• Title/Summary/Keyword: hazard function

Search Result 408, Processing Time 0.023 seconds

Annual Loss Probability Estimation of Steel Moment-Resisting Frames(SMRFs) using Seismic Fragility Analysis (지진취약도를 통한 철골모멘트골조의 연간 손실 평가)

  • Jun, Saemee;Shin, Dong-Hyeon;Kim, Hyung-Joon
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
    • /
    • v.27 no.6
    • /
    • pp.517-524
    • /
    • 2014
  • The ultimate goal of seismic design is to reduce the probable losses or damages occurred during an expected earthquake event. To achieve this goal, this study represents a procedure that can estimate annual loss probability of a structure damaged by strong ground motion. First of all, probabilistic seismic performance assessment should be performed using seismic fragility analyses that are presented by a cumulative distribution function of the probability in each exceedance structural damage state. A seismic hazard curve is then derived from an annual frequency of exccedance per each ground motion intensity. An annual loss probability function is combined with seismic fragility analysis results and seismic hazard curves. In this paper, annual loss probabilities are estimated by the structural fragility curve of steel moment-resisting frames(SMRFs) in San Francisco Bay, USA, and are compared with loss estimation results obtained from the HAZUS methodology. It is investigated from the comparison that seismic losses of the SMRFs calculated from the HAZUS method are conservatively estimated. The procedure presented in this study could be effectively used for future studies related with structural seismic performance assessment and annual loss probability estimation.

A Study on the Characteristics of Software Reliability Model Using Exponential-Exponential Life Distribution (수명분포가 지수화-지수분포를 따르는 소프트웨어 신뢰모형 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hee Cheul;Moon, Song Chul
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
    • /
    • v.27 no.3
    • /
    • pp.69-75
    • /
    • 2020
  • In this paper, we applied the shape parameters of the exponentialized exponential life distribution widely used in the field of software reliability, and compared the reliability properties of the software using the non-homogeneous Poisson process in finite failure. In addition, the average value function is also a non-decreasing form. In the case of the larger the shape parameter, the smaller the estimated error in predicting the predicted value in comparison with the true value, so it can be regarded as an efficient model in terms of relative accuracy. Also, in the larger the shape parameter, the larger the estimated value of the coefficient of determination, which can be regarded as an efficient model in terms of suitability. So. the larger the shape parameter model can be regarded as an efficient model in terms of goodness-of-fit. In the form of the reliability function, it gradually appears as a non-increasing pattern and the higher the shape parameter, the lower it is as the mission time elapses. Through this study, software operators can use the pattern of mean square error, mean value, and hazard function as a basic guideline for exploring software failures.

The Assessing Comparative Study for Statistical Process Control of Software Reliability Model Based on Rayleigh and Burr Type (Rayleigh형과 Burr형 NHPP 소프트웨어 신뢰모형에 관한 통계적 공정관리 접근방법 비교연구)

  • Kim, Hee Cheul
    • Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
    • /
    • v.10 no.2
    • /
    • pp.1-11
    • /
    • 2014
  • Software reliability in the software development process is an important issue. Software process improvement helps in finishing with reliable software product. In this field, SPC (Statistical process control) is a method of process management through application of statistical analysis, which involves and includes the defining, measuring, controlling, and improving of the processes. The proposed process involves evaluation of the parameter of the mean value function and hence the values of the mean value function at various inter failure times to develop relevant time control chart. In this paper, was proposed a control mechanism, based on time between failures observations using Rayleigh and Burr distribution property, which is based on Non Homogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP). In this study, the proposed model is reliable in terms of hazard function, because it is more efficient in this area can be used as an alternative to the existing model. Through this study, software developers are considered by the various intended functions, prior knowledge of the software to identify failure modes to feed to some extent shall be able to help.

A Comparative Study of the Frequency Ratio and Evidential Belief Function Models for Landslide Susceptibility Mapping

  • Yoo, Youngwoo;Baek, Taekyung;Kim, Jinsoo;Park, Soyoung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
    • /
    • v.34 no.6
    • /
    • pp.597-607
    • /
    • 2016
  • The goal of this study was to analyze landslide susceptibility using two different models and compare the results. For this purpose, a landslide inventory map was produced from a field survey, and the inventory was divided into two groups for training and validation, respectively. Sixteen landslide conditioning factors were considered. The relationships between landslide occurrence and landslide conditioning factors were analyzed using the FR (Frequency Ratio) and EBF (Evidential Belief Function) models. The LSI (Landslide Susceptibility Index) maps that were produced were validated using the ROC (Relative Operating Characteristics) curve and the SCAI (Seed Cell Area Index). The AUC (Area under the ROC Curve) values of the FR and EBF LSI maps were 80.6% and 79.5%, with prediction accuracies of 72.7% and 71.8%, respectively. Additionally, in the low and very low susceptibility zones, the FR LSI map had higher SCAI values compared to the EBF LSI map, as high as 0.47%p. These results indicate that both models were reasonably accurate, however that the FR LSI map had a slightly higher accuracy for landslide susceptibility mapping in the study area.

