• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제18권2호
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• pp.143-161
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• 2014

This paper examines the effects of global liquidity expansion on advanced and emerging economies by using panel VAR methodology. The results show that global liquidity expansion tends to boost economy by increasing GDP growth and stock prices. However, we find that the effects are asymmetric. The effects of global liquidity on GDP and stock prices are greater and more persistent in emerging economies than in liquidity recipient advanced economies. Moreover, global liquidity appreciates emerging economies' exchange rates more persistently than those of advanced economies. Lastly, while global liquidity expansion increases foreign portfolio investment inflows to Asian countries and liquidity recipient advanced economies, there is no evidence for Latin American countries.

• 문화기술의 융합
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• 제9권6호
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• pp.251-256
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• 2023

국제 경유 가격은 산업, 교통 및 에너지 생산과 같은 여러 분야에서 중요한 역할을 수행하며, 세계 경제와 국제 무역에도 큰 영향을 미친다. 특히, 국제 경유 가격의 상승은 소비자에게 부담을 주고 인플레이션의 원인이 될 수있다. 그러나 기존 연구들은 주로 휘발유에 초점을 맞추어 진행되었다. 따라서 본 연구는 국제 경유 가격 예측 모델을 제안하고자 한다. 이를 위해 다양한 세계 경제 지표들을 활용하여 머신러닝 방법론 중 하나인 선형 회귀 모델로 학습한다. 해당 모델은 세계 경제 지표들과 국제 경유 가격 간의 관계를 명확하게 파악함과 동시에 높은 정확도로 예측한다. 이는 시장 변화를 비롯한 전반적인 경제 흐름 파악에 도움이 될 것으로 기대된다.

• KIEE International Transactions on Power Engineering
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• 제5A권3호
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• pp.300-302
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• 2005

We employ a new technique to account for extreme values when using the generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) methodology to forecast day-ahead electricity prices in New York City.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제32권1호
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• pp.15-39
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• 2001

The study, using the input-output analysis of 402 industrial sectors by Bank of Korea(BOK) and the resulting outcomes of price model, aims to evaluate the spillover effects the international fluctuations in crude oil prices have on the commodities prices and consequently, analyse the management and profitability of the offshore fisheries in Korea. At present, the fisher men are provided with tax-free oils for their fishing operations as specified under the Special Tax Treatment Control Law. However, the exhaustion of marine resources and new international fisheries agreements, which resulted in the loss of fishing grounds, made the stable catch even more unpredictable and the hike in the price of the international crude oil would have adverse effects on the fishing industry. The study revealed that the increasing rise in the price of crude oil would exert sweeping spillover effects on other industry sectors in general and accordingly, lead to a poorer performance by fisheries. The price spillover coefficients for the diesel oil was 0.6026, which would translate into the 42.6% increase in the prices of oil when the increase ratio of 73.3% for the base crude oil was applied based on the calculation methods employed in the study. This in turn increased the ratio of diesel oil required in the offshore fisheries from 23.3% to 16.6%, diminishing the ratio of current net profits to minus 2.0% from 4.2% otherwise. By fishing type, the Pair Trawl suffered current net profits loss most by ratio of minus 9.4% and other fisheries such as Coastal Stow Nets, Coastal Angling, Danish Sein also suffered ratio of 7% and more in the loss of current net profits. With the deteriorating fishing performance, coupled with the increasing international crude oil prices, it is urgently required that the authorities concerned deliberate in depth on such schemes as follows in efforts to secure stable fishing production. First, provision of large-scale storage facilities for oil is needed to timely adapt to the fluctuations in international crude oil prices. Secondly, in line with the stabilization of tax-free oil prices, duty levied on oils for fishing and tax collected from the refineries need to be tax-exempt. Thirdly, the beneficiaries from the provision of tax-free oil should be broadened, not limited to special fishing operation only. Fourth, investment in stabilization of the oil prices should be encouraged, possibly through funding from the formation of fisheries development funds underway.

• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.62-71
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• 2024

The Study analyzed the effect of private education costs and housing prices on the total fertility rates in 16 metropolitan cities in Korea from 2009 to 2021, and estimated the contribution rates of each variable on the decrease in the total fertility rate. Using a dynamic panel data model considering the time series correlation of the total fertility rates, the total fertility rates for the year was positively (+) affected by the total fertility rates of the previous year, and the increase in apartment sales and Jeonse prices in the previous year reduced the total fertility rates. In addition, the increase in private education costs per capita in the previous year was analyzed to consistently reduce the total fertility rates.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권4호
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• pp.601-611
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• 2021

There are many asset prices which are interlinked and have a bearing on the stock market index. Studies have shown that the interrelationship among these asset prices vary and are inconsistent. The ultimate aim of this study is to examine the dynamic relationship between gold price, oil price, exchange rate and stock index. Monthly time series data has been utilized by the researcher to examine the interrelationship between four variables. The relationship among stock exchange rate index, oil price and gold price have been undertaken using regression and granger causality test. The results indicate that the exchange rate and oil price have an indirect influence on NIFTY; whereas gold price had a direct impact on NIFTY. It is evident from the results that volatility in the price of gold is mainly dependent on the exchange rate and vice versa. All the variables affect NIFTY in some way or the other. However, gold has a direct and vital relationship. From the study findings, it can be concluded that macroeconomic variables like commodity prices and foreign exchange rate, gold and oil, have a strong relationship on the return on securities at the national stock exchange of India.

• KIEE International Transactions on Power Engineering
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• 제4A권3호
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• pp.159-166
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• 2004

Forecasting prices in electricity markets is critical for consumers and producers in planning their operations and managing their price risk. We utilize the generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) method to forecast the electricity prices in two regions of New York： New York City and Central New York State. We contrast the one-day forecasts of the GARCH against techniques such as dynamic regression, transfer function models, and exponential smoothing. We also examine the effect on our forecasting of omitting some of the extreme values in the electricity prices. We show that accounting for the extreme values and the heteroskedactic variance in the electricity price time-series can significantly improve the accuracy of the forecasting. Additionally, we document the higher volatility in New York City electricity prices. Differences in volatility between regions are important in the pricing of electricity options and for analyzing market performance.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권12호
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• pp.123-129
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• 2020

This scholarly work is an effort to capture the effects of oil prices on the actual exchange rate between dollar and rupee. This is done with reference to the U.S. dollar as oil prices are marked in USD (U.S. Dollar) in the international market, and India is among the top five importers of oil. Using monthly data from January 2001 to May 2020. The study used the real GDP, money supply, short-term interest rate difference between two countries, and inflation apart from the crude oil prices per barrel as the factors that help define the exchange rate. The analysis, through cointegration and vector error correction method (VECM), suggests long and short-run causality amid prices of oil and the rate of exchange fluctuations. Oil prices are found to be negatively related to the exchange rate in the long term but positively related in the short term. The result of the Wald test also indicates the short-run causation from the short-term interest rate and the prices of crude oil towards the exchange rate. The present study shows that oil prices are evidence of the existence of short-term and long-term driving associations with short-term interest rates and exchange rates.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권9호
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• pp.201-208
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• 2020

Terms of trade is an important indicator of the welfare gains from international trade to the exporting country. Terms of trade of oil-exporting countries are hypothesized to depend primarily on oil prices. The study assesses the relation between oil prices and the terms of trade of Saudi Arabia. The study uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag method to determine the cointegration between the country's terms of trade and oil prices for the period 2000-2018. The data for net barter terms of trade is taken from World Development Indicators and oil price is taken from Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency. The results show that oil prices and terms of trade are cointegrated and any disequilibrium between the two variables is corrected by 35% in a year. The study also reports a positive relationship between the two items, both in the short run and long run. Diagnostic tests indicate the model to be fit. The results suggest that, for a primarily oil-producing country like Saudi Arabia, the terms of trade depend on oil prices. The study fills the gap in the literature on the study of terms of trade for Saudi Arabia for the last few years, where there has been a high volatility in oil prices.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권5호
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• pp.769-775
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• 2021

The objective of this research was to analyze the factors influencing the farm-gate shrimp prices in Thailand using monthly time series from January 2001 to December 2019. The econometric methodology was employed to satisfy the purpose, consisting of the cointegration test for revealing the long-run relationship and equilibrium elasticity between the variables as well as the error correction model for detecting speed adjustment to shock responses. The empirical results revealed that (1) the export shrimp prices, shrimp production in the country, and shrimp export volume indicated a long-run relationship running to the farm-gate shrimp prices in Thailand with the size of equilibrium elasticity equal to 1.083%, -0.256%, and 0.123, respectively, and (2) the farm-gate shrimp prices in Thailand would adjust to the equilibrium line with a speed equal to 20.147% if there was any kind of incident or shock which caused the relationship to deviate from the equilibrium point. There was no relationship in terms of global shrimp prices and the exchange rate for farm-gate shrimp prices in Thailand. The recommendations should emphasize the varieties of shrimp products for export to other countries beyond the main trading markets nowadays to reduce risks and fluctuations in the export prices of shrimp products.