• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.167-194
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• 2019

This research starts from the four basic concepts of incentive incompatibility, limited information, myopia and decision variable which are confronted when making decisions in keyword bidding. In order to make these concept concrete, four framework approaches are designed as follows; Strategic approach for the incentive incompatibility, Statistical approach for the limited information, Alternative optimization for myopia, and New model approach for decision variable. The purpose of this research is to propose the statistical optimization model in constructing the portfolio of Sponsored Search Advertising (SSA) in the Sponsor's perspective through empirical tests which can be used in portfolio decision making. Previous research up to date formulates the CTR estimation model using CPC, Rank, Impression, CVR, etc., individually or collectively as the independent variables. However, many of the variables are not controllable in keyword bidding. Only CPC and Rank can be used as decision variables in the bidding system. Classical SSA model is designed on the basic assumption that the CPC is the decision variable and CTR is the response variable. However, this classical model has so many huddles in the estimation of CTR. The main problem is the uncertainty between CPC and Rank. In keyword bid, CPC is continuously fluctuating even at the same Rank. This uncertainty usually raises questions about the credibility of CTR, along with the practical management problems. Sponsors make decisions in keyword bids under the limited information, and the strategic portfolio approach based on statistical models is necessary. In order to solve the problem in Classical SSA model, the New SSA model frame is designed on the basic assumption that Rank is the decision variable. Rank is proposed as the best decision variable in predicting the CTR in many papers. Further, most of the search engine platforms provide the options and algorithms to make it possible to bid with Rank. Sponsors can participate in the keyword bidding with Rank. Therefore, this paper tries to test the validity of this new SSA model and the applicability to construct the optimal portfolio in keyword bidding. Research process is as follows; In order to perform the optimization analysis in constructing the keyword portfolio under the New SSA model, this study proposes the criteria for categorizing the keywords, selects the representing keywords for each category, shows the non-linearity relationship, screens the scenarios for CTR and CPC estimation, selects the best fit model through Goodness-of-Fit (GOF) test, formulates the optimization models, confirms the Spillover effects, and suggests the modified optimization model reflecting Spillover and some strategic recommendations. Tests of Optimization models using these CTR/CPC estimation models are empirically performed with the objective functions of (1) maximizing CTR (CTR optimization model) and of (2) maximizing expected profit reflecting CVR (namely, CVR optimization model). Both of the CTR and CVR optimization test result show that the suggested SSA model confirms the significant improvements and this model is valid in constructing the keyword portfolio using the CTR/CPC estimation models suggested in this study. However, one critical problem is found in the CVR optimization model. Important keywords are excluded from the keyword portfolio due to the myopia of the immediate low profit at present. In order to solve this problem, Markov Chain analysis is carried out and the concept of Core Transit Keyword (CTK) and Expected Opportunity Profit (EOP) are introduced. The Revised CVR Optimization model is proposed and is tested and shows validity in constructing the portfolio. Strategic guidelines and insights are as follows; Brand keywords are usually dominant in almost every aspects of CTR, CVR, the expected profit, etc. Now, it is found that the Generic keywords are the CTK and have the spillover potentials which might increase consumers awareness and lead them to Brand keyword. That's why the Generic keyword should be focused in the keyword bidding. The contribution of the thesis is to propose the novel SSA model based on Rank as decision variable, to propose to manage the keyword portfolio by categories according to the characteristics of keywords, to propose the statistical modelling and managing based on the Rank in constructing the keyword portfolio, and to perform empirical tests and propose a new strategic guidelines to focus on the CTK and to propose the modified CVR optimization objective function reflecting the spillover effect in stead of the previous expected profit models.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.1-22
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• 2017

