• Title/Summary/Keyword: likelihood displacement

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Analysis of Factors influencing Severity of Motorcycle Accidents using Ordered Probit Model (순서형 프로빗모형에 의한 이륜차 사고심각도의 영향요인 분석)

  • Choi, Jung Woo;Kum, Ki Jung
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.143-154
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    • 2014
  • PURPOSES : This study drew factors affecting motorcycle accidents in Seoul by severity using an ordered probit model and aimed to analyze and verify the drawn influence factors. METHODS : As the severity of the accidents could be classified into three types (fatal injury, serious injury and minor injury), this study drew the factors affecting accidents by a comparative analysis employing an ordered probit model, removed the variables that would not secure significance sequentially to construct a model with high explanatory power regarding the factors affecting the severity of motorcycle accidents, and calculated the marginal effect of each factor to understand the degree of each factor's impact on the severity. First, Model 1 put in all variables; Model 2 was constructed by removing the variables of the road surface conditions that could not meet the level of significance (p=0.608); Model 3 was constructed by removing gender variable (p=0.423); and Model 4 was constructed finally by removing age variable (p=0.320). RESULTS : As a result of an analysis, statistically significant variables were time of occurrence, type of accident, road alignment and motorcycle displacement, and it turned out that the impacts on the severity were in the following order: a road alignment of left downhill, the type of motorcycle-to-vehicle accidents and a road alignment of a flatland on the left. The significance of the models was tested using the likelihood ratio, the level of significance and suitability statistics about them, and as a result of the test, the significance level and suitability of the constructed models were all excellent. In addition, the model accuracy indicating the accuracy of a predicted value compared to that of the value actually observed was 70.3% for minor injury; 70.1% for serious injury; and 68.6% for fatal injury, and the overall accuracy was 70.2%, which was very high. CONCLUSIONS : As a result of an analysis of motorcycle accidents in Seoul through the ordered probit model and the marginal effect, it turned out that their severity increased in nighttime accidents as compared to daytime ones and gradually increased in the order of motorcycle-to-vehicle accidents, motorcycle-to-person ones and the ones involving motorcycle only. As a result of an analysis, the severity of accidents in road alignments of left downhill, left flatland and straight downhill increased as compared to those in a road alignment of straight flatland and that the severity of accidents of motorcycles with a displacement larger than 50cc was higher than that of those with a displacement smaller than 50cc.

Seismic Fragility Analysis of RC Bridge Piers in Terms of Seismic Ductility (철근콘크리트 교각의 연성 능력에 따른 지진취약도)

  • Chung, Young-Soo;Park, Chang-Young;Park, Ji-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.91-102
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    • 2007
  • Through lessons in recent earthquakes, the bridge engineering community recognizes the need for new seismic design methodologies based on the inelastic structural performance of RC bridge structures. This study represents results of performance-based fragility analysis of reinforced concrete (RC) bridge. Monte carlo simulation is performed to study nonlinear dynamic responses of RC bridge. Two-parameter log-normal distribution function is used to represent the fragility curves. These two-parameters, referred to as fragility parameters, are estimated by the traditional maximum likelihood procedure, which is treated each event of RC bridge pier damage as a realization of Bernoulli experiment. In order to formulate the fragility curves, five different damage states are described by two practical factors: the displacement and curvature ductility, which are mostly influencing on the seismic behavior of RC bridge piers. Five damage states are quantitatively assessed in terms of these seismic ductilities on the basis of numerous experimental results of RC bridge piers. Thereby, the performance-based fragility curves of RC bridge pier are provided in this paper. This approach can be used in constructing the fragility curves of various bridge structures and be applied to construct the seismic hazard map.

Estimation of Potential Risk and Numerical Simulations of Landslide Disaster based on UAV Photogrammetry (무인 항공사진측량 정보를 기반으로 한 산사태 수치해석 및 위험도 평가)

  • Choi, Jae Hee;Choi, Bong Jin;Kim, Nam Gyun;Lee, Chang Woo;Seo, Jun Pyo;Jun, Byong Hee
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.41 no.6
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    • pp.675-686
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    • 2021
  • This study investigated the ground displacement occurring in a slope below a waste-rock dumping site and estimated the likelihood of a disaster due to a landslide. To start with, photogrammetry was conducted by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to investigate the size and extent of the ground displacement. From April 2019 to July 2020, the average error rate of the five UAV surveys was 0.011-0.034 m, and an elevation change of 2.97 m occurred due to the movement of the soil layer. Only some areas of the slope showedelevation change, and this was believed to be due to thegroundwater generated during rainfall rather than the effect of the waste-rock load at the top. Sensitivity analysis for LS-RAPID simulation was performed, and the simulation results were compared and analyzed by applying a digital elevation model (DEM) and a digital surface model (DSM)as terrain data with 10 m, 5 m, and 4 m grids. When data with high spatial resolution were used, the extent of the sedimentation of landslide material tended to be excessively expanded in the DEM. In contrast, in the result of applying a DSM, which reflects the topography in detail, the diffusion range was not significantly affected even when the spatial resolution was changed, and the sedimentation behavior according to the river shape could be accurately expressed. As a result, it was concluded that applying a DSM rather than a DEM does not significantly expand the sedimentation range, and results that reflect the site situation well can be obtained.

