• Title/Summary/Keyword: growth simulation

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Forecasting Model of Air Passenger Demand Using System Dynamics (시스템다이내믹스를 이용한 항공여객 수요예측에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hyung-Ho;Jeon, Jun-woo;Yeo, Gi-Tae
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.137-143
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    • 2018
  • Korea's air passenger traffic has been growing steadily. In this paper, we propose a forecasting model of air passenger demand to ascertain the growth trend of air passenger transportation performance in Korea. We conducted a simulation based on System Dynamics with the demand as a dependent variable, and international oil prices, GDP and exchange rates as exogenous variables. The accuracy of the model was verified using MAPE and $R^2$, and the proposed prediction model was verified as an accurate prediction model. As a result of the demand forecast, it is predicted that the air passenger demand in Korea will continue to grow, and the share of low cost carriers will increase sharply. The addition of the Korean transportation performance of foreign carriers in Korea and the transportation performance of Korean passengers due to the alliance of airlines will provide a more accurate forecast of passenger demand.

A Study on the necessity of development for the Curriculum related to Marine Transportation of Radioactive waste (방사성폐기물 해상운송과 관련된 교육과정 개발의 필요성에 대한 연구)

  • KIM, Jin-kwon;HONG, Jeong-Hyuk;KIM, Won-Wook;KIM, Jong-Kwan;LEE, Chang-Hee
    • Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.920-931
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    • 2017
  • Since the export of Korean-type APR 1400 in 2009 to the UAE, Korea has been achieved management performance, quality inspections, training, nuclear fuel exports for the nuclear power plant. Despite this apparent growth, there are lacking of the research on the marine transportation of radioactive waste. And the terrible accident at the Japan nuclear power plant in 2011 has caused another reconsideration such as emergency response training and plan, reinforcement of safety regulation. According to the Korean government aims to rebuild the appropriate regulation, training, education that is necessary in order to ensure the safety of marine transportation of radioactive waste. Therefore, this study analyzed the various problems identified by the team of experts for the radioactive waste and marine field, the investigation of relevant legal basis, the need for emergency response training for the person in charge of radioactive waste and suggested the simulation-based interactive curriculum during the process of safety verification related to the marine transport of mid- and low-level radioactive waste generated at the Yeon-ggwang nuclear power(Hanbit) plant in 2015.

Failure Probability Estimation of Flaw in CANDU Pressure Tube Considering the Dimensional Change (가동중 중수로 압력관의 외경과 두꼐 변화를 고려한 결함의 파손확률 예측)

  • Kwak, Sang-Log;Lee, Joon-Seong;Kim, Young-Jin;Park, Youn-Won
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.26 no.11
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    • pp.2305-2311
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    • 2002
  • The pressure tube is a major component of the CANDU reactor, which supports nuclear fuel bundle and heavy water coolant. Pressure tubes are installed horizontally inside the reactor and only selected samples are periodically examined during in-service inspection. In this respect, a probabilistic safety assessment method is more appropriate fur the assessment of overall pressure tube safety. The failure behavior of CANDU pressure tubes, however, is governed by delayed hydride cracking which is the major difference from pipings and reactor pressure vessels. Since the delayed hydride cracking has more widely distributed governing parameters, it is impossible to apply a general PFM methodology directly. In this paper, a PFM methodology for the safety assessment of CANDU pressure tubes is introduced by applying Monte Carlo simulation in determining failure probability Initial hydrogen concentration, flaw shape and depth, axial and radial crack growth rate and fracture toughness were considered as probabilistic variables. Parametric study has been done under the base of pressure tube dimension and hydride precipitation temperature in calculating failure probability. Unstable fracture and plastic collapse are used for the failure assessment. The estimated failure probability showed about three-order difference with changing dimensions of pressure tube.

Finite Element Simulation of Fracture Toughness Test (파괴인성시험의 유한요소 시뮬레이션)

  • Chu, Seok Jae;Liu, Conghao
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.491-496
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    • 2013
  • Finite element simulations of tensile tests were performed to determine the equivalent stress - equivalent plastic strain curves, critical equivalent stresses, and critical equivalent plastic strains. Then, the curves were used as inputs to finite element simulations of fracture toughness tests to determine the plane strain fracture toughness. The critical COD was taken as the COD when the equivalent plastic strain at the crack tip reached a critical value, and it was used as a crack growth criterion. The relationship between the critical COD and the critical equivalent plastic strain or the reduction of area was found. The relationship between the plane strain fracture toughness and the product of the critical equivalent stress and the critical equivalent plastic strain was also found.

