• Title/Summary/Keyword: historical cost data estimating

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Estimation of a Level of Service and Cost of Service Function for Road Pavements for Performance Management in the Public Sector (공공부문 성과관리를 위한 도로포장의 서비스수준과 서비스비용 함수 추정)

  • HAN, Daeseok;LEE, Suhyung;LEE, Sang Hyuk;YOO, In-kyoon
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.9-18
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    • 2016
  • PURPOSES : This study aimed to evaluate the performance of pavement management works and to develop a function for estimating the level of service (LOS) and cost of service (COS) for the systematic and quantitative management of pavement performance in the public sector. METHODS : The International Roughness Index (IRI) was used as the performance index for pavement management. Long-term pavement performance data for a period of 7 years (2007-2014) collected by the National Highway Pavement Management System and historical maintenance budget data published by the South Korean government were used to develop the LOS-COS function. Based on the function, a model for estimating the appropriate budget as well as the network conditions was suggested. RESULTS : There was high degree of correlation between pavement performance and the investment level (R = - 0.74). The developed LOS-COS function suggested that the unit cost to improve the network IRI to 1 m/km was 32.6 billion KRW. Further, the maintenance costs normalized with respect to the LOS levels were LOS-A = 88.2 billion KRW, LOS-B = 55.6 billion KRW, and LOS-C = 23.0 billion KRW. CONCLUSIONS : This study proposes a simple way of developing a LOS-COS function. It also shows how to develop a network budget demand and condition estimation model using the LOS-COS function. In addition, it is the first attempt to evaluate the road maintenance budget in South Korea. It is expected that these results will help in the negotiations between the road managers and budget makers.

Conceptual Cost Estimation Model Using by a Parametric Method for High-speed Railroad (매개변수기법을 이용한 고속철도 노반공사의 개략공사비 예측모델)

  • Lee, Young Joo;Jang, Seong Yong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.31 no.4D
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    • pp.595-601
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    • 2011
  • There is currently applied to the unit cost per a distance (KRW/km) for estimating the conceptual cost of civil work on basic planning stage of high speed railroad. This unit cost is an arithmetic average value based on historical data, which could be in big error. It also is difficult to explain the deficiency comparing the estimated cost derived from next basic design stage. This study provides the conceptual estimation model using by the parametric method and regression analysis. Independent variables are the distance and the geological materials (earth, weathered rock, soft-rock, hard-rock), extracting from the actual data to 36 contracts. The deviation between the unit costs estimated using the developed model and the actual cost data is presented in the range from -0.4% to +31%. This range is acceptable compared the typical range "-30% to + 50%". This model will improve the accuracy of existing method and be expected to contribute to effective total cost management and the economic aspects, reduce the financial expenditure.

A Study on the Time Series Analysis of the Actual Unit Cost based on the Bid Prices (시계열을 이용한 실적단가 예측방안에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Won-Young;Seo, Jong-Won;Kang, Sang-Hyeok;Choi, Bong-Joon
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.50-57
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    • 2009
  • The Korea Standard of Estimate which has been used as the only basis of Cost estimate of public construction projects is failed to reflect the fluctuation of current construction cost. Therefore, the government decided to gradually introduce historical construction cost into cost estimate of public construction projects from 2004 and to reduce the use of Korean Standard of Estimate. This paper presents a series of process and the methodology for computing Actual Cost and analyzing the fluctuation patterns based on not only previous contract prices which made a successful bid but also all of the other bid prices. Also, this paper mainly handles a device for extracting strategic bid price such as low price bid for assuring reliable data and for predicting the construction cost which is built by Wavelet Analysis of Time series Analysis data and Neural Network. It is anticipated that the effective use of the proposed process for estimating actual unit cost would make the cost estimation more current and reasonable.

Development on Repair and Reinforcement Cost Model for Bridge Life-Cycle Maintenance Cost Analysis (교량 유지관리비용 분석을 위한 대표 보수보강 비용모델 개발)

  • Sun, Jong-Wan;Lee, Dong-Yeol;Park, Kyung-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.11
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    • pp.128-134
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    • 2016
  • Estimating the repair and reinforcement (R&R) costs for each bridge member is essential for managing the life cycle of a bridge using a bridge management system (BMS). Representative members of a bridge were defined in this study, and detailed and representative R&R methods for each one were drawn in order to develop a systematic maintenance cost model that is applicable to the BMS. The unit cost for each detailed R&R method was established using the standard of estimate and historical cost data, and a systematic procedure is presented using an integration program to enable easy renewal of the R&R unit cost. Also, the average unit cost of the representative R&R methods was calculated in the form of a weighted average by considering the unit cost and application frequency of each detained R&R method. The appropriateness of the drawn average unit cost was reviewed by comparing and verifying it with the previous historical unit cost. The suggested average R&R unit cost can be used to review the validity of the required budget or the appropriateness of the R&R performance cost in the stage to establish the bridge maintenance plan. The results of this study are expected to improve the reliability of maintenance cost information and the rationality of decision making.

