• 대한전기학회논문지
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• 제34권10호
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• pp.389-398
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• 1985

Recently maximum power demand of our country has become to be under the great in fluence of electric cooling and air conditioning demand which are sensitive to weather conditions. This paper presents the technique and algorithm to forecast the long-term maximum power demand considering the characteristics of electric power and weather variable. By introducing a weather load model for forecasting long-term maximum power demand with the recent statistic data of power demand, annual maximum power demand is separated into two parts such as the base load component, affected little by weather, and the weather sensitive load component by means of multi-regression analysis method. And we derive the growth trend regression equations of above two components and their individual coefficients, the maximum power demand of each forecasting year can be forecasted with the sum of above two components. In this case we use the coincident dry bulb temperature as the weather variable at the occurence of one-day maximum power demand. As the growth trend regression equation we choose an exponential trend curve for the base load component, and real quadratic curve for the weather sensitive load component. The validity of the forecasting technique and algorithm proposed in this paper is proved by the case study for the present Korean power system.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제25권6호
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• pp.1481-1489
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• 2014

한국 프로야구 총 관중수 예측에 대해 기존의 선행 연구에서는 주로 자기회귀누적이동평균 모형이 사용되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 공변량을 고려한 자기회귀누적이동평균 모형과 성장곡선 모형을 이용하여 프로야구 관중 수에 대한 예측 모형을 제시하고 기존의 선행 연구 모형과 비교하고자 한다. 공변량을 이용한 모형을 사용함으로써 기존의 선행 연구 모형보다 보다 개선된 예측력을 얻을 수 있었다. 이는 통계적 자료분석에서 한 가지 방법보다는 다양한 방법을 시도한 후 비교, 논의를 통하여 자료를 가장 잘 설명해 줄 수 있는 최적 방법을 찾아야 한다는 사실을 확인할 수 있다.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제26권2호
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• pp.253-265
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• 2013

특정 정책이나 전략목표를 달성하는데 있어서 정부가 최종 목표에 직접 영향을 미치기는 어려워서 정책수단을 통해 간접적인 영향력만 발휘하게 되므로 최종 목표의 미래 동향을 예측할 수 있는 유용한 정보변수의 개발에 관심을 가지게 된다. 금리의 기간구조는 미래 경기 동향의 예측에 유용한 정보를 주는 것으로 알려져 있으나 이에 대한 연구는 아직 부족한 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 국내 장단기 금리차가 장기 시계에서 실질 성장의 누적변화를 유의하게 예측할 수 있는지 통계모형을 설정하여 분석해 보았다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.741-750
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• 2021

The budget deficit is closely related to expansionary fiscal policy as a fiscal instrument to encourage economic growth. This study aims to apply optimal control theory in the Keynesian macroeconomic model for the economy, so that optimal growth can be found. Macroeconomic variables include GDP, consumption, investment, exports, imports, and budget deficit as control variables. This study uses secondary data in the form of time series, the time period 1990 to 2018. Performing optimal control will result in optimal fiscal policy. The optimal determination is done through simulation, for the period 2019-2023. The discrete optimal control problem is to minimize the objective function in the form of a quadratic function against the deviation of the state variable and control variable from the target value and the optimal value. Meanwhile, the constraint is Keynes' macroeconomic model. The results showed that the optimal value of macroeconomic variables has a deviation from the target values consisting of: consumption, investment, exports, imports, GDP, and budget deficit. The largest deviation from the average during the simulation occurs in GDP, followed by investment, exports, and the budget deficit. Meanwhile, the lowest average deviation is found in imports.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권12호
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• pp.43-52
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• 2020

This paper examines how macroeconomic variables, such as interest rate differences, inflation, exchange rates, economic growth and external debt growth, affect capital flight in the ASEAN-8 countries. We apply a panel data model with fixed effect estimation for the data for eight countries from the period 1994 to 2018. We use the residual approach used by the World Bank to measure the value of capital flight. The results show that the interest rate differences, exchange rates, economic growth and foreign debt growth had a positive and significant effect on outward capital flight. A further implication of this finding is that the interest rate differences, exchange rate, economic growth and foreign debt growth are factors that trigger an increase in capital outflow in the ASEAN-8 countries. Nonetheless, inflation rate is not considered to be the main factor influencing capital flight, as average inflation in the ASEAN-8 countries remains relatively stable. This paper will be beneficial for policymakers in the ASEAN-8 countries and encourage them to constantly pay attention to these four variables, as they significantly influence capital flight, whereas they can disregard the impact of the inflation variable that is not significant in influencing capital flight.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권6호
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• pp.109-116
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• 2020

