• Title/Summary/Keyword: hazard rate order

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Studies on Development of Prediction Model of Landslide Hazard and Its Utilization (산지사면(山地斜面)의 붕괴위험도(崩壞危險度) 예측(豫測)모델의 개발(開發) 및 실용화(實用化) 방안(方案))

  • Ma, Ho-Seop
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.83 no.2
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    • pp.175-190
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    • 1994
  • In order to get fundamental information for prediction of landslide hazard, both forest and site factors affecting slope stability were investigated in many areas of active landslides. Twelve descriptors were identified and quantified to develop the prediction model by multivariate statistical analysis. The main results obtained could be summarized as follows : The main factors influencing a large scale of landslide were shown in order of precipitation, age group of forest trees, altitude, soil texture, slope gradient, position of slope, vegetation, stream order, vertical slope, bed rock, soil depth and aspect. According to partial correlation coefficient, it was shown in order of age group of forest trees, precipitation, soil texture, bed rock, slope gradient, position of slope, altitude, vertical slope, stream order, vegetation, soil depth and aspect. The main factors influencing a landslide occurrence were shown in order of age group of forest trees, altitude, soil texture, slope gradient, precipitation, vertical slope, stream order, bed rock and soil depth. Two prediction models were developed by magnitude and frequency of landslide. Particularly, a prediction method by magnitude of landslide was changed the score for the convenience of use. If the total store of the various factors mark over 9.1636, it is evaluated as a very dangerous area. The mean score of landslide and non-landslide group was 0.1977 and -0.1977, and variance was 0.1100 and 0.1250, respectively. The boundary value between the two groups related to slope stability was -0.02, and its predicted rate of discrimination was 73%. In the score range of the degree of landslide hazard based on the boundary value of discrimination, class A was 0.3132 over, class B was 0.3132 to -0.1050, class C was -0.1050 to -0.4196, class D was -0.4195 below. The rank of landslide hazard could be divided into classes A, B, C and D by the boundary value. In the number of slope, class A was 68, class B was 115, class C was 65, and class D was 52. The rate of landslide occurrence in class A and class B was shown at the hige prediction of 83%. Therefore, dangerous areas selected by the prediction method of landslide could be mapped for land-use planning and criterion of disaster district. And also, it could be applied to an administration index for disaster prevention.

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Exponentiated Quasi Lindley distribution

  • Elbatal, I.;Diab, L.S.;Elgarhy, M.
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2016
  • The Exponentiated Quasi Lindley (EQL) distribution which is an extension of the quasi Lindley Distribution is introduced and its properties are explored. This new distribution represents a more flexible model for the lifetime data. Some statistical properties of the proposed distribution including the shapes of the density and hazard rate functions, the moments and moment generating function, the distribution of the order statistics are given. The maximum likelihood estimation technique is used to estimate the model parameters and finally an application of the model with a real data set is presented for the illustration of the usefulness of the proposed distribution.

Safety Assessment Analysis of the Rotorcraft Fuel Pumps (회전익기 연료펌프 안전성 평가 분석)

  • Lee, Junghoon;Park, Jang-Won
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.21-25
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    • 2013
  • The system and components for aircraft are required the design data on which the safety requirements are properly reflected for their certification. This paper presents the procedure and results of a safety assessments analysis for the rotorcraft fuel pumps in oder to confirm and verify them. The fuel pumps design assessment must be performed, including a detailed failure analysis to identify all failures that will prevent continued safe flight or safe landing. In order to assess the fuel pumps design safety, not only system safety hazard analysis and but FTA(Fault Tree Analysis) for proofing the safety objective of the fuel pumps are performed. The results of the safety assessment for fuel pumps validate that no single failure or malfunction could result in catastrophic failure or critical accidents of the rotorcraft.