Study on Algae Occurrence in Daecheong Reservoir (대청호의 조류발생 분석)

  • Cho, Wan Hee;Yum, Kyung Taek;Kim, Jin Soo;Ban, Yang Jin;Chung, Se Woong
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.367-380
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    • 2012
  • There are many long and round shape shores due to terrain characteristics in Daecheong reservoir. Therefore it is indicated different spatial distribution of algae every year since the stream is being regulated by these terrain characteristics and reservoir operation about inflow and outflow discharge. Also oversupply of nutrient salt from tributaries of Daecheong reservoir where pollutants were concentrated generates massive growth of algae and depending on hydrological, reservoir operation condition, those proliferated algae at the stagnant tributaries moves to the mainstream of Daecheong reservoir which could create problems of water quality. In this study, it was analyzed the tendency of algae generation by examining algae occurring status for the last 4 years since 2008, and implemented hydraulic analysis at Daecheong reservoir through numerical tracer simulation by applying 3-dimensional hydrodynamic model, ELCOM. Also it was implemented a quantitative analysis of causal relationship based on the algae generation tendency and hydraulic behavior at Daecheong reservoir. Through numerical tracer simulation in this study, it could be noticed the degree of spread of inflow indicated similar trend to the algae occurring status at Daecheong reservoir and verified the different tendency of algae generation in 2011 unlike previous year caused by the rise of water temperature.

Feasibility Analysis of Traffic Policy Alternatives for the Depreciation Effect Analysis of Automotive Exhaust Gas using Microscopic Simulation (미시적 시뮬레이션을 이용한 교통정책 대안별 자동차 배출가스 저감 효과 분석)

  • Seo, Im-Gi;Wang, Wi-Geol;NamGung, Mun;Lee, Byeong-Ju
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.89-97
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    • 2007
  • The car-dependent traffic system based on highly advanced industrialization and economic growth causes various urban problems including traffic jams, energy consumption, air pollution, noise, car accidents and other issues. Particularly in urban areas, air pollution from motor vehicles is worse than pollution from past industrialization. In this study, therefore, the authors grasped car exhaust reduction effects by using microsimulation and those traffic policies that could make cars flow smoothly, reducing the air pollution in urban areas through analysis on profitability. As a result, the weekday-based car using system has been found most effective as it does not need investment cost. However, this system may be socially unacceptable, as it requires the government to change driver behavior. Therefore, the government needs to first reach a consensus with the citizens regarding this system. This system will also be effective with other alternatives. As a follow-up study, the authors will research citizens' perceived impacts of car exhaust on air pollution through a study on preference and grasp the possibility of applying these study results to real traffic policies.

A SD approach to the ecosystems of Korean venture business

  • Lee, Myoung-Ho;Hoon Huh
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society for Simulation Conference
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    • 2001.10a
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    • pp.50-59
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    • 2001
  • Since 1998, government-led Korean venture business boom now proceeds into the stage of market-oriented venture business growth. At such a moment, this research is to clarify the relations between the Critical Success Factors of Korean venture businesses, based on domestic and foreign literature surveys and inquiry surveys over domestic venture capitalists. This research starts from the necessity to overcome the limits of the existing researches by uni-dimensional Korean venture businesses and to manifest the multi-dimensional relations between the success factors from the various viewpoints. And this research adopts System-Dynamics methodology to manifest and utilize relations among those factors, avoiding the existing metrical approaches. This research can be called a new approach to the current ecosystems of Korean venture in which whether venture businesses in Korea succeed is considered to depend on the list on the stock market. For this, this research implemented verification analysis through the simulations of each factor at various levels to build causality map which clarifies the causality of success factors of venture businesses through the System-Dynamics methodology and to utilize it as a way of support to decision-making of venture businesses. This research will be able to suggest the reactions depending on various internal and external situations. This research tried to manifest the causality map of each factor on the basis of inquiry surveys and literature surveys to clarify Feedback among each factor by the SD methodology and simulate it. This research will be a basis to establish the chance to bolster up the still fragile probing research into success factors of substructure of venture businesses through the suggestion of possibility as an efficient analysis framework via the verification of SD methodology and the utilization of results of this research.

