• Title/Summary/Keyword: level probability

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A Study on the Effect of the Visualization in the Learning of Probability Calculation at a Middle School (중학교 확률계산학습에서 시각화활동의 효과에 대한 연구)

  • 권병주
    • Journal of the Korean School Mathematics Society
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.43-53
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    • 1999
  • Two (second-grade) classes of Yu-song middle school were chosen to research the effect of the visualization in the learning of probability calculation at a middle school. One class, as an experiment class, was taught the probability calculation of probability unit by the visualization learning and the other, as a controlled class, was taught it by the traditional lecture, and then through the writing tests there was a verification on the effect of right after test and the delaying test after 3 weeks to examine the learning effect of high- and low-level groups. It was difficult for the students to visualize the problems of the probability calculation, but I suggested simple models to the students and helped them to learn meaningfully. As a result of this study, there showed statistically significant difference in high-level group in the right after test.(P< .05) In the delaying test after 3 weeks, there also showed statistically significant marks only in high-level group.(P< .05) The visualization in the learning of probability calculation took more affirmative effect in the experiment class than the comparative class only in high-level group. The students in low-level group has difficulties in the visualization activities, but all the students in high-and low-level group thought the visualization was a great help to them in learning probability calculation.

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Selection Method of Multiple Threshold Based on Probability Distribution function Using Fuzzy Clustering (퍼지 클러스터링을 이용한 확률분포함수 기반의 다중문턱값 선정법)

  • Kim, Gyung-Bum;Chung, Sung-Chong
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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    • v.16 no.5 s.98
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    • pp.48-57
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    • 1999
  • Applications of thresholding technique are based on the assumption that object and background pixels in a digital image can be distinguished by their gray level values. For the segmentation of more complex images, it is necessary to resort to multiple threshold selection techniques. This paper describes a new method for multiple threshold selection of gray level images which are not clearly distinguishable from the background. The proposed method consists of three main stages. In the first stage, a probability distribution function for a gray level histogram of an image is derived. Cluster points are defined according to the probability distribution function. In the second stage, fuzzy partition matrix of the probability distribution function is generated through the fuzzy clustering process. Finally, elements of the fuzzy partition matrix are classified as clusters according to gray level values by using max-membership method. Boundary values of classified clusters are selected as multiple threshold. In order to verify the performance of the developed algorithm, automatic inspection process of ball grid array is presented.

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Detection of a bias level in prediction errors due to input accelerations (입력 가속에서 비롯된 innovation 바이어스 레벨의 검출)

  • 신해곤;홍순목
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1992.10a
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    • pp.554-557
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    • 1992
  • In this paper the normalized innovations squared of a Kalman filter is used to detect a bias level in prediction errors due to target accelerations. The probability density function of the normalized innovation squared is obtained for a steady state Kalman filter, and it is used to calculate the detection probability of the bias level. A typical example is given to compute the detection probability.

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Determining Level-of-Service Criteria of Headway Adherence (버스 운행 정시성의 서비스수준 기준산정)

  • Go, Seung-Yeong;Park, Jun-Sik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.151-160
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    • 2005
  • In case of public transit such as bus system, the probability concept is used to evaluate the Level-of-Service of the operations. And each levels could be classified according to the linear probability value. (TCQSM: Transit Capacity and Quality of Service Manual-2nd Edition, TRB, Washington DC., 2003) In this case, the drivers or passengers wouldn't think that the service level isn't equivalent to the linear probability value. Thus the linear probability value doesn't exactly reflect the service level. This study shows the problems of using the linear probability value in classifying the service level through the case of evaluation of bus operation's punctuality, presented in TCQSM. To make up for the problems of such case, two methodologies are presented in this study. The method of determining Level-of-Service criteria using probability density of headway variation's distribution, presented in this paper, adequately reflects passenger's expected waiting time. According to the application result to real bus operation data, it tis better than the method of TCQSM to evaluate the reliability of bus operations. However further research about the relations between utility difference and passenger feeling of service level in necessary to apply the method that uses the utility function. It remains as the limitation of this paper.

The Effects of the Probability Activities in Thinking Science Program on the Development of the Probabilistic Thinking of Middle School Students (Thinking Science 프로그램의 확률 활동이 중학생의 확률적 사고 형성에 미치는 효과)

  • Kyung-In Shin;Sang-Kwon Lee;Ae-Kyung Shin;Byung-Soon Choi
    • Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.165-174
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    • 2003
  • The purposes of this study were to investigate the correlation between the cognitive level and the probabilistic thinking level and to analyze the effects of the probability activities in Thinking Science (TS) program on the development of probabilistic thinking. The 219 7th grade students were sampled in the middle school and were divided into an experimental group and a control group. The probability activities in TS program were implemented to the experimental group, while only normal curriculum was conducted in the control group. The results of this study showed that most of 7th grade students were in the concrete operational stage and used both subjective and quantitative strategy simultaneously in probability problem solving. It was also found that the higher the cognitive level of the students, the higher the probabilistic thinking level of them. The sample space and the probability of an event in the constructs of probability were first developed as compared to the probability comparisons and the conditional probability. The probability activities encouraged the students to use quantitative strategy in probability problem solving and to recognize probability of an event. Especially, the effectiveness was relatively higher for the students in the mid concrete operational stage than those in any other stage.

