• Journal of The Korean Digital Architecture Interior Association
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.89-98
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• 2012

While the housing transaction price of Seoul tends to be stagnant or declining in line with the housing market recession since 2007, the jeonse price keeps continual increase. Such flow of jeonse price change has a serious influence on ordinary person's housing stability seriously. Therefore, it is very meaningful in terms of social policy to analyze the trend of recent jeonse price change. This study aims to have an empirical analysis of structural characteristics of the trend of recent jeonse price change. After the review of various previous studies, this study selected housing jeonse price index, non-sold house quantity, jeonse vs. transaction price rate, and housing construction performance as analytical variables, and employed monthly time series resources from January 2007 to April 2011. As a result, when the housing supply reduced, the potential quantity for jeonse market reduced that occurred unbalance of supply and demand in jeonse market. In turn, it caused the increase of jeonse price. And, in case of jeonse vs. transaction price rate change, the rate increased which means the increase of required rate of return of invested demand. As such, the increase of market risk degenerates the investment sentiment which caused the reduction of quantity for jeonse market as a submarket.

• The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.301-306
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• 2013

The Ratio of APT jeonse to purchase price was still rising. The interaction of APT Purchase and Jeonse price indices by region analysis in order to analyze this phenomenon, and results were summarized as follows. First, because the regional APT purchase and jeonse prices appears the rise and fall differently by region, regional polarization was deepening. Second, the recently real estate market was analyzed the province's booming real estate and the downturn of the metropolitan area. So, the ratio of APT jeonse to purchase price was continued to rise. Finally, the Ratio of APT jeonse to purchase price changing rate is (+) increased if the APT purchase price changing rate is larger then the APT purchase price changing rate and smaller then is (-) decreased.

• Journal of The Korean Digital Architecture Interior Association
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.13-20
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• 2010

Uncertainty in housing price fluctuation has great impact on the overall economy due to importance of housing market as both place of residence and investment target. Therefore, estimating housing market condition is a highly important task in terms of setting national policy. Primary indicator of the housing market is a ratio between rent and transaction price of housing. The research explores dynamic relationships between Rent-Transaction price ratio, housing transaction price and jeonse rental price, using Vector Autoregressive Model, in order to demonstrate significance of shifting rent-transaction price that is subject to changes in housing transaction and housing rental market. The research applied housing transaction price index and housing rental price index as an indicator to measure transaction and rental price of housing. The price index and data for price ratio was derived from statistical data of the Kookmin Bank. The time-series data contains monthly data ranging between January 1999 and November 2009; the data was log transformed to convert to level variable. The analysis result suggests that the rising ratio between rent-transaction price of housing should be interpreted as a precursor for rise of housing transaction price, rather than judging as a mere indicator of a current trend.

• Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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• v.52 no.2
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• pp.211-231
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• 2022

This study attempted to identify the effects of macroeconomic variables such as the All Industry Production Index, Consumer Price Index, CD Interest Rate, and KOSPI on apartment lease prices divided into nationwide, Seoul, metropolitan, and region, and to present a methodological prediction model of apartment lease prices by region using Long Short Term Memory (LSTM). According to VAR analysis results, the nationwide apartment lease price index and consumer price index in Lag1 and 2 had a significant effect on the nationwide apartment lease price, and likewise, the Seoul apartment lease price index, the consumer price index, and the CD interest rate in Lag1 and 2 affect the apartment lease price in Seoul. In addition, it was confirmed that the wide-area apartment jeonse price index and the consumer price index had a significant effect on Lag1, and the local apartment jeonse price index and the consumer price index had a significant effect on Lag1. As a result of the establishment of the LSTM prediction model, the predictive power was the highest with RMSE 0.008, MAE 0.006, and R-Suared values of 0.999 for the local apartment lease price prediction model. In the future, it is expected that more meaningful results can be obtained by applying an advanced model based on deep learning, including major policy variables

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.1361-1369
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• 2014

This research is for analyzing the change rate of housing rent price index produced by KAB (Korea Appraisal Board) in the monthly periodical, Survey on Housing Monthly Rent. The index is a very important and useful indicator to understand and diagnose the house rental market. However, the index is criticized in that it tends to decline when the price level of Jeonse (i.e., a typical type of dwellings in Korea, generally leased on a deposit basis for 1 or 2 years) is highly going up, which is inconsistent with the actual economic sentiment of tenants. We verify the reason why such phenomenon occurs and suggest a simple but novel method to analyze properly the change rate of the index. The main findings are as follows. The key factor to trigger the problem is the use of the conversion rate for Jeonse-to-monthly rent for constructing the rent price indexes. We separate the effect of the conversion rate out of the change rate of the index and quantify the adjusted real change rate showing an increase of the rent price level which is masked by the conversion rate before.