Analysis of future business or investment opportunities, such as business feasibility analysis and company or technology valuation, necessitate objective estimation on the relevant market and expected sales. While there are various ways to classify the estimation methods of these new sales or market size, they can be broadly divided into top-down and bottom-up approaches by benchmark references. Both methods, however, require a lot of resources and time. Therefore, we propose a data-based intelligent demand forecasting system to support evaluation of new business. This study focuses on analogical forecasting, one of the traditional quantitative forecasting methods, to develop sales forecasting intelligence systems for new businesses. Instead of simply estimating sales for a few years, we hereby propose a method of estimating the sales of new businesses by using the initial sales and the sales growth rate of similar companies. To demonstrate the appropriateness of this method, it is examined whether the sales performance of recently established companies in the same industry category in Korea can be utilized as a reference variable for the analogical forecasting. In this study, we examined whether the phenomenon of "mean reversion" was observed in the sales of start-up companies in order to identify errors in estimating sales of new businesses based on industry sales growth rate and whether the differences in business environment resulting from the different timing of business launch affects growth rate. We also conducted analyses of variance (ANOVA) and latent growth model (LGM) to identify differences in sales growth rates by industry category. Based on the results, we proposed industry-specific range and linear forecasting models. This study analyzed the sales of only 150,000 start-up companies in Korea in the last 10 years, and identified that the average growth rate of start-ups in Korea is higher than the industry average in the first few years, but it shortly shows the phenomenon of mean-reversion. In addition, although the start-up founding juncture affects the sales growth rate, it is not high significantly and the sales growth rate can be different according to the industry classification. Utilizing both this phenomenon and the performance of start-up companies in relevant industries, we have proposed two models of new business sales based on the sales growth rate. The method proposed in this study makes it possible to objectively and quickly estimate the sales of new business by industry, and it is expected to provide reference information to judge whether sales estimated by other methods (top-down/bottom-up approach) pass the bounds from ordinary cases in relevant industry. In particular, the results of this study can be practically used as useful reference information for business feasibility analysis or technical valuation for entering new business. When using the existing top-down method, it can be used to set the range of market size or market share. As well, when using the bottom-up method, the estimation period may be set in accordance of the mean reverting period information for the growth rate. The two models proposed in this study will enable rapid and objective sales estimation of new businesses, and are expected to improve the efficiency of business feasibility analysis and technology valuation process by developing intelligent information system. In academic perspectives, it is a very important discovery that the phenomenon of 'mean reversion' is found among start-up companies out of general small-and-medium enterprises (SMEs) as well as stable companies such as listed companies. In particular, there exists the significance of this study in that over the large-scale data the mean reverting phenomenon of the start-up firms' sales growth rate is different from that of the listed companies, and that there is a difference in each industry. If a linear model, which is useful for estimating the sales of a specific company, is highly likely to be utilized in practical aspects, it can be explained that the range model, which can be used for the estimation method of the sales of the unspecified firms, is highly likely to be used in political aspects. It implies that when analyzing the business activities and performance of a specific industry group or enterprise group there is political usability in that the range model enables to provide references and compare them by data based start-up sales forecasting system.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.117-137
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• 2009