Productivity Analysis on the Standard Quantity-Per-Unit Costing Method and Work Crew Combination Method : Focused on Non-Vibration Mass Excavation Method (무진동굴착공법의 일위대가방식과 작업조방식의 생산성 비교 분석)

  • Lee, Dong Wook;Cho, Hong Jun;Lee, Keun Jo;Kim, Nam-Sik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.31 no.3D
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    • pp.457-468
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    • 2011
  • Recently, the non-vibration mass excavation method is used on sewage pipes and road construction sites in Jeju. However, a construction cost estimation based on the unit quantity does not provide a proper unit price. In this study, a comparison of the productivity of the standard quantity-per-unit costing method and the one of the work crew combination method was made based on the site monitoring of the non-vibration mass excavation method that is used in construction sites near Jeju. For this, data of 35 sites were collected: a regression equation was derived from the 30 data, and verification was carried out through the remaining 5 data. The analysis concluded that a day's workload is $16.43m^3$. In addition, a combination of the equipment considering the site conditions and the amount of labor, which varies with the number of work crew was obtained in order to estimate the construction cost of the work crew combination method. The construction cost was calculated based on the one-day workload ($16.43m^3$) derived from the regression analysis. The cost then was analyzed and compared with the standard quantity-per-unit costing method.

A Method of Assigning Weight Values for Qualitative Attributes in CBR Cost Model (사례기반추론 코스트 모델의 정성변수 속성가중치 산정방법)

  • Lee, Hyun-Soo;Kim, Soo-Young;Park, Moon-Seo;Ji, Sae-Hyun;Seong, Ki-Hoon;Pyeon, Jae-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.53-61
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    • 2011
  • For construction projects, the importance of early cost estimates is highly recognized by the project team and sponsoring organization because early cost estimates are frequently a foundation of business decisions as well as a basis for identifying any changes as the project progresses from design to construction. However, it is difficult to accurately estimate construction cost in the early stage of a project due to various uncertainties in construction. To deal with these uncertainties, cost estimates should be made several times over the course of the project. In particular, early cost estimates are essential process for successful project management. For accurate construction cost estimates, it is necessary to compare cost estimates with actual costs based on historical project data. In this context, case-based reasoning (CBR), which is the process of solving new problems based on the solutions of similar past problems, can be considered as an effective method for cost estimating. To obtain this, it is also required to define the attribute similarities and the attribute weights. However, no existing method is capable of determining attribute weights of qualitative variables. Consequently, it has been a well-known barrier of accurate early cost estimates. Using Genetic Algorithms (GA), this research suggests the method of determining the attribute weight of qualitative variables. Based on building project case studies, the proposed methodology was validated.

A Model of Work Breakdown Structure for being applied to Historical Data in BTL Project for Educational Facilities (교육시설 BTL 사업의 실적공사비 적용을 위한 작업분류체계(WBS) 구축)

  • Kim, Sung-Kyum;Cho, Chang-Yeon;Son, Jae-Ho;Kim, Jae-On
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 2007.11a
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    • pp.499-502
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    • 2007
  • The government abolished the existing method to calculate the construction price by the quantity take-off and pricing. It has introduced a new estimating system which uses the actual cost data on the basis of actual contract unit price. However, in the case of the current method to calculate the estimate price of BTL educational facilities, it is difficult to prepare an accurate ground for calculating unit prices due to a lack of standardized work breakdown structure (WBS) and guidelines for the detailed bidding documents. Thus, this research aims to establish WBS using the actual construction price on the basis of the actual bidding documents for the previous construction of BTL educational facilities. This specific WBS can be differentiated from the general WBS which is not suited for construction of the educational facility. It makes possible to build the construction information classification system and it helps to systemize the maintenance and repair cost items.

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Development of a Conceptual Estimate Methodology for Plant Construction Projects (플랜트 건설 프로젝트를 위한 개산견적 방법론 개발)

  • Kim, Hyun-Joong;Choi, Jaehyun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.141-150
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    • 2019
  • In the overseas plant construction market, the domain construction firms' construction capability has been greatly improved, but the capability of project management is evaluated to be insufficient compared to the technical aspect. Project management capabilities from the initial planning stage of project execution are regarded as the core competence of advanced construction companies. Among them, it is urgent to improve the capacity of conceptual estimate for domestic companies. In this study, the researchers surveyed and analyzed the methodology of estimating project cost in the planning phase of the plant project and developed an estimation method by conducting a case study analysis. Based on the logic of the cost index and parametric estimation method among the existing estimation methodology, the estimation tool was developed by deriving the input and output variables tailored to the plant project. The validity of the proposed methodology was evaluated by comparing the accuracy between the project estimate amount of the case project and the actual project amount. In order to increase the utilization of the developed conceptual estimate methodology,for plant construction project, it is necessary to systematize the data of the historical project data. Increasing the accuracy of future project cost estimates is directly related to increasing project award and profitability of the domestic construction company.

