• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• v.22 no.2
• /
• pp.157-168
• /
• 2022

A moment-independent importance measure analysis approach was introduced to quantify the effects of structural uncertainty parameters on probabilistic seismic demands of simply supported girder bridges. Based on the probability distributions of main uncertainty parameters in bridges, conditional and unconditional bridge samples were constructed with Monte-Carlo sampling and analyzed in the OpenSees platform with a series of real seismic ground motion records. Conditional and unconditional probability density functions were developed using kernel density estimation with the results of nonlinear time history analysis of the bridge samples. Moment-independent importance measures of these uncertainty parameters were derived by numerical integrations with the conditional and unconditional probability density functions, and the uncertainty parameters were ranked in descending order of their importance. Different from Tornado diagram approach, the impacts of uncertainty parameters on the whole probability distributions of bridge seismic demands and the interactions of uncertainty parameters were considered simultaneously in the importance measure analysis approach. Results show that the interaction of uncertainty parameters had significant impacts on the seismic demand of components, and in some cases, it changed the most significant parameters for piers, bearings and abutments.

• ETRI Journal
• /
• v.45 no.2
• /
• pp.267-276
• /
• 2023

R&D strategies of companies with low and high technological levels are discussed based on the concept of technology convergence and divergence. However, empirically detecting enterprise technology convergence in the distribution of enterprise technology (total productivity increase) over time and identifying key change factors are challenging. This study used a novel statistical indicator that captures the internal technology distribution change with a single number to clearly measure the technology distribution peak as a change in critical bandwidth for enterprise technology convergence and presented it as evidence of each technology convergence or divergence. Furthermore, this study applied the quantitative technology convergence identification method. Technology convergence appeared from the separation of total corporate productivity distribution of 69 IT companies in Korea in 2019-2020 rather than in 2015-2016. Results indicated that when the total technological level was separated from the technology leading and technology catch-up, IT companies were found to be pursuing R&D strategies for technology catch-up.

• Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
• /
• v.27 no.1
• /
• pp.11-21
• /
• 2013

We tried to find out the core feeding site of the Red-crowned Crane(Grus japonensis) in Cheorwon, Korea by using analysis techniques which are MCP(minimum convex polygon), KDE(kernel density estimation), LoCoH(local nearest-neighbor convex-hull). And, We discussed the difference and meaning of result among analysis methods. We choose the data of utilization distribution from distribution map of Red-crowned Crane in Cheorwon, Korea at $17^{th}$ February 2012. Extent of the distribution area was $140km^2$ by MCP analysis. Extents of core feeding area of the Red-crowned Crane were $33.3km^2$($KDE_{1000m}$), $25.7km^2$($KDE_{CVh}$), $19.7km^2$($KDE_{LSCVh}$), according to the 1000m, CVh, LSCVh in value of bandwidth. Extent, number and shape complexity of the core area has decreased, and size of each core area have decreased as small as the bandwidth size(default:1000m, CVh: 554.6m, LSCVh: 329.9). We would suggest the CVh value in KDE analysis as a proper bandwidth value for the Red-crowned crane's core area zoning. Extent of the distribution range and core area have increased and merged into the large core area as a increasing of k value in LoCoH analysis. Proper value for the selecting core area of Red-crowned Crane's distribution was k=24, and extent of the core area was $18.2km^2$, 16.5% area of total distribution area. Finally, the result of LoCoH analysis, we selected two core area, and number of selected core area was smaller than selected area of KDE analysis. Exact value of bandwidth have not been used in studies using KDE analysis in most articles and presentations of the Korea. As a result, it is needed to clarify the exact using bandwidth value in KDE studies.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.23 no.2
• /
• pp.107-122
• /
• 2017

Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
• /
• v.20 no.2
• /
• pp.73-94
• /
• 2003

In general, the interest rate is forecasted by the parametric method which assumes the interest rate follows a certain distribution. However the method has a shortcoming that forecasting ability would decline when the interest rate does not follow the assumed distribution for the stochastic behavior of interest rate. Therefore, the nonparametric method which assumes no particular distribution is regarded as a superior one. This paper compares the interest rate forecasting ability between the two method for the Monetary Stabilization Bond (MSB) market in Korea. The daily and weekly data of the MSB are used during the period of August 9th 1999 to February 7th 2003. In the parametric method, the drift term of the interest rate process shows the linearity while the diffusion term presents non-linear decline. Meanwhile in the nonparametric method, both drift and diffusion terms show the radical change with nonlinearity. The parametric and nonparametric methods present a significant difference in the market price of interest rate risk. This means in forecasting the interest rate and the market price of interest rate risk, the nonparametric method is more appropriate than the parametric method.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartA
• /
• v.12A no.5 s.95
• /
• pp.451-460
• /
• 2005