Risk Assessment for Toluene Diisocyanate and Respiratory Disease Human Studies

  • PARK, Robert M.
    • Safety and Health at Work
    • /
    • v.12 no.2
    • /
    • pp.174-183
    • /
    • 2021
  • Background: Toluene diisocyanate (TDI) is a highly reactive chemical that causes sensitization and has also been associated with increased lung cancer. A risk assessment was conducted based on occupational epidemiologic estimates for several health outcomes. Methods: Exposure and outcome details were extracted from published studies and a NIOSH Health Hazard Evaluation for new onset asthma, pulmonary function measurements, symptom prevalence, and mortality from lung cancer and respiratory disease. Summary exposure-response estimates were calculated taking into account relative precision and possible survivor selection effects. Attributable incidence of sensitization was estimated as were annual proportional losses of pulmonary function. Excess lifetime risks and benchmark doses were calculated. Results: Respiratory outcomes exhibited strong survivor bias. Asthma/sensitization exposure response decreased with increasing facility-average TDI air concentration as did TDI-associated pulmonary impairment. In a mortality cohort where mean employment duration was less than 1 year, survivor bias pre-empted estimation of lung cancer and respiratory disease exposure response. Conclusion: Controlling for survivor bias and assuming a linear dose-response with facility-average TDI concentrations, excess lifetime risks exceeding one per thousand occurred at about 2 ppt TDI for sensitization and respiratory impairment. Under alternate assumptions regarding stationary and cumulative effects, one per thousand excess risks were estimated at TDI concentrations of 10 - 30 ppt. The unexplained reported excess mortality from lung cancer and other lung diseases, if attributable to TDI or associated emissions, could represent a lifetime risk comparable to that of sensitization.

Relationship between Early Postoperative Renal Scintigraphy and Long-term Transplant Survival (신 이식 직후 신장 스캔 소견과 이식신 장기 생존의 관계)

  • So, Young;Lee, Kang-Wook;Shin, Young-Tai;Ahn, Moon-Sang;Bae, Jin-Sun;Sul, Chong-Koo;Jung, In-Mok
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
    • /
    • v.35 no.4
    • /
    • pp.251-257
    • /
    • 2001
  • Purpose: We investigated the possibility of early postoperative Tc-99m DTPA scintigraphy in predicting long-term renal transplant survival. Materials and Methods: 64 living donor (LD) grafts were divided into two groups according to the graft function on early post-operative renal scintigraphy. Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazard model. Chi-square test was performed to evaluate the difference in the frequency of acute rejection. Results: Cumulative renal transplant survival was decreased in 11 patients with abnormal renal scintigraphy, but it was not statistically significant. Decreased graft function on early post-operative renal scintigraphy was not a predictor of long-term graft survival. The frequency of acute rejection was higher in abnormal scintigraphy group, and the difference was statistically significant. Conclusion: Decreased graft function on early post-operative renal scintigraphy has no direct effect on long-term renal transplant survival in LD transplantation. But it may have an indirect elect through increasing the frequency of acute rejection.

  • PDF

The Comprehensive Proportional Hazards Model Incorporating Time-dependent Covariates for Water Pipes (상수관로에 대한 시간종속형 공변수를 포함한 포괄적 비례위험모형)

  • Park, Su-Wan
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.42 no.6
    • /
    • pp.445-455
    • /
    • 2009
  • In this paper proportional hazards models for the first through seventh break of 150 mm cast iron pipes in a case study area are established. During the modeling process the assumption of the proportional hazards for covariates on the hazards is examined to include the time-dependent covariate terms in the models. As a result, the pipe material/joint type and the number of customers are modeled as time-dependent for the first failure, and for the second failure only the number of customers is modeled as time-dependent. From the analysis on the baseline hazard functions the failure hazards are found to be generally increasing for the first and second failure, while the hazards of the third break and beyond showed a form of a bath-tub. Furthermore, the changes in the baseline hazard rates according to the time and number of break reflect that the general condition of the pipes is deteriorating. The factors causing pipe break and their effects are analyzed based on the estimated regression coefficients and their hazard ratios, and the constructed models are verified using the deviance residuals of the models.

