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http://dx.doi.org/10.9720/kseg.2016.2.235

A Feasibility Study of a Rainfall Triggeirng Index Model to Warn Landslides in Korea  

Chae, Byung-Gon (Geologic Environment Division, Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources)
Choi, Junghae (Geologic Environment Division, Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources)
Jeong, Hae Keun (Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power CO., LTD)
Publication Information
The Journal of Engineering Geology / v.26, no.2, 2016 , pp. 235-250 More about this Journal
Abstract
In Korea, 70% of the annual rainfall falls in summer, and the number of days of extreme rainfall (over 200 mm) is increasing over time. Because rainfall is the most important trigger of landslides, it is necessary to decide a rainfall threshold for landslide warning and to develop a landslide warning model. This study selected 12 study areas that contained landslides with exactly known triggering times and locations, and also rainfall data. The feasibility of applying a Rainfall Triggering Index (RTI) to Korea is analyzed, and three RTI models that consider different time units for rainfall intensity are compared. The analyses show that the 60-minute RTI model failed to predict landslides in three of the study areas, while both the 30- and 10-minute RTI models gave successful predictions for all of the study areas. Each RTI model showed different mean response times to landslide warning: 4.04 hours in the 60-minute RTI model, 6.08 hours in the 30-minute RTI model, and 9.15 hours in the 10-minute RTI model. Longer response times to landslides were possible using models that considered rainfall intensity for shorter periods of time. Considering the large variations in rainfall intensity that may occur within short periods in Korea, it is possible to increase the accuracy of prediction, and thereby improve the early warning of landslides, using a RTI model that considers rainfall intensity for periods of less than 1 hour.
Keywords
landslide; rainfall intensity; RTI model; early warning; response time;
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