• Title/Summary/Keyword: landslide prediction model

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Landslide Susceptibility Assessment Considering the Saturation Depth Ratio by Rainfall Change (강우변화에 따른 토층 내 침투깊이를 고려한 산사태위험지수 개발)

  • Kwak, Jae Hwan;Kim, Man-Il;Lee, Seung-Jae
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.687-699
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    • 2018
  • Understanding rain infiltration into the ground is an important feature of landslide risk evaluation. In this study, a landslide risk index for the study area is suggested, wherein the result of the landslide risk evaluation, based on the factor of safety (FS), is used. The landslide risk index is a landslide risk prediction index that utilizes the saturated depth ratio of the ground. Based on the landslide risk result for the study area, it was found that the FS was first to decrease. However, it gradually became convergent over the 50-year rainfall intensity study period, a result that is similar to the relationship between the saturated depth ratio and soil thickness. Moreover, saturated depth was also found to be deeper on gentle slopes than steep slopes. As such, the landslide risk index, based on the Inhu-ri study result, is thus suggested. Additionally, the suggested landslide risk index was compared and analyzed against the rainfall intensity of previous landslide experience. Results thus revealed that almost all landslides that occurred were over 0.7, which is the second grade, based on the landslide risk index.

A Study on Experimental Prediction of Landslide in Korea Granite Weathered Soil using Scaled-down Model Test (축소모형 실험을 통한 국내 화강암 풍화토의 산사태 예측 실험 연구)

  • Son, In-Hwan;Oh, Yong-Thak;Lee, Su-Gon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.439-447
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    • 2019
  • In this study, experiments were conducted to establish appropriate measures for slopes with high risk of collapse and to obtain results for minimizing slope collapse damage by detecting the micro-displacement of soil in advance by installing a laser sensor and a vibration sensor in the landslide reduction model experiment. Also, the behavior characteristics of the soil layer due to rainfall and moisture ratio changes such as pore water pressure and moisture were analyzed through a landslide reduction model experiment. The artificial slope was created using granite weathering soil, and the resulting water ratio(water pressure, water) changes were measured at different rainfall conditions of 200mm/hr and 400mm/hr. Laser sensors and vibration sensors were applied to analyze the surface displacement, and the displacement time were compared with each other by video analysis. Experiments have shown that higher rainfall intensity takes shorter time to reach the limit, and increase in the pore water pressure takes shorter time as well. Although the landslide model test does not fully reflect the site conditions, measurements of the time of detection of displacement generation using vibration sensors show that the timing of collapse is faster than the method using laser sensors. If ground displacement measurements using sensors are continuously carried out in preparation for landslides, it is considered highly likely to be utilized as basic data for predicting slope collapse, reducing damage, and activating the measurement industry.

Slope Failure Prediction through the Analysis of Surface Ground Deformation on Field Model Experiment (현장모형실험 기반 표층거동분석을 통한 사면붕괴 예측)

  • Park, Sung-Yong;Min, Yeon-Sik;Kang, Min-seo;Jung, Hee-Don;Sami, Ghazali-Flimban;Kim, Yong-Seong
    • Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2017
  • Recently, one of the natural disasters, landslide is causing huge damage to people and properties. In order to minimize the damage caused by continuous landslide, a scientific management system is needed for technologies related to measurement and monitoring system. This study aims to establish a management system for landslide damage by prediction of slope failure. Ground behavior was predicted by surface ground deformation in case of slope failure, and the change in ground displacement was observed as slope surface. As a result, during the slope failure, the ground deformation has the collapse section, the after collapse precursor section, the acceleration section and the burst acceleration section. In all cases, increase in displacement with time was observed as a slope failure, and it is very important event of measurement and maintenance of risky slope. In the future, it can be used as basic data of slope management standard through continuous research. And it can contribute to reduction of landslide damage and activation of measurement industry.

Comparison of Analysis Model on Soil Disaster According to Soil Characteristics (지반특성에 따른 토사재해 해석 모델 비교)

  • Choi, Wonil;Baek, Seungcheol
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.21-30
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    • 2017
  • This study analyzed the ground characteristics region by designating 3 research areas, Anrim-dong in Chungju City, Busa-dong in Daejeon Metropolitan City and Sinan-dong in Andong City out of the areas subject to concentrated management to prepare for sediment disaster in downtown areas. The correlation between ground characteristics were observed by using characteristics (crown density, root cohesion, rainfall characteristics, soil characteristics) and the risk areas were predicted through sediment disaster prediction modeling. Landslide MAPping (LSMAP), Stability Index MAPping (SINMAP) and Landslide Hazard MAP (LHMAP) were used for the comparative analysis of the hazard prediction model for sediment disaster. As a result of predicting the sediment disaster danger, in case of SINMAP which was generally used, excessive range was predicted as a hazardous area and in case of the Korea Forest Service's landslide hazard map (LHMAP), the smallest prediction area was assessed. LSMAP predicted a medium range of SINMAP and LHMAP as hazardous area. The difference of the prediction results is that the analysis parameters of LSMAP is more diverse and engineering than two comparative models, and it is found that more precise prediction is possible.

