• Title/Summary/Keyword: housing loan

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Forecasting for a Credit Loan from Households in South Korea

  • Jeong, Dong-Bin
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.15-21
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    • 2017
  • Purpose - In this work, we examined the causal relationship between credit loans from households (CLH), loan collateralized with housing (LCH) and an interest of certificate of deposit (ICD) among others in South Korea. Furthermore, the optimal forecasts on the underlying model will be obtained and have the potential for applications in the economic field. Research design, data, and methodology - A total of 31 realizations sampled from the 4th quarter in 2008 to the 4th quarter in 2016 was chosen for this research. To achieve the purpose of this study, a regression model with correlated errors was exploited. Furthermore, goodness-of-fit measures was used as tools of optimal model-construction. Results - We found that by applying the regression model with errors component ARMA(1,5) to CLH, the steep and lasting rise can be expected over the next year, with moderate increase of LCH and ICD. Conclusions - Based on 2017-2018 forecasts for CLH, the precipitous and lasting increase can be expected over the next two years, with gradual rise of two major explanatory variables. By affording the assumption that the feedback among variables can exist, we can, in the future, consider more generalized models such as vector autoregressive model and structural equation model, to name a few.

An Attitude of Residents on College Temporary Housing - Focused on Students in Architectural Design Program - (대학 임시주거 거주학생들의 임시주거에 대한 태도 - 건축학과 학생들을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Duk-Su;Kwun, Joon-Bum
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Educational Facilities
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.3-13
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze the factors negatively affecting college life, to investigate the perception gap between housing types, and to generate preliminary data for increasing residential satisfaction of students who live in temporary housing(e.g., dormitory or one-room). The utilized research methods included a questionnaire survey and an in-depth interview. The college students, especially from other regions, experienced more financial difficulties than others. They managed their tuition and living expense/allowance by parents supports and other sources(e.g., scholarship, arbeit, work in college, loan etc.). The reasons to choose dormitory, as temporary housing, were short distance to college and low costs. In case of one room, independent life was main reason to choose. Gender differences affected to the decision, moving away from present temporary housing. For example, male students preferred an independent life and a short commuting distance, while female students preferred an independent life and a safe life. Thus, considering the origin and gender differences of residents, dormitory planning needed to develop plans allowing independent life and to choose appropriate site for the purpose. In case of planning one room apartment, concerns for safety and landscape were more important than other factors.

A Study on Implementation Delay Factors of the Block-unit Housing Renewal Project - Focused on the Incheon Metropolitan City - (가로주택정비사업의 사업시행 지연요인에 관한 연구 - 인천광역시 사례를 중심으로 -)

  • Han, Young Hoon;Na, In Su
    • Journal of KIBIM
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.32-40
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    • 2022
  • The block-unit housing renewal project was presented as an alternative method to overcome the side effects of large-scale renewal projects while improving poor residential conditions. However, projects implementation is prolonged and even the pace of projects, which was considered an various incentives, is being delayed for the most part. In this study, delay factors are drawn by eight; conflict among association members, contract delay of joint implementation, participation paucity of constructor, inadequate project guidelines, alteration of project plan, lack of renewal project professionals, stricter loan restriction of HUG, lack of capacity of project operator. We categorized those eight factors to three aspects such as implementation, participants and proposition and suggested improvement alternatives according to three aspects.

A Study on Determinants of Subjective Repayment Burden in Household Debt by Income Quintile Groups (가구의 소득분위별 가계부채 주관적 상환부담요인에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Yoon-Tae;Rho, Jeong-Hyun
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.17 no.9
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    • pp.145-158
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    • 2017
  • Lately, rapid increase of household debt and economic change has affected cash flow of household, insolvent risk has increased by high repayment burden of the principal and interest. Previous researches was progressing various discussion, composed objective repayment burden index about household debt. But it was relatively insufficient about perception of consumer. This research compare and analysis determinants of subjective repayment burden in household debt by income quintile, using 2016 Household Financial Welfare Survey. The research result is follows. The income 1 and 2 quartile groups have the higher monthly rent and credit card loan and the housing preparation loan ratio, the higher burden on repayment of the principal and interest. The Income 3 and 4 quartile groups have the higher 60s or older and member of household and real estate mortgage loan, the higher burden on repayment of the principal and interest. The Income 5 quartile group has the higher loan ratio for debt repayment preparation, the higher burden on repayment of the principal and interest.

