• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.5
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• pp.595-605
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• 2021

The objectives of this research are to see if the phenomena of "demand following" and "supply leading" exist in the business cycle, as well as to look at how liquidity and output react to changes in credit risk, investment-saving gap, inflation, exchange rate, and growth rate of real national output. Employing quarterly data of Maluku and North Maluku (2008-2019), this study utilizes VAR/VECM for inferential analysis. This research found three important findings. First, liquidity and output growth influenced each other in the long run. Second, the determinants of output growth for Maluku are liquidity, investment-saving gap, and inflation, while the determinants of liquidity are output-growth, the gap of investment-saving, and inflation. Third, the determinants of output growth for North Maluku are liquidity, credit risk, investment-saving gap, inflation, exchange rate, and the national output-growth, while the determinants of liquidity are output-growth, credit risk, investment-saving gap, inflation, exchange rate, and national output-growth. The findings of this study supported the hypothesis of demand following and supply leading theory in the Maluku and North Maluku business cycles. This study concludes that economic development would improve if supported by liquidity adequacy through increased deposit growth.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.48 no.4
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• pp.93-119
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• 2023

This study analyzes the impact of global value chain (GVC) participation on inflation in South Korea and China using OLS regression analysis. It compares the results before and after the global financial crisis. The findings are as follows: Firstly, the GVC participation of both South Korea and China negatively affects their inflation rates. When analyzing the GVC participation separately for forward and backward participation, it was observed that the forward participation of both countries negatively influences inflation. However, the backward participation of South Korea and China positively impacts inflation. Secondly, after the global financial crisis, there were differences in the analysis results for South Korea and China. The influence of GVC participation on inflation was not statistically significant for both countries. However, when analyzing the impact of forward and backward participation separately, China showed mostly insignificant effects on most inflation indicators. In contrast, South Korea's forward and backward participation seemed to have an expanding effect on inflation. This may be attributed to China's attempt to shift external demand to domestic demand and replace imported intermediate goods with domestic products, leading to a reduction in the impact of GVC participation. On the other hand, South Korea continued to show a relatively low decrease in GVC participation after the global financial crisis, indicating that the impact on inflation remains significant.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.123-132
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• 2014

Inflation uncertainty is known to have deleterious effects on facilities investment by disturbing the corporate decision on the opportunity cost of investment. In this paper, we test the validity of this hypothesis in Korea by estimating the inflation uncertainty with both a time-varing parameter model with GARCH disturbances and the relative price volatility and then, estimate the facilities investment equation which includes those uncertainty indicators. The uncertainty indexes estimated by the above-mentioned methods continue to fluctuate even after the inflation rate has dropped dramatically reflecting the structural changes of Korea's economy since the financial crisis in 1997. As a result of estimation of the investment equation by both OLS and GMM, we find the inflation uncertainty has a negative effect on facilities investment with a statistical significance. Moreover, by means of Markov-switching regression model utilized to verify the non-linearity of this relationship, we draw a conclusion that this negative effect of inflation uncertainty heightens asymmetrically during the downturn periods of business cycle.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.49-74
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• 2006

Even though the foreign currency crisis in 1997 and the introduction of Inflation Targeting(IT) have been considered as key factors for current low inflation, there have been few attempts to explain what is the contribution of the dynamics of wage and price to the low inflation. This study is to analyze the relation between wage and price especially focusing on how it through the economic events using cointegration instability tests. The result shows that the short and long-run relation between two have variables have changed through the period of 1997~1999. In the first subperiod, wage tended to respond immediately to inflation shocks, whereas price responded to wage shocks in a long-run. Moreover, the cointegration coefficient of price was equal to 1. In the second subperiod, however, the dynamics from price to wage has been weakened and the real wage has declined apparently. These findings mean that the workers have failed to raise their wage at the rate of inflation, that is, the so-called wage-price spiral was broken for the second subperiod. The implication of this study is that the relatively weak bargaining power of workers, or the condition of labor market, is one of the primary factors of the current low inflation.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.65-101
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• 2014

