• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2015년도 학술발표회
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• pp.225-225
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• 2015

Drought events usually evolve slowly in time and their impacts generally span a long period of time. This indicates that the sequence of drought is not completely random. The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a probabilistic model used to represent dependences between invisible hidden states which finally result in observations. Drought characteristics are dependent on the underlying generating mechanism, which can be well modelled by the HMM. This study employed a HMM with Gaussian emissions to fit the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) series and make multi-step prediction to check the drought characteristics in the future. To estimate the parameters of the HMM, we employed a Bayesian model computed via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Since the true number of hidden states is unknown, we fit the model with varying number of hidden states and used reversible jump to allow for transdimensional moves between models with different numbers of states. We applied the HMM to several stations SPI data in South Korea. The monthly SPI data from January 1973 to December 2012 was divided into two parts, the first 30-year SPI data (January 1973 to December 2002) was used for model calibration and the last 10-year SPI data (January 2003 to December 2012) for model validation. All the SPI data was preprocessed through the wavelet denoising and applied as the visible output in the HMM. Different lead time (T= 1, 3, 6, 12 months) forecasting performances were compared with conventional forecasting techniques (e.g., ANN and ARMA). Based on statistical evaluation performance, the HMM exhibited significant preferable results compared to conventional models with much larger forecasting skill score (about 0.3-0.6) and lower Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values (about 0.5-0.9).

• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.87-95
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• 2005

동절기에 대기온도가 영하로 내려감에 따라 포장하부층의 동결 및 응해가 반복되어 포장체의 구조적 성능이 저하된다. 이를 방지하기 위하여 동상에 대한 많은 연구가 수행되었으며, 그 결과, 우리나라 전역의 동결지수선도가 작성되어 동상방지층 설계 등의 도로건설에 이용되고 있다. 하지만, 포장층의 두께와 재료, 그리고 지형에 따른 동결심도의 변화에 대한 조사가 체계적으로 이루어지지 않아 현행 동상방지층 설계의 유효성에 대한 평가가 시급한 실정이다. 본 논문에서는 한국도로공사 시험도로에서 측정되는 대기온도 자료와 콘크리트 및 아스팔트 포장의 깊이별 온도 및 함수량 자료를 이용하여, 시험도로의 동결지수 및 동결가능 깊이를 조사하였다. 또한, 조사된 결과를 기존의 동결심도 추정식에 의한 결과와 비교하였다. 본 연구는 시험도로에서 측정된 동결 관련자료에 대한 초기연구로서 , 장기적인 자료의 축적과 분석을 통하여 보다 신뢰성 있는 결과가 도출될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제34권2호
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• pp.164-172
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• 2018

This study aims to determine the community patterns of benthic macroinvertebrates and analyze the relationship between the communities and the water quality in the Pungyeongjeong Stream. We collected the samples four times by season. The number of species was 28 and the dominant species were Cheumatopsyche brevilineata, Hydropsyche kozhantschikovi, Baetis fuscatus, Chironomidae spp., and so on. The range of the dominant index was 0.54 to 0.93 and the mean was 0.77. The range of the diversity index was 0.94 to 2.54, and of the mean index it was 1.75. The ratio of filtering-collectors and clingers got lower, but the ratio of gathering-collectors and sprawlers got higher as collection progressed from the upper stream to the lower stream. The results of the Pearson correlation analysis showed COD, SS, TOC and total coliforms were highly related with biotic indices of benthic macroinvertebrates. The results of cluster analysis and non-metric multidimensional scaling ordination showed that the survey sites and periods were divided into three groups. The survey sites were divided into upper stream and middle-lower stream. The survey periods were divided into winter season and other seasons. Distribution of benthic macroinvertebrates showed some characteristics according to various influence factors; however long-term and regular investigations were thought to need analysis and prediction with various statistical methods.

