• Title/Summary/Keyword: health care expenditures time-series analysis

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Trend and Prediction of Urban Family Expenditure for Health Care (도시 가계의료비 지출의 추이와 예측)

  • Park, Jae-Yong;Nam, Si-Hyun
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.28 no.2 s.50
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    • pp.347-363
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    • 1995
  • The increase of health care expenditures is an important problem in the almost countries. Also, suppression of the health care expenditures is an important problem in the health field of Korea since the national health insurance for total people in 1989. Thus, it is very important to grasp the change of the health care expenditures of family and proportions of the health care expenditures to total expenditures of family, because they are the basis of national health care expenditures in Korea. While the health care expenditures of urban family were increased during 1980-1993 by 12.8% annually, the total expenditures of urban family were increased by 14.8% annually. Consequently, the proportions of health care expenditures to total expenditures were decreased from 5.98% to 4.76%. The proportions of health care expenditure for 3 years to come were predicted to 4.75% in 1994, 4.67% in 1995, and 4.63% in 1996 by the time-series analysis. That is, it was predicted that they would be decreasing slowly. The product elasticity of health care expenditure was less than 1 in the multiple regression analysis. so the health care is normal good rather than superior good. Therefore, it seems that the household economy is able to bear the expense pursuing the improvement of quality of health care by actualizing the medical insurance fee.

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Impacts of Implementation of Patient Referral System in terms of Medical Expenditures and Medical Utilization (의료전달체계 정책효과 분석)

  • Jung, Sang-Hyuk;Kim, Han-Joong
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.28 no.1 s.49
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    • pp.207-223
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    • 1995
  • A new medical delivery system which regulated outpatient department(OPD) use from tertiary care hospitals was adopted in 1989. Under the new system, patients using tertiary care hospital OPD without referral slip from clinics or hospitals could not get any insurance benefit for the services received from the tertiary care hospital. This study was conducted to evaluate the Patient Referral System(PRS) with respect to health care expenditures and utilization. Two data sets were used in this study. One was monthly data set(from January 1986 to December 1992) from the Annual Report of Korea Medical Insurance Corporation(KMIC). The other was monthly joint data set composed of personal data of which 10% were selected randomly with their utilization data of KMIC from January 1988 to December 1992. The data were analyzed by time-series intervention model of SAS-ETS. The results of this study were as follows: 1. There was no statistically significant changes in per capita expenditures following PRS. 2. Utilization episodes per capita was increased statistically significantly after implementation of PRS. The use of clinics and hospitals increased significantly, whereas in tertiary care hospitals the use decreased significantly immediately after implementation of PRS and increased afterwards. 3. Follow-up visits per episode were decreased statistically significantly after implementation of PRS. The decrease of follow-up visits per episode were remarkable in clinics and hospitals, whereas in tertiary care hospitals it was increased significantly after implementation of PRS. 4. There was no statistically significant changes in prescribing days per episode following PRS. Futhermore, clinics and hospitals showed a statistically significant decrease in prescribing days per episode, whereas in tertiary care hospital it showed statistically significant increase after implementation of PRS. 5. Except high income class, the use of tertiary care hospitals showed statistically significant decrease after implementation of PRS. The degree of decrease in the use of tertiary care hospitals was inversely proportional to income. These results suggest that the PRS policy was not efficient because per capita expenditures did not decrease, and was not effective because utilization episodes per capita, follow-up visits per episode. and prescribing days per episode were not predictable and failed to show proper utilization. It was somewhat positive that utilization episodes per capita were decreased temporarily in tertiary care hospitals. And PRS policy was not appropriate because utilization episodes per capita was different among income groups. In conclusion, the PRS should be revised for initial goal attainment of cost containment and proper health care utilization.

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Trend of Medical Care Utilization and Medical Expenditure of the Elderly Cohort (노인 코호트의 의료이용 및 입원진료비 변화 추이 -공.교 의료보험 대상자를 대상으로-)

  • Lee, Kyeong-Soo;Kang, Pock-Soo
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.30 no.2 s.57
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    • pp.437-461
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    • 1997
  • Because of a significant improvement in the economic situation and development of scientific techniques in Korea during the last 30 years, the life expectancy of the Korean people has lengthened considerably and as a result, the number of the elderly has markedly increased. Such an increase of the number of aged population brought about many social, economic, and medical problems which were never seriously considered before. This study was conducted to assess the trend of medical care utilization and medical expenditure of the elderly. The data of each patient in the study were taken from computer database maintained for administrative purpose by the Korea Medical Insurance Corporation. The study population was 132,670 who were 60 years old or more and registered in Korean Medical Insurance Corporation from 1989 to 1993. The study subjects were predominantly female(56.3%) and 10,000-20,000 Won premium group(50.6%). The following are summaries of findings : The total increase of the number of inpatient cases was 40.5% from 1989 through 1993. The average annual increase was 3.7% in inpatient medical expenditures per case, 4.4% in inpatient medical expenditures per day and 0.08% in length of stay per case from 1989 through 1993. Cataract was the most prevalent disease of 10 leading frequent diseases in all ages from 1989 through 1993. The case mix in 1993 compared to 1989 revealed that cataract and ischemic cerebral disease were increased whereas essential hypertension and pulmonary tuberculosis were decreased . The average annual increase of medical expenditures was 3.8% in general hospitals, 6.3% in hospitals and 2.4% in clinics. From 1989 through 1993, medical expenditures used by high-cost patients accounted for about 14% to 20% of all expenditures for inpatient care, while they represented less than 2.5% of the elderly population. Time series analysis revealed that total medical expenditures and doctor's fee for inpatient will be progressively increased whereas drug expenditures for inpatient will be decreased. And there will be no change in length of stay. Based on the above results, the factors increasing medical cost and utilization should be identified and the method of cost containment for the elderly health care should be developed systematically.

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Impacts of the Implementation of the DRG Based Prospective Payment System on the Medicare Expenditures (DRG 도입이 메디케어 의료비 증가억제에 미친 효과)

  • Kim, Han-Joong;Nam, Chung-Mo
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.27 no.1 s.45
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    • pp.107-116
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    • 1994
  • The United States adopted DRG based prospective payment system (PPS) in order to control the inflation of health care costs. No study used statistical test while many studies reported the cost containing effect of the PPS. To study impacts of the PPS on the Medicare expenditure, this study set the following three hypotheses (1) The PPS decelerated the increase in the hospital expenditure (Part A), (2) the PPS accelerated the increase in the expenditure of outpatients and physicians (Part B), (3) the increase in total expenditure was decelerated inspite of the spill over (substitution) effect because saving in the Part A expenditure were greater than losses in the Part B expenditure. The dependent variables are per capita hospital expenditure, per capita Part B expenditure, and per capita total expenditure for the Medicare beneficiaries. An intervention analysis, which added intervention effect to the time series variation on the Box-Jenkins model, was used. The observations included 120 months from 1978 to 1987. The results are as follows : (1) The annual increase in the per capita Part A expenditure was $5.11 after the implementation of DRG where as that before the PPS had been $11.1. The effect of the reduction ($5.99) was statistically significient (t=-3.9). (2) The spill over (substitution) effect existed because the annual increase in the per capita Part B expenditure was accelerated by $1.73 (t=1.91) after the implementation of the PPS. (3) The increase in the total Medicare expenditure per capita was reduced by $4.26 (t=-2.19) because the spill over effect was less than cost savings in the Part A expenditure.

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