Recently, intelligent traffic information systems have enabled people to forecast traffic conditions before hitting the road. These convenient systems operate on the basis of data reflecting current road and traffic conditions as well as distance-based data between locations. Thanks to the rapid development of ubiquitous computing, tremendous context data have become readily available making vehicle route planning easier than ever. Previous research in relation to optimization of vehicle route planning merely focused on finding the optimal distance between locations. Contexts reflecting the road and traffic conditions were then not seriously treated as a way to resolve the optimal routing problems based on distance-based route planning, because this kind of information does not have much significant impact on traffic routing until a a complex traffic situation arises. Further, it was also not easy to take into full account the traffic contexts for resolving optimal routing problems because predicting the dynamic traffic situations was regarded a daunting task. However, with rapid increase in traffic complexity the importance of developing contexts reflecting data related to moving costs has emerged. Hence, this research proposes a framework designed to resolve an optimal route planning problem by taking full account of additional moving cost such as road traffic cost and weather cost, among others. Recent technological development particularly in the ubiquitous computing environment has facilitated the collection of such data. This framework is based on the contexts of time, traffic, and environment, which addresses the following issues. First, we clarify and classify the diverse contexts that affect a vehicle's velocity and estimates the optimization of moving cost based on dynamic programming that accounts for the context cost according to the variance of contexts. Second, the velocity reduction rate is applied to find the optimal route (shortest path) using the context data on the current traffic condition. The velocity reduction rate infers to the degree of possible velocity including moving vehicles' considerable road and traffic contexts, indicating the statistical or experimental data. Knowledge generated in this papercan be referenced by several organizations which deal with road and traffic data. Third, in experimentation, we evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed context-based optimal route (shortest path) between locations by comparing it to the previously used distance-based shortest path. A vehicles' optimal route might change due to its diverse velocity caused by unexpected but potential dynamic situations depending on the road condition. This study includes such context variables as 'road congestion', 'work', 'accident', and 'weather' which can alter the traffic condition. The contexts can affect moving vehicle's velocity on the road. Since these context variables except for 'weather' are related to road conditions, relevant data were provided by the Korea Expressway Corporation. The 'weather'-related data were attained from the Korea Meteorological Administration. The aware contexts are classified contexts causing reduction of vehicles' velocity which determines the velocity reduction rate. To find the optimal route (shortest path), we introduced the velocity reduction rate in the context for calculating a vehicle's velocity reflecting composite contexts when one event synchronizes with another. We then proposed a context-based optimal route (shortest path) algorithm based on the dynamic programming. The algorithm is composed of three steps. In the first initialization step, departure and destination locations are given, and the path step is initialized as 0. In the second step, moving costs including composite contexts into account between locations on path are estimated using the velocity reduction rate by context as increasing path steps. In the third step, the optimal route (shortest path) is retrieved through back-tracking. In the provided research model, we designed a framework to account for context awareness, moving cost estimation (taking both composite and single contexts into account), and optimal route (shortest path) algorithm (based on dynamic programming). Through illustrative experimentation using the Wilcoxon signed rank test, we proved that context-based route planning is much more effective than distance-based route planning., In addition, we found that the optimal solution (shortest paths) through the distance-based route planning might not be optimized in real situation because road condition is very dynamic and unpredictable while affecting most vehicles' moving costs. For further study, while more information is needed for a more accurate estimation of moving vehicles' costs, this study still stands viable in the applications to reduce moving costs by effective route planning. For instance, it could be applied to deliverers' decision making to enhance their decision satisfaction when they meet unpredictable dynamic situations in moving vehicles on the road. Overall, we conclude that taking into account the contexts as a part of costs is a meaningful and sensible approach to in resolving the optimal route problem.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.69-86
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• 1998

The purpose of velop the indexing algorithm of secondary legal information by the study of characteristics of legal information, to compare the indexing system using controlled vocabulary to the indexing system using natural language in the secondary legal information full-text databases, and to prove propriety and superiority of the indexing system using controlled vocabulary. The results are as follows; 1)The indexing system using controlled vocabulary in the secondary legal information full-text databases has more effectiveness than the indexing system using natural language, in the recall rate, the precision rate, the distribution of propriety, and the faculty of searching for the unique proper-records which the indexing system using natural language fans to find 2)The indexing system which adds more words to the controlled vocabulary in the secondary legal information full-text databases does not better effectiveness in the retail rate, the precision rate, comparing to the indexing system using controlled vocabulary. 3)The indexing system using word-added controlled vocabulary with an extra weight in the secondary legal information full-text databases does not better effectiveness in the recall rate, the precision rate, comparing to the indexing system using word-added controlled vocabulary without an extra weight. This study indicates that it is necessary to have characteristic information the information experts recognize - that is to say, experimental and inherent knowledge only human being can have built-in into the system rather than to approach the information system by the linguistic, statistic or structuralistic way, and it can be more essential and intelligent information system.

• Proceedings of the Korea Inteligent Information System Society Conference
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• 1999.10a
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• pp.291-300
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• 1999