• 터널과지하공간
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.67-80
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• 2014

본 연구에서는 임계하균열성장 변수를 구하기 위해 제안된 Wilkins의 시험법을 압열인장시험과 결합하여 화강암의 인장강도, Mode I 파괴인성과 임계하균열성장지수를 동시에 구하였으며 이를 사용하여 암석의 장기거동을 평가하였다. 또한 내부압력을 받는 압축공기저장(CAES) 공동에 대한 장기안정성을 수치해석코드인 FRACOD를 사용하여 해석하였다. 시험 결과 화강암의 임계하균열성장지수(n)는 29.39로 결정되었으며 5 ~ 6 MPa의 내압은 저장공동의 장기안정성에 큰 영향을 미치지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 시험 과정에서 측정한 미소파괴음을 분석한 결과 암석내의 미소균열 생성 및 전파에 따른 암석의 손상을 정량적으로 기술할 수 있었다. 만약, 실내와 동일한 조건으로 현장에서 AE 모니터링을 수행할 경우 AE 모니터링을 통해서 하중을 받는 암석의 현재 상태를 정량적으로 평가하는 것이 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국환경생물학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국환경생물학회 2004년도 학술대회
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• pp.26-26
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• 2004

This study was conducted to evaluate the characteristics of dissolved orgamc matters based on their origins. The dissolved organic carbon(DOC) represents an index for dissolved organic matter and basically regarded as a source of organic pollution. The monthly variations and vertical profiles of dissolved organic carbon(DOC) in Kumoh reservoir were surveyed from May 2001 to April 2002. In addition, other areas such as river, reservoir, sewage and industrial wastewater were also surveyed in summer 2001. Kumoh reservoir was divided with depth into three layers .: epilimnion, metalimnion and hypolimnion. The proportion of total DOC(T-DOC) was classified by labile DOC(L-DOC) and refractory DOC(R-DOC) on the basis of long-term incubation. DOC of freshwater and Kumoh reservoir was ranged to be 1.6~4.1 mgC/L and 2.1~4.0 mgC/L, respectively. L-DOC accounted for 3~30% of DOC from watershed. Therefore, refractory dissolved organic carbon(R-DOC) was major component of DOC in the watershed. The decomposition rate(k) ranged from 0.008 $d^{-1}$ to 0.083 $d^{-1}$ in Kumoh reservoir. The highest decomposition rate(k) was observed at River Hoein III freshwater. Therefore, modified total organic carbon analyzer is needed to be applied for effective management of dissolved organic matter.

• 센서학회지
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• 제14권3호
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• pp.144-149
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• 2005

In this paper, we introduce the variation of ride characteristics for HSR 350x(Korea High Speed Train project) through on-line test during about 3 years. The concept of term "ride comfort" is equivocal. Generally it is evaluated as the vehicle vibration. The ride comfort for HSR 350x has been assessed by statistical method according to UIC 513R. The testing results show that HSR 350x has no problems from the viewpoint of the comfort ride on the high speed line and conventional line and that 1st and 2nd suspensions play an important role in the ride characteristics for high speed train.

• 천문학회보
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• 제37권2호
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• pp.127.1-127.1
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• 2012

The 40.8-MHz VHF coherent scatter ionospheric radar, located in South Korea (Gyeryong, $36.18^{\circ}N$, $127.14^{\circ}E$), has been operating since December 2009 to investigate ionosphere E- and F-region field-aligned irregularities (FAIs) of mid-latitude. During the observation, we found E- and F-region FAIs appeared frequently: continuous echoes during the post-sunrise period and Quasi-Periodic (QP) echoes at nighttime for E region ; strong post-sunset and pre-sunrise FAIs for F region. The characteristics of E- and F-region FAIs are presented in terms of seasonal and local time variations of occurrence during December 2009 to August 2012. In addition, to investigate the correlation with geomagnetic activity to FAIs occurrence, we compared K-index variations to local time occurrence. It is worth to note our occurrence result since long term observation over several years in the mid-latitude has not yet been carried out.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제37권4호
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• pp.659-668
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• 2017

본 연구에서는 서울지역의 극한가뭄(Extreme Drought)에 대한 통계학적 특성을 분석하기 위해서 측우기 강수량 자료(1777~1907년)와 기상청에서 관측된 강수량(1908~2015년) 자료 및 기후변화시나리오를 반영한 강수량(2011~2099년) 자료를 활용한 300년 이상의 장기 강수량 자료를 이용하여 서울지역의 가뭄특성을 분석하였다. 경향성 분석결과, 장기간에 걸쳐 연평균 강우량이 증가하는 것으로 분석되었으며, 기상학적 가뭄지수인 SPI에 대한 Wavelet transform 분석결과 측우기와 기상청자료에서 공통적으로 64~80개월(5~6년), 기후변화자료에서는 96~128개월(8~10년) 주기로 가뭄발생 주기가 길어지는 것으로 나타났다. Dry spell 분석결과에서는 고대기간에서 가뭄발생 빈도가 높은 반면, 근 현대, 미래기간에서는 발생빈도가 점차 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 가뭄규모 분석을 통해서 서울지역의 가장 극심한 가뭄사상으로 1901년이 극심한 가뭄연도로 분석되었고, 1899~1907년이 서울지역에서 발생한 가뭄사상 중 9년 연속의 가장 극심한 연속가뭄으로 나타났다.