Housing Market Participants' Decision Process and The Dynamics of Ripple Effect on Korean Housing Market - Focusing on The Cause of Housing Market Stagnation and Housing Policies After 2008 Global Financial Crisis - (국내 주택시장 참여자의 거래의사 결정과정 및 시장 파급효과의 동태적 분석 - 금융위기 이후의 주택시장 침체원인 및 주택정책을 중심으로 -)

  • Hyun, Hosang;Lee, Hyun-Soo;Park, Moonseo;Hwang, Sungjoo
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.147-159
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    • 2014
  • After 2008 global financial crisis, Korean housing market has experienced stagnation. So it caused housing market problems like housing price reduction, rising rent cost and so on. For housing market normalization government announced policies but Korean housing market didn't recover from stagnation. So, to understand why Korean housing market couldn't overcome the recession and why the policies didn't be effective, this research analyzed housing market participants (home owner, housing demand) based on the law of supply and demand and the psychological effect on their transaction intention based on behavioral economics(behavioral finance). Based on the analysis this research tested the effectiveness of announced policies using System Dynamics. The result showed that the amount of transaction and mortgage loan was influenced by the length of time to draft policies.

The Analysis on the Characteristics of Residential Mobility by Life-Cycle (생애주기에 따른 주거이동 특성 분석)

  • Choi, Yeol;Kim, Young-Min;Cho, Seong-Ho
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.3D
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    • pp.313-321
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    • 2010
  • This study analysed the characteristics of residential mobility according to the household's life-cycle to observe the housing filtering process in Busan. The questionary subjects were adult 40 and over who inhabited in Busan and surveyed residential career about residential mobility. The analysis result of statistical data and result of questionary reveals similar result every articles, the summaries are as follows : Examining housing where the respondent live presently, apartment dominate absolutely high ratio as housing type and owner-occupation as housing tenure type, and housing size is about 30 pyeong, dwelling period is 6 years to 10 years. Saving and loan hold a large majority to make housing capital, that means, they apply housing finance to getting own housing despite it is impossible with present household's income to have owner-occupation of desired housing. This is different custom ours from foreign's that rent a house. However, as aspect of residential satisfaction, most household recognised that quality is improved, because residential mobility expanded housing size and changed tenure type and showed fairly high satisfaction with their present resident.

A Study on the Need to Introduce Super-Long-Term Mortgage to Expand Freedom of Housing Choice (주거선택 자유 확대를 위한 초장기 모기지 도입 필요성에 관한 연구)

  • Hong, Sung-Hyun;Hong, Hee-Jeong
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.13-19
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to find a reasonable solution that is compatible with the government's policy on calming the overheated housing market and the needs of prospective home buyers. For this purpose, this study analyzed the current state of the housing market and looked at the root cause of the people's desire to purchase housing. And this study suggested the need to introduce a super-long-term mortgage system that can help people choose whether to own or rent a house in accordance with individual preferences. The super-long-term mortgage system would be useful in that the majority of people who currently use mortgages prefer long-term loan products and that it could provide a chance to "get their own homes" by easing the monthly repayment burden for those who want to have homes. If the system is introduced in the future, it is necessary to make efforts for stable operation such as risk-hedge. In particular, the government should apply a limited application to end-users so that they can curb rising housing prices and contribute to stabilizing housing prices.