인터넷을 기반으로 한 정보통신의 급속한 발전이라는 기업환경의 변화에 적응하기 위해서 기업은 점차 모든 경영시스템을 인터넷을 기반으로 하도록 변화시키고 있을 뿐만 아니라, 기업 조직 또한 전세계를 기반으로한 글로벌 기업 형태로 변화하고 있다. 이러한 급속한 경영환경의 변화로 인해서 기업 내에서는 종전과는 다른 형태의 부서간 상호의사결정조정 과정이 필요하게 되었다. 일반 기업들을 대상으로 한 상호의사결정의 지원과정에 대해서는 기존에 많은 연구들이 있었으나 글로벌기업과 같은 네트워크 형태의 새로운 형태의 기업에 있어서의 상호의사결정과정을 지원할 수 있는 의사결정지원시스템에 대해서는 단순한 그룹의사결정지원시스템 또는 분산의사결정지원시스템과 같은 연구들이 주를 이루고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 인터넷 특히, 웹을 기반으로 한 기업의 글로벌경영 및 분산 경영에서 비롯되는 부서간 상호의사결정이라는 문제를 효율적으로 지원할 수 있는 기업의 글로벌경영 및 분산 경영에서 비롯되는 부서간 상호의사결정이라는 문제를 효율적으로 지원할 수 있는 메커니즘을 제시하고 이에 기반한 프로토타입 형태의 시스템을 구현하여 성능을 검증하고자 한다. 특히, 기업 내에서 가장 대표적으로 상호의사결정지원이 필요한 생산과 마케팅 부서를 대상으로 상호의사결정지원 메커니즘을 개발하고 실험을 진행하였다. 그 결과 글로벌 기업내의 생산과 마케팅 부서간 상호의사결정을 효율적으로 지원 할 수 있는 상호조정 메카니즘인 개선된 PROMISE(PROduction and Marketing Interface Support Environment)를 기반으로 한 웹 분산의사결정지원시스템 (Web-DSS : Web-Decision Support Systems)을 제안하는 바이다.자대상 벤처기업의 선정을 위한 전문가시스템을 구축중이다.의 밀도를 비재무적 지표변수로 산정하여 로지스틱회귀 분석과 인공신경망 기법으로 검증하였다. 로지스틱회귀분석 결과에서는 재무적 지표변수 모형의 전체적 예측적중률이 87.50%인 반면에 재무/비재무적 지표모형은 90.18%로서 비재무적 지표변수 사용에 대한 개선의 효과가 나타났다. 표본기업들을 훈련과 시험용으로 구분하여 분석한 결과는 전체적으로 재무/비재무적 지표를 고려한 인공신경망기법의 예측적중률이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 즉, 로지스틱회귀 분석의 재무적 지표모형은 훈련, 시험용이 84.45%, 85.10%인 반면, 재무/비재무적 지표모형은 84.45%, 85.08%로서 거의 동일한 예측적중률을 가졌으나 인공신경망기법 분석에서는 재무적 지표모형이 92.23%, 85.10%인 반면, 재무/비재무적 지표모형에서는 91.12%, 88.06%로서 향상된 예측적중률을 나타내었다.ting LMS according to increasing the step-size parameter $\mu$ in the experimentally computed. learning curve. Also we find that convergence speed of proposed algorithm is increased by (B+1) time proportional to B which B is the number of recycled data buffer without complexity of computation. Adaptive transversal filter with proposed data recycling buffer

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.61-74
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• 2010

ITS (Intelligent transportation systems) collects real-time traffic data, and accumulates vest historical data. But tremendous historical data has not been managed and employed efficiently. With the introduction of data management systems like ADMS (Archived Data Management System), the potentiality of huge historical data dramatically surfs up. However, traffic data in any data management system includes missing values in nature, and one of major obstacles in applying these data has been the missing data because it makes an entire dataset useless every so often. For these reasons, imputation techniques take a key role in data management systems. To address these limitations, this paper presents a promising imputation technique which could be mounted in data management systems and robustly generates the estimations for missing values included in historical data. The developed model, based on NPR (Non-Parametric Regression) approach, employs various traffic data patterns in historical data and is designated for practical requirements such as the minimization of parameters, computational speed, the imputation of various types of missing data, and multiple imputation. The model was tested under the conditions of various missing data types. The results showed that the model outperforms reported existing approaches in the side of prediction accuracy, and meets the computational speed required to be mounted in traffic data management systems.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.123-151
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• 2005

