• Title/Summary/Keyword: lifetime models

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Comparison of Genetic Parameter Estimates of Total Sperm Cells of Boars between Random Regression and Multiple Trait Animal Models

  • Oh, S.-H.;See, M.T.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.21 no.7
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    • pp.923-927
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    • 2008
  • The objective of this study was to compare random regression model and multiple trait animal model estimates of the (co) variance of total sperm cells over the active lifetime of AI boars. Data were provided by Smithfield Premium Genetics (Rose Hill, NC). Total number of records and animals for the random regression model were 19,629 and 1,736, respectively. Data for multiple trait animal model analyses were edited to include only records produced at 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, and 27 months of age. For the multiple trait method estimates of genetic and residual variance for total sperm cells were heterogeneous among age classifications. When comparing multiple trait method to random regression, heritability estimates were similar except for total sperm cells at 24 months of age. The multiple trait method also resulted in higher estimates of heritability of total sperm cells at every age when compared to random regression results. Random regression analysis provided more detail with regard to changes of variance components with age. Random regression methods are the most appropriate to analyze semen traits as they are longitudinal data measured over the lifetime of boars.

Storage Life Estimation of Magnesium Flare Material for 81 mm Illuminating Projectile (81 mm 조명탄용 마그네슘계 조명제 저장수명 예측)

  • Back, Seungjun;Son, Youngkap;Lim, Sunghwan;Myung, Inho
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.267-274
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    • 2015
  • It is necessary to both analyze root-cause of non-conformance of effective illumination time to the specification, and estimate the storage lifetime for 81 mm illuminating projectile stockpiled over 10 years. In this paper, aging mechanism of magnesium flare material due to long-term storage was supposed, and two-stage tests, pre-test and main test based on accelerated degradation tests were performed. Field storage environment of moistureproof was set up, and illumination times in the accelerated degradation tests for temperatures 60 and $70^{\circ}C$ were measured. Then, storage reliability of the projectile was estimated through analyzing the measured data and applying distribution-based degradation models to the data. The $B_{10}$ life by which 10 % of a population of the projectiles will have failed at storage temperature of $25^{\circ}C$ was estimated about 7 years.

Probabilistic Analysis of Lifetime Extreme Live Loads of Multi-Story Columns (고층기둥 축하중의 사용기간 최대값에 대한 확률론적 분석)

  • 김상효;박흥석
    • Computational Structural Engineering
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.113-118
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    • 1992
  • The live loads acting on structures are generally computed in terms of equivalent uniformly distributed loads for the simplicity in design process. The loads, therefore, tend to decrease with increasing influence area in both load intensity and variance. Since multi-story column loads result from accumulation of loadings action on several different floors, its influence area becomes wider and lifetime maximum decreases. In the design codes proposing the design loads according to types of structural members(i.e., slabs, beams, columns), rather than the change of influence area, some proper reduction factors are given for columns which support more than one floor. Using the live load models developed for columns supporting single floor, in this study, the probabilistic characteristics of multi-story column loads are analyzed. In addition reduction factors given for multistory columns in current practice are calibrated.

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A CLV (Customer Lifetime Value) model in the wireless telecommunication industry

  • Hyunseok Hwang;Kim, Suyeon;Euiho Suh
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.187-190
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    • 2003
  • Since the early 1980s, the concept of relationship management in marketing area has gained its importance. Acquiring and retaining the most profitable customers are serious concerns of a company to perform more targeted marketing campaigns. For effective CRM (Customer Relationship Management), it is important to gather information on customer value. Many researches have been performed to calculate customer value based on CLV (Customer Lifetime Value). It, however, has some limitations. It is difficult to consider the churn of customers, because the previous prediction models have focused mainly on expected future cash flow derived from customers'past profit contribution. In this paper we suggest a CLV model considering past profit contribution, potential benefit, and churn probability of a customer. We also cover a framework for analyzing customer value and segmenting customers based on their value. Customer value is classified into three categories: current value, potential value and customer loyalty. Customers are segmented according to the three categories of customer value. A case study on calculating customer value of a wireless communication company will be illustrated.

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Modeling and Analysis of Accelerated Degradation Testing Data for a Solid State Drive (SSD) (Solid State Drive(SSD)에 대한 가속열화시험 데이터 모델링 및 분석)

  • Mun, Byeong Min;Choi, Young Jin;Ji, You Min;Lee, Yong Jung;Lee, Keun Woo;Na, Han Joo;Yang, Joong Seob;Bae, Suk Joo
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.33-39
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: Accelerated degradation tests can be effective in assessing product reliability when degradation leading to failure can be observed. This article proposes an accelerated degradation test model for highly reliable solid state drives (SSDs). Methods: We suggest a nonlinear mixed-effects (NLME) model to degradation data for SSDs. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate lifetime distribution in accelerated degradation testing data. This simulation is performed by generating random samples from the assumed NLME model. Conclusion: We apply the proposed method to degradation data collected from SSDs. The derived power model is shown to be much better at fitting the degradation data than other existing models. Finally, the Monte Carlo simulation based on the NLME model provides reasonable results in lifetime estimation.

