• 기술혁신연구
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.178-207
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• 1998

This article suggests a methodology to decide the priority of investment project for venture business under the dynamic circumstance. By the Monte Carlo procedure on the probability distribution of cost and revenue, the model simulates the investment project to estimate profit ratio and risk. The profit ratio is calculated on the yearly basis for the relative comparison. The project risk is calculated as semi-variance under the target yield. After sufficient simulations in this fashion for several projects, the efficient projects with more profit and less risk are selected by the dominance principle. Then the regression equation of the selected projects is produced to find the relative value of the projects. The relative value is obtained through dividing the raw profit ratio by the estimated one on the equation. This value shows the degree to which the simulated project yields over the equation. The priority of investment is decided by this value. An examplary venture business of chemical development for semi-conductor is presented as a case study.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제40권1호
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• pp.50-56
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• 2017

The IRR (internal rate of return) is often used by investors for the evaluation of engineering projects. Unfortunately, it is widely known that it has serial flaws. Also, External rate of returns (ERRs) such as ARR (Average Rate of Return) or MIRR (MIRR, Modified Internal Rate of Return) do not differentiate between the real investment and the expenditure. The PRR (Productive rate of return) is faithful to the conception of the return on investment. The PRR uses the effective investment instead of the initial investment. In this paper, we examined two cases of the engineering project. the one is a traditional engineering project with financing activity, another is the project with R&D. Although the IRR has only one value, it overestimates or underestimate profitabilities of Engineering Projects. The ARR and the MARR assume that a returned cash reinvest other projects or assets instead of the project currently executing. Thus they are only one value of a project's profitability, unlike the IRR. But the ARR does not classify into the effective investment and non-investment expenditure. It only accepts an initial expenditure as for an investment. The MIRR also fails to classify into the investment and the expenditure. It has an error of making a loss down as the investment. The IRR works as efficiently as a NPW (Net Present Worth). It clearly expresses a rate of return in respect of an investment in an engineering project with a loan. And it shows its ability in an engineering project with a R&D investment.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2008년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.750-761
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• 2008

The social and economical value assessment of railway facilities implies unaccountable values such as: reduction of travel time, reduction of car accident, reduction of air pollution. However, the value of railway facilities has been evaluated as the transportation and management results. The investment and management results of railway need to be considered objectively. Therefore, this study established the economical value assessment method of railway facilities composed of 10 items of economical value through the existing a preliminary assessment investigation, a manual of railway investment assessment, paper study. In addition, this study proposed the strategy for the value assessment of railway facilities before and after.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제33권7호
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• pp.469-476
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• 2009

Recent collapse of shipping market right after unprecedent surge clearly demonstrates that shipping industry is extremely risky. Due to the volatile movements of the freight rates, investors tend to ask higher rate of return; higher required return reduces the total net present value of the investment project. For several decades, the Discounted Cash Flow(DCF hereafter) analysis has been the most frequently used valuation technique. However, the main problem of the DCF analysis is its assumption that the discount rate would stay the same during the project life. In other words, it usually does not address the decisions that managers have after a project has been accepted. The purpose of this study is investigate a new valuation method of investment: the Real Option Analysis(ROA hereafter) on ship investment. By replacing the existing valuation methods with the new one, the research will present a new perspective on investment with uncertainty. While uncertainty increases risk of investment and consequently discounts the value of it in the traditional feasibility analysis, in the ROA, a new valuation method which will be addressed in the research, uncertainty means some additional value of flexibility so that the tool can help investors produce more accurate decisions. Contrary to the DCF analysis, the ROA takes managerial flexibilities into account. In reality, capital budgeting and project management is typically dynamic, rather than static in nature. The ROA finds and assesses the values of managerial flexibilities or real options in the investments. The main structures of the research will be as follows: (1) overview of the ship investment project, (2) evaluation of the project by the Net Present Value analysis, (3) evaluation of the same project by the Real Option Analysis, (4) comparision of the two techniques.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.126-134
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• 2003

Among a variety of models proposed by so far to calculate the real options value when the investment decision about the underlying project may be delayed, the Black-Scholes and the binomial lattice models have been widely used and discussed by academics and practitioners. However these two models do not provide us with intuition into how it is constructed and what it does really mean. In this paper, we will therefore explore its components and practically more intuitive meaning. With the components explored, we developed the mathematical model to calculate the real options value and thus strategic net present value, based on the opportunity cost concept, for which the investment decision about the underlying project is postponed by one year. We will finally present a short illustrative example for readers better understanding on the model proposed in the paper.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.55-72
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• 2020