A Study of Thermal Stability on Polymers and Sodium Azide Mixture by DSC (DSC에 의한 고분자물과 나트륨아지드 혼합물의 열안정성에 관한 연구)

  • 이내우;박준조
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.87-94
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    • 1997
  • If sodium azide is impinged by certain reasons, it will be produced explosives by heavy metals and toxic materials. But it is used propellent for inflating automotive safety bags and the other chemical manufacturing purpose. The investigation of thermal hazard potential of sodium azide itself and with polymers ate very important because some parts of automotives, transporting vessels of reactive chemicals and many any other constituents of structures in factories are made of polymers. The range of decomposition temperatures are about $360-380^{\circ}C$, even if it depends on heating rate and sample weight. Thermal decomposition heat of sodium azide in air is higher than in nitrogen atmosphere, because the former is included oxidizing heats of sodium metal which is made by decomposition of sodium azide to end. Especially decomposition temperature of polymers are increased on the order of bonding energy between atoms in hydrocarbon moleculars.

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Molecular Dynamics Simulation Study on Segmental Motion in Liquid Normal Heptadecane

  • 이송희;김한수;박형석
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.19 no.11
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    • pp.1217-1221
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    • 1998
  • We present results of molecular dynamic (MD) simulations for the segmental motion of liquid n-heptadecane in order to investigate conformational transitions from one rotational isomeric state to another. The behavior of the hazard plots for n-heptadecane obtained from our MD simulations are compared with that for polymer of Brownian dynamics (BD) study. The transition rate at the ending dihedrals of the n-heptadecane chain is much higher than that at the central dihedrals. In the study of correlation between transitions of neighboring dihedrals, the large value of c2 implies that some 30% of the transitions of the second neighbors can be regarded as following transitions two bonds away in a correlated fashion. Finally the analysis of multiple transitions and the number of times occurred in the initial 0.005 ns are discussed.

Fuzzy PID Control of Warranty Claims Time Series (보증 클레임 시계열 데이터를 위한 퍼지 PID 제어)

  • Lee, Sang-Hyun;Lee, Sang-Joon;Moon, Kyung-Il;Cho, Sung-Eui
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.175-185
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    • 2009
  • Objectifying claims filed during the warranty period, analyzing the current circumstances and improving on the problem in question is an activity worth doing that could reduce the likelihood of claims to occur, cut down on the costs, and enhance the corporate image of the manufacturer. Existing analyses of claims are confronted with two problems. First, you can't precisely assess the risks of claims involved by means of the value of claims per 100 products alone. Second, even in a normal state, the existing approach fails to capture the probabilistic conflicts that escape the upper control limit of claims, thus leading to wrong control activities. To solve the first problem, this paper proposed that a time series detection concept where the claim rate is monitored based on the date when problems are processed and a hazard function for expression of the claim rate be utilized. For the second problem, this paper designed a model whereby to define a normal state by making use of PID (Proportion, Integral, Differential) and infer by way of a fuzzy concept. This paper confirmed the validity and applicability of the proposed approach by applying methods suggested in the actual past data of warranty claims of a large-scaled automotive firm, unlike hypothetical simulation data, in order to apply them directly in industrial job sites, as well as making theoretical suggestions for analysis of claims.

Allocation of Safety Integrity Level for Railway Platform Screen Door System considering Semi-Quantitative Risk Reduction Factor (반 정량적 리스크 저감 요소를 고려한 철도 승강장 스크린 도어시스템의 안전 무결성 수준 할당)

  • Song, Ki Tae;Lee, Sung Ill
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.156-163
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    • 2016
  • There exists required safety integrity level (SIL) to assure safety in accordance with international standards for every electrical / electronics / control equipment or systems with safety related functions. The SIL is allocated from lowest level (level 0) to highest level (level 4). In order to guarantee certain safety level that is internationally acceptable, application of methodology for SIL allocation and demonstration based on related international standards is required. However, the theoretical and practical study for safety integrity level is barely under way in the domestic railway industry. This research studied not only the global process of SIL allocation to guarantee safety in accordance with international standards for safety related equipment and system, but the quantitative methodology based on international standard and the semi-quantitative methodology as alternative way for SIL allocation. Specifically, the systematic SIL allocation for platform screen door system of railway is studied applying the semi-quantitative methodology in order to save much time and effort compared to quantitative method.