A Study on Risk Assessment Method for Earthquake-Induced Landslides (지진에 의한 산사태 위험도 평가방안에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Junpyo;Eu, Song;Lee, Kihwan;Lee, Changwoo;Woo, Choongshik
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.694-709
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: In this study, earthquake-induced landslide risk assessment was conducted to provide basic data for efficient and preemptive damage prevention by selecting the erosion control work before the earthquake and the prediction and restoration priorities of the damaged area after the earthquake. Method: The study analyzed the previous studies abroad to examine the evaluation methodology and to derive the evaluation factors, and examine the utilization of the landslide hazard map currently used in Korea. In addition, the earthquake-induced landslide hazard map was also established on a pilot basis based on the fault zone and epicenter of Pohang using seismic attenuation. Result: The earthquake-induced landslide risk assessment study showed that China ranked 44%, Italy 16%, the U.S. 15%, Japan 10%, and Taiwan 8%. As for the evaluation method, the statistical model was the most common at 59%, and the physical model was found at 23%. The factors frequently used in the statistical model were altitude, distance from the fault, gradient, slope aspect, country rock, and topographic curvature. Since Korea's landslide hazard map reflects topography, geology, and forest floor conditions, it has been shown that it is reasonable to evaluate the risk of earthquake-induced landslides using it. As a result of evaluating the risk of landslides based on the fault zone and epicenter in the Pohang area, the risk grade was changed to reflect the impact of the earthquake. Conclusion: It is effective to use the landslide hazard map to evaluate the risk of earthquake-induced landslides at the regional scale. The risk map based on the fault zone is effective when used in the selection of a target site for preventive erosion control work to prevent damage from earthquake-induced landslides. In addition, the risk map based on the epicenter can be used for efficient follow-up management in order to prioritize damage prevention measures, such as to investigate the current status of landslide damage after an earthquake, or to restore the damaged area.

Analysis and Verification of Slope Disaster Hazard Using Infinite Slope Model and GIS (무한사면해석기법과 GIS를 이용한 사면 재해 위험성 분석 및 검증)

  • 박혁진;이사로;김정우
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.313-320
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    • 2003
  • Slope disaster is one of the repeated occurring geological disasters in rainy season resulting in about 23 human losses in Korea every year. The slope disaster, however, mainly depends on the spatial and climate properties. such as geology, geomorphology, and heavy rainfall, and, hence, the prediction or hazard analysis of the slope disaster is a difficult task. Therefore, GIS and various statistical methods are implemented for slope disaster analysis. In particular, GIS technique is widely used for the analysis because it effectively handles large amount of spatial data. The GIS technique. however, only considers the statistics between slope disaster occurrence and related factors, not the mechanism. Accordingly. an infinite slope model that mechanically considers the balance of forces applied to the slope is suggested here with GIS for slope disaster analysis. According to the research results, the infinite slope model has a possibility that can be utilized for landslide prediction and hazard evaluation since 87.5% of landslide occurrence areas have been predicted by this technique.

A Feasibility Study of a Rainfall Triggeirng Index Model to Warn Landslides in Korea (산사태 경보를 위한 RTI 모델의 적용성 평가)

  • Chae, Byung-Gon;Choi, Junghae;Jeong, Hae Keun
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.235-250
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    • 2016
  • In Korea, 70% of the annual rainfall falls in summer, and the number of days of extreme rainfall (over 200 mm) is increasing over time. Because rainfall is the most important trigger of landslides, it is necessary to decide a rainfall threshold for landslide warning and to develop a landslide warning model. This study selected 12 study areas that contained landslides with exactly known triggering times and locations, and also rainfall data. The feasibility of applying a Rainfall Triggering Index (RTI) to Korea is analyzed, and three RTI models that consider different time units for rainfall intensity are compared. The analyses show that the 60-minute RTI model failed to predict landslides in three of the study areas, while both the 30- and 10-minute RTI models gave successful predictions for all of the study areas. Each RTI model showed different mean response times to landslide warning: 4.04 hours in the 60-minute RTI model, 6.08 hours in the 30-minute RTI model, and 9.15 hours in the 10-minute RTI model. Longer response times to landslides were possible using models that considered rainfall intensity for shorter periods of time. Considering the large variations in rainfall intensity that may occur within short periods in Korea, it is possible to increase the accuracy of prediction, and thereby improve the early warning of landslides, using a RTI model that considers rainfall intensity for periods of less than 1 hour.

