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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2009.42.10.809

Application to Evaluation of Hydrologic Time Series Forecasting for Long-Term Runoff Simulation  

Yoon, Sun-Kwon (Dept. of Civil Engineering, The University of Seoul)
Ahn, Jae-Hyun (Dept. of Civil Engineering, The Seokyeong University)
Kim, Jong-Suk (Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Maine)
Moon, Young-Il (Dept. of Civil Engineering, The University of Seoul)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.42, no.10, 2009 , pp. 809-824 More about this Journal
Abstract
Hydrological system forecasting, which is the short term runoff historical data during the limited period in dam site, is a conditional precedent of hydrological persistence by stochastic analysis. We have forecasted the monthly hydrological system from Andong dam basin data that is the rainfall, evaporation, and runoff, using the seasonal ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) model. Also we have conducted long term runoff simulations through the forecasted results of TANK model and ARIMA+TANK model. The results of analysis have been concurred to the observation data, and it has been considered for application to possibility on the stochastic model for dam inflow forecasting. Thus, the method presented in this study suggests a help to water resource mid- and long-term strategy establishment to application for runoff simulations through the forecasting variables of hydrological time series on the relatively short holding runoff data in an object basins.
Keywords
Hydrologic Time Series Forecasting; Long-term Runoff Simulation; Seasonal ARIMA; TANK Model;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 4  (Citation Analysis)
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