A Study on Korean Spoken Language Understanding Model (한국어 구어 음성 언어 이해 모델에 관한 연구)

  • 노용완;홍광석
    • Proceedings of the IEEK Conference
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    • 2003.07e
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    • pp.2435-2438
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    • 2003
  • In this paper, we propose a Korean speech understanding model using dictionary and thesaurus. The proposed model search the dictionary for the same word with in input text. If it is not in the dictionary, the proposed model search the high level words in the high level word dictionary based on the thesaurus. We compare the probability of sentence understanding model with threshold probability, and we'll get the speech understanding rate. We evaluated the performance of the sentence speech understanding system by applying twenty questions game. As the experiment results, we got sentence speech understanding accuracy of 79.8%. In this case probability of high level word is 0.9 and threshold probability is 0.38.

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A Study on the Delayed Factors in Evacuation Behavior in the Case of Fire Accidents in Highway Tunnels (고속도로 터널 내 화재사고 발생 시 대피행동 지연 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Jae-Hwan, Cho
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.143-148
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    • 2022
  • This paper attempted to analyze the correlation between the risk image of the evacuees in the tunnel and the variables that affect the evacuation behavior due to the closed feeling. As to whether there is a difference in the level of recognizing the tunnel risk image according to the distribution of jobs, the null hypothesis was rejected at the significance probability of 0.002, so it can be said that the level of recognition of the tunnel risk image varies depending on the job group. In the distribution difference between gender and tunnel risk image recognition level, the significance probability was 0.012, indicating that the null hypothesis was rejected, indicating that the tunnel risk recognition distribution according to gender was different. As a result of analyzing the distribution difference between the tunnel's closed feeling and the tunnel risk perception level, the significance probability was 0.001, and the null hypothesis was rejected, indicating that there was a difference in the tunnel risk image level.

Structural safety factor for small unmanned aircraft (소형 무인기 구조 안전계수)

  • Kim, Sung-Joon;Lee, Seung-gyu;Kim, Tae-Uk
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.12-17
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    • 2017
  • Manned aircraft structural design is based on structural safety factor of 1.5, and this safety factor is equivalent to a probability of failure of between 10-2 and 10-3. The target failure probability of FARs is between 10-6 and 10-9 per flight according to aircraft type. NATO released STANAG 4703 to established the airworthiness requirements for small UAV which is less than 150kg. STANAG 4703 requires the Target Level of Safety according to MTOW. The requirements of failure probability for small UAV is between 10-4 and 10-5. In this paper, requirements of airworthiness certification for small UAV were investigated and the relationship of safety factors to the probability of structural failure is analyzed to reduce measure of safety factor and structural weight of unmanned aircraft.

Surplus Process Perturbed by Diffusion and Subject to Two Types of Claim

  • Choi, Seung Kyoung;Won, Hojeong;Lee, Eui Yong
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.95-103
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    • 2015
  • We introduce a surplus process which follows a diffusion process with positive drift and is subject to two types of claim. We assume that type I claim occurs more frequently, however, its size is stochastically smaller than type II claim. We obtain the ruin probability that the level of the surplus becomes negative, and then, decompose the ruin probability into three parts, two ruin probabilities caused by each type of claim and the probability that the level of the surplus becomes negative naturally due to the diffusion process. Finally, we illustrate a numerical example, when the sizes of both types of claim are exponentially distributed, to compare the impacts of two types of claim on the ruin probability of the surplus along with that of the diffusion process.

Reliability Analysis of Chloride Ion Penetration based on Level II Method for Marine Concrete Structure (해양 콘크리트 구조물에 대한 Level II 수준에서의 염소이온침투 신뢰성 해석)

  • Han, Sang-Hun
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.129-139
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    • 2008
  • Due to uncertainty of numerous variables in durability model, a probalistic approach is increasing. Monte Carlo simulation (Level III method) is an easily accessible method, but requires a lot of repeated operations. This paper evaluated the effectiveness of First Order Second Moment method (Level II method), which is more convenient and time saving method than MCS, to predict the corrosion initiation in harbor concrete structure. Mean Value First Order Second Moment method (MV FOSM) and Advanced First Order Second Moment method (AFOSM) are applied to the error function solution of Fick's second law modeling chloride diffusion. Reliability index and failure probability based on MV FOSM and AFOSM are compared with the results by MCS. The comparison showed that AFOSM and MCS predict the similar reliability index and MV FOSM underestimates the probability of corrosion initiation by chloride attack. Also, the sensitivity of variables in durability model to corrosion initiation probability was evaluated on the basis of AFOSM. The results showed that AFOSM is a simple and efficient method to estimate the probability of corrosion initiation in harbor structures.