Assessment of Landslide Susceptibility in Jecheon Using Deep Learning Based on Exploratory Data Analysis (데이터 탐색을 활용한 딥러닝 기반 제천 지역 산사태 취약성 분석)

  • Sang-A Ahn;Jung-Hyun Lee;Hyuck-Jin Park
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.673-687
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    • 2023
  • Exploratory data analysis is the process of observing and understanding data collected from various sources to identify their distributions and correlations through their structures and characterization. This process can be used to identify correlations among conditioning factors and select the most effective factors for analysis. This can help the assessment of landslide susceptibility, because landslides are usually triggered by multiple factors, and the impacts of these factors vary by region. This study compared two stages of exploratory data analysis to examine the impact of the data exploration procedure on the landslide prediction model's performance with respect to factor selection. Deep-learning-based landslide susceptibility analysis used either a combinations of selected factors or all 23 factors. During the data exploration phase, we used a Pearson correlation coefficient heat map and a histogram of random forest feature importance. We then assessed the accuracy of our deep-learning-based analysis of landslide susceptibility using a confusion matrix. Finally, a landslide susceptibility map was generated using the landslide susceptibility index derived from the proposed analysis. The analysis revealed that using all 23 factors resulted in low accuracy (55.90%), but using the 13 factors selected in one step of exploration improved the accuracy to 81.25%. This was further improved to 92.80% using only the nine conditioning factors selected during both steps of the data exploration. Therefore, exploratory data analysis selected the conditioning factors most suitable for landslide susceptibility analysis and thereby improving the performance of the analysis.

Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using Deep Neural Network and Convolutional Neural Network (Deep Neural Network와 Convolutional Neural Network 모델을 이용한 산사태 취약성 매핑)

  • Gong, Sung-Hyun;Baek, Won-Kyung;Jung, Hyung-Sup
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.6_2
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    • pp.1723-1735
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    • 2022
  • Landslides are one of the most prevalent natural disasters, threating both humans and property. Also landslides can cause damage at the national level, so effective prediction and prevention are essential. Research to produce a landslide susceptibility map with high accuracy is steadily being conducted, and various models have been applied to landslide susceptibility analysis. Pixel-based machine learning models such as frequency ratio models, logistic regression models, ensembles models, and Artificial Neural Networks have been mainly applied. Recent studies have shown that the kernel-based convolutional neural network (CNN) technique is effective and that the spatial characteristics of input data have a significant effect on the accuracy of landslide susceptibility mapping. For this reason, the purpose of this study is to analyze landslide vulnerability using a pixel-based deep neural network model and a patch-based convolutional neural network model. The research area was set up in Gangwon-do, including Inje, Gangneung, and Pyeongchang, where landslides occurred frequently and damaged. Landslide-related factors include slope, curvature, stream power index (SPI), topographic wetness index (TWI), topographic position index (TPI), timber diameter, timber age, lithology, land use, soil depth, soil parent material, lineament density, fault density, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and normalized difference water index (NDWI) were used. Landslide-related factors were built into a spatial database through data preprocessing, and landslide susceptibility map was predicted using deep neural network (DNN) and CNN models. The model and landslide susceptibility map were verified through average precision (AP) and root mean square errors (RMSE), and as a result of the verification, the patch-based CNN model showed 3.4% improved performance compared to the pixel-based DNN model. The results of this study can be used to predict landslides and are expected to serve as a scientific basis for establishing land use policies and landslide management policies.

Rockfall Source Identification Using a Hybrid Gaussian Mixture-Ensemble Machine Learning Model and LiDAR Data

  • Fanos, Ali Mutar;Pradhan, Biswajeet;Mansor, Shattri;Yusoff, Zainuddin Md;Abdullah, Ahmad Fikri bin;Jung, Hyung-Sup
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.93-115
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    • 2019
  • The availability of high-resolution laser scanning data and advanced machine learning algorithms has enabled an accurate potential rockfall source identification. However, the presence of other mass movements, such as landslides within the same region of interest, poses additional challenges to this task. Thus, this research presents a method based on an integration of Gaussian mixture model (GMM) and ensemble artificial neural network (bagging ANN [BANN]) for automatic detection of potential rockfall sources at Kinta Valley area, Malaysia. The GMM was utilised to determine slope angle thresholds of various geomorphological units. Different algorithms(ANN, support vector machine [SVM] and k nearest neighbour [kNN]) were individually tested with various ensemble models (bagging, voting and boosting). Grid search method was adopted to optimise the hyperparameters of the investigated base models. The proposed model achieves excellent results with success and prediction accuracies at 95% and 94%, respectively. In addition, this technique has achieved excellent accuracies (ROC = 95%) over other methods used. Moreover, the proposed model has achieved the optimal prediction accuracies (92%) on the basis of testing data, thereby indicating that the model can be generalised and replicated in different regions, and the proposed method can be applied to various landslide studies.