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.43-54
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• 2013

This This paper investigates the variation of the factors to determinate housing price in Seoul metropolitan area after sub-prime financial crisis, in Korea, using a VAR model. The model includes housing price and housing rent (Jeonse) in Seoul metropolitan area from 1999 to 2011, and uses interest rate, real GDP, KOSPI, Producer Price Index and practices to impulse response and variance decomposition analysis to grasp the dynamic relation between a variable of macro economy and and a variable of housing price. Data is classified to 2 groups before and after the 3rd quater of 2008, when sub-prime crisis occurred; one is from the 1st quater of 1999 to the 3rd quater of 2008, and the other is from the 2nd quater of 1999 and the 4th quater of 2011. As a result, comparing before and after sub-prime crisis, housing price is more influenced by its own variation or Jeonse price's variation instead of interest rate and KOSPI. Both before and after sub-prime financial crisis, Jeonse price is also influenced by its own variation and housing price. While after sub-prime financial crisis, influences of Producer Price Index, KOSPI and interest rate were weakened, influence of real GDP is expanded. As housing price and housing rent are more influenced by real economy factors such as GDP, its own variation than before sub-prime financial crisis, the recent trend that the house prices is declined is difficult to be converted, considering domestic economic recession and uncertainty, continued by Europe financial crisis. In the future to activate the housing business, it ia necessary to promote purchasing power rather than relaxation of financial and supply regulation.

• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• v.2 no.4
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• pp.32-41
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• 2012

In recent times, multi-centralization and decentralization as well as large Capital area and suburbanization in the spatial structure of capital area. With rapid growth, urbanization and industrialization are unsystematic, and growth inequality between regions caused negative effects such as discordant centralization and decentralization, fluctuating land value, and gap between living conditions. Accordingly, this study analyzed urban spatial indexes by the self-governed body in the capital area such as Seoul, Incheon, and Gyeonggi province for the analysis of the regional inequality phenomenon. We examined the characteristics of temporal and spatial changes in urban spatial structure in the capital area by utilizing the distribution pattern and density of city indexes such as population, employment, etc, and then drew the commonality of those factors through factor analysis. We evaluated the drawn results through the city standard index by each city, conducted factor score analysis, and identified the interaction between each factor and Housing Purchase Price Composite Indices index, housing rent price index(Housing Jeonse Price Composite Indices), land price fluctuation rate, diffusion ratio of house, and financial independence.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.16 no.9
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• pp.6315-6324
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• 2015

This study analyses the effects of household finances on rental price of apartment in Seoul which play a major role in real estate policy. We estimate VAR models using time series data. Economy variables such as sales price of apartment in Seoul, consumer price index, hiring rate, real GNI and loan amount of housing mortgage, which relate to household finances and influence the rental price of apartment, are used for estimation. The main findings are as follows. In the short term, the rental price of apartment is impacted by economy variables. Specifically, Relative contributions of variation in rental price of apartment through structural shock of economy variables are most influenced by their own. However, in the long term, household variables are more influential to the rental price of apartment. These results are expected to contribute to establish housing price stabilization policies through understanding the relationship between economy variables and rental price of apartment.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.1573-1583
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• 2016

It is necessary to check mutual correlations between related variables because housing prices are influenced by a lot of variables of the economy both internally and externally. In this paper, employing the Granger causality test, we have validated interrelated relationship between the variables. In addition, there is cointegration associations in the results of the cointegration test between the variables. Therefore, an analysis using a vector error correction model including an error correction term has been attempted. As a result of the empirical comparative analysis of the forecasting performance with ARIMA and VAR models, it is confirmed that the forecasting performance by vector error correction model is superior to those of the former two models.