Development of an Approximate Cost Estimating Model for Bridge Construction Project using CBR Method (사례기반추론 기법을 이용한 교량 공사비 추론 모형 구축)

  • Kim, Min-Ji;Moon, Hyoun-Seok;Kang, Leen-Seok
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.42-52
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    • 2013
  • The aim of this study is to present a prediction model of construction cost for a bridge that has a high reliability using historical data from the planning phase based on a CBR (Case-Based Reasoning) method in order to overcome limitations of existing construction cost prediction methods, which is linearly estimated. To do this, a reasoning model of bridge construction cost by a spreadsheet template was suggested using complexly both CBR and GA (Genetic Algorithm). Besides, this study performed a case study to verify the suggested cost reasoning model for bridge construction projects. Measuring efficiency for a result of the case study was 8.69% on average. Since accuracy of the suggested prediction cost is relatively high compared to the other analysis methods for a prediction of construction cost, reliability of the suggested model was secured. In the case that information for detailed specifications of each bridge type in an initial design phase is difficult to be collected, the suggested model is able to predict the bridge construction cost within the minimized measuring efficiency with only the representative specifications for bridges as an improved correction method. Therefore, it is expected that the model will be used to estimate a reasonable construction cost for a bridge project.

Estimation on Optimum Fishing Effort of Walleye Pollock Fishery in the East Coast of Korea : Based on the Economic Analysis between Danish Seine Fishery and Trawl Fishery for Walleye Pollock (한국 동해 명태 어업의 적정어획노력량 추정 -동해구기선저인망어업과 동해구트롤어업의 경제성분석을 근거로-)

  • 이장욱
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.75-99
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    • 1991
  • A quantitative analysis was carried out to monitor the commercial yield level of walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma in the east coast of Korea, based on available data on catch and fishing effort, catch per unit of effort including fish prices from 1911 to 1988, using a traditional yield model. The results from the quantitative assessment were based to estimate maximum economic yield (MEY) and optimal fishing effort (E-opt) at MEY. On the other hand, interaction aspects between danish seine fishery and trawl fishery mainly targeting walleye pollock in the east coast of Korea were studied to predict optimal situation in fishing effort level from economic point of view which gives the most benefits to the two fisheries. Total production of walleye pollock in 1911 when its catch record was begun for the first time was about 12, 000 metric tons(M/T), and then the catch trend maintained nearly at the level of 50, 000 M/T per annum, showing a decreasing trend until 1930. The highest production from historical data base on walleye pollock fishery statistics was from the years in 1939 and 1940, about 270, 000 M/T and 26, 000 M/T, respectively. No production of the fish species was recorded during the years from 1943 to 1947, and from 1949 to 1951. From 1952 onwards annual production was only available from the southern part of 38$^{\circ}$N in the east coast. During two decades from 1952 to 1970, the production had sustained about less than 30, 000 M/T every year. Annual production showed an increasing trend from 1971, reaching a maximum level of approximately 162, 000 M/T in 1981. Afterwards, it has deceased sharply year after year and amounted to 180, 000 M/T in 1988. The catch composition of walleye pollock for different fishery segments during 1970~1988 showed that more than 70% of the total catch was from danish seine fishery until 1977 but from 1978 onwards, the catch proportion did not differ from one another, accounting for the nearly same proportion. Catch per unit of effort (CPUE) for both danish seine fishery and trawl fishery maintained a decline tendency after 1977 when the values of CPUE were at level of 800 kg/haul for the former fishery and 1, 300 kg/haul for the latter fishery, respectively. CPUEs of gillnet fishery during 1980~1983 increased to about 3.5 times as high value as in the years, 1970~1979 and during 1987~1988 it decreased again to the level of the years, 1970~1978. The bottom longline fishery's CPUE wa at a very low level (20 kg/basket) through the whole study years, with exception of the value (60 kg/basket) in 1980. Fishing grounds of walleye pollock in the east coast of Korea showed a very limited distribution range. Danish seine fishery concentrated fishing around the coastal areas of Sokcho and Jumunjin during January~February and October~December. Distributions of fishing grounds of trawl fishery were the areas along the coastal regions in the central part of the east coast. Gillnet and bottom longline fisheries fished walleye pollock mainly in the areas of around Sokcho and Jumunjin during January~February and December. Relationship between CPUEs' values from danish seine fishery and trawl fishery was used to standardize fishing effort to apply to surplus production model for estimating maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and optimum fish effort (F-opt) at MSY. The results suggested a MSY of 114, 000 M/T with an estimated F-opt of 173, 000 hauls per year. Based on the estimates of MSY and F-opt, MEY was estimated to be about 94, 000 M/T with a range of 81, 000 to 103, 000 M/T and E-opt 100, 000 hauls per year with a range of 80, 000 to 120, 000 hauls. The estimated values of MEY and E-opt corresponded to 82% of MSY and 58% of F-opt, respectively. An optimal situation in the fishing effort level, which can envisage either simultaneously maximum yield or maximum benefit for both danish seine fishery and trawl fishery, was determined from relationship between revenue and cost of running the fleet : the optimal fishing effort of danish seine fishery was about 52, 000 hauls per year, corresponding to 50 danish seiners and 27, 000 hauls per year which is equal nearly to 36 trawlers, respectively. It was anticipated that the net income from sustainable yield estimated from the respective optimal fishing effort of the two fisheries will be about 3, 800 million won for danish seine fishery and 1, 000 million won for trawl fishery.

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