• 무역학회지
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• 제47권3호
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• pp.211-232
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• 2022

Due to the impact of the public health event COVID-19 epidemic, the Chinese futures market showed "Black Swan". This has brought the unpredictable into the economic environment with many commodities falling by the daily limit, while gold performed well and closed in the sunshine(Yan-Li and Rui Qian-Wang, 2020). Volatility is integral part of financial market. As an emerging market and a special precious metal, it is important to forecast return of gold futures price. This study selected data of the SHFE gold futures returns and conducted an empirical analysis based on the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-type model. Comparing the statistics of AIC, SC and H-QC, ARMA (12,9) model was selected as the best model. But serial correlation in the squared returns suggests conditional heteroskedasticity. Next part we established the autoregressive moving average ARMA-GARCH-type model to analysis whether Volatility Clustering and the leverage effect exist in the Chinese gold futures market. we consider three different distributions of innovation to explain fat-tailed features of financial returns. Additionally, the error degree and prediction results of different models were evaluated in terms of mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Theil inequality coefficient(TIC) and root mean-squared error (RMSE). The results show that the ARMA(12,9)-TGARCH(2,2) model under Student's t-distribution outperforms other models when predicting the Chinese gold futures return series.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제27권5호
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• pp.167-198
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• 2023

Purpose - This paper aims to compare and analyze the co-movements and information spillover effects between the international commodity futures markets and the South Korean stock markets during the COVID-19 and the 2008 financial crises. Design/methodology - The DCC-GARCH model is used in the co-movements analysis. In contrast, the BEKK-GARCH model is used to evaluate information spillover effects. The statistical data used is from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2022. It comprises the Korea Composite Stock Price Index data and daily international commodity futures prices of natural gas, West Texas Intermediate crude oil, gold, silver, copper, nickel, soybean, and wheat. Findings - The results of the co-movement analysis were as follows: First, it was shown that the co-movements between the international commodity futures markets and the South Korean stock markets were temporarily strengthened when the COVID-19 and 2008 financial crises occurred. Second, the South Korean stock markets were shown to have high correlations with the copper, nickel, and crude oil futures markets. The results of the information spillover effects analysis are as follows: First, before the 2008 financial crisis, four commodity futures markets (natural gas, gold, copper, and wheat) were shown to be in two-way leading relationships with the South Korean stock markets. In contrast, seven commodity futures markets, except for the natural gas futures market, were shown to be in two-way leading relationships with the South Korean stock markets after the financial crisis. Second, before the COVID-19 crisis, most international commodity futures markets, excluding natural gas and crude oil future markets, were shown to have led the South Korean stock markets in one direction. Third, it was revealed that after the COVID-19 crisis, the connections between the South Korean stock markets and the international commodity futures markets, except for natural gas, crude oil, and gold, were completely severed. Originality/value - Useful information for portfolio strategy establishment can be provided to investors through the results of this study. In addition, it is judged that financial policy authorities can utilize the results as data for efficient regulation of the financial market and policy establishment.

• 정보보호학회논문지
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.849-861
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• 2015

온라인 게임의 인기가 증가하면서 희소성 있는 재화를 현금으로 바꾸는 RMT (Real Money Trade) 유저들이 증가하였고 이를 전문적으로 이용하는 게임 내 범죄 집단인 GFG (Gold Farming Group)이 나타났다. GFG는 게임재화를 수집하기 위해서 다수의 봇 계정이 필요한데, 이를 위해 명의 도용, 개인정보 유출 문제를 발생시키게 된다. 또한 현금거래를 유발시켜 게임 내 경제의 형평성을 파괴하고, 계정 도용, 아이템 탈취를 유발 시킨다. 따라서 GFG를 제거 및 차단하는 일은 사회적, 게임 내 관점에서 중요한 문제이다. 본 논문은 기존의 판매자 관점의 탐지가 아닌 수요공급의 원칙에 따라 현금거래 구매자를 탐지하는 근본적인 방안을 제시하였다. 실제 게임 데이터를 분석하여 두 가지의 RMT 형태를 발견하였고, 구매자 탐지의 재현율이 98%이상을 보일 수 있었다.

