• 제목/요약/키워드: increase in labor supply

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가계부채와 기혼여성 노동공급의 관계 분석 (The Analysis on the Relationship between Household Debts and Married Women's Labor Supply)

  • 송헌재;신우리
    • 노동경제논집
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    • 제40권1호
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    • pp.37-68
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    • 2017
  • 본 연구에서는 재정패널 자료를 이용하여 가계부채와 기혼여성의 노동공급 사이의 관계를 분석하였다. 이를 위해 가구의 이자비용 납부액 대비 가구금융부채 금액을 이용하여 가구의 유효이자율을 구축하였다. 금융부채가 없는 가구의 경우 Heckman Selection 모형을 적용하여 가구의 이자율을 추정하였다. 실증 분석결과 가구에서 부담하는 유효이자율이 상승하게 될 경우 기혼여성의 노동시장 참여가 확대된다는 것을 발견하였다. 이로부터 기준금리가 인상되는 상황에서 예상할 수 있는 부정적인 시나리오를 가구 노동공급 증가와 근로소득의 상승효과를 통해 일정 부분 상쇄할 수 있는 긍정적인 효과를 제시하고 있다.

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노동력수급의 요인분석과 전망 (An Empirical Analysis of The Determinants and Long-term Projections for The Demand and Supply of Labor force)

  • 김중수
    • 한국인구학
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    • 제9권1호
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    • pp.41-53
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    • 1986
  • The purpose of this paper is two-fold. One is to investigate the determinants of the demand supply of labor, and another is to project long-term demand and supply of labor. The paper consists of three parts. In the first part, theoretical models and important hypotheses are discussed: for the case of a labor supply model, issues regarding discouraged worker model, permanent wage hypothesis, and relative wage hypothesis are examined and for the case of a demand model, issues regarding estimating an employment demand equation within the framework of an inverted short-run produc- tion function are inspected. Particularly, a theoretical justification for introducing a demographic cohort variable in a labor supply equation is also investigated. In the second part, empirical results of the estimated supply and demand equations are analyzed. Supply equations are specified differently between primary and secondary labor force. That is, for the case of primary labor force groups including males aged 25 and over, attempts are made to explain the variations in participation behavior within the framework of a neo-classical economics oriented permanent wage hypothesis. On the other hand, for the case of females and young male labor force, variations in participation rates are explained in terms of a relative wage hypothesis. In other words, the participation behavior of primary labor force is related to short-rum business fluctuations, while that of secondary labor force is associated with intermediate swings of business cycles and demographic changes in the age structure of population. Some major findings arc summarized as follows. (1) For the case of males aged 14~19 and 2O~24 groups and females aged 14∼19, the effect of schhool enrollment rate is dominant and thus it plays a key role in explaining the recent declining trend of participation rates of these groups. (2) Except for females aged 20∼24, a demographic cohort variable, which captures the impact of changes in the age structure on participation behavior, turns out to show positive and significant coefficients for secondary labor force groups. (3) A cyclical variable produce significant coefficients for prime-age males and females reflecting that as compared to other groups the labor supply behavior of these groups is more closely related to short-run cyclical variations (4) The wage variable, which represents a labor-leisure trade-off turns out to yield significant coefficients only for older age groups (6O and over) for both males and females. This result reveals that unlike the experiences of other higer-income nations, the participation decision of the labor force of our nation is not highly sensitive with respect to wage changes. (5)The estimated result of the employment demand equation displays that given that the level of GNP remains constant the ability of the economy to absord labor force has been declining;that is, the elasticity of GNP with respect to labor absorption decreasre over time. In the third part, the results of long-term projections (for the period of 1986 and 1995) for age-sex specific participation rates are discussed. The participation rate of total males is anticipated to increase slightly, which is contrary to the recent trend of declining participation rates of this group. For the groups aged 25 and below, the participation rates are forecast to decline although the magnitude of decrease is likely to shrink. On the other hand, the participation rate of prime- age males (25 to 59 years old) is predicted to increase slightly during 1985 and 1990. For the case of females, except for 20∼24 and 25∼34 age groups, the participation rates are projected to decrease: the participation rates of 25∼34 age group is likely to remain at its current level, while the participation rate of 20∼24 age group is expected to increase considerably in the future (specifi- cally, from 55% in 1985 to 61% in 1990 and to 69% in 1995). In conclusion, while the number of an excess supply of labor will increase in absolute magnitude, its size as a ratio of total labor force is not likely to increase. However, the age composition of labor force is predicted to change; that is, the proportion of prime-age male and female labor force is projected to increase.