The Effect of Interest Rate Variability on Housing Prices (이자율 변동이 주택가격에 미치는 영향)

  • Han, Myung-hoon
    • Journal of Venture Innovation
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2022
  • The real estate market is an important part of a country's economy and plays a major role in economic growth through the growth of many related industries. Changes in interest rates affect asset prices and have a significant impact on housing prices. This study analyzed housing prices by dividing them into nationwide, local, and Seoul housing prices in order to analyze whether the effect of changes in interest rates on housing prices shows regional differences. The analysis was conducted from the first quarter of 2011 to the fourth quarter of 2021, and was analyzed using the DOLS model. The main analysis results are as follows. First, interest rates were found to have a significant negative effect on national housing prices, and a drop in interest rates significantly increased national housing prices and an increase in interest rates significantly lowered national housing prices. The consumer price index and loan growth rate also had a positive effect on housing prices nationwide, but statistical significance was not high. Second, interest rates had a negative effect on local housing prices, unlike national housing prices, but were not statistically significant. On the other hand, it was found that the consumer price index and loan growth rate had a larger and significant positive effect on local housing prices compared to national housing prices. Finally, it was found that the interest rate had the only significant negative effect on housing prices in Seoul. And this effect was greater and more significant than the effect on national and local housing prices. In the end, it was found that the effect of interest rates on Korean housing prices differs locally. Interest rates have a significant negative effect on national housing prices, and local housing prices, but they are not statistically significant. In addition, the interest rate was found to have the largest and most significant negative effect on housing prices in Seoul. In addition, it was found that there was a difference in the effect of macroeconomic variables on housing prices. This means that there are differences between regions with different factors influencing local and Seoul housing prices, and this point should be considered when drafting and implementing real estate policies.

A Study on a Rhabilitation Design, Decision Making and Housing Management Policies for Reuse of Deteriorated Apartments in Korea (노후아파트 재활용을 위한 건축디자인 의사결정 및 관리정책 연구)

  • Shon, Seung-Kwang;Cho, Hyung-Geun;Cho, Sun-Chul;Choi, Il
    • Journal of the Korean housing association
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.77-88
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    • 2002
  • This article deals the investigations how to solve the social deficiencies of deteriorate apartments, which is a half cycle of a building and it goes slum clearance and redevelopment. And this proposes an active remodeling and design strategy, management, and housing policies for extending the usage of the resource. Most of apartment housing in Korea is built by the panel wall and slab structure system fur economic price. To remake is possible, even though not designed in flexibility and variation. The remodeling strategies are dwelling unification, transformation of two units to one or three units, addition of a room, changing into commercial and community required spaces, and reshaping of a envelop and facade by addition of a dwelling or dwellings, roof floors, change of materials and colors, and so on. And, all activities in structural aspect are proposed removal in upper part and addition in lower part of an apartment housing. Active remodeling cost a great deal compare to new construction, so any remodeling activities should be based on a minimal interfere and budgets to enhancing the quality in existing building. The final aim of an active remodeling is to enhance the quality in economic values, and to keep original state and to put on the new one in a small part. To promote the active and careful management and rehabilitation, it is necessary to give the positive incentive in terms of architectural law, bank loan, and any redevelopment project should get the remodeling record in national resources.

Analysis of the Korean Real Estate Market and Boosting Policies Focusing on Mortgage Loans: Using System Dynamics (주택담보대출 규제 완화에 따른 부동산시장 영향 분석: 시스템다이내믹스 모형 개발)

  • Hwang, Sung-Joo;Park, Moon-Seo;Lee, Hyun-Soo;Yoon, You-Sang
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.101-112
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    • 2010
  • The Korean real estate market currently is experiencing a slowdown due to the global economic crisis which has resulted from subprime mortgage lending practices. In response, the Korean government has enforced various policies, based on intend to deregulate real estate speculation, such as increasing the Loan to value ratio (LTV) in order to stimulate housing supply, demand and accompanying housing transactions. However, these policies have appeared to result in deep confusion in the Korean housing market. Furthermore, analyses for housing market forecasting particularly those which examine the impact of the international financial crisis on the Korean real estate market have been partial and fragmentary. Therefore, a comprehensive and systematical approach is required to analyze the real estate financial market and the causal nexus between market determining factors. Thus, with an integrated perspective and applying a system dynamics methodology, this paper proposes Korean Real Estate and Mortgage Market dynamics models based on the fundamental principles of housing markets, which are determined by supply and demand. As well, the potential effects of the Korean government's deregulation policies are considered by focusing on the main factor of these policies: the mortgage loan.