• 무역학회지
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• 제47권4호
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• pp.53-68
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• 2022

It has great significance to estimate CIF-FOB margins of international trade. It certainly helps develop statistics on transport costs of international trade and provides basic data for econometric analysis of transport costs. It also contributes much to our standing the correlation between the margins and trade partners' geographical distance as well as one between the margins and trading products. However, the quality issue of international trade statistics renders it very difficult to derive trustworthy CIF-FOB margin estimates. Utilizing various analytical approaches, this study intended to acquire credible estimates of CIF-FOB margins for Korea's total imports and for country/product specific imports data. Major findings are as follows. First, the average of CIF-FOB margins of Korea's total imports is 7.3% and is generally declining. Second, country level analysis provides credible estimates for CIF-FOB margins of Korea's imports from four partners (Japan, the US, Australia, and Brazil). The differences in margins among these four countries are caused by geographical distance and characteristics of traded products. Third, product level analysis reveals that the margins of gold and passenger vehicles are fairly low while those of primary products tend to be high.

• 한국전자거래학회지
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• 제23권3호
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• pp.13-32
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• 2018

암호화폐는 익명성, 분권성, 공유성, 다중 분산원장 기재원리와 블록체인 기술의 특성을 지니고 있어 간편 신속 저렴성으로 지급결제수단의 기능을 수행하여 왔다. 비트코인은 비중앙 기관이 채굴 공급주체이고, 공급량이 제한되어 있고, 일부 화폐적인 기능을 수행하여서, 금과 매우 유사한 특성을 가지고 있다. 본고는 물가와 자본시장에 대해서 헷지와 안전처 기능과 관련하여 비트코인과 금에 대해서 정량적으로, 2010. 7. 20.~2017. 12. 27., 1943 일별 자료에 대해 비대칭적 다변량 벡터 GARCH 모형으로 분석하였다. 금에서는 물가(CPI), 주식(SP500), 환율(UKUS, KOUS)에서 강한 헷지와 안전처 기능이 추정되었다. 비트코인에서는 약한 헷지와 안전처 기능이 존재하는 것으로 추정되었다. 변동성 식에서는 미국과 한국의 인플레이션은 비트코인과 금에 대해 유의하지 않은 것으로 추정되었다. 본고는 공평성 확보를 위해 익명성의 불투명성을 해소하고, 시대의 변화에 부응하고 생동하는 헌법관에 기초하여 법의 흠결 보완이 이루어져야 함을 밝히고 있다. 유관기관에게 등록 보고 설명 준법감시 의무와 권한의 명확화를 기하고, 세제와 금융 관련 법규를 보완 개정하는 것이 이용자 보호의 강화와 전자거래의 발전에 도움이 됨을 시사하고 있다. 이와 더불어 반드시 투자자의 세심한 리스크 관리가 지속적으로 이루어져야 할 것이다.

• Acta Via Serica
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.95-124
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• 2023

Over the past 30 years, intense archaeological research has revealed a great increase in regional and transregional object mobility across the South China Sea during its Iron Age (500 BCE to 500 CE). Some objects had moved from a long distance: intaglios, seals, fine ceramic, glass containers, and gold coins of Mediterranean origin; and large bronzes, mirrors, and lacquerware connected to central East Asia. This evidence has given rise to larger-scale explanations, among which the most prominent has been the growth of (maritime) Silk Road trade. Scholars are divided as to whether the Silk Road is a suitable concept, with some emphasizing its orientalist overtones and colonial baggage and others finding it useful for the investigation of interregional networks trading in silk and other commodities. This paper explores how productive the Silk Road concept or metaphor really is for understanding transregional connectivity and social change in Iron Age Southeast Asia.