• Journal of Chest Surgery
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• 제32권10호
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• pp.883-890
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• 1999

Long term patency of arterial graft has been better than venous graft and redo coronary artery bypass grafting has been increasing, therefore, there has been an increasing need for alternative arterial grafts except internal thoracic artery(ITA). Material and Method: Right gastroepiploic arteries(RGEA) were harvested from 100 patients who had received gastrectomy for gastric cancer or ulcer. ITAs were obtained from 10 patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting. The length of RGEA was measured from the pyloric ring. Items of the morphometric and histologic study at the pyloric ring and sites of the 10cm and 20cm RGEA from the pyloric ring were luminal diameter, intimal thickness, medial thickness, wall thickness, degree of intimal hyperplasia, intimal thickness, medial thickness, wall thickness, degree of intimal hyperplasia, intimal thickness index, medial thickness index, and the number of discontinuities of the internal elastic lamina. Similar items were applied to the proximal site of ITAs. Result: The length of RGEA was 23${\pm}$2.7cm(range 17∼31cm). Comparing the 20cm RGEA with ITA, intimal thickness, medial thickness, wall thickness, and degree of intimal hyperplasia did not show any difference(p>0.05). However, 20cm RGEA was greater than ITA at the luminal diameter, intimal thickness index, and the number thickness and wall thickness in each site of the RGEA(pyloric ring, 10cm, 20cm) decreased from the pyloric ring to the distal sites(p<0.05). The degree of intimal hyperplasia and the number of discontinuities of the internal elastic lamina did not show any difference between the pyloric ring and 10cm, however, those of 20cm were smaller than these sites(p<0.05). RGEA had more number of discontinuities of the internal elastic lamina and rich smooth muscle cells in the media than ITA. Conclusion: The length and diameter of RGEA is good enough to reach most of the coronary arteries. Moreover, long term patency of RGEA may be improved, if anastomosed in the distal site.

• 한국병원경영학회지
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• 제6권3호
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• pp.148-166
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• 2001

The purpose of this study is to classify elderly patient in long-term care facilities using RUG(Resource Utilization Group)-III. It is designed by measuring patient medical characteristics and medical staff time. Elderly patients are classified into 7 categories by clinical(medical and behavioral) hierarchical typology of patients. Through the tertiary split, all 44 groups are formulated. This classification is explained by each patient resource(staff time) utilization level which is called CMI(Case-Mix Index). Major findings are as follows; 1. The objects in this study were classified into 35 groups out of 44 groups. The most frequent category is clinical complex category(CCC; 38.9%). And extensive service category(ESC; 18.8%), reduced physical function category(RPC; 13.1%), special rehabilitation category(SRC; 12.8%), and impaired cognitive category(ICC; 0.00%) are followed. 2. The mean of total CMI was $1.02{\pm}0.36$, ranging from 0.68 to 1.44(1 vs 2.12). The mean of CMI of SRC is only 1.17 which should be the highest. The means of ESC and see are equally 1.20. The means of CMI of CCI, ICC, BPC, and RPC were 0.90, 0.75, 0.83 and 0.96, respectively. 3. The validity of this classification was tested. Trend-test using Regression Analysis was done in the secondary split level. SCC, CCC, ICC, and RPC which covered 68.4% of this research objects showed linear trend of CMI in interim classification. This results were statistically significant. 4. In clinical hierarchy, the trend were showed linearity. But the multiple comparison of categories using Scheffe-test showed that SRC, ESC and see had same level of CMI means and CCC and ICC, too. This results were statistically significant. Classifying elderly patients with RUG-III, the results showed partly linear trend in clinical hierarchy and in interim classification in conclusion. But, in clinical hierarchy, it was failed to show the consistent order of CMI. It can be explained by two reasons. One is that this research subjects were overlapped in each clinical hierarchy group. And the other is that the some of the characteristics for clinical hierarchy is not appropriate for them. For the further study, it needs to have proper sample size and to modify RUG-III to K-RUG to consider our.. medical environment.