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The Impact of the Number of Children on Parental Labor Market Performance

  • Shuang ZHANG;Ya-Hao LI;Fan YANG
    • 웰빙융합연구
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    • 제7권3호
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    • pp.13-24
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    • 2024
  • Against the backdrop of China's implementation of the "universal two-child" policy, the expansion of higher education, and the narrowing gender gap in the labor market and family status, we investigated the impact of the number of children on parental labor supply and occupational prestige scores using data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) for 2016 and 2018. We found that the influence of children on the parental labor market shifted from labor supply to occupational prestige scores. Heterogeneity analysis reveals a more negative significant adverse impact of younger children on parental labor market performance compared with children over 7 years old. Compared to rural areas, parents in urban areas experience a more significant negative impact from an increase in the number of children. Extended families facilitate rural fathers' employment and leads to a decline in occupational prestige for urban parents.

장기인구성장과 노동력 수급 전망 (Impact of Population Growth on Labor Force and Employment in Korea; Transition and Prospect)

  • 박래영
    • 한국인구학
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    • 제8권1호
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    • pp.47-65
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    • 1985
  • Three stages of population growth during last forty years affected differently to the labor force and employment in Korea. The first impact of rapid population growth on the labor force occured after the end of World War II. Sudden growth of population due to repartriation and refugees directly increased the labor force. Deteriorating labor market conditions were caused not only by the explosive labor supply but also by the shortage of employment opportunities due to a lack of productive facilities. This severe excess supply of labor continued until the early 196Os. Population growth in the second stage which caused by high fertility during the post Korean War baby boom period induced an eventual increase in the labor supply with time lag of more than fifteen years. Younger persons born during baby boom period were flooded the labor market. Fortunately, job opportunities were expanded more rapidly than the labor force supply because high rates of economic growth and speedy industrialization were continued until the later half of 1970s. Unemployment, therefore, decreased dramatically during this period. The effect of third stage which is characterized as mitigated population growth due to birth control has appeared in the labor market since late 1970s. The growth rate of labor force has been going down and the proportion of younger workers was also been decreasing. From the early 1980s, furthermore, partial disharmony between supply of and demand for the younger workers is closing up. Less educated younger workers who works at low wage are lacking while more educated youngers who want to work at high wage are being excess, because a lot of younger prefer higher education rather than productive job. It is expected that the structural inharmony will be diversified in the future in Korea. The labor force will be changed to middleaged, highly educated and womenized till year 2000, and, after then, to old-aged. On the demand side, industries and jobs will transferred to be labor-saving and soft. These structural changes of labor supply and demand will not matching in time. Aggregate supply of labor force will be steadily increasing more rapidly than aggregate demand for labor until year 2000, and this trend will continue to the first one or two decades of the 2lth century because the persons born dufing the baby boom pariod are being eligible couples in recent. Therefore, conclusion is that appropriate manpower development policy as well as sustained birth control policy is necessary for harmonizing the structural unbalance and the disequilibrium between aggregate labor supply and demand in the future.

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1995년 소득세제 개편이 노동공급에 미친 영향 (The Effect of 1995 Tax Reform on Labor Supply in Korea)

  • 천동민
    • 노동경제논집
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    • 제41권4호
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    • pp.1-30
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    • 2018
  • 1995년 소득세제 개편으로 인해 1996년 귀속분 소득부터 적용되는 한계세율, 과세표준구간, 그리고 각종 공제제도가 조정되면서 누진도가 크게 낮아졌다. 본 연구에서는 소득세제 개편으로 인한 세후 임금률 변화가 노동공급에 미친 인과효과를 분석하기 위해 이중차분 분석을 시행하였다. 자료로는 1989~2000년 "경제활동인구조사"와 1992~97년 "대우패널데이터"를 이용하였다. 25~55세 남성 가구주 임금근로자를 대상으로 분석한 결과 세제개편의 영향을 받은 근로자의 연간 근로시간이 1.5% 정도 통계적으로 유의하게 증가한 것으로 나타났다.

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우리 나라 인구 및 학력의 구조변화와 노동력 수급전망 (Trends and Prospects for Demographic Structure and Labor Supply in Korea)

  • 구성열;강병규
    • 한국인구학
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    • 제21권1호
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    • pp.5-41
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    • 1998
  • 과거 30년 동안 우리 나라의 인구는 양적 증가가 둔화된 대신 질적(교육)수준이 향상되는 전형적인 인구변천과정을 겪어 왔다. 본 논문에서는 노동공급의 변동을 양적 측면과 질적(교육수준)측면의 두 요인으로 나누어 과거 30년간 우리 나라 경제성장의 고용흡수력을 분해 측정하였다. 그리고 인구구조(성, 나이, 학력)와 경제활동률을 전망한 다음 노동공급의 양적 측면과 질적 측면에 대한 전망을 토대로 하여 향후 우리 나라의 성장잠재력을 전망하였다. 그 결과 우리 나라의 노동공급은 양적 구조에서 질적 구조로 변화하고 있지만 양적 감소요인을 질적 증가요인이 충분히 상쇄하지 못함으로써 잠재성장률이 현저히 둔화될 것으로 전망된다.

