• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2020년도 학술발표회
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• pp.171-171
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• 2020

Decision making strategies should consider both adaptiveness and robustness in order to deal with two main characteristics of climate change: non-stationarity and deep uncertainty. Especially, robust strategies are different from traditional optimal strategies in the sense that they are satisfactory over a wider range of uncertainty and may act as a key when confronting climate change. In this study, a new framework named Robust Stochastic Dynamic Programming (R-SDP) is proposed, which couples previously developed robust optimization (RO) into the objective function and constraint of SDP. Two main approaches of RO, feasibility robustness and solution robustness, are considered in the optimization algorithm and consequently, three models to be tested are developed: conventional-SDP (CSDP), R-SDP-Feasibility (RSDP-F), and R-SDP-Solution (RSDP-S). The developed models were used to derive optimal monthly release rules in a single reservoir, and multiple simulations of the derived monthly policy under inflow scenarios with varying mean and standard deviations are undergone. Simulation results were then evaluated with a wide range of evaluation metrics from reliability, resiliency, vulnerability to additional robustness measures. Evaluation results were finally visualized with advanced visualization tools that are used in multi-objective robust decision making (MORDM) framework. As a result, RSDP-F and RSDP-S models yielded more risk averse, or conservative, results than the CSDP model, and a trade-off relationship between traditional and robustness metrics was discovered.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2021년도 학술발표회
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• pp.122-122
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• 2021

전 세계적인 기후변화로 인해 태풍과 집중호우의 빈도와 규모가 증가하고 있으며 그로 인해 수재해 대응과 수자원 관리에 많은 어려움이 따른다. 댐 운영은 이러한 수자원 관리의 중요한 요소이며 정확한 댐 유입량의 예측은 효율적인 댐 운영과 관리의 필수적인 부분이다. 최근에는 여러 분야에서 활용되고 있는 딥러닝 모델을 활용하여 댐 유입량 예측에 관한 다수의 연구들이 수행되고 있다. 특히, 수문 시계열의 장기적인 특성과 비선형적인 관계를 고려하기 위해 연속형 모의를 기반으로 하는 딥러닝 모델의 적용 및 평가와 관련 연구의 필요성이 대두되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 연속형 모의를 기반으로 하는 딥러닝 모델을 활용하여 댐 유입량 예측을 수행하고자 하며 이의 적용성을 평가하고자 한다. 적용 대상 지역으로는 안동댐 상류 유역을 선정하였으며 2006년부터 2020년까지의 시 단위 강우 및 댐 유입량 자료를 활용하였다. 선행시간(1~6시간)별 예측 유입량과 관측 유입량의 비교를 통한 정량적 평가를 수행하였다. 또한 입력 자료에 대한 과거 기간, 모델 구성, 손실함수 등에 대한 조건별 평가를 통해 예측 정확도의 변화에 대한 분석을 수행하였다. 본 연구결과를 통해, 딥러닝 기반의 댐 유입량 예측 정확도에 대한 향상과 실시간 예측을 위한 딥러닝 모델의 활용성 증대에 기여할 것으로 기대된다. 향후, 강우 예보 자료를 연계한 딥러닝 기반의 실시간 댐 유입량 예측 기법을 제안하고 이의 활용성을 평가하고자 한다.

• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지반공학회 2010년도 추계 학술발표회
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• pp.800-807
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• 2010

In this study, a series of numerical analyses has been performed in order to evaluate the performance of a full-scale closed-loop vertical ground heat exchanger constructed in Wonju. The circulation pipe HDPE, borehole and surrounding ground were modeled using FLUENT, a finite-volume method (FVM) program, for analyzing the heat transfer process of the system. Two user-defined functions (UDFs) accounting for the difference in the temperatures of the circulating inflow and outflow water and the change of the surrounding ground temperature with depth were adopted in the FLUENT model. The thermal properties of materials estimated in laboratory were used in the numerical analyses to compare the thermal efficiency of the cement grout with that of the bentonite grout used in the construction. The results of the simulation provide a verification of the in situ thermal response test data. The numerical model with the ground thermal conductivity of 4W/mK yielded the simulation result closer to the in-situ thermal response test than with the ground thermal conductivity of 3W/mK. From the results of the numerical analyses, the effective thermal conductivities of the cement and bentonite grouts were obtained to be 3.32W/mK and 2.99 W/mK, respectively.