• 한국게임학회 논문지
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• 제7권4호
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• pp.125-134
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• 2007

아이템 거래의 속성에 대해서는 그동안 많은 연구가 진행되어 왔으나, 막상 아이템 거래의 발생 원인에 대해서는 설문조사 등의 방법만 수행되어 왔고, 온라인 게임 내에서의 경제 분석 에 의한 연구는 이루어지지 못하였다. 따라서 본 연구는 온라인 게임 내에서의 아이템 수요와 공급에 대해 역할참석, 직접관찰, 관련자 면담 등의 방법을 사용하여 게임 내에서의 아이템 거래의 원인을 분석하였다. 분석 결과 아이템 거래가 일반 게이머들 사이에서 차지하는 비중은 크지 않으며, 인챈트를 즐기는 소수의 게이머, 혈전 및 공성전을 수행하는 사람들 사이에서 중점적으로 발생한다. 또 주된 아이템 공급자는 일반게이머가 아니라 작업장이다. 즉 아이템 거래는 소량으로 적은 액수를 거래하는 다수의 게이머와, 대량으로 많은 액수를 거래하는 소수의 매니아 게이머에 의해서 발생한다. 이러한 아이템 거래의 소수 집중적 속성을 파악하는 것은 아이템 거래와 관련된 제반 정책 및 사회적 영향을 검토하는 데에 기반 지식으로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.171-179
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• 2021

In the international markets, financial variables can be volatile and may affect each other, especially in the crisis times. COVID-19, which began in China in 2019 and spread to many countries of the world, created a crisis not only in the global health system but also in the international financial markets and economy. The purpose of this study is to analyze the contagious effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the volatility of selected financial variables such as Bitcoin, gold, oil price, and exchange rates and the connections between the volatilities of these variables during the pandemic. For this aim, we use the ARMA-EGARCH model to measure the impact of volatility and shocks. In other words, it is aimed to measure whether the impact of the shock on the financial variables of the contagiousness of the epidemic is also transmitted to the markets. The data was collected from secondary and daily data from September 2th 2019 to December 20th, 2020. It can be said that the findings obtained have statistically significant effects on the conditional variability of the variables. Therefore, there are findings that the shocks in the market are contaminated with each other.

• Acta Via Serica
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.53-78
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• 2023

The paper presents some new results illustrating some developments related to the concept of the Silk Road and subsequent methodological reflections. New laboratory results of scientific analyses of plants, minerals, and human remains in combination with more conventional methods of research contribute to a better understanding of the multidirectionality of exchanges in Pre- and Protohistory. Unsuspected long-distance transfers of items, especially of metals (tin) and biological materials (plants, pathogens, etc.) are discovered. Adding ancient DNA and petroglyphs to the vexed question of the Indo-European migrations across Eurasia complexifies the familiar linguistic, historical, and archaeological research landscape. Recent excavations show the impact of the adoption of artistic elements adapted from the Achaemenid arts, far in the steppe world, and up to China. Multidirectional (including North-South lanes) and multidisciplinary approaches leave space and hope for more rigorous scientific modelizations for the archaeology of Eurasia and the Silk Road.

• 복식문화연구
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• 제11권6호
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• pp.826-834
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• 2003

This research is to reveal an aspect of costume culture and a phase of the cloths in the relationship of the Chosun dynasty, by considering the exported goods from the Chosun dynasty of the trading goods derived by the trade diplomacy between the two countries in the Chosun dynasty-Japan relationship in the 15th and 16th. The research findings, by analyzing various literatures and related documents, follow. The research results are as follow. The exchange was the form of presenting a return present in return for a tribute to the Chosun dynasty from the Japanese envoy, which has a polycentric characteristic. Pusanpo, Naipo, and Yumpo were designated as the open ports, which played a pivotal role in the Korea-Japan exchange. The imported goods were somok, peppers, drug-stuffs, gold, bronze, sulfur, etc. The exported goods were books and cloths, such as hemp cloths, cotton cloths, silk, etc. The majority of exported goods was cloths, particularly cotton cloths. Meanwhile, in the 15th and the 16th century, with expanding of active trade towards Japan, the amount of export increased rapidly. As a result of the increase of exporting cotton cloths, the raw cottons production was increased and cotton cloth manufacturing was developed. However, it also expanded a dual structure of cotton cloths between the cotton cloths for exports and the cotton cloths for domestic markets. This dual structure of cotton cloth was lead to the deterioration of cotton cloths and had an effect on the price increases of domestic markets.