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An Uplink Scheduling Algorithm for VoIP in IEEE 802.16d Systems (IEEE 802.160에서 상향링크 VoIP 스케줄링 알고리즘 방식 연구)

  • Kang, Min-Seok;Jang, Jae-Shin
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.87-91
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    • 2006
  • With the growth of the internet, the number of wireless internet users has increased continuously up to date. However, mobile communications could not support high speed transmission rate with cheap communication fee and wireless LAN has problems in providing terminal mobility and wide area connectivity, respectively. So the WMAN standard has been newly designed to make up for these limits. The initial 802.16 specification effectively offers a solution for providing fixed users with high speed wireless communication but it does not offer terminal mobility. So the 802.16d and 802.16e have been developed as the next generation solution that can support various PHY layer (SC, SCa, OFDM, OFDMA) and offer the terminal mobility. In this paper, we propose an effective uplink scheduling algorithm for VoIP with using UGS, and we show that our proposed algorithm is superior in view of average delay and management of uplink bandwidth to conventional rtPS algorithm and the scheme in reference, with using NS-2 network simulator.

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Local Oxidation of 4H-SiC using an Atomic Force Microscopy (원자현미경을 이용한 탄화규소 (SiC)의 국소산화)

  • Jo, Yeong-Deuk;Bahng, Wook;Kim, Sang-Cheol;Kim, Nam-Kyun;Koo, Sang-Mo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers
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    • v.22 no.8
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    • pp.632-636
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    • 2009
  • The local oxidation using an atomic force microscopy (AFM) is useful for Si-based fabrication of nanoscale structures and devices. SiC is a wide band-gap material that has advantages such as high-power, high-temperature and high-frequency in applications, and among several SiC polytypes, 4H-SiC is the most attractive polytype due to the high electron mobility. However, the AFM local oxidation of 4H-SiC for fabrication is still difficult, mainly due to the physical hardness and chemical inactivity of SiC. In this paper, we investigated the local oxidation of 4H-SiC surface using an AFM. We fabricated oxide patterns using a contact mode AFM with a Pt/Ir-coated Si tip (N-type, 0.01-0.025 ${\Omega}cm$) at room temperature, and the relative humidity ranged from 40 to 50 %. The height of the fabricated oxide pattern (1-3 nm) on SiC is similar to that of typically obtained on Si ($10^{15}^{\sim}10^{17}$ $cm^{-3}$). We perform the 2-D simulation to further analyze the electric field between the tip and the surface. We demonstrated that a specific electric field (4 ${\times}$ $10^7\;V/m$) and a doping concentration ($^{\sim}10^{17}$ $cm^{-3}$) is sufficient to switch on/off the growth of the local oxide on SiC.

Development and Validation of Reverberation Chamber Type Whole Body Exposure System fer Mobile Phone Frequency (이동전화 주파수에 대한 전자파 잔향실 형태의 전신 노출장치 개발 및 유효성 평가)

  • 정기범;고경배;도현정;백정기;정연춘;최재훈
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.291-300
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    • 2004
  • Due to the rapid growth of mobile communication services, many studies have been performed on the biological effects of EMF(Electromagnetic field) exposure. However, it is not easy to create the field uniformity in radio frequency. To overcome this difficulty, the electric field and SAR(Specific Absorption Rate) distribution is developed to measure the whole body exposure system. In this paper, we developed the whole body exposure system for in-vivo study utilizing reverberation chamber which has a high possibility of practical use by substituting previous the EMC chamber. The field uniformity in the test area of the designed reverberation chamber was satisfied by the simulation and measurement data. In animal study of the whole body exposure for a mouse, the results of FDTD simulation were compared with those of measurement to confirm SAR under the electromagnetic exposure. We analyze the electric field distribution in the interior of the reverberation chamber and treat these results in statistical manner. In the CDMA frequency band(PCS & Cellular band), an average value of the whole body SAR and local peak value for a experimental mouse were presented for various input power.