testing, software managers in the process of testing software test and test tools for effective learning effects perspective has been studied using the NHPP software. The doubly bounded power law distribution model makeup Weibull distribution applied to distribution was based on finite failure NHPP. Software error detection techniques known in advance, but influencing factors for considering the errors found automatically and learning factors, by prior experience, to find precisely the error factor setting up the testing manager are presented comparing the problem. As a result, the learning factor is greater than automatic error that is generally efficient model could be confirmed. This paper, a numerical example of applying using time between failures and parameter estimation using maximum likelihood estimation method, after the efficiency of the data through trend analysis model selection were efficient using the mean square error and $R^2$.