The study examines the nexus between financial development and economic growth in India during Q1: 1996 to Q3: 2018. This study employs time-series data of real GDP and ratio of broad money to GDP as a proxy for economic and financial development, respectively. The data are obtained from RBI database on the Indian economy. All variables are seasonally adjusted using X12-arima technique and expressed in natural logarithm form. Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) bound test has been used to check for cointegrating relationship of these two variables. Empirical findings suggest that, unlike in the short run, in the long run financial development does impact economic growth positively. Further, a symmetric effect of positive and negative components of financial development is found for the Indian economy, whereas the effect of control variable like exchange rate and trade openness is in consonance with common economic intuition. Exchange rate is in consonance with intuitive economic logic that a fall in exchange rate makes exports cheaper and increases the quantity of export, which improves the balance of payment and leads to a rise in aggregate demand, hence improves economic growth. This paper contributes to the existing literature on India by breaking down financial indicator into positive and negative components to examine the finance-growth relationship.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제20권7호
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• pp.2159-2166
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• 1996

The stochastic properties of variation in fatigue crack growth are important in reliability and stability of structures. In this study,the stochastic model for the variation of fatigue crack growth rate was proposed in consideration of nonhomogeneity of materials. For this model, experiments were ocnducted on 7075-T6 aluminum alloy under the constant stress intensity factor range. The variation of fatigue crack growth rate was expressed by random variables Z and r based on the variation of material coefficients C and m in the paris-Erodogan's equation. The distribution of fatigue life with respect to the stress intensity factor range was evaluated by the stochastic Markov chain model based on the Paris-Erdogan's equation. The merit of proposed model is that only a small number of test are required to determine this this function, and fatigue crack growth life is easily predicted at the given stress intensity factor range.

• Advances in nano research
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• 제3권3호
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• pp.143-168
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• 2015

Initiation of crack and its growth simulation requires accurate model of traction - separation law. Accurate modeling of traction-separation law remains always a great challenge. Atomistic simulations based prediction has great potential in arriving at accurate traction-separation law. The present paper is aimed at establishing a method to address the above problem. A method for traction-separation law prediction via utilizing atomistic simulations data has been proposed. In this direction, firstly, a simpler approach of common neighbor analysis (CNA) for the prediction of crack growth has been proposed and results have been compared with previously used approach of threshold potential energy. Next, a scheme for prediction of crack speed has been demonstrated based on the stable crack growth criteria. Also, an algorithm has been proposed that utilizes a variable relaxation time period for the computation of crack growth, accurate stress behavior, and traction-separation atomistic law. An understanding has been established for the generation of smoother traction-separation law (including the effect of free surface) from a huge amount of raw atomistic data. A new curve fit has also been proposed for predicting traction-separation data generated from the molecular dynamics simulations. The proposed traction-separation law has also been compared with the polynomial and exponential model used earlier for the prediction of traction-separation law for the bulk materials.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• 제20권5호
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• pp.748-753
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• 2007

Serum biochemical values were measured in blood samples collected from 8 fasted stags from both jugular and femoral veins at 18-day intervals during antler growth. Samples were analyzed for blood substrate, enzyme activity values, minerals and electrolyte. There were no significant differences in total protein, albumin, urea, creatinine, triglyceride, glucose or cholesterol concentration between veins or sampling dates. However, total-bilirubin concentration in the jugular vein on the casting date was three times higher than on the other sampling dates (p<0.05). There were no significant differences in alkaline phosphatase, aspartate aminotransferase, and alanine aminotransferase with progressing antler growth. The highest level of alkaline phosphatase concentration was on day 55 after casting. There were no significant differences in inorganic phosphorus, sodium and chloride concentration between jugular and femoral samples. Calcium concentration was significantly higher in the femoral vein on the cutting date (55 day) than in the jugular vein (p<0.05). There were few changes in serum biochemical values. However, some electrolytes and minerals had differences during antler growth. It is suggested that despite such a big event as antler growth, blood biochemical values are not variable if feeding conditions are consistently maintained as was the case in this study.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권11호
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• pp.203-212
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• 2021

Theoretically, economic growth necessitates financial liberalization. Thus, the current research examines the effect of financial liberalization on economic growth in emerging nations, with a particular focus on Egypt and Saudi Arabia. To determine this effect, the study employs a model that uses Gross Domestic Product growth as the dependent variable and the following macroeconomic variables as financial liberalization indices: Broad money as a percentage of GDP, Domestic bank credit to the private sector as a percentage of GDP, Monetary sector credit to the private sector as a percentage of GDP, Net inflows of foreign direct investment as a percentage of GDP. All data is annual data of Egypt and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for the period 1970-2018 obtained from the World Bank open data website. The empirical investigation employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The findings indicate that, after more than three decades of implementation, both countries' financial and external liberalization policies do not have a favorable effect on their economies' growth rates. Additionally, this study has led us to conclude that any financial liberalization policy in both countries must be preceded by the strengthening of these countries' financial development and institutional frameworks, as well as the achievement of macroeconomic stability.