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민유림영림단(民有林營林團)을 중심(中心)으로 한 임업노동력(林業勞動力) 소요(所要)·공급분석(供給分析) (Analysis of Labor Need and Supply in Forestry in Korea)

  • 김병구;최관
    • 한국산림과학회지
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    • 제86권3호
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    • pp.270-278
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    • 1997
  • 본(本) 연구(硏究)는 우리 나라 사유림(私有林) 중(中) 시업지(施業地) 3,503천ha를 법정림(法正林) 상태로 유도하기 위해 각종(各種) 산림사업(山林事業)에 필요(必要)한 임업노동력(林業勞動力)의 소요량(所要量)과 공급량(供給量)을 예측(豫測)하기 위하여 수행(遂行)되었다. 소요량(所要量)은 영급별(齡級別)로 구분(區分)된 시업면적(施業面積)을 기준(基準)으로 산림청의 산림시책상(山林施策上) 공정(工程)을 적용(適用)하여 파악하였으며 공급량(供給量)은 농산촌지역(農山村地城)으로 분류(分類)된 8개(個) 지역(地城)의 주민(住民)을 대상(對象)으로 제시된 임금 수준에서의 참여 여부를 설문조사하여 추정(推定)하였다. 그 결과(結果) 임업노동력(林業勞動力)의 소요량(所要量)은 연간 작업일수(作業日數) 200일(日)을 기준(基準)으로 할 때 39,190명이었으며, 공급(供給)은 실질임금상승률을 0%, 3%, 5%, 7%의 4가지로 구분(區分)하여 추정한 결과 0%에서는 인구감소율에 따라 공급인원이 갈수록 줄어드는 것으로 추정되었고 3%에서는 2005년 이내에는 소요량을 충족하기가 어려우며, 5%에서는 2003년과 2004년 사이에, 7%에서는 2001년과 2002년 사이에 각각 소요량을 충족시킬 것으로 예측(豫測)되었다.

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안심소득제의 효과 (Effects of Safety Income System)

  • 박기성;변양규
    • 노동경제논집
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    • 제40권3호
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    • pp.57-77
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    • 2017
  • 우리는 현행 복지제도의 노동공급 역유인 효과를 방지 완화하기 위하여 4인 가구 기준 연소득 5,000만 원 이하 가구에 대해 소득부족액을 기준으로 보조금을 지원하는 한국형 음소득세인 안심소득제(safety income system)를 제안한다. 이 제도 하에서는 노동공급 증가로 국내총생산이 상승하고, 저소득가구의 처분가능소득 증대로 소득격차도 완화될 수 있다. 가계동향조사 미시자료를 사용하여 검증한 결과 안심소득제의 소득격차 완화 정도는 기존제도 및 기본소득제에 비해 월등한 것으로 나타났다.

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코로나19가 한육우 시장 및 한육우 농가 인력수요에 미치는 영향분석 (An Analysis of the Impact of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) on the Korean Beef Cattle Market and Farm Labor Demand for Korean Beef Cattle)

  • 김인석
    • 한국유기농업학회지
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    • 제28권2호
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    • pp.171-188
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    • 2020
  • The Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), first identified in China in December 2019, has widely spread worldwide and is an ongoing pandemic. It is expected that the ripple effect of COVID-19 on the global economy including the agricultural sector will increase substantially if not properly controlled shortly. This study examines the potential impact of COVID-19 on the Korean beef cattle sector and farm labor demand for Korean beef cattle using a dynamic partial equilibrium model. The agricultural production value and farm labor demand for Korean beef cattle in the scenario assuming pessimistic GDP growth rate (-1.2% in 2020) with no direct supply shocks fell by up to 4.00% and 0.67%, respectively, compared to the baseline which represents the future without COVID-19 outbreak. On the other hand, the agricultural production value and farm labor demand for Korean beef cattle in the scenario assuming both pessimistic GDP growth rate and supply shocks (-12.7% beef imports and + 2.4% feed cost in 2020) increased by up to 12.08% and 1.99%, respectively, compared to the baseline.

Rederivation of Gertler's model and analysis of the Korean economy

  • Lee, Hangsuck;Son, Jihoon
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제27권6호
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    • pp.649-673
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    • 2020
  • This paper makes a theoretical contribution by providing clear and detailed derivation of economic agents' decision problems including elastic labor supply in Gertler's overlapping generation (OLG) model. We apply the model to the Korean economy by calibration based on Korean economic data. It also analyzes the impact of current social issues such as aging and extension of retirement age, on the Korean economy in a long-run equilibrium. Subsequently, we also discuss the implications of the analysis. Aging has prolonged the period of retirement; therefore, population structure changes by the increase in the proportion of retirees, the total consumption-to-GDP ratio decreases, and capital stock increases due to reduced propensity to consume out of wealth in preparation for an individual's retirement life. The implementation of retirement age extension increases the proportion of retirees relatively less and alleviates fluctuations in labor supply and the share of financial assets for both economic agents. However, the decrements in consumption-to-GDP ratio is larger than before, and this leads to a larger rise in the capital stock compared to when there is only an aging effect.