Application of Urban Hydrologic Monitoring System for Urban Runoff Analysis (도시유출해석을 위한 도시수문 모니터링 기법 적용)

  • Seo, Kyu-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.5 no.2 s.17
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    • pp.37-44
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    • 2005
  • It reflects well feature of slope that is characteristic of urban river basin of Busan local. In this study, process various hydrological data and basin details data which is collected through basin basis data, hydrological monitoring system(EMS-DEU) and automatic water level equipment(AWS-DEU) for urban flood disaster prevention and use as basin input data of ILLUDAS, SWMM and HEC-HMS in order to examine outflow feature of experiment basin and then use in reservoir design of experiment basin through calibration and verification about HEC-HMS. Inserted design rainfall for 30 years that is design criteria of creek into HEC-HMS and then calculated design floods according to change aspect of the impermeable rate. Capacity of reservoir was determined on the outflow mass curve. Designed detention pond(volume $54,000m^3$) at last outlet upper stream of experiment basin, after designing reservoir. It could be confirmed that the peak flow was reduced resulting from examining outflow aspect. Designing reservoir must decrease outflow of urban areas.

Childrens' Health Risk Assessment on Indoor Hazardous Air Pollutants of Preschool Facility (유아교육시설 내 실내공기유해오염물질에 대한 어린이 건강위해성평가)

  • Koh, Yeon-Jung;Kim, Shin-Do;Park, Suk-Young;Jang, Seong-Ki
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.78-85
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    • 2009
  • In this study, the hazard rate of the indoor environment of Children's Educational Facilities in Seoul was conducted, in order to determine how the indoor environments of these facilities, where infants and children spend the most time of their away from home day, can effect their health. The way of measurement and analysis were done according to the Indoor Air Quality Standard Method, and the Risk Assessment was accomplished with several significant ways - Hazard Identification, Exposure Assessment, Dose-response Assessment, Risk Characterization, which are deighed by National Research Council (NRC). On each exposure factors, documentary and questionary research such as Epidemiological study and Toxicological study were conducted. The result of the CTE (Central tendency exposure) of Formaldehyde and Benzene by Monte-Carlo simulation was $6.79{\times}10^{-6}$, $2.50{\times}10^{-7}$ which in the case of Formaldehyde exceeded the permitted standard ($10^{-6}$) of the US EPA. The RME(Reasonable maximum exposure) was $7.31{\times}10^{-5}$, $2.65{\times}10^{-6}$ which did not exceed $10^{-4}$, the maximum permitted standards in the US EPA.

Early implant failure: a retrospective analysis of contributing factors

  • Kang, Dae-Young;Kim, Myeongjin;Lee, Sung-Jo;Cho, In-Woo;Shin, Hyun-Seung;Caballe-Serrano, Jordi;Park, Jung-Chul
    • Journal of Periodontal and Implant Science
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    • v.49 no.5
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    • pp.287-298
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: The aim of this retrospective study was to determine the prevalence of early implant failure using a single implant system and to identify the factors contributing to early implant failure. Methods: Patients who received implant treatment with a single implant system ($Luna^{(R)}$, Shinhung, Seoul, Korea) at Dankook University Dental Hospital from 2015 to 2017 were enrolled. The following data were collected for analysis: sex and age of the patient, seniority of the surgeon, diameter and length of the implant, position in the dental arch, access approach for sinus-floor elevation, and type of guided bone regeneration (GBR) procedure. The effect of each predictor was evaluated using the crude hazard ratio and the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) in univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, respectively. Results: This study analyzed 1,031 implants in 409 patients, who comprised 169 females and 240 males with a median age of 54 years (interquartile range [IQR], 47-61 years) and were followed up for a median of 7.2 months (IQR, 5.6-9.9 months) after implant placement. Thirty-five implants were removed prior to final prosthesis delivery, and the cumulative survival rate in the early phase at the implant level was 95.6%. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that seniority of the surgeon (residents: aHR=2.86; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.37-5.94) and the jaw in which the implant was placed (mandible: aHR=2.31; 95% CI, 1.12-4.76) exerted statistically significant effects on early implant failure after adjusting for sex, age, dimensions of the implant, and type of GBR procedure (preoperative and/or simultaneous) (P<0.05). Conclusions: Prospective studies are warranted to further elucidate the factors contributing to early implant failure. In the meantime, surgeons should receive appropriate training and carefully select the bone bed in order to minimize the risk of early implant failure.