• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제33권6호
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• pp.725-745
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• 2009

In this paper, probabilistic seismic performance assessment of a typical non-seismic RC frame building representative of a large inventory of existing buildings in developing countries is conducted. Nonlinear time-history analyses of the sample building are performed with 20 large-magnitude medium distance ground motions scaled to different levels of intensity represented by peak ground acceleration and 5% damped elastic spectral acceleration at the first mode period of the building. The hysteretic model used in the analyses accommodates stiffness degradation, ductility-based strength decay, hysteretic energy-based strength decay and pinching due to gap opening and closing. The maximum inter story drift ratios obtained from the time-history analyses are plotted against the ground motion intensities. A method is defined for obtaining the yielding and collapse capacity of the analyzed structure using these curves. The fragility curves for yielding and collapse damage levels are developed by statistically interpreting the results of the time-history analyses. Hazard-survival curves are generated by changing the horizontal axis of the fragility curves from ground motion intensities to their annual probability of exceedance using the log-log linear ground motion hazard model. The results express at a glance the probabilities of yielding and collapse against various levels of ground motion intensities.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제25권6호
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• pp.1591-1598
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• 2014

The reviews of the balance sheet of commercial banks showed that loan item constitutes the largest portion of bank's assets. Although the sector has highest rate of profit, it possesses the greatest risk. Identifying factors that can contribute in lifting-up the loan repayment rate of customers of Hawassa district commercial bank is the major goal of this study. A sample of 183 customers who took loan from October, 2005 to April, 2012 was taken from the bank record. Kaplan-Meier estimation method and univariate Cox proportional hazard model were applied to identify factors affecting bank loan repayment rate. The result from Kaplan-Meier survival estimation revealed that the loan repayment rate is significantly related with loan type, and previous loan experience, educational level and mode of repayment. The log-rank test indicates that the survival probability of loan customers is not statistically different in repaying the loan among groups classified by sex. Moreover, the univariate Cox proportional hazard model result portrayed that educational level, having previous loan experience, mode of repayment, collateral type and purpose of loan are significantly related with loan repayment rate of customers commercial bank. Hence, banks should design loan strategies giving special emphasis on the significant factors while they are giving loans to their customers.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제23권6호
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• pp.301-309
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• 2019

A methodology to assess seismic fragility of a nuclear power plant (NPP) using a conditional mean spectrum is proposed as an alternative to using a uniform hazard response spectrum. Rather than the single-scenario conditional mean spectrum, which is the conventional conditional mean spectrum based on a single scenario, a multi-scenario conditional mean spectrum is proposed for the case in which no single scenario is dominant. The multi-scenario conditional mean spectrum is defined as the weighted average of different conditional mean spectra, each one of which corresponds to an individual scenario. The weighting factors for scenarios are obtained from a deaggregation of seismic hazards. As a validation example, a seismic fragility assessment of an NPP containment structure is performed using a uniform hazard response spectrum and different single-scenario conditional mean spectra and multi-scenario conditional mean spectra. In the example, the number of scenarios primarily influences the median capacity of the evaluated structure. Meanwhile, the control frequency, a key parameter of a conditional mean spectrum, plays an important role in reducing logarithmic standard deviation of the corresponding fragility curves and corresponding high confidence of low probability of failure (HCLPF) capacity.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제20권4호
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• pp.445-455
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• 2021

Lake Van Basin, located in Eastern Turkey, is worth examining in terms of seismicity due to large-scale losses of property and life during the historical and instrumental period. The most important and largest province in this basin is Van. Recent indicators of the high seismicity risk in the province are damage occurring after devastating earthquakes in 2011 (Mw=7.2 and Mw=5.6) and lastly in 2020 Khoy (Mw=5.9). The seismic hazard analysis for Van and its districts in Eastern Turkey was performed in probabilistic manner. Analyses were made for thirteen different districts in Van. In this study, information is given about the tectonic setting and seismicity of Van. The probabilistic seismic hazard curves were obtained for a probability of exceedance of 2%, 10% and 50% in 50-year periods. The PGA values in the Van province vary from 0.24 g - 0.43 g for earthquakes with repetition period of 475 years. Risk priorities were determined for all districts. The highest risk was calculated for Çaldıran and the lowest risk was found for Gürpınar. Risk priorities for buildings in all districts were also determined via rapid seismic assessment for reinforced-concrete and masonry buildings in this study.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제27권4호
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• pp.303-315
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• 2024