This paper estimates and characterizes expected inflations using an affine term structure model based on the empirical stochastic process of the interest rates in Korea. The empirical results show that the expected inflation which marked above 4% before the global financial crisis has dampened and stabilized after the crisis. Moreover, we investigate the rationality of the various expected inflation measures in terms of the unbiasedness and efficiency and find that unbiasedness is not rejected across the all measures, while the efficiency cannot be empirically warranted. Besides, we run Granger causality tests and conclude that the expected inflations compiled from the Consensus, BOK-Expert have the cross-causality with the long-run actual inflation, while the expected inflation estimated from the term structure model has the cross-causality with the short-run actual inflation. These results connote that expected inflations collected from different sources and methods have their targets and horizons and the central bank needs to watch all of them with a balanced view instead of preferring one to the other.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.246-263
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• 2010

This study examines how the long-run relations between housing price and inflation in the United Sates have changed since the year of 2000. Johansen co-integration test, estimation of long-run equilibrium equation, and Granger causality tests are conducted, based on the VECM. Data covers the period from the first quarter of 1975 to the second quarter of 2010. I adopt the recursive estimation method in which the final period of the estimation is expanded by one quarter, starting from the first quarter of 2000. The empirical results are as follows: (1) In spite of the sharp increase of housing price, the long-run relationship of house prices and inflation has been remained stable until 2007, showing that house prices are a stable inflation hedge in the long run. (2) The housing price plunge since 1997 does not seem to be related to the restore of the long-run relationship between housing prices and inflation. (3) Granger causality test results support the hypothesis that inflation granger-causes housing prices with 10% significance level, but reject the hypothesis that housing price granger-causes inflation.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.12
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• pp.43-52
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• 2020

This paper examines how macroeconomic variables, such as interest rate differences, inflation, exchange rates, economic growth and external debt growth, affect capital flight in the ASEAN-8 countries. We apply a panel data model with fixed effect estimation for the data for eight countries from the period 1994 to 2018. We use the residual approach used by the World Bank to measure the value of capital flight. The results show that the interest rate differences, exchange rates, economic growth and foreign debt growth had a positive and significant effect on outward capital flight. A further implication of this finding is that the interest rate differences, exchange rate, economic growth and foreign debt growth are factors that trigger an increase in capital outflow in the ASEAN-8 countries. Nonetheless, inflation rate is not considered to be the main factor influencing capital flight, as average inflation in the ASEAN-8 countries remains relatively stable. This paper will be beneficial for policymakers in the ASEAN-8 countries and encourage them to constantly pay attention to these four variables, as they significantly influence capital flight, whereas they can disregard the impact of the inflation variable that is not significant in influencing capital flight.

• Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.177-184
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• 1991

Characteristics of the lung inflation and deflation reflexes were measured at various temperatrues on the cervical vagi in five anesthetized mongrel dogs. Nerve temperature was maintained at the body temperature, and $2-14^{\circ}C$ with $2^{\circ}C$ apart using a specially designed automated vagal cooling apparatus with an accuracy to within ${\pm}0.1^{\circ}C$ at each temperature. The inflation reflex was blocked abruptly at $8-10^{\circ}C$. The deflation reflex started weakened at $14^{\circ}C$, thereafter showed a gradual blockade with the temperature decreased with a substantial variance among the animals. It was approximately 75% blocked at $2-6^{\circ}C$. These differences in temperature characteristics made it hard to differentiate the deflation reflex from the inflation reflex. In one animal, however, the inflation reflex was completely blocked with the deflation reflex almost alive at $6-8^{\circ}C$. This suegests that differential cold blockade of the vagal reflexes can be done only in selected subjects. Fur- thermore, the fact that these two reflexes were blocked at different temperatures may be due to the differences in the nerve fiber size and the changes in the conduction velocity with temperature.

• Korea Real Estate Review
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.33-44
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• 2017

The continuously rising housing prices in major Chinese cities have raised question about whether inflation is the main reason to drive up housing price to skyrocket in recent years. Based on the provincial panel dataset of China from 2006-2014, this paper investigates the impact of inflation on Chinese housing markets within the frameworks of both static and dynamic panel data models. Our empirical results show evidence that inflation has indeed been a main force of accumulating housing bubbles in these housing markets, especially in eastern region of China. We also find an interesting phenomenon in which Chinese housing bubble is, to a certain extent, affected by market self-adjustment mechanism.

• Journal of the Chungcheong Mathematical Society
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.343-349
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• 2013

The optimal portfolio selection problem under inflation risk is considered in this paper. There are three assets the economic agent can invest, which are a risk free bond, an index bond and a risky asset. By applying the martingale method, the optimal consumption rate and the optimal portfolios for each asset are obtained explicitly.