We present a methodology to design energy-efficient data paths using FPGAs. Our methodology integrates domain specific modeling, coarse-grained performance evaluation, design space exploration, and low-level simulation to understand the tradeoffs between energy, latency, and area. The domain specific modeling technique defines a high-level model by identifying various components and parameters specific to a domain that affect the system-wide energy dissipation. A domain is a family of architectures and corresponding algorithms for a given application kernel. The high-level model also consists of functions for estimating energy, latency, and area that facilitate tradeoff analysis. Design space exploration(DSE) analyzes the design space defined by the domain and selects a set of designs. Low-level simulations are used for accurate performance estimation for the designs selected by the DSE and also for final design selection We illustrate our methodology using a family of architectures and algorithms for matrix multiplication. The designs identified by our methodology demonstrate tradeoffs among energy, latency, and area. We compare our designs with a vendor specified matrix multiplication kernel to demonstrate the effectiveness of our methodology. To illustrate the effectiveness of our methodology, we used average power density(E/AT), energy/(area x latency), as themetric for comparison. For various problem sizes, designs obtained using our methodology are on average $25\%$ superior with respect to the E/AT performance metric, compared with the state-of-the-art designs by Xilinx. We also discuss the implementation of our methodology using the MILAN framework.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
• /
• v.23 no.1
• /
• pp.56-70
• /
• 2020

This study identifies the impact of social network service (SNS) on the spatial characteristics of retail stores locations in the hyper-connected society, which have been closely related to the everyday lives of urban residents. In particular, we focus on the changes in the spatial distribution of restaurants since the information retrieval process was added to the decision-making process of a consumer's restaurant selection. Empirically, we analyze restaurants in Seoul, Korea since the smart-phone was introduced. By applying the kernel density estimation and Moran's I index, we examine the changes in the spatial distribution pattern of restaurants during the last ten years for running, newly-open and closed restaurants as well as SNS popular ones. Finally, we develop a spatial regression model to identify geographic features affecting their locations. As the results, we identified geographical variables and online factors that influence the location of restaurants. The results of this study could provide important groundwork for food and beverage location planning and policy formulation.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.32 no.4
• /
• pp.543-559
• /
• 2019

Data often include missing values due to various reasons. If the missing data mechanism is not MCAR, analysis based on fully observed cases may an estimation cause bias and decrease the precision of the estimate since partially observed cases are excluded. Especially when data include many variables, missing values cause more serious problems. Many imputation techniques are suggested to overcome this difficulty. However, imputation methods using parametric models may not fit well with real data which do not satisfy model assumptions. In this study, we review imputation methods using nonlinear models such as kernel, resampling, and spline methods which are robust on model assumptions. In addition, we suggest utilizing imputation classes to improve imputation accuracy or adding random errors to correctly estimate the variance of the estimates in nonlinear imputation models. Performances of imputation methods using nonlinear models are compared under various simulated data settings. Simulation results indicate that the performances of imputation methods are different as data settings change. However, imputation based on the kernel regression or the penalized spline performs better in most situations. Utilizing imputation classes or adding random errors improves the performance of imputation methods using nonlinear models.

• Knowledge Management Research
• /
• v.24 no.1
• /
• pp.245-271
• /
• 2023

The change to the data economy requires a new analysis beyond ordinary research in the management field. Data matching refers to a technique or processing method that combines data sets collected from different samples with the same population. In this study, statistical matching was performed using random hotdeck and Mahalanobis distance functions using 2020 Survey of Korea Venture Firms and 2020 Korea Innovation Survey datas. Among the variables used for statistical matching simulation, the industry and the number of workers were set to be completely consistent, and region, business power, listed market, and sales were set as common variables. Simulation verification was confirmed by mean test and kernel density. As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that statistical matching was appropriate because there was a difference in the average test, but a similar pattern was shown in the kernel density. This result attempted to expand the spectrum of the research method by experimenting with a data matching research methodology that has not been sufficiently attempted in the management field, and suggests implications in terms of data utilization and diversity.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
• /
• v.16 no.12
• /
• pp.8753-8759
• /
• 2015

Establishment of analysis procedures and validated performance measurements for generator output is required to maintain stable management of generator output in turbine power generation cycle. We developed turbine expansion model and measurement validation model for the performance calculation of generator using turbine output based on ASME (American Society of Mechanical Engineers) PTC (Performance Test Code). We also developed verification model for uncertain measurement data related to the turbine and generator output. Although the model in previous researches was developed using artificial neural network and kernel regression, the verification model in this paper was based on algorithms through Support Vector Machine (SVM) model to overcome the problems of unmeasured data. The selection procedures of related variables and data window for verification learning was also developed. The model reveals suitability in the estimation procss as the learning error was in the range of about 1%. The learning model can provide validated estimations for corrective performance analysis of turbine cycle output using the predictions of measurement data loss.