This study proposes a comprehensive methodology for estimating accumulative damage of bridge structures under multiple seismic excitations, in the framework of site-specific probabilistic hazard analysis. Specifically, a typical earthquake-prone region in China is chosen to perform probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) to find the mean annual rate (MAR) of ground motion intensity at a specific level, based on which, a mass of ground motion observations is selected to construct random earthquake sequences with various number of shocks. Then, nonlinear time history analysis is implemented on the finite element (FE) model of a RC girder bridge at the site of interest, to investigate structural responses under different earthquake sequences, and to develop predictive model for cumulative damage computation, in which, a scalar seismic intensity measure (IM) is adopted and its performance in damage prediction is discussed by an experimental column. Furthermore, a mathematic model is established to calculate occurrence probability of earthquakes with various number of shocks, based on PSHA and homogenous Poisson random process, and a modified cumulative damage indicator is proposed, accounting for probabilistic occurrence of various earthquake scenarios. At end, the applicability of the proposed methodology to main shock and aftershock scenarios is validated, and characteristics of damage accumulation under different multiple earthquake scenarios are discussed.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.83-100
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• 2005

This paper presents results from a study to extend a performance-based shearwall selection procedure to take into account the contributions of nonstructural finish materials (such as stucco and gypsum wallboard), construction quality issues, and their effects on the displacement performance of engineered wood shearwalls subject to seismic loading. Shearwall performance is evaluated in terms of peak displacements under seismic loading (characterized by a suite of ordinary ground motion records) considering different combinations of performance levels (drift limits) and seismic hazard. Shearwalls are analyzed using nonlinear dynamic time-history analysis with global assembly hysteretic parameters determined by fitting to actual shearwall test data. Peak displacement distributions, determined from sets of analyses using each of the ground motion records taken to characterize the seismic hazard, are postprocessed into performance curves, design charts, and fragility curves which can be used for risk-based design and assessment applications.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.56-63
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• 1995

Two methods of the numerical method of CPQRA(Chemical Process Quantitative Risk Analysis) and the manual method of IAEA(International Atomic Energy Agency) were used to estimate the individual risk and societal risk around the chemical plant. Where, the CPQRA is introduced to verify the theoritical background of the manual of international atomic energy agency. The Gaussian plume model which has a weather stability class D with velocity of 5m/s was applied to calculate dispersion of hazard material. Also, 8-point method was employed to the effects of accidents for wind distribution. Furthermore, historical record, FTA(Fault Tree Analysis) and ETA(Event Tree Analysis) were used to estimate the probability or frequency of accidents. Eventually, the individual risk shows isorisk contour and the societal risk shows F-N curve around hazard facility, especially in chemical plants. Caulculated results, which both individual and societal risk, by using IAEA manual show simillar results to those of calculation by numerical method of CPQRA.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.125-144
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• 2015

This paper presents the probabilistic seismic microzonation of densely populated Kolkata city, situated on the world's largest delta island with very soft alluvial soil deposit. At first probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Kolkata city was carried out at bedrock level and then ground motion amplification due to sedimentary deposit was computed using one dimensional (1D) wave propagation analysis SHAKE2000. Different maps like fundamental frequency, amplification at fundamental frequency, peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), peak ground displacement (PGD), maximum response spectral acceleration at different time period bands are developed for variety of end users, structural and geotechnical engineers, land use planners, emergency managers and awareness of general public. The probabilistically predicted PGA at bedrock level is 0.12 g for 50% exceedance in 50 years and maximum PGA at surface level it varies from 0.095 g to 0.18 g for same probability of exceedance. The scenario of simulated ground motion revealed that Kolkata city is very much prone to damage during earthquake.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.23-35
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• 2007

Present time there are many risk analysis method in the world. A hazard is an exposure that has the potential to induce and adverse event. Risk is the probability of an adverse event given exposure to hazard. The evaluation of scientific information on the hazardous properties of environmental agents and the extent of exposure to these agents. But operation risk analysis method is not enough for manufacturing industry even if it is existence, it will be separated to improve Safety. In this paper, I will develop the AHP Weighted operation risk analysis method to improve Safety.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제23권1호
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• pp.75-90
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• 2016

A probabilistic approach that combines structural demand hazard analysis with cumulative damage assessment is presented and applied to a steel tower of a wind turbine. The study presents the step by step procedure to compare the reliability over time of the structure subjected to fatigue, assuming: a) a binomial Weibull annual wind speed, and b) a traditional Weibull probability distribution function (PDF). The probabilistic analysis involves the calculation of force time simulated histories, fatigue analysis at the steel tower base, wind hazard curves and structural fragility curves. Differences in the structural reliability over time depending on the wind speed PDF assumed are found, and recommendations about selecting a real PDF are given.