• 대한기계학회논문집B
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• 제38권1호
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• pp.63-70
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• 2014

본 연구에서는 상대적으로 얇은 두께의 스트럿을 가진 스텐트를 적용하여 스텐트의 공극률(80%, 74% 및 64%)에 따른 뇌동맥류 내부 유동 특성 변화를 이해하고자 CFD 해석을 수행하고, 기존의 발표된 실험 결과와 비교하였다. 수치해석 방법으로는 이차의 사면체 요소(quadratic tetrahedral element) 기반의 유한요소해석(FEM) 코드를 이용하였다. 뇌동맥류 내부 평균유속 감소비의 정량적인 면에서는 실험결과와 약간의 차이를 보였으나, 스텐트 공극률에 따른 뇌동맥류 내부 유동장 패턴 및 평균유속 감소의 상대적 특성 등은 비교적 잘 일치하는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 또한 본 연구에서 고려한 가장 높은 80% 공극률을 가지는 스텐트의 경우에도 비교적 우수한 뇌동맥류 유입 유속 감소 효과를 가짐을 확인할 수 있었으며, 이보다 더 낮은 공극률을 가진 스텐트의 경우에는 약간의 추가적인 뇌동맥류 유입 유속 감소 효과를 가지나, 유속 및 벽전단응력 등의 혈류역학적 특성은 큰 변화가 없음을 알 수 있었다.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.75-96
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• 2008

A better understanding of tornado-induced wind loads is needed to improve the design of typical structures to resist these winds. An accurate understanding of the loads requires knowledge of near-ground tornado winds, but observations in this region are lacking. The first goal of this study was to verify how well a CFD model, when driven by far field radar observations and laboratory measurements, could capture the flow characteristics of both full scale and laboratory-simulated tornadoes. A second goal was to use the model to examine the sensitivity of the simulations to various parameters that might affect the laboratory simulator tornado. An understanding of near-ground winds in tornadoes will require coordinated efforts in both computational and physical simulation. The sensitivity of computational simulations of a tornado to geometric parameters and surface roughness within a domain based on the Iowa State University laboratory tornado simulator was investigated. In this study, CFD simulations of the flow field in a model domain that represents a laboratory tornado simulator were conducted using Doppler radar and laboratory velocity measurements as boundary conditions. The tornado was found to be sensitive to a variety of geometric parameters used in the numerical model. Increased surface roughness was found to reduce the tangential speed in the vortex near the ground and enlarge the core radius of the vortex. The core radius was a function of the swirl ratio while the peak tangential flow was a function of the magnitude of the total inflow velocity. The CFD simulations showed that it is possible to numerically simulate the surface winds of a tornado and control certain parameters of the laboratory simulator to influence the tornado characteristics of interest to engineers and match those of the field.

• 한국농공학회지
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• 제36권4호
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• pp.95-102
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• 1994

The series of the papers consist of three parts to describe the development, calibration, and applications of the flood forecasting models for the Youngsan Estuarine Dam located at the mouth of the Youngsan river. And this paper discusses the hydrologic model for inflow simulation at Naju station, which constitutes 64 percent of the drainage basin of 3521 .6km$^2$ in area. A simplified TANK model was formulated to simulate hourly runoff from rainfall And the model parameters were optirnized using historical storm data, and validated with the records. The results of this paper were summarized as follows. 1. The simplified TANK model was formulated to conceptualize the hourly rainfall-run-off relationships at a watershed with four tanks in series having five runoff outlets. The runoff from each outlet was assumed to be proportional to the storage exceeding a threshold value. And each tank was linked with a drainage hole from the upper one. 2. Fifteen storm events from four year records from 1984 to 1987 were selected for this study. They varied from 81 to 289rn'm The watershed averaged, hourly rainfall data were determined from those at fifteen raingaging stations using a Thiessen method. Some missing and unrealistic records at a few stations were estimated or replaced with the values determined using a reciprocal distance square method from abjacent ones. 3. An univariate scheme was adopted to calibrate the model parameters using historical records. Some of the calibrated parameters were statistically related to antecedent precipitation. And the model simulated the streamflow close to the observed, with the mean coefficient of determination of 0.94 for all storm events. 4. The simulated streamflow were in good agreement with the historical records for ungaged condition simulation runs. The mean coefficient of determination for the runs was 0.93, nearly the same as calibration runs. This may indicates that the model performs very well in flood forecasting situations for the watershed.

• 한국농공학회지
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• 제31권4호
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• pp.111-122
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• 1989

A multiple box model which is suitable for the prediction of water quality in shallow lakes with active mixing is a water quality model expected to be used widely in estuary reservoir. In this study, a multiple box water quality model for estuary reservoirs (MBQER) was developed arid the applicability of the MBQER was tested by applying data obtained from Asan-estuary reservoir. The results of this study can be summarized as follows. 1. The MBQER, dynamic water quality model, was developed to estimate 10-day water qualities of estuary reservoirs. For the proper analysis and the application of hydraulics needed to build a model, lake hydraulics was simplified by condisering only hydrological inflow and lake mixing currents. The box division in the MBQER is longitudinal one dimension for upper and middle part, and two layers for lower part of the reservoir. 2. The methods of box division for the multiple box model were ekamined and applied to Asan-estuary reservoir. For determining the number of boxes, Pe number and Pk number were used. In case of three boxes, the error by the model simplification would be estimated about 5 % Therefore, in Asan reservoir, the proper number of boxes was three. 3. The MBQER was calibrated and verified using measured data in Asan-estuary reservoir from 1986 to 1988. The Root Mean Squares(RMS) for the differences between measured data and simulated results by the MBQER were 1.10$^{\circ}$C C for water temperature, 75.8mg/1 for salinity, 0.082mg/1 for total-phosphorus showing good estimations. 4. Through the simulation of water temperature and salinity by the MBQER, the exchange flow and the mixing coefficients for the estuary lake were determined. As a result of simulation, the horizontal mixing coefficients in Asan-estuary reservoir were in the range of 1.07X 105 to 1.12X 105 cm$^2$/sec and vertical mixing coefficient was 2.90X 10-1 cm$^2$/sec.