Purpose - In this paper, we provide recommendations for Korea's long-term direction and strategic measures to attract inward foreign direct investment (FDI) in response to Japan's export regulations. In doing so, we analyze the current situation and characteristics of trade between Korea and Japan, focusing on the parts and materials industry, which is particularly affected by Japan's trade regulations. Design/methodology - Based on the analysis of five successful inward FDI cases (e.g. Toray, IGK, Delkor, GlobalWafers, DuPont) and statistic trend review in the parts and materials industry, we consider various factors pertaining to successful inward FDI in Korea and propose valuable investment attraction strategies. Findings - For a successful investment attraction strategy, we studied some statistical trends in the internal and external environments of the parts and materials industry and successful investment attraction cases in Korea. We have found that in order to increase the probability of success in attracting investment, we need a mid-to long-term strategy considering multiple factors such as "Production-oriented, Demand-linked, Global Value Chain (VGC) linked, and Policy-linked investment attraction." Originality/value - We suggest several specific measures and important strategic implications for the Korean government and firm's managers to attract inward FDI successfully.

• 무역학회지
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• 제44권1호
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• pp.115-127
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• 2019

In recent years, the Indian market has gained worldwide attention in the global trading business environment. Korean companies are also seeking to enter the indian market, and their foreign trade investment strategy is based on the Global Value Chain(GVC). In this study, we examine difference from traditional investment strategy to GVC investment strategy in the age of 4IR(fourth industrial revolution) through using POLS model(pooled least square), FEM(fixed effect model), and REM(randomized effect model). Based on the analysis of 84 monthly data related to the FDI and international trade effects between Korea and India, the following results were found. As Korean companies increased their share of export to the Indian market and export to the Indian market, the number of new companies directly invested in overseas market increased. However, the amount of import into the Indian market was relatively low in relation to the number of new companies directly in overseas markets. As a result of analyzing the investment strategy of the GVC in India, the GVC has shifted from manufacturing to process upgrading to enter the GVC on Smile Curve.

• 경영과학
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.29-39
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• 2001

Traditionally, companies have been concerned with making an investment decision either to go now or never to go forever. However, owing to the development of the theory of options pricing in a financial investment field and its introduction to the appraisal of real investments in these days, we are now partially allowed to derive the value of a managerial flexibility of real investment projects. In this paper, we derived a general mathematical model to price the option value of real investment projects assuming that they have only one-period of time under which uncertainty exists. This mathematical model was developed based on the opportunity cost concept. We will show a simple numerical example to illustrate how the mathematical model works comparing it with the existing models.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.191-211
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• 2005

This study investigates the decision criteria used in the context of IT investment decision making and empirically analyzes the impact of IT project size and types on the importance of decision criteria. 5 criteria which have been extracted from the previous studies and industry practices are budget, financial benefits. strategic value. risk, and the degree of proposer's eagerness. Data of 120 IT project proposals have been collected from 5 companies including bank, insurance. and stock trading company. As results of ANOVA test. 7 out of 10 hypothesis have been accepted statistically. That is. the bigger the project size. the higher the evaluation weight of project budget and risk criteria and the lower the weight of proposer's eagerness. And in case of the infrastructure investment type. the emphasis is placed more on strategic value and risk criteria and less on financial benefit and proposer's eagerness. These findings provide insights for both IT practitioners and researchers.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제39권2호
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• pp.109-123
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• 2008

This study is aimed to establish an investment decision model for offshore aquaculture project of rock bream in Korea using a certainty equivalent method (CEM) based on the expected utility theory and to investigate its economic viability under risk and uncertainty. In the analysis with CEM, the effects of risk attitude and risk level on investment and risk premium were examined and the impacts of various risk and uncertainty factors on the investment decision were also assessed. In addition, the outcomes were compared to those evaluated by the traditional net present value (NPV) method. Results show that risk premium grew as the investors became more risk averse and uncertainty level (the variance of NPV) increased. Consequently, the certainty equivalent value was predicted to decrease from the value assessed by the traditional NPV method.