Seismic Fragility of Underground Utility Tunnels (지하 공동구 시설물의 지진취약도 분석)

  • Lee, Deuk-Bok;Lee, Chang-Soo;Shin, Dea-Sub
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.413-419
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    • 2016
  • Damage of infrastructures by an earthquake causes the secondary damage through the world at large more than the damage of the structures themselves. Amomg them, underground utility tunnel structures comes under the special life line: communication, gas, electricity and etc. and it has a need to evaluate its fragility to an earthquake exactly. Therefore, the destruction ability according to peak ground acceleration of earthquakes for the underground utility tunnels is evaluated in this paper. As an input ground motion for evaluating seismic fragilities, real earthquakes and artificial seismic waves which could be generated in the Korean peninsula are used. And as a seismic analysis method, response displacement method and time history analyzing method are used. An limit state which determines whether destruction is based on the bending moment and shear deformation. A method used to deduct seismic fragility curve is method of maximum likelihood and the distribution function is assumed to the log normal distribution. It could evaluate the damage of underground utility tunnels to an earthquake and could be applied as basic data for seismic design of underground utility tunnel structures.

Non-Parametric Texture Extraction using Neural Network (신경 회로망을 사용한 비 파라메테 텍스춰 추출)

  • Jeon, Dong-Keun;Hong, Sun-Pyo;Song, Ja-Yoon;Kim, Sang-Jin;Kim, Ki-Jun;Kim, Song-Chol
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.14 no.2E
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    • pp.5-11
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    • 1995
  • In this paper, a method using a neural network was applied for the purpose of urilizing spatial features. The adopted model of neural network the three-layered architecture, and the training algorithm is the back-propagation algorithm. Co-occurrence matrix which is generated from original imge was used for imput pattern to the neural network in order to tolerate variations of patterns like rotation of displacement. Co-occurrence matrix is explained in appendix. To evaluate this method, classification was executed with this method and texture features method over the city area and sand area, which cannot be separated with the conventional method mentioned aboved. In the results of this method and texture features proposed by Haralick the method using texture features was separation rate of 67%~89%. On the contrary, the method using neural network proposed in this research was stable and high separation rate of 80%~98%.

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Comparison of the seismic performance of Reinforced Concrete-Steel (RCS) frames with steel and reinforced concrete moment frames in low, mid, and high-rise structures

  • Jalal Ghezeljeh;Seyed Rasoul Mirghaderi;Sina Kavei
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.249-263
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    • 2024
  • This article presents a comparative analysis of seismic behavior in steel-beam reinforced concrete column (RCS) frames versus steel and reinforced concrete frames. The study evaluates the seismic response and collapse behavior of RCS frames of varying heights through nonlinear modeling. RCS, steel, and reinforced concrete special moment frames are considered in three height categories: 5, 10, and 20 stories. Two-dimensional frames are extracted from the three-dimensional structures, and nonlinear static analyses are conducted in the OpenSEES software to evaluate seismic response in post-yield regions. Incremental dynamic analysis is then performed on models, and collapse conditions are compared using fragility curves. Research findings indicate that the seismic intensity index in steel frames is 1.35 times greater than in RCS frames and 1.14 times greater than in reinforced concrete frames. As the number of stories increases, RCS frames exhibit more favorable collapse behavior compared to reinforced concrete frames. RCS frames demonstrate stable behavior and maintain capacity at high displacement levels, with uniform drift curves and lower damage levels compared to steel and reinforced concrete frames. Steel frames show superior strength and ductility, particularly in taller structures. RCS frames outperform reinforced concrete frames, displaying improved collapse behavior and higher capacity. Incremental Dynamic Analysis results confirm satisfactory collapse capacity for RCS frames. Steel frames collapse at higher intensity levels but perform better overall. RCS frames have a higher collapse capacity than reinforced concrete frames. Fragility curves show a lower likelihood of collapse for steel structures, while RCS frames perform better with an increase in the number of stories.

The Comparative Kinematic Analysis of a Volleyball Spike Serve (배구 스파이크 서브 동작의 운동학적 비교 분석)

  • Park, Jong-Chul;Back, Jin-Ho;Lee, Jin-Taek
    • Korean Journal of Applied Biomechanics
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.671-680
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    • 2009
  • We performed a study to obtain kinematic data on the characteristics of spike serving techniques used by volleyball players, including other basic data that will be useful for in-field applications. We used three-dimensional videography to compare good tough serves and serve errors. The subjects were 3 left attackers whose spike serves were videographed (60 fileds/s). The three-dimensional coordinates were calculated using the direct linear transformation method and then analyzed using the Kwon 3D software program version 3.1. There was no difference in time elapsed. However, the vertical displacement of the center of body mass(CM) differed between the 2 types of serves: in successful serves, the CM tended to be lower, as did the maximum ball height at the time of hitting. Further, the higher the level of the hitting hand was at the moment of impact, the higher was the likelihood of scoring points. In good serves, the players tended to accelerate their CM movement just before jumping to hit the ball and descend rapidly at the moment of hitting. The hand speed along with ball velocity during the impact was proven to be higher in successful serves. Moreover, in successful serves, the shoulder angles increased to a greater extent while the elbow angles were maintained constant. This possibly resulted in faster and more precise serves. An important observation was that the angle of trunk inclination during the jump did not increase with the swing of the shoulders, muscle tendon complex.