Evaluation of Blue Light Hazards in LED Lightings (LED 조명에 대한 청색광 위험 평가)

  • Jung, Myoung Hoon;Yang, Seok-Jun;Yuk, Ju Sung;Oh, Sang-Young;Kim, Chang-Jin;Lyu, Jungmook;Choi, Eun Jung
    • Journal of Korean Ophthalmic Optics Society
    • /
    • v.20 no.3
    • /
    • pp.293-300
    • /
    • 2015
  • Purpose: To evaluate blue light hazards of LED lightings in an optical store with blue light radiance used as the quantitative indicators of photobiological hazard. Methods: The spectral radiance of each LED lightings was measured, and blue-light radiance and the corresponding maximum exposure time were calculated. Then each LED lighting was classified according to the risk group from IEC 62471 standard. Results: The yellow LED lightings used in showcases and white LED lightings used on ceilings and logo were classified into risk group RG0. But the white LED lightings used on showcases were classified into risk group RG1. The blue light radiances of white LED lightings used in showcases are dozens of times larger than that of fluorescent lamp. Conclusions: Using the value of the blue light radiance could quantitatively express the blue light hazard to various lightings. It was confirmed that white LED lightings for the showcases had high blue light hazards because of their high luminance and color temperature. Therefore, when replacing lightings in optical shop it is necessary to select the appropriate brightness and color temperature for eye health in the long term.

Clinical Outcome in Gamma Knife Radiosurgery for Metastatic Brain Tumors from the Primary Breast Cancer : Prognostic Factors in Local Treatment Failure and Survival

  • Choi, Seung Won;Kwon, Do Hoon;Kim, Chang Jin
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
    • /
    • v.54 no.4
    • /
    • pp.329-335
    • /
    • 2013
  • Objective : Brain metastases in primary breast cancer patients are considerable sources of morbidity and mortality. Gamma knife radiosurgery (GKRS) has gained popularity as an up-front therapy in treating such metastases over traditional radiation therapy due to better neurocognitive function preservation. The aim of this study was to clarify the prognostic factors for local tumor control and survival in radiosurgery for brain metastases from primary breast cancer. Methods : From March 2001 to May 2011, 124 women with metastatic brain lesions originating from a primary breast cancer underwent GKRS at a tertiary medical center in Seoul, Korea. All patients had radiosurgery as a primary treatment or salvage therapy. We retrospectively reviewed their clinical outcomes and radiological responses. The end point of this study was the date of patient's death or the last follow-up examination. Results : In total, 106 patients (268 lesions) were available for follow-up imaging. The median follow-up time was 7.5 months. The mean treated tumor volume at the time of GKRS was 6273 $mm^3$ (range, 4.5-27745 mm3) and the median dose delivered to the tumor margin was 22 Gy (range, 20-25 Gy). Local recurrence was assessed in 86 patients (216 lesions) and found to have occurred in 36 patients (83 lesions, 38.6%) with a median time of 6 months (range, 4-16 months). A treated tumor volume >5000 $mm^3$ was significantly correlated with poor local tumor control through a multivariate analysis (hazard risk=7.091, p=0.01). Overall survival was 79.9%, 48.3%, and 15.3% at 6, 12, and 24 months, respectively. The median overall survival was 11 months after GKRS (range, 6 days-113 months). Multivariate analysis showed that the pre-GKRS Karnofsky performance status, leptomeningeal seeding prior to initial GKRS, and multiple metastatic lesions were significant prognostic factors for reduced overall survival (hazard risk=1.94, p=0.001, hazard risk=7.13, p<0.001, and hazard risk=1.46, p=0.046, respectively). Conclusion : GKRS has shown to be an effective and safe treatment modality for treating brain metastases of primary breast cancer. Most metastatic brain lesions initially respond to GKRS, though, many patients have further CNS progression in subsequent periods. Patients with poor Karnofsky performance status and multiple metastatic lesions are at risk of CNS progression and poor survival, and a more frequent and strict surveillance protocol is suggested in such high-risk groups.

Integration and Decision Algorithm for Location-Based Road Hazardous Data Collected by Probe Vehicles (프로브 수집 위치기반 도로위험정보 통합 및 판단 알고리즘)

  • Chae, Chandle;Sim, HyeonJeong;Lee, Jonghoon
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
    • /
    • v.17 no.6
    • /
    • pp.173-184
    • /
    • 2018
  • As the portable traffic information collection system using probe vehicles spreads, it is becoming possible to collect road hazard information such as portholes, falling objects, and road surface freezing using in-vehicle sensors in addition to existing traffic information. In this study, we developed a integration and decision algorithm that integrates time and space in real time when multiple probe vehicles detect events such as road hazard information based on GPS coordinates. The core function of the algorithm is to determine whether the road hazard information generated at a specific point is the same point from the result of detecting multiple GPS probes with different GPS coordinates, Generating the data, (3) continuously determining whether the generated event data is valid, and (4) ending the event when the road hazard situation ends. For this purpose, the road risk information collected by the probe vehicle was processed in real time to achieve the conditional probability, and the validity of the event was verified by continuously updating the road risk information collected by the probe vehicle. It is considered that the developed hybrid processing algorithm can be applied to probe-based traffic information collection and event information processing such as C-ITS and autonomous driving car in the future.