• 한국농공학회지
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• 제32권3호
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• pp.116-129
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• 1990

A rational management of water resources in estuary reservoirs necessiates the prediction of water quality. In this study, a multiple box model for the water quality prediction was developed as a tool for the purpose of examining an adequate way to improve and maintain the water quality. Some submodels that are suitable for simulating the mixing behavior of pollutant materials in a lake were considered in this model. The model was appiled for predicting water qualities of Haenam Esturay Reservoir. The result from this study can be summarized as follows : 1.A water quality simulation model that can predict the 10-day mean value of water qualities was developed by adding some submodels that simulate the concentrations of chlorophyll-a, BOD, T-P and T-N to the existing Multiple Box Model representing the mixing and circulating of materials by the hydarulic action. 2.As input data for the model developed, the climatic data including precipitation, solar radiation, temperature, cloudness, wind speed and relative humidity, and the water buget records including the pumping discharge and the releasing discharge by drainage gate were ollected. The hydrologic data for the inflow discharge from the watershed was obtained by simulation with the aid of USDAUL-74/SNUA watershed model. Also the water quality data were measured at streams and the reservoir. 3.As a result of calibration and verification test by using four comonents of water quality such as Chlorophyll-a, BOD, T-P and T-N, it was found that the correlation coefficeints between the observed and the simulated water qualities showed greater than 0.6, therefore the capability of the model to simulate the water quality was proved. 4.The result based on the model application showed that the water quality of the Haenam Estuary Reservoir varies seasonally with the harmonic trend, however the water quality is good in winter and get worse in summer. Also it may be concluded that the current grarde of water quality in the Heanam Esutary Reservoir is ranked as grade 4 suitable only for the agricultutal use.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제42권10호
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• pp.809-824
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• 2009

한정된 기간의 짧은 유출량 기록을 갖는 댐 유역에서의 수자원 시스템 거동예측은 수문학적 지속성여부에 대한 판단이 선행 되어야 하며 가용한 시계열자료에 대한 추계학적 분석을 통하여 실시하여야 한다. 본 연구에서는 계절형 ARIMA모형을 통하여 안동댐 유역의 강우량, 증발량 및 유출량 시계열자료로 월별 수문시스템 거동을 예측하였으며, 예측된 결과를 토대로 TANK모형과 ARIMA+TANK결합모형에 의한 장기유출모의를 실시하였다. 분석결과 관측자료의 특성을 비교적 잘 반영 하였으며, 댐 유입량 예측을 위한 추계학적 결합모형의 적용가능성을 검토하였다. 이는 상대적으로 유출량자료의 보유년한이 짧은 대상유역의 시계열 수문인자 예측을 통한 유출모의의 적용으로 수자원의 중 장기 전략수립에 도움이 되리라 사료된다.

• 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.19-26
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• 2012

본 논문은 카자흐스탄의 해외직접투자와 경제성장에 관한 연관관계를 연구한다. 이 연구를 위하여 저자들은 먼서 카자흐스탄의 독립이후로 해외직접투자에 영향을 미친 요인들을 조사하고 그들의 영향정도를 파악한다. 다음으로 일인당 GDP대한 일인당 해외직접투자의 영향을 연구한다. 이러한 연구목적을 달성하기 위하여 1992년부터 2009년 사이의 자료를 World Bank Database에서 수집하여 분석하였다. 자료분석은 중회귀분석, 시계열분석 및 Granger Causality Test를 주로 사용하였다. 연구 결과에 의하면 해외직접투자에 영향을 미치는 요소는 GDP 와 economic freedom index로 나타났으며, 경제성장 또한 해외직접 투자에 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다. 특별히, 해외직접투자는 GDP 및 economic freedom index와 양의 상관관계가 있었다. 일인당 GDP에 대한 일인당 해외직접투자의 영향은 일인당 해외직접투자 1달러 증가시 일인당 GDP 30.4달러가 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구의 결과는 정책결정자들로 하여금 해외투자를 유치하고 경제성장을 촉진하는 정책결정에 유용한 정보를 제공할 것이다.