• 응용통계연구
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• 제28권3호
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• pp.583-592
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• 2015

영-과잉(zero-inflation) 현상은 최근 계수(count) 시계열 분석의 주요토픽으로 다루어지고 있다. 본 논문에서는 영-과잉 계수 시계열의 변동성을 연구하고 있다. 기존의 정수형 모형인 INGARCH(integer valued GRACH) 모형에 조건부 포아송 및 조건부 음이항 분포를 사용하여 변동성에 영-과잉 현상을 추가하였다. 모수 추정 방법으로 EM알고리즘을 사용하였으며 국내 콜레라 발생건수에 적용시켜 보았다.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제27권1호
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• pp.37-46
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• 2020

Recurrent event data frequently occur in clinical studies, demography, engineering reliability and so on (Cook and Lawless, The Statistical Analysis of Recurrent Events, Springer, 2007). Sometimes, two or more different but related type of recurrent events may occur simultaneously. In this study, our interest is to estimate the covariate effect on bivariate recurrent event times with zero inflations. Such zero inflation can be related with susceptibility. In the context of bivariate recurrent event data, furthermore, such susceptibilities may be different according to the type of event. We propose a joint model including both two intensity functions and two cure rate functions. Bivariate frailty effects are adopted to model the correlation between recurrent events. Parameter estimates are obtained by maximizing the likelihood derived under a piecewise constant hazard assumption. According to simulation results, the proposed method brings unbiased estimates while the model ignoring cure rate models gives underestimated covariate effects and overestimated variance estimates. We apply the proposed method to a set of bivariate recurrent infection data in a study of child patients with leukemia.

• 한국국방경영분석학회지
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• 제30권1호
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• pp.135-152
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• 2004

Ever since Benoit's(1973, 1978) study, the relationship between defense spending and economic growth has been the subject of extensive empirical works. While a number of studies have reported that higher defense expenditure stimulate economic growth, many other studies have reported that an increase in military burden may hinder economic growth. To the extent that countries differ substantially in socioeconomic structures, the effects of defense spending cannot be generalized across countries. In this paper, Granger causality tests are performed between Korean defense expenditure and economic growth, consumption, investment, inflation and unemployment rate during the period from 1970 to 2002. The results show that Korean defense expenditure did not affect economic growth and unemployment rate. However, Korean defense expenditure caused consumption and inflation to decrease and investment to increase. On the other hand Korean defense expenditure was not Granger-caused by economic growth, consumption, investment, inflation and unemployment rate. In conclusion, the opportunity cost of Korean defense expenditure seemed to be relatively moderate considering Korean security environment. Even if it was not statistically significant, Korean defense burden at least did not bother economic growth.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.337-370
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• 2018

This paper discusses the design of monetary policy in a New Keynesian small open economy framework by introducing nominal wage rigidities and incomplete exchange rate pass-through on import prices. Three main findings are summarized. First, with the existence of an incomplete exchange rate pass-through and nominal wage rigidities, the optimal policy is to seek to minimize the output gap, the variance of domestic price and wage inflation, as well as deviations from the law of one price. Second, the CPI inflation targeting Taylor rule is welfare enhancing when there is a technological shock to the economy. The exception occurs when there is a foreign income shock, which minimizes welfare losses under the domestic inflation targeting Taylor rule. Last, two stylized Taylor rules turn out to be a bad approximation, but the modified Taylor rules that respond to the unemployment gap rather than the output gap are a closer approximation to the optimal policy.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.409-427
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• 2019

This paper sets up a new Keynesian model with external habit to explore the role of each shock over business cycles in Korea. The estimated model via maximum likelihood shows that the productivity shock plays a pivotal role in explaining the output variations before and after the financial crisis since mid-1970s. It also shows that the model with external habit is more successful in explaining the business cycles in Korea after the Asian financial crisis than the model without habit. The monetary policy shock which dominates by accounting for more than 70 percent of the unconditional variance of the inflation rate before the financial crisis is less important in the inflation rate fluctuations after the financial crisis. This partly reflects the regime change of the monetary policy to the inflation targeting rule after the financial crisis.

• 한국자동차공학회논문집
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• 제7권6호
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• pp.174-181
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• 1999

in order to elucidate the characteristic of velocity distribution of the cavity air. Exploratory tests were conducted on an unloaded rolling radial tire operated at various speeds and inflation pressure. A hot-wire anemometer, rotating with the tire, was used to measure the flow velocity inside the tire cavity. Tow different types of experiments were performed ; one for the effects of rolling speed with constant inflation pressure, the other for the various cavity pressures with constant rolling speed. Experimental results are given as plots of the mean velocity distributions versus the distance from the rim. It is observed that the magnitude of mean velocity in the cavity air shows increasing natures with the increasing of the inflation pressures and rolling speeds.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.12-23
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• 1986

The minimum attractive rate of return (MARR) has been used for many years as a decision criterion in engineering economic analysis. Typically, inflation has been either ignored in such studies or considered by adjusting each of the individual cash flows associated with a project for inflation, frequently a lengthy process. This research investigates a new decision criterion for economic analysis, the comparative rate of return (CRR). The CRR is defined to be the minimum rate of return earned on uninflated cash flows of proposed expenditures is simplified, since the analysis can be performed on the uninflated cash flows. The research presents a derivation of the CRR and investigates its relationships to the MARR, inflation rate project cash flows and project life.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.805-814
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• 2001

The problem of 'outliers', observations which look suspicious in some way, has long been one of the most concern in the statistical structure to experimenters and data analysts. We propose a model for outliers problem and also analyze it in linear regression model using a Bayesian approach with the variance-inflation model. We will use Geweke's(1996) ideas which is based on the data augmentation method for detecting outliers in linear regression model. The advantage of the proposed method is to find a subset of data which is most suspicious in the given model by the posterior probability The sampling based approach can be used to allow the complicated Bayesian computation. Finally, our proposed methodology is applied to a simulated and a real data.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.15-23
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• 1992

This paper dvelops an inventory model with partial backorders considering both inflation rate and discount rate under the situation of deterministic demand and lead time and then make an economic analysis. Especially, the inventory model with partial backorders provided here is the inventory model minimizing annual total cash outflows, which is extended by the addition of inflation rate and discount rate into "Inventory Model with Partial Bakorders" of Park [6]. An iterative solution procedure is developed to find an optimal inventory policy. To provide guidelines for economic analysis of inventory model with partial backorders, sensitivity analysis for selected values of parameters is performed.performed.

• 천문학회지
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.83-91
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• 1996

We present a model that rotating primordial blackholes(PBHs) produced at the end of inflation generate the random, non-oriented primordial magnetic field. PBHs are copiously produced as the Universe completes the cosmic phase transition via bubble nucleation and tunneling processes in the extended inflation hypothesis. The PBHs produced acquire angular momentum through the mutual tidal gravitational interaction. For PBHs of mass less than 1013g, one can show that the evaporation (photon) luminosity of PBHs exceeds the Eddington limit. Thus throughout the lifetime of the rotating PBH, radiation flow from the central blackhole along the Kerr-geodesic exerts torque to ambient plasma. In the process similar to the Bierman's battery mechanism electron current reaching up to the horizon scale is induced. For PBHs of Grand Unified Theories extended inflation with the symmetry breaking temperature of $T_{GUT}\;\~\;10^{10}$ GeV, which evaporate near decoupling, we find that they generate random, non-oriented magnetic fields of $\~10^{-11}G$ on the last-scattering surface on (the present comoving) scales of $\~O(10)Mpc$.