Bayesian Model Selection of Lifetime Models using Fractional Bayes Factor with Type ?$\pm$ Censored Data (제2종 중단모형에서 FRACTIONAL BAYES FACTOR를 이용한 신뢰수명 모형들에 대한 베이지안 모형선택)

  • 강상길;김달호;이우동
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.427-436
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    • 2000
  • In this paper, we consider a Bayesian model selection problem of lifetime distributions using fractional Bayes factor with noninformative prior when type II censored data are given. For a given type II censored data, we calculate the posterior probability of exponential, Weibull and lognormal distributions and select the model which gives the highest posterior probability. Our proposed methodology is explained and applied to real data and simulated data.

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A Study on Accelerated Photo-Degradation Test for Lifetime Estimation of Ink-jet Ink (잉크젯 잉크의 수명예측을 위한 광열화 가속시험법에 관한 연구)

  • Koo, Hyun-Jin;Cho, Hang-Won;Ji, Byung-Chul
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.154-162
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    • 2015
  • We have performed accelerated photo-degradation test using a 10-Sun level high irradiance $Weather-Ometer^{(R)}$ (10-Sun Ci5000) in an attempt to study acceleration and correlation between accelerated and service conditions for ink-jet ink. The accelerated test was used to predict lifetimes of ink-jet ink through the calculation of scaling factor for intensity of irradiance and duration of usage combined with estimation of lifetime distribution and inverse power model as a life-stress model. The lifetimes and acceleration factors for foreign and domestic inks were compared with each other. The results showed that the failure mechanisms and life-stress models for ink-jet ink were different among the color of ink which means that we might be in need of further study by color of inks.

Probabilistic Analysis of Lifetime Extreme Live toads of Multi-Story Columns (고층기둥 축하중의 사용기간 최대값 분석)

  • 김상효;조형근;배규웅;박홍석
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 1990.10a
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    • pp.69-72
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    • 1990
  • The live loads acting on structures are generally computed in terms of equivalent uniformly distributed loads for the simplicity in design process. The loads, therefore, tend to decrease with increasing influence area in both load intensity and variance. Since multi-story column loads result from accumulation of loadings acting on several different floors, its influence area becomes wider and lifetime maximum decreases. In the design codes proposing the design loads for types of structural members (i.e., slabs, beams, columns), not for tile change of influence area, some proper reduction factors are given for columns which support more than one floor. Using the live load models developed for colons supporting single floor, in this study, the probabilistic characteristics of multi-story column loads are analyzed. In addition reduction factors given for multi-story columns in current practice are calibrated.

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A concept of multi -layered database for management and maintenance of civil infrastructures (사회기반 시설물의 유지관리를 위한 multi-layered 데이터베이스 개념)

  • Kim, Bong-Geun;Yi, Jin-Hoon;Lee, Sang-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 2007.04a
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    • pp.725-730
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    • 2007
  • A framework of multi layered database is proposed for the integrated operation of civil infrastructure information in this study. The multi-layered database is a logically integrated database composed of standardized information layers. The framework of multi-layered database is defined by three axes, national assets, lifetime, and data levels. The axis of national assets indicates civil infrastructures such as bridges, dams, tunnels and power plants that can be considered as national key structures. The axes of lifetime and data levels indicate the standardized information layers generated from the life-phase of civil infrastructure and the priority of data in the information layers, respectively. The standardized information layers are basically composed of reusable data sets defined by information models. A prototype of standard database for steel bridges is constructed based on the framework as a proof of concept. Demonstration examples such as data consistency check and automatic generation of a FEA model show that the proposed concept can assure the sustainable interoperability of civil infrastructure information as well as design information of steel bridges.

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A Comparison of Reliability Factors of Software Reliability Model Following Lifetime Distribution Dependent on Pareto and Erlang Shape Parameters (파레토 및 어랑 형상모수에 의존한 수명분포를 따르는 소프트웨어 신뢰성 모형에 대한 신뢰도 특성요인 비교 연구)

  • Kim, Hee Cheul;Moon, Song Chul
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2017
  • Software reliability is one of the most elementary and important problems in software development In order to find the software failure occurrence, the instantaneous failure rate function in the Poisson process can have a constant, incremental or decreasing tendency independently of the failure time. In this study, we compared the reliability performance of the software reliability model using the parameters of Pareto life distribution with the intensity decreasing pattern and the shape parameter of Erlang life distribution with the intensity increasing and decreasing pattern in the software product testing. In order to identify the software failure environment, the parametric estimation was applied to the maximum likelihood estimation method. Therefore, in this paper, we compare and evaluate software reliability by applying software failure time data. The reliability of the Erlang and Pareto life models is shown to be higher than that of the Pareto lifetime distribution model when the shape parameter is higher and the Erlang model is more reliable when the shape parameter is higher. Through this study, the software design department will be able to help the software design by applying various life distribution and shape parameters, and providing basic knowledge using software failure analysis.