In the world of Web pages, there are oceans of documents in natural language texts and tables. To extract rules from Web pages and maintain consistency between them, we have developed the framework of XRML(extensible Rule Markup Language). XRML allows the identification of rules on Web pages and generates the identified rules automatically. For this purpose, we have designed the Rule Identification Markup Language (RIML) that is similar to the formal Rule Structure Markup Language (RSML), both as pares of XRML. RIML is designed to identify rules not only from texts, but also from tables on Web pages, and to transform to the formal rules in RSは syntax automatically. While designing RIML, we considered the features of sharing variables and values, omitted terms, and synonyms. Using these features, rules can be identified or changed once, automatically generating their corresponding RSML rules. We have conducted an experiment to evaluate the effect of the RIML approach with real world Web pages of Amazon.com, BamesandNoble.com, and Powells.com We found that $97.7\%$ of the rules can be detected on the Web pages, and the completeness of generated rule components is $88.5\%$. This is good proof that XRML can facilitate the extraction and maintenance of rules from Web pages while building expert systems in the Semantic Web environment.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.17-35
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• 2011

The collective intelligence is a common-based production by the collaboration and competition of many peer individuals. In other words, it is the aggregation of individual intelligence to lead the wisdom of crowd. Recently, the utilization of the collective intelligence has become one of the emerging research areas, since it has been adopted as an important principle of web 2.0 to aim openness, sharing and participation. This paper introduces an approach to seek the collective intelligence by cognition of the relation and interaction among individual participants. It describes a methodology well-suited to evaluate individual intelligence in information retrieval and classification as an application field. The research investigates how to derive and represent such cognitive intelligence from individuals through the application of fuzzy relational theory to personal construct theory and knowledge grid technique. Crucial to this research is to implement formally and process interpretatively the cognitive knowledge of participants who makes the mutual relation and social interaction. What is needed is a technique to analyze cognitive intelligence structure in the form of Hasse diagram, which is an instantiation of this perceptive intelligence of human beings. The search for the collective intelligence requires a theory of similarity to deal with underlying problems; clustering of social subgroups of individuals through identification of individual intelligence and commonality among intelligence and then elicitation of collective intelligence to aggregate the congruence or sharing of all the participants of the entire group. Unlike standard approaches to similarity based on statistical techniques, the method presented employs a theory of fuzzy relational products with the related computational procedures to cover issues of similarity and dissimilarity.

• Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.1-18
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• 2001

The goal of this paper is the pedagogical application of a Korean Spell/Grammar Checker to the web-based language learning system for Korean writing. To maximize the efficient instruction of our learning system \\`Urimal Baeumteo\\` we have to improve our Korean Spell/Grammar Checker. Today the NLP system\\`s performance defends on its semantic processing capability. In our Korean Spell/Grammar Checker. the tasks accomplished in the semantic level are: the detection and correction of misused derived and compound nouns in a Korean spell-checking device and the detection and correction of syntactic and semantic errors in a Korean grammars-checking device. We describe a common approach to the partial parsing using collocation rules based on the dependency grammar. To provide more detailed semantic rules. we classified nouns according to their concepts. and subcategorized verbs referring to their syntactic and semantic features. Improving a Korean Spell/Gl-Grammar Checker makes our learning system active and intelligent in a web-based environment. We acknowledge the flaws in our system: the classification of nouns based on their meanings and concepts is a time consuming task. the analytic unit of this study is principally limited to the phrases in a sentence therefore the accurate parsing of embedded sentences remains a difficult problem to solve. Concerning the web-based language learning system. it is critically important to consider its interface design and structure of its contents.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.15-32
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• 2006

The increasing complexity of the socio-economic environments makes it less and less possible for single decision-maker to consider all relevant aspects of problem. Therefore, many organizations employ groups in decision making. In this paper, we present a multiperson decision making method using fuzzy logic with linguistic quantifier when each of group members specifies imprecise judgments possibly both on performance evaluations of alternatives with respect to the multiple criteria and on the criteria. Inexact or vague preferences have appeared in the decision making literatures with a view to relaxing the burdens of preference specifications imposed to the decision-makers and thus taking into account the vagueness of human judgments. Allowing for the types of imprecise judgments in the model, however, makes more difficult a clear selection of alternative(s) that a group wants to make. So, further interactions with the decision-makers may proceed to the extent to compensate for the initial comforts of preference specifications. These interactions may not however guarantee the selection of the best alternative to implement. To circumvent this deadlock situation, we present a procedure for obtaining a satisfying solution by the use of linguistic quantifier guided aggregation which implies fuzzy majority. This is an approach to combine a prescriptive decision method via a mathematical programming and a well